(03-25-2021 08:52 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If the XFL is smart, they'll pick the markets without NFL teams that did well under the AAF or XFL. San Antonio. Salt Lake City. Those type places.

(03-25-2021 11:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Here's a hypothetical merged rule set that sounds vastly superior to the NFL and NCAA to me:

- American field dimensions (smaller than CFL)
- American goal post locations (smaller than CFL)
- 4 downs
- XFL running clock, CFL Final 3 Minutes
- XFL kickoffs.
- CFL WR Motion Rules
- CFL Rouge
- XFL Sky Judge
- CFL roster size
- XFL Extra Point Tiers

CFL: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Ottawa, Toronto
XFL: Salt Lake City, San Diego, Colorado Springs, San Antonio, Louisville, Birmingham, Orlando, Greenville

SLC, SD, Orlando, and SA were successful in having 20k+ draw routinely. Everybody else in the AAF didn't do so hot for attendance. I added Colorado Springs to round out a 4 team west and then kept the CFL/AAF crossover in Birmingham on the basis that UAB's new stadium instead of Legion Field alleviates the attendance issue. I then added Louisville and Greenville to round out a 4 team east.

Everybody listed has major football facilities already there. Everybody listed has a proven attendance track record or is in an underserved area that draws well in CFB but will likely never have a pro team in football otherwise. Everybody listed has major air hub access or a super fast tie in to one.

(03-26-2021 07:58 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-25-2021 11:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Here's a hypothetical merged rule set that sounds vastly superior to the NFL and NCAA to me:

- American field dimensions (smaller than CFL)
- American goal post locations (smaller than CFL)
- 4 downs
- XFL running clock, CFL Final 3 Minutes
- XFL kickoffs.
- CFL WR Motion Rules
- CFL Rouge
- XFL Sky Judge
- CFL roster size
- XFL Extra Point Tiers

CFL: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Ottawa, Toronto
XFL: Salt Lake City, San Diego, Colorado Springs, San Antonio, Louisville, Birmingham, Orlando, Greenville

SLC, SD, Orlando, and SA were successful in having 20k+ draw routinely. Everybody else in the AAF didn't do so hot for attendance. I added Colorado Springs to round out a 4 team west and then kept the CFL/AAF crossover in Birmingham on the basis that UAB's new stadium instead of Legion Field alleviates the attendance issue. I then added Louisville and Greenville to round out a 4 team east.

Everybody listed has major football facilities already there. Everybody listed has a proven attendance track record or is in an underserved area that draws well in CFB but will likely never have a pro team in football otherwise. Everybody listed has major air hub access or a super fast tie in to one.

If drawing G5 size crowds is a success, the bar isn't set very high. What were their TV ratings? I don't expect I'd watch many games no matter what time of year they are played, for the same reasons I don't watch many cornhole matches.

(03-26-2021 07:58 AM)ken d Wrote:  If drawing G5 size crowds is a success, the bar isn't set very high. What were their TV ratings? I don't expect I'd watch many games no matter what time of year they are played, for the same reasons I don't watch many cornhole matches.

(03-26-2021 09:11 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 07:58 AM)ken d Wrote:  If drawing G5 size crowds is a success, the bar isn't set very high. What were their TV ratings? I don't expect I'd watch many games no matter what time of year they are played, for the same reasons I don't watch many cornhole matches.

Nobody in the CFL has a stadium capacity above 35k with the lone exception of Edmonton at 55k.

(03-26-2021 09:23 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think that illustrates his point. Running a football league has very high fixed costs, yet we have seen every upstart pro football league end up having only minor league attendance levels at best. In the case of minor league baseball and hockey, the ones affiliated with MLB and the NHL even have the player salaries covered, so minor league owners are purely just focusing on ticket and stadium revenue. Unless the NFL steps in and starts paying the salaries of an upstart league’s players, that’s going to be untenable. Plus, why on Earth would the NFL do that they get a lot more out of Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson training new players AND they’re more marketable and famous when they get drafted, to boot? The fact that a league with the history of the CFL is considering merging with a “league” that went bankrupt before it even played a game shows how fragile these leagues are.

I continue to fail to see the *economic* justification for a new football league. Now, the NFL might want some better training for its practice squad-level players, so maybe there’s some type of pure developmental league opportunities on that front (akin to the Arizona Fall League for MLB), but it definitely doesn’t make any sense in terms of taking players right out of high school.

(03-26-2021 09:27 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:23 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think that illustrates his point. Running a football league has very high fixed costs, yet we have seen every upstart pro football league end up having only minor league attendance levels at best. In the case of minor league baseball and hockey, the ones affiliated with MLB and the NHL even have the player salaries covered, so minor league owners are purely just focusing on ticket and stadium revenue. Unless the NFL steps in and starts paying the salaries of an upstart league’s players, that’s going to be untenable. Plus, why on Earth would the NFL do that they get a lot more out of Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson training new players AND they’re more marketable and famous when they get drafted, to boot? The fact that a league with the history of the CFL is considering merging with a “league” that went bankrupt before it even played a game shows how fragile these leagues are.

I continue to fail to see the *economic* justification for a new football league. Now, the NFL might want some better training for its practice squad-level players, so maybe there’s some type of pure developmental league opportunities on that front (akin to the Arizona Fall League for MLB), but it definitely doesn’t make any sense in terms of taking players right out of high school.

Every franchise in the CFL turns a steady profit every year except Toronto and Montreal. Toronto moved from the Rogers Center to BMO Field. Attendance is still dreadful. Montreal's franchise is more or less run by the CFL itself right now as the previous owner bowed out after repeated heavy losses. I did not keep Montreal in my hypothetical above.

(03-26-2021 09:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If TV wants to pay for it, it will succeed. 2020 proved to us that ticket sales are pretty minor in the grand scheme of things

(03-26-2021 10:02 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Right - I would hope that CFL franchises would make a profit because that's *not* an upstart league. However, my understanding is that CFL franchises are profitable that's more akin to a profitable minor league baseball team (with a heavy emphasis on stadium revenue) as opposed to a major league team where there's a lot of ancillary media and marketing revenue.

(03-26-2021 10:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 10:02 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Right - I would hope that CFL franchises would make a profit because that's *not* an upstart league. However, my understanding is that CFL franchises are profitable that's more akin to a profitable minor league baseball team (with a heavy emphasis on stadium revenue) as opposed to a major league team where there's a lot of ancillary media and marketing revenue.

Correct, they are heavily gate dependent. I think part of that is a miscalculation in going to ESPN+ in the US market. They need to be on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 when no other football is being played. That's their path to profitability beyond the gate. CFL draws good numbers when it is on TSN and even, given the zero marketing, hype, fanfare or promotion, when it's simulcast on TSN and ESPN. TSN is just ESPN Canada. So the Worldwide Leader knows they do well when on cable. They just need to tell the US side of the company to copy what they're doing when there's no other football being played.

(03-26-2021 10:11 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-26-2021 09:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If TV wants to pay for it, it will succeed. 2020 proved to us that ticket sales are pretty minor in the grand scheme of things

The problem is that TV revenue is *much* harder to achieve than the ticket revenue.

You can get people in the stadium with promotions, deals, etc.

TV revenue means a third party finds your product valuable enough to pay a premium for it.

Look at the wide gulf in college football between the P5 and G5 in terms of TV revenue. They're on entirely different planets.

Now, I'm sure that a streaming service like ESPN+ would gladly take a bunch of minor league football games for a low price, but it's not going to justify all of the costs of starting up a league.

It continues to amaze me that otherwise smart people continue to look for the great white whale of a new pro football league. Psychologically, there's legitimately a certain point where a lot really wealthy people want try to buy the one thing that they don't have: fame. (To the fair, The Rock is the one XFL investor that already has plenty of fame.) They see owning a sports team as one way to achieve it, so they get suckered into investing in these upstart football leagues and other ventures. We see a similar thing in Hollywood where there's always a ton of vanity money from wealthy people financing movies. They all imagine themselves on the red carpet at the Oscars or holding up a championship trophy in front of millions of people. Of course, pretty much all of these people lose every penny that they invest in them.