(05-29-2021 10:17 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  It's not a bad idea overall, but the teams that buy the shell of the conference would not have access to CFP funds distribution, G5 NY6 Bowl, and unless ESPN hooks it up with a bowl pool invite, no bowls.

I'd have no doubt that ESPN would get the new FBS conference a bowl pool invite if they'd sign an ESPN+ contract. The other two things probably are deal breakers though.

(05-29-2021 03:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only way I see this being viable is the Texas and Louisiana SWAC schools have a soft landing in the Southland.

Southland:
West - Texas Southern, Prairie View A&M, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Texas A&M-CC (non-football)
East - Grambling State, SE Louisiana, Nicholls State, Southern, Northwestern State, New Orleans (non-football)

SWAC
West - UAPB, MVSU, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M
East - Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman, South Carolina State, NC Central, Norfolk State, Howard

UMES and Coppin State don't play football, so they have the most to lose in this scenario. Delaware State and Morgan State are also unaccounted for, but they do play football, so at the very least they might be able to find a football home in the Atlantic Sun or Big South. This assumes of course, all of the MEAC members survive as Division I members.

(05-29-2021 03:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only way I see this being viable is the Texas and Louisiana SWAC schools have a soft landing in the Southland.

Southland:
West - Texas Southern, Prairie View A&M, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Texas A&M-CC (non-football)
East - Grambling State, SE Louisiana, Nicholls State, Southern, Northwestern State, New Orleans (non-football)

SWAC
West - UAPB, MVSU, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M
East - Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman, South Carolina State, NC Central, Norfolk State, Howard

UMES and Coppin State don't play football, so they have the most to lose in this scenario. Delaware State and Morgan State are also unaccounted for, but they do play football, so at the very least they might be able to find a football home in the Atlantic Sun or Big South. This assumes of course, all of the MEAC members survive as Division I members.

(05-29-2021 04:17 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Realignment doesn’t work where we magically move schools like puzzle pieces at our convenience as if we’re some God-like figure.

(05-29-2021 07:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Maybe a better solution for the MEAC is a joint effort mercy killing by the SWAC and CIAA: the 4 strongest join the SWAC, creating an HBCU Superconference, while the other 4 (Morgan St, Coppin St, UMES, SC St join the CIAA?

(05-29-2021 04:47 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  it's somewhat unclear what the value of a shell conference even is

(05-29-2021 03:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only way I see this being viable is the Texas and Louisiana SWAC schools have a soft landing in the Southland.

(05-30-2021 12:29 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 03:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only way I see this being viable is the Texas and Louisiana SWAC schools have a soft landing in the Southland.

It's not the SWAC that is teetering on the brink ... so why would SWAC schools need a soft landing? "This only works if THESE schools get something they neither want nor need" doesn't sound to me like "the only way something works".

(05-30-2021 07:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-30-2021 12:29 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 03:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only way I see this being viable is the Texas and Louisiana SWAC schools have a soft landing in the Southland.

It's not the SWAC that is teetering on the brink ... so why would SWAC schools need a soft landing? "This only works if THESE schools get something they neither want nor need" doesn't sound to me like "the only way something works".

Yes, the OP said merge the Southland and MEAC, not SWAC.

The SWAC is robust and healthy, no need to merge, and Grambling and Southern, the Louisiana SWAC schools, have no need for a "soft landing" anywhere, as they have each been an integral part of the SWAC for many decades.

The SWAC has actually been one of the most stable conferences at any level, if we define "stability" as maintaining or gaining members, not losing them. It's been more than a half-century since anyone left the SWAC, and the school that did, in 1970, rejoined 25 years ago. The last time a school permanently left the SWAC was during the LBJ administration.

(05-29-2021 08:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 04:47 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  it's somewhat unclear what the value of a shell conference even is

The NCAA probably wouldn't let a group of schools just buy a shell conference for the autobid. But, just for fun, if it was allowed, how much is that NCAA autobid worth?

The minimum value of the autobid is the revenue the conference would get every year from March Madness even if no team in the conference ever won a game in the NCAA tournament and no team ever received an at-large bid. Right now that minimum payment would be about $1.3 million per year. Since we're just looking at a minimum, assume that the TV money paid for March Madness stays the same and doesn't increase, so the annual payout remains level. Also project it out only for 20 years of guaranteed payouts, who knows, maybe the tournament will cease to exist in 20 years.

Let's assume an average investment return on money for the next 20 years of 3 percent. Then the present value of 20 years of the minimum March Madness payout is a minimum of roughly $25.3 million.

That's the bare minimum that an NCAA autobid is worth, the present value of a guaranteed profit stream of $1.3 million per year. Add in whatever value we might put on having an autobid in your team's conference for all sports, and it should be quite a bit higher.

So IMO, even if you could sell an autobid for cash, it would be foolish to sell it for anything less than $35 million, and it's probably worth significantly more than that.

(05-30-2021 07:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 08:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 04:47 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  it's somewhat unclear what the value of a shell conference even is

The NCAA probably wouldn't let a group of schools just buy a shell conference for the autobid. But, just for fun, if it was allowed, how much is that NCAA autobid worth?

The minimum value of the autobid is the revenue the conference would get every year from March Madness even if no team in the conference ever won a game in the NCAA tournament and no team ever received an at-large bid. Right now that minimum payment would be about $1.3 million per year. Since we're just looking at a minimum, assume that the TV money paid for March Madness stays the same and doesn't increase, so the annual payout remains level. Also project it out only for 20 years of guaranteed payouts, who knows, maybe the tournament will cease to exist in 20 years.

Let's assume an average investment return on money for the next 20 years of 3 percent. Then the present value of 20 years of the minimum March Madness payout is a minimum of roughly $25.3 million.

That's the bare minimum that an NCAA autobid is worth, the present value of a guaranteed profit stream of $1.3 million per year. Add in whatever value we might put on having an autobid in your team's conference for all sports, and it should be quite a bit higher.

So IMO, even if you could sell an autobid for cash, it would be foolish to sell it for anything less than $35 million, and it's probably worth significantly more than that.

I believe there's a major flaw in your argument. You are assuming that the schools in the new conference had zero value themselves before they formed the new entity. In fact, if you are just shuffling the deck chairs within D-I, all the bottom feeder conferences have about the same value, so you should only be using the difference in expected annual revenues before applying your present value calculation. In most cases, that would mean the value of the shell conference is close to worthless.

(05-31-2021 12:04 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-30-2021 07:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 08:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 04:47 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  it's somewhat unclear what the value of a shell conference even is

The NCAA probably wouldn't let a group of schools just buy a shell conference for the autobid. But, just for fun, if it was allowed, how much is that NCAA autobid worth?

The minimum value of the autobid is the revenue the conference would get every year from March Madness even if no team in the conference ever won a game in the NCAA tournament and no team ever received an at-large bid. Right now that minimum payment would be about $1.3 million per year. Since we're just looking at a minimum, assume that the TV money paid for March Madness stays the same and doesn't increase, so the annual payout remains level. Also project it out only for 20 years of guaranteed payouts, who knows, maybe the tournament will cease to exist in 20 years.

Let's assume an average investment return on money for the next 20 years of 3 percent. Then the present value of 20 years of the minimum March Madness payout is a minimum of roughly $25.3 million.

That's the bare minimum that an NCAA autobid is worth, the present value of a guaranteed profit stream of $1.3 million per year. Add in whatever value we might put on having an autobid in your team's conference for all sports, and it should be quite a bit higher.

So IMO, even if you could sell an autobid for cash, it would be foolish to sell it for anything less than $35 million, and it's probably worth significantly more than that.

I believe there's a major flaw in your argument. You are assuming that the schools in the new conference had zero value themselves before they formed the new entity. In fact, if you are just shuffling the deck chairs within D-I, all the bottom feeder conferences have about the same value, so you should only be using the difference in expected annual revenues before applying your present value calculation. In most cases, that would mean the value of the shell conference is close to worthless.

Nope. If I'm selling a business with a guaranteed annual income of $1.3 million/year, then it gets valued according to that guaranteed revenue stream. If a would-be buyer says, hey, I already belong to such a business, or conference, then fine. They can keep being unhappy in their existing 14 or 16 or 18 team conference. But if they want a new one, they can pay for mine.

(05-31-2021 06:48 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-31-2021 12:04 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-30-2021 07:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 08:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 04:47 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  it's somewhat unclear what the value of a shell conference even is

The NCAA probably wouldn't let a group of schools just buy a shell conference for the autobid. But, just for fun, if it was allowed, how much is that NCAA autobid worth?

The minimum value of the autobid is the revenue the conference would get every year from March Madness even if no team in the conference ever won a game in the NCAA tournament and no team ever received an at-large bid. Right now that minimum payment would be about $1.3 million per year. Since we're just looking at a minimum, assume that the TV money paid for March Madness stays the same and doesn't increase, so the annual payout remains level. Also project it out only for 20 years of guaranteed payouts, who knows, maybe the tournament will cease to exist in 20 years.

Let's assume an average investment return on money for the next 20 years of 3 percent. Then the present value of 20 years of the minimum March Madness payout is a minimum of roughly $25.3 million.

That's the bare minimum that an NCAA autobid is worth, the present value of a guaranteed profit stream of $1.3 million per year. Add in whatever value we might put on having an autobid in your team's conference for all sports, and it should be quite a bit higher.

So IMO, even if you could sell an autobid for cash, it would be foolish to sell it for anything less than $35 million, and it's probably worth significantly more than that.

I believe there's a major flaw in your argument. You are assuming that the schools in the new conference had zero value themselves before they formed the new entity. In fact, if you are just shuffling the deck chairs within D-I, all the bottom feeder conferences have about the same value, so you should only be using the difference in expected annual revenues before applying your present value calculation. In most cases, that would mean the value of the shell conference is close to worthless.

Nope. If I'm selling a business with a guaranteed annual income of $1.3 million/year, then it gets valued according to that guaranteed revenue stream. If a would-be buyer says, hey, I already belong to such a business, or conference, then fine. They can keep being unhappy in their existing 14 or 16 or 18 team conference. But if they want a new one, they can pay for mine.

This is a situation where the enterprise value is not going to have much relation to the sale price. Because the only way a sale is going to happen is under extremely distressed conditions for the seller.
Like say the MEAC losing another member or two, and not having a path back to keeping their autobid.
If a transfer of the MEAC charter is a live option, "$35M take it 9r leave it" is not a credible negotiating stance

(05-31-2021 07:22 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-31-2021 06:48 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-31-2021 12:04 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(05-30-2021 07:54 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(05-29-2021 08:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The NCAA probably wouldn't let a group of schools just buy a shell conference for the autobid. But, just for fun, if it was allowed, how much is that NCAA autobid worth?

The minimum value of the autobid is the revenue the conference would get every year from March Madness even if no team in the conference ever won a game in the NCAA tournament and no team ever received an at-large bid. Right now that minimum payment would be about $1.3 million per year. Since we're just looking at a minimum, assume that the TV money paid for March Madness stays the same and doesn't increase, so the annual payout remains level. Also project it out only for 20 years of guaranteed payouts, who knows, maybe the tournament will cease to exist in 20 years.

Let's assume an average investment return on money for the next 20 years of 3 percent. Then the present value of 20 years of the minimum March Madness payout is a minimum of roughly $25.3 million.

That's the bare minimum that an NCAA autobid is worth, the present value of a guaranteed profit stream of $1.3 million per year. Add in whatever value we might put on having an autobid in your team's conference for all sports, and it should be quite a bit higher.

So IMO, even if you could sell an autobid for cash, it would be foolish to sell it for anything less than $35 million, and it's probably worth significantly more than that.

I believe there's a major flaw in your argument. You are assuming that the schools in the new conference had zero value themselves before they formed the new entity. In fact, if you are just shuffling the deck chairs within D-I, all the bottom feeder conferences have about the same value, so you should only be using the difference in expected annual revenues before applying your present value calculation. In most cases, that would mean the value of the shell conference is close to worthless.

Nope. If I'm selling a business with a guaranteed annual income of $1.3 million/year, then it gets valued according to that guaranteed revenue stream. If a would-be buyer says, hey, I already belong to such a business, or conference, then fine. They can keep being unhappy in their existing 14 or 16 or 18 team conference. But if they want a new one, they can pay for mine.

This is a situation where the enterprise value is not going to have much relation to the sale price. Because the only way a sale is going to happen is under extremely distressed conditions for the seller.
Like say the MEAC losing another member or two, and not having a path back to keeping their autobid.
If a transfer of the MEAC charter is a live option, "$35M take it 9r leave it" is not a credible negotiating stance

Does the NCAA allow sales of charters and accompanying automatic tournament bids?

I would imagine it would want some direct control over that process, no?