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Over under for 2021 wins - DuelingDragon - 05-26-2021 10:14 AM
Following up on Blazr's post, I see that the odds for 2021 win totals are out. Vegas has UAB's total at 7.5 W in 2021.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-win-totals-betting-value-projections#5
What say you? Over or under?
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - bftb - 05-26-2021 10:25 AM
Honestly, that is scary and a little discouraging. Obviously, as Blazer fans we think that number is low; I think most of us are expecting double-digit wins this year, so put me down for the over 7.5.
But the folks in Vegas are not stupid, and they are not in the business of giving money away. They do not see things through the green colored glasses we look through, and they are probably chalking up our records from the past few years to our woeful schedule.
That September stretch on the road could be our undoing--or it could propel us to where we want to be, in the upper echelon of the G5 and a national ranking.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - hooverblazer - 05-26-2021 10:51 AM
Over. I'll go with 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Marshall, and either Tulane or Liberty. I think that outcome would have us winning the West again and rematching with Marshall for the championship.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - blazers9911 - 05-26-2021 10:55 AM
(05-26-2021 10:14 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote: Following up on Blazr's post, I see that the odds for 2021 win totals are out. Vegas has UAB's total at 7.5 W in 2021.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-win-totals-betting-value-projections#5
What say you? Over or under?
That number is spot on in my opinion. I expect we will be in the 7-9 win range, with the early stretch possibly setting the tone for the rest of the year. We have no margin for error, and have a tough draw from the East this year. I’m going to say over, but I won’t be shocked if we end up 7-5.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - The Answer UAB - 05-26-2021 11:25 AM
(05-26-2021 10:55 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:(05-26-2021 10:14 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote: Following up on Blazr's post, I see that the odds for 2021 win totals are out. Vegas has UAB's total at 7.5 W in 2021.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-win-totals-betting-value-projections#5
What say you? Over or under?
That number is spot on in my opinion. I expect we will be in the 7-9 win range, with the early stretch possibly setting the tone for the rest of the year. We have no margin for error, and have a tough draw from the East this year. I’m going to say over, but I won’t be shocked if we end up 7-5.
I agree. This schedule is rough and our team has not performed well in nationally relevant games, which we will have @ UGA, @Tulane, and against Liberty at home. I hope I am being pessimistic and we run the table, but who knows ?!
I do think every game on the schedule is winnable outside of UGA, we just have a much, much tougher schedule than we are used to.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - HiddenDragon - 05-26-2021 12:04 PM
Stellar performance from the QB position = 9 to 10 wins
Average performance from the QB position = 6 to 7 wins
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - BlazinBham - 05-26-2021 01:05 PM
7-5 sounds about right to me. Depends on if we evolve on offense or we get a comfortable enough lead in 1st half and then get shutout in 2nd half as the defense holds on for dear life.
they are probably considering losses to UGA, Liberty, FAU, La Tech, Marshall &/or UTSA. Tulane isn’t to be slept on, either. Coming off of a bowl appearance.
The Liberty game is now going to be on CBS sports network
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - UAB Schnauzer - 05-26-2021 02:03 PM
Vegas picks a line based on the number they think will split the bets evenly not why the think will actually happen.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - blazers9911 - 05-26-2021 02:33 PM
That’s the famous line they always state. It’s definitely not what they always do though.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - The Answer UAB - 05-26-2021 04:27 PM
If we have good to great QB play and the offense is better than it has been, we could end the season with one loss. If the qb play and the offense are as *mediocre* as they have been, we could easily have 5-6 losses. This is assuming the defense is as good or better than it has been the past few years.. anyways, I’m excited for the season and glad we’re playing a challenging schedule.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - blazr - 05-26-2021 05:41 PM
(05-26-2021 02:03 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote: Vegas picks a line based on the number they think will split the bets evenly not why the think will actually happen.
True. But there’s a reason stock indices are important tools. You get a large enough sample size, gamblers in this case, and the herd forces the numbers to a more reliable prediction than just one “expert” can spit out.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - ATTALLABLAZE - 05-27-2021 09:13 AM
Over is an easy bet. The question is the number. We have to stay healthy and we have a shot at a magical season schedule be damned. We are really really good. We have a bunch of serious injuries and turn the ball over we will be closer to the number than we want to be.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - DuelingDragon - 05-27-2021 09:43 AM
(05-27-2021 09:13 AM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote: Over is an easy bet. The question is the number. We have to stay healthy and we have a shot at a magical season schedule be damned. We are really really good. We have a bunch of serious injuries and turn the ball over we will be closer to the number than we want to be.
I understand some the questions if you are on the outside looking in.
But it's sorta like 2017: "They don't know."
This team is stacked. There were some guys sitting out or playing small roles in 2020 who are going to be monsters.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - UAB Schnauzer - 05-27-2021 09:44 AM
(05-26-2021 05:41 PM)blazr Wrote:(05-26-2021 02:03 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote: Vegas picks a line based on the number they think will split the bets evenly not why the think will actually happen.
True. But there’s a reason stock indices are important tools. You get a large enough sample size, gamblers in this case, and the herd forces the numbers to a more reliable prediction than just one “expert” can spit out.
That number is just the starting point. It will move depending on the money. The year we came back I know someone who flew to Vegas to bet on UAB. Most of the sports books would not take the bet and the one that did limited the amount he could bet. He moved the line all by himself. He won the over and lost on UAB winning the conference. Still made money.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - The Answer UAB - 05-27-2021 11:43 AM
Are the QB play, all the penalties, and the offense going to be status quo? If so, I don't see how anyone could be that confident about 9+ wins. I haven't seen anything from the staff or team thus far to indicate that these glaring issues were priorities to fix going into next year. I hope I'm wrong, and I know that's a broken record. However, the issues that hold us back are glaringly obvious...
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - DuelingDragon - 05-27-2021 12:04 PM
The QB play will be fine. Johnston was actually highly efficient in 2020 considering he couldn't put any zip on the ball. He only threw one INT in 2020. He'll be healthy and have the best season of his career.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - MAN4UAB - 05-27-2021 02:22 PM
I hope that the other quarterbacks have worked on the deep ball during the offseason.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - blazr - 05-27-2021 05:33 PM
(05-27-2021 12:04 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote: The QB play will be fine. Johnston was actually highly efficient in 2020 considering he couldn't put any zip on the ball. He only threw one INT in 2020. He'll be healthy and have the best season of his career.
I would have much less concern about TJ3’s INTs if each one didn’t represent just one of 3 defenders that could have snagged the ball.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - Mungumry Blazer - 05-30-2021 04:42 PM
(05-26-2021 02:33 PM)blazers9911 Wrote: That’s the famous line they always state. It’s definitely not what they always do though.That is EXACTLY how it's done. They set the line they believe will split the bet equally, and then let the betters go at it. The line moves based on keeping the money equal. People think injury news moves the line, and I guess in a way it does. But only if gamblers place bets based on that news. The line NEVER just arbitrarily moves based on anything Vegas does. Once they place the initial line they are hands off.
RE: Over under for 2021 wins - blazr - 05-30-2021 06:36 PM
(05-30-2021 04:42 PM)Mungumry Blazer Wrote:(05-26-2021 02:33 PM)blazers9911 Wrote: That’s the famous line they always state. It’s definitely not what they always do though.That is EXACTLY how it's done. They set the line they believe will split the bet equally, and then let the betters go at it. The line moves based on keeping the money equal. People think injury news moves the line, and I guess in a way it does. But only if gamblers place bets based on that news. The line NEVER just arbitrarily moves based on anything Vegas does. Once they place the initial line they are hands off.
Yep, they wants bets balanced on both sides to guarantee they make money off the vig at least. Bookies are notoriously conservative with making/moving lines compared to the people with whom they do business. That said, you need a large enough pool to really let the line settle. That said, they’re going off the same info we have. That said, they wouldn’t issue a line if there were just too many unknowns. That said, they sometimes remove a line if some huge unknown factor comes up...like an injury.