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+---- Thread: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? (/thread-923477.html)
CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - BobcatEngineer - 06-10-2021 01:35 PM
Quote:The College Football Playoff management committee will consider expanding to a 12-team format when it meets in Chicago next week, marking the first step in what could be another historic change for the sport's postseason.
The proposal, a copy of which was obtained by ESPN, calls for the bracket to include the six highest-ranked conference champions and the six remaining highest-ranked teams as determined by the CFP selection committee.
ESPN
I'm liking this proposal.
It's a little bit different from the Yahoo Sports article that came out a few days ago that basically said the Conference Champions for all the Power 5 schools get auto bids, then the highest ranked G5 school, then six at-large bids.
With the way the ESPN article lays it out, the six highest ranked conference champs get the auto bids plus six at-large. It still sounds like for the MAC to field a team in the CFP, we'd have to be the highest ranked G5 team as I don't know how often MAC schools finish the season with a higher ranking than any of the P5 champs.
MAC historians, was there ever a time a MAC school finished ranked higher than a P5 champ?
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Schadenfreude - 06-10-2021 02:45 PM
(06-10-2021 01:35 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote: MAC historians, was there ever a time a MAC school finished ranked higher than a P5 champ?
If there are six conference champions guaranteed spots, why would the MAC champion have to finish higher than a P5 champ?
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - BobcatEngineer - 06-10-2021 03:10 PM
(06-10-2021 02:45 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:(06-10-2021 01:35 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote: MAC historians, was there ever a time a MAC school finished ranked higher than a P5 champ?
If there are six conference champions guaranteed spots, why would the MAC champion have to finish higher than a P5 champ?
An earlier article I read on Yahoo Sports speculated that there would be auto bids for the P5 conferences, plus one auto bid for the highest ranked G5 champion.
The ESPN article I have linked in the OP just speculates that the 6 highest ranked conference champs will get the auto bids. So in theory, there could be a scenario where a P5 champ could miss out on an auto bid.
Hypothetically, you could have a scenario where UCF in the AAC finishes ranked #12, an undefeated MAC school finishes ranked #14, and say the Big12 has a terrible year and their champ finishes #16.
In that case, you could see two G5 teams get an auto bid.
That said, that scenario seems to be extremely unlikely to play out. That's why I was curious if there was ever a time in which a MAC school finished the season with a higher rank than a P5 champ. I looked at the 2003 Miami team, but even in that year, all P5 champs finished ahead of Miami.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Motown Bronco - 06-10-2021 03:51 PM
It happened last year. Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina were both ranked higher than the PAC12 (USC) at season's end. Although 2020's rankings were pretty wonky throughout the disjointed season.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - MidnightBlueGold - 06-10-2021 03:55 PM
My initial thought is I'm happy with this proposal. Having the 6 highest rated conference champions (vs. the P5 conf champs and 1 Go5 champ) leaves the door open for multiple Go5 teams to make the playoffs.
However, I doubt that 1) the P5 conferences agree to this, and/or 2) the CFP committee would allow 2 Go5 champions to be rated higher than a P5 champ.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Motown Bronco - 06-10-2021 04:08 PM
Quote:The first-round games would take place on campus sometime during the two-week period following conference championship games.
One relatively minor drawback from a fan perspective: Unless you pull off that opening round win, you'll miss the Cotton Bowl (WMU) or Orange Bowl (NIU) type of experience, and instead trudge to an opposing school's on-campus stadium in what could be some very unpleasant weather.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Kit-Cat - 06-10-2021 05:34 PM
(06-10-2021 03:51 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote: It happened last year. Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina were both ranked higher than the PAC12 (USC) at season's end. Although 2020's rankings were pretty wonky throughout the disjointed season.
NIU did it a couple of times I thought over the ACC champion back in the BCS era.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Kit-Cat - 06-10-2021 06:08 PM
Every new system creates a new problem.
The 6-6 model takes the 6 highest rated conference champions. What do the other 4 conference champions then do considering its theoretically possible to be SEC, B1G, ACC, PAC.....all P5 members sitting on the outside.
They are talking about quarterfinal games in bowls for the first round. If a conference champ didn't make the playoff they will go to access bowl? Downside protection to guarantee at least an access bowl if they don't make the playoff? This would then imply that every conference champ (MAC) would have at least an access bowl.
The MAC champ will need to be ranked at least #10 to have a chance at a first round bye as one of the four highest conference champions. Independents are not permitted to have a bye and can be seeded no higher than #5.
The lowest possible CFP ranking for a MAC champ to be eligible for playoff is #72. They can be rated behind all the P5 and independents but as long as they are on top of the G5 conferences they'll get a playoff spot.
For the B1G champ they need at least #10 for the first round bye (figuring #4-#9 are at large) as the minimum. Lowest theoretical ranking to make the playoff is #74 if the entire SEC, ACC, CUSA, MAC, MWC and all the independents finish higher but that produces only 5 conference champions.
P5/G5 essentially will have the same access aside from the huge disparity in money and profile giving the P5 a natural advantage. Independents will need to be at least ranked #12 or higher (#10 or higher to feel relatively safe) if they want in.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Polish Hammer - 06-10-2021 06:36 PM
Funny how they never wanted a playoff and made one excuse after the next until they ran with it and realized it’s a gold mine. Now they want to expand it? Garbage! If you’re not one of the top 4 teams after the dust settles on the regular season you shouldn’t have a crack at the championship game and none of this is ever done to benefit the little guy (MAC).
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - epasnoopy - 06-10-2021 06:39 PM
Anything less than every conference champion getting a spot in the playoff is not good enough.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Bronco'14 - 06-10-2021 07:31 PM
12 is way too many.
I like 8.
The 5 P5 champs, the highest-ranked G5, & 2 at-larges.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - emu steve - 06-10-2021 08:16 PM
(06-10-2021 07:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: 12 is way too many.
I like 8.
The 5 P5 champs, the highest-ranked G5, & 2 at-larges.
I'm going to give you a big, NO.
If you have 8 teams, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, etc.
So Alabama is #1 and MAC is #8. Christians and lions. Who wants that. This is the #1/#16 in the NCAAs.
With 12 teams and 4 byes, #5 plays 12, #6 plays 11, etc. Most of these game could/should be competitive and if say #5 or #6 is caught napping, thinking of their next game, they could be gone.
MAC/AAC/SBC/C-USA have a fair chance of winning their first game and then having a 2nd game.
I would like the G5 conferences guaranteed TWO slots.
All of a sudden the G5 conference championship games are HUGE!!
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Kit-Cat - 06-10-2021 10:02 PM
(06-10-2021 08:16 PM)emu steve Wrote:(06-10-2021 07:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: 12 is way too many.
I like 8.
The 5 P5 champs, the highest-ranked G5, & 2 at-larges.
I'm going to give you a big, NO.
If you have 8 teams, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, etc.
So Alabama is #1 and MAC is #8. Christians and lions. Who wants that. This is the #1/#16 in the NCAAs.
With 12 teams and 4 byes, #5 plays 12, #6 plays 11, etc. Most of these game could/should be competitive and if say #5 or #6 is caught napping, thinking of their next game, they could be gone.
MAC/AAC/SBC/C-USA have a fair chance of winning their first game and then having a 2nd game.
I would like the G5 conferences guaranteed TWO slots.
All of a sudden the G5 conference championship games are HUGE!!
With the 6-6 format a second G5 has a shot at getting in at #12 and very likely in at #10 regardless of what the other G5 champs do, for example if the AAC champ that year is #4 you can't get shut out from the playoff.
That is what always bothered me about the 5-1-2 is that the AAC tends to perform and play better schedule to the point where their champ would have a lock on the G5 autobid. Of course pending they didn't get raided again by realignment. You take Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF out of there and its just not the same conference.
MAC should see its per school pay day of the CFP money move from roughly 2 million per school to 5 million per once this deal is enacted. Fairly significant boost to the MAC budget and definitely another dagger into the crowd who wants the MAC to drop to FCS. No path to a national championship argument goes away too.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - BruceMcF - 06-11-2021 03:20 AM
(06-10-2021 06:39 PM)epasnoopy Wrote: Anything less than every conference champion getting a spot in the playoff is not good enough.
But turning the spot down because of that would be making the perfect the enemy of the improvement.
Notionally, this allows multiple Go5 champions to go (though in practice I feel confident that the committee won't actually allow that to happen).
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - epasnoopy - 06-11-2021 03:30 AM
72
(06-11-2021 03:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:(06-10-2021 06:39 PM)epasnoopy Wrote: Anything less than every conference champion getting a spot in the playoff is not good enough.
But turning the spot down because of that would be making the perfect the enemy of the improvement.
Notionally, this allows multiple Go5 champions to go (though in practice I feel confident that the committee won't actually allow that to happen).
We should just be grateful they throw the G5 some crumbs? Why are conference champions in every other college sport rewarded a spot in the playoffs except for college football?
When has a G5 ever been ranked in the top 5 of the college football playoff committee rankings? Without looking it up, I bet it is never. So first 5 spots automatically go to P5.
This proposal is not good enough.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - cmufanatic - 06-11-2021 05:57 AM
Problem is failed leadership. Why is MAC commish not hitting the airwaves saying this is unacceptable? Same with other G5 conferences. Every sport accept football conf champion gets a seat at the table, why not football? Because money and greed, thats all
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - emu steve - 06-11-2021 06:14 AM
(06-10-2021 10:02 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:(06-10-2021 08:16 PM)emu steve Wrote:(06-10-2021 07:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: 12 is way too many.
I like 8.
The 5 P5 champs, the highest-ranked G5, & 2 at-larges.
I'm going to give you a big, NO.
If you have 8 teams, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, etc.
So Alabama is #1 and MAC is #8. Christians and lions. Who wants that. This is the #1/#16 in the NCAAs.
With 12 teams and 4 byes, #5 plays 12, #6 plays 11, etc. Most of these game could/should be competitive and if say #5 or #6 is caught napping, thinking of their next game, they could be gone.
MAC/AAC/SBC/C-USA have a fair chance of winning their first game and then having a 2nd game.
I would like the G5 conferences guaranteed TWO slots.
All of a sudden the G5 conference championship games are HUGE!!
With the 6-6 format a second G5 has a shot at getting in at #12 and very likely in at #10 regardless of what the other G5 champs do, for example if the AAC champ that year is #4 you can't get shut out from the playoff.
That is what always bothered me about the 5-1-2 is that the AAC tends to perform and play better schedule to the point where their champ would have a lock on the G5 autobid. Of course pending they didn't get raided again by realignment. You take Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF out of there and its just not the same conference.
MAC should see its per school pay day of the CFP money move from roughly 2 million per school to 5 million per once this deal is enacted. Fairly significant boost to the MAC budget and definitely another dagger into the crowd who wants the MAC to drop to FCS. No path to a national championship argument goes away too.
I believe your dollar amounts are way off. I thought it was 1M or less per MAC school.
If I'm right, 1M going to ? Maybe 2 or 3M?
The big thing is that going to 12 increase the odds that a MAC team makes it many years.
What I love is that a recruit can go to a MAC school and have a chance to play in a CFP game. Matter of fact, a recruit going to say TOL may have a better chance than a recruit going to Illinois or Syracuse or Duke or Vanderbilt or... This is also true for say Boise State (better chance than those schools I listed).
In the P5 conference one can pencil in some probable names, e.g., OSU, AL, Clemson, etc. as high probability invites for their conference. That means 13 B1G schools hoping for a 2nd bid.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Kit-Cat - 06-11-2021 08:17 AM
(06-11-2021 06:14 AM)emu steve Wrote:(06-10-2021 10:02 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:(06-10-2021 08:16 PM)emu steve Wrote:(06-10-2021 07:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: 12 is way too many.
I like 8.
The 5 P5 champs, the highest-ranked G5, & 2 at-larges.
I'm going to give you a big, NO.
If you have 8 teams, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, etc.
So Alabama is #1 and MAC is #8. Christians and lions. Who wants that. This is the #1/#16 in the NCAAs.
With 12 teams and 4 byes, #5 plays 12, #6 plays 11, etc. Most of these game could/should be competitive and if say #5 or #6 is caught napping, thinking of their next game, they could be gone.
MAC/AAC/SBC/C-USA have a fair chance of winning their first game and then having a 2nd game.
I would like the G5 conferences guaranteed TWO slots.
All of a sudden the G5 conference championship games are HUGE!!
With the 6-6 format a second G5 has a shot at getting in at #12 and very likely in at #10 regardless of what the other G5 champs do, for example if the AAC champ that year is #4 you can't get shut out from the playoff.
That is what always bothered me about the 5-1-2 is that the AAC tends to perform and play better schedule to the point where their champ would have a lock on the G5 autobid. Of course pending they didn't get raided again by realignment. You take Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF out of there and its just not the same conference.
MAC should see its per school pay day of the CFP money move from roughly 2 million per school to 5 million per once this deal is enacted. Fairly significant boost to the MAC budget and definitely another dagger into the crowd who wants the MAC to drop to FCS. No path to a national championship argument goes away too.
I believe your dollar amounts are way off. I thought it was 1M or less per MAC school.
If I'm right, 1M going to ? Maybe 2 or 3M?
The G5 picked up 90 million last year. Divide it by 59 and that is 1.52 million but each school also gets 300k if they make the APR. On average then its 1.82 million per G5 school. If the new contract is worth 3x then 5.46 million per school which is enough to pay for the entire coaching staff at a MAC school.
https://businessofcollegesports.com/finance/college-football-playoff-payout-2020/
Numbers however are not in yet on the new arrangement. It could be 50 million base with 50 million per playoff appearance and 500k per school academic money. That would be just short of 5 million per school on a typical year but closer to 9 million if the MAC represents.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - Schadenfreude - 06-11-2021 08:46 AM
(06-11-2021 03:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:(06-10-2021 06:39 PM)epasnoopy Wrote: Anything less than every conference champion getting a spot in the playoff is not good enough.
But turning the spot down because of that would be making the perfect the enemy of the improvement.
The P5 sure isn't making this choice easy, though. The G5 would likely get one spot out of 12 in most years when most of us ideally think the G5 should be getting 5 spots out of 16, with automatic bids for all conferences.
If this is the next iteration, it's difficult to for see to see how we get from this 1/12 model, with token G5 representation, to a full access 5/16 model. It is difficult to imagine incentives lining up for the P5 to want to do that next expansion.
RE: CFP to Expand to 12 Teams? - pvk75 - 06-11-2021 08:52 AM
IMO, what drove this is the next-in-line P5s getting tired of being left out of the CFP, being relegated to the other NY6 games and some other "big" bowls, and the PAC 12 getting nowhere.
I also suspect the anti-trust lawyers had a look at it, which is why the 6 autobids belong to the "6 highest ranking conference champions" but no one is named. That "6" means an autobid for the best G5 conference champion without actually saying so, since there are only 5 P5 champions. That takes care of any anti-trust moves by the G5.
The next-in-line P5s, Notre Dame and BYU have six at-large slots to go for. ND and BYU don't have CCGs, so that takes pressure off them to play a 13th game or join a conference. Also probably the reason for the on-campus first round. Yes, it LOOKS like another G5 can get in, but do you honstly see a 9-3 or 10-2 P5 getting left out for a G5 at 11-1? Strength-of-schedule is automatic for a P5.
No way in hell does the P5 want all 10 conference champions in a playoff, because that automatically elevates the G5 to the same status. Why should the P5 do for the G5 what the G5 has not done for itself? Just because they're technically all FBS? (Insert hysterical laughter here.) Besides, the P5s got their autonomy from the NCAA, and they're not enlarging the club.
What is "right" and "just" is not the same thing as what is "real."