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RE: Biden-Harris Administration - Hambone10 - 03-24-2022 12:48 PM

(03-24-2022 10:52 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:08 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Dude...
100% - 59% =41%. It was somewhat of a joke.

Missed that joke since the link I provided actually broke down what the other percentages were.

Since its the opinion of what 'executives' believe is the number one driver, I'm not really that interested in the details.... especially in that the term 'capital discipline' can have numerous definitions... as evidenced by the other drivers you mentioned... ALL of which in my mind could be considered capital discipline.


Quote:You said 'not quite' to 'capital discipline'... and then gave a text book example of capital discipline.... and your own quote said it was a 'two headed monster' between capital discipline and green initiatives. I simply made a joke that it must therefore be 59% capital discipline (and every other issue you mention above is another example of capital discipline) and the remainder, the 'other head' of that monster.

I said "not quite" to Owl#s saying "In other words, prices are not high enough to justify the risks."
[/quote]

Yes... which again in my mind is the definition of capital discipline. You don't tie up capital unless prices justify the investment. You seem to agree since you say...

Quote:From that questionnaire, it doesn't seem like there would be any price that would be high enough at the moment, since the executives don't believe there is certainty in how long those high prices will be maintained. That temporal element seems critical. I thought it was pretty clear that I was commenting on the lack of a temporal element to Owl#s comment.

Sorry, but this stipulation you're adding is really unnecessary.

Said simply... if a lease is expected to return 100 barrels and it costs 100,000 to develop it... then you need to sell the oil for an average price of 1,000 just to break even. If it takes time to develop the lease (which it does) then you HAVE to calculate the time value of that money (since you have to pay for it up front) and estimate the future value of oil and discount it...

Temporal elements are a given in any investment calculation.... and although you aren't developing a lease to sell oil at the current price, but instead at the price months and years into the future, certainly high short-term prices today impact the revenue from already developed leases and can give companies 'wiggle room' to take a few more more risks.... since the investment in new leases is a tax deduction against current revenues.... for now anyway. So yes, the current price DOES impact the investment decision, especially if a company will be experiencing extremely high profitability.


Quote:Based on this, I think we're in general agreement in how we're analyzing the statements and responses from these executives.

In essence, the current high prices are moot because of what many view as multip;e volatile situations that will likely result in future price and cost changes. So even is oil was at $1,000 per barrel, these executives are saying they don't trust it to stay high long enough to justify CapEx to expand production.

Not quite, but yes 03-lmfao

I'd only add as I did that at $1,000/bb, they may now (likely) have additional tax savings from investment that can change the outcome of some borderline investments to now make sense.... and at $10,000/bb, even more would make sense. Of course its not the same impact as an expectation of $10,000/bb on the future price... which is a $$/$$ comparison, but it does add the current tax savings to the calculation.

The alternative is to pay out excess bonuses and let the investors or workers pay the taxes... but those rates are generally higher.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - Hambone10 - 03-24-2022 12:49 PM

(03-24-2022 10:52 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:08 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Dude...
100% - 59% =41%. It was somewhat of a joke.

Missed that joke since the link I provided actually broke down what the other percentages were.

Since its the opinion of what 'executives' believe is the number one driver, I'm not really that interested in the details.... especially in that the term 'capital discipline' can have numerous definitions... as evidenced by the other drivers you mentioned... ALL of which in my mind could be considered capital discipline.


Quote:You said 'not quite' to 'capital discipline'... and then gave a text book example of capital discipline.... and your own quote said it was a 'two headed monster' between capital discipline and green initiatives. I simply made a joke that it must therefore be 59% capital discipline (and every other issue you mention above is another example of capital discipline) and the remainder, the 'other head' of that monster.

I said "not quite" to Owl#s saying "In other words, prices are not high enough to justify the risks."
[/quote]

Yes... which again in my mind is the definition of capital discipline. You don't tie up capital unless prices justify the investment. You seem to agree since you say...

Quote:From that questionnaire, it doesn't seem like there would be any price that would be high enough at the moment, since the executives don't believe there is certainty in how long those high prices will be maintained. That temporal element seems critical. I thought it was pretty clear that I was commenting on the lack of a temporal element to Owl#s comment.

Sorry, but this stipulation you're adding is really unnecessary.

Said simply... if a lease is expected to return 100 barrels and it costs 100,000 to develop it... then you need to sell the oil for an average price of 1,000 just to break even. If it takes time to develop the lease (which it does) then you HAVE to calculate the time value of that money (since you have to pay for it up front) and estimate the future value of oil and discount it...

Temporal elements are a given in any investment calculation.... and although you aren't developing a lease to sell oil at the current price, but instead at the price months and years into the future, certainly high short-term prices today impact the revenue from already developed leases and can give companies 'wiggle room' to take a few more more risks.... since the investment in new leases is a tax deduction against current revenues.... for now anyway. So yes, the current price DOES impact the investment decision, especially if a company will be experiencing extremely high profitability.


Quote:Based on this, I think we're in general agreement in how we're analyzing the statements and responses from these executives.

In essence, the current high prices are moot because of what many view as multip;e volatile situations that will likely result in future price and cost changes. So even is oil was at $1,000 per barrel, these executives are saying they don't trust it to stay high long enough to justify CapEx to expand production.

Not quite, but yes 03-lmfao

I'd only add as I did that at $1,000/bb, they may now (likely) have additional tax savings from investment that can change the outcome of some borderline investments to now make sense.... and at $10,000/bb, even more would make sense. Of course its not the same impact as an expectation of $10,000/bb on the future price... which is a $$/$$ comparison, but it does add the current tax savings to the calculation.

The alternative is to pay out excess bonuses and let the investors or workers pay the taxes... but those rates are generally higher.

Bottom line, tax and timing are ALWAYS part of an investment decision... or should be.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-24-2022 03:22 PM

(03-24-2022 12:30 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:56 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:44 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:55 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  When I signed my O&G lease, it took months before they could schedule a rig to drill the first of what eventually became three wells. So it is not something that can be geared up quickly. Rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders. It may take years to get them back. Same with crews and all the other links in the support chain. So it not as if the oil executives can decide to resume full drilling next Tuesday. Drilling greenlit today will not be putting oil into pipelines next month - especially if those pipelines don't exist.

My wells were eventually pulled and plugged, due to diminishing returns. Those returns can diminish because of low prices, increasing expenses and/or falling production. The Biden Administration has made it a goal to increase expenses. Biden will be Prez three more years. Do the math. Oil producers are.

As for the 9,000 leases, they are not not all primo - maybe none are. They are just the leftovers from Biden pulling thousands of others, many of which were primo.

Certainly the Biden Admin is not 100% responsible for gas prices, but neither are they 0% responsible, as they are claiming. The things that could be done, should be done, they are not doing, for political purposes, not economic.

Rigs have left the US and gone where?

Wherever they can find work. Canada and Mexico would be the most likely choices, but they could go even farther afield.

They are expensive devices, and the effort is to keep them working 7/24/365. They move directly from one location to another and set up in about 45 minutes, commencing drilling ASAP. I was invited to watch one set up. They were drilling that same day. The last thing they want to do is store them in a warehouse for years until prices go up. So they gravitate to where the work is.

The number of active rigs in the US:
Jan 2018 937
Jan 2019 1065
Jan 2020 791
Jan 2021 374
Jan 2022 601

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrr0_xr0_nus_cm.htm

Note the increasing numbers for 2021, which kind of gives the lie to the Admin's stance that it is greedy oilmen withholding production and gouging consumers.

Also note that there are 464 less rigs than three years ago. They went somewhere. they cannot be gotten back at the snap of a finger.

I don't doubt that rigs are less active post-COVID, but my question was about where they went.

Are you sure they actually left and went somewhere else? I mean, the drop from 2020 to 2021 is almost completely COVID related - your comment implies that the rigs left the US and set up shop elsewhere... My understanding is that active here refers to rigs that are operational, not all rigs that all rigs that are available and ready for use. So a rig dropping off the active list is generally still present and on-site and not decommissioned.

EIA shows that gas withdrawals and production are not above pre-pandemic amounts, where as crude has not caught back up.

Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-24-2022 04:59 PM

(03-24-2022 03:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 12:30 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:56 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:44 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:55 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  When I signed my O&G lease, it took months before they could schedule a rig to drill the first of what eventually became three wells. So it is not something that can be geared up quickly. Rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders. It may take years to get them back. Same with crews and all the other links in the support chain. So it not as if the oil executives can decide to resume full drilling next Tuesday. Drilling greenlit today will not be putting oil into pipelines next month - especially if those pipelines don't exist.

My wells were eventually pulled and plugged, due to diminishing returns. Those returns can diminish because of low prices, increasing expenses and/or falling production. The Biden Administration has made it a goal to increase expenses. Biden will be Prez three more years. Do the math. Oil producers are.

As for the 9,000 leases, they are not not all primo - maybe none are. They are just the leftovers from Biden pulling thousands of others, many of which were primo.

Certainly the Biden Admin is not 100% responsible for gas prices, but neither are they 0% responsible, as they are claiming. The things that could be done, should be done, they are not doing, for political purposes, not economic.

Rigs have left the US and gone where?

Wherever they can find work. Canada and Mexico would be the most likely choices, but they could go even farther afield.

They are expensive devices, and the effort is to keep them working 7/24/365. They move directly from one location to another and set up in about 45 minutes, commencing drilling ASAP. I was invited to watch one set up. They were drilling that same day. The last thing they want to do is store them in a warehouse for years until prices go up. So they gravitate to where the work is.

The number of active rigs in the US:
Jan 2018 937
Jan 2019 1065
Jan 2020 791
Jan 2021 374
Jan 2022 601

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrr0_xr0_nus_cm.htm

Note the increasing numbers for 2021, which kind of gives the lie to the Admin's stance that it is greedy oilmen withholding production and gouging consumers.

Also note that there are 464 less rigs than three years ago. They went somewhere. they cannot be gotten back at the snap of a finger.

I don't doubt that rigs are less active post-COVID, but my question was about where they went.

Are you sure they actually left and went somewhere else? I mean, the drop from 2020 to 2021 is almost completely COVID related - your comment implies that the rigs left the US and set up shop elsewhere... My understanding is that active here refers to rigs that are operational, not all rigs that all rigs that are available and ready for use. So a rig dropping off the active list is generally still present and on-site and not decommissioned.

EIA shows that gas withdrawals and production are not above pre-pandemic amounts, where as crude has not caught back up.

Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?

The importance of where they went is that they might not have gone anywhere. You have said the rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders, but haven’t backed that up with any numbers actually supporting the idea that these rigs are physically no longer in the country.

Maybe the rigs were transported down to Mexico or up to Canada - it’s not illogical to think they might have.

I don’t work in the oil field - I work on the environmental industry and have supported various O&G clients over the years and I routinely work with environmental drillers in the field. Our company, like plenty across the country, has gone gang buster since mid-2020.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-24-2022 10:24 PM

(03-24-2022 04:59 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 03:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 12:30 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:56 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:44 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Rigs have left the US and gone where?

Wherever they can find work. Canada and Mexico would be the most likely choices, but they could go even farther afield.

They are expensive devices, and the effort is to keep them working 7/24/365. They move directly from one location to another and set up in about 45 minutes, commencing drilling ASAP. I was invited to watch one set up. They were drilling that same day. The last thing they want to do is store them in a warehouse for years until prices go up. So they gravitate to where the work is.

The number of active rigs in the US:
Jan 2018 937
Jan 2019 1065
Jan 2020 791
Jan 2021 374
Jan 2022 601

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrr0_xr0_nus_cm.htm

Note the increasing numbers for 2021, which kind of gives the lie to the Admin's stance that it is greedy oilmen withholding production and gouging consumers.

Also note that there are 464 less rigs than three years ago. They went somewhere. they cannot be gotten back at the snap of a finger.

I don't doubt that rigs are less active post-COVID, but my question was about where they went.

Are you sure they actually left and went somewhere else? I mean, the drop from 2020 to 2021 is almost completely COVID related - your comment implies that the rigs left the US and set up shop elsewhere... My understanding is that active here refers to rigs that are operational, not all rigs that all rigs that are available and ready for use. So a rig dropping off the active list is generally still present and on-site and not decommissioned.

EIA shows that gas withdrawals and production are not above pre-pandemic amounts, where as crude has not caught back up.

Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?

The importance of where they went is that they might not have gone anywhere. You have said the rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders, but haven’t backed that up with any numbers actually supporting the idea that these rigs are physically no longer in the country.

Maybe the rigs were transported down to Mexico or up to Canada - it’s not illogical to think they might have.

I don’t work in the oil field - I work on the environmental industry and have supported various O&G clients over the years and I routinely work with environmental drillers in the field. Our company, like plenty across the country, has gone gang buster since mid-2020.

They certainly have gone somewhere, unless you have some proof they turned into air.

Based on what I know of the industry, they are in use somewhere. Makes no economic sense for the owners to have them sitting idle. If you owned a fleet of semis, would you park half of them behind your house? If you owned a fleet of boats, would you tie them to the pier and go home?

True, I cannot prove they are out of the country, any more than you can prove they are in the country and rusting away somewhere. But my position makes more logical sense. If you can find the data that will give us the location of every drilling in the world, please pass that on to me. I could not have even told you where the rigs on my place went after they were done here, or where they came from either. I used to pass long convoys of equipment - haven't seen one of those in a while.

i can see why an environment advisory company would be going great guns in the current situation - more regulations, more business. Does your company focus more on telling companies they have to comply, or telling them how to get around the regs?

Just for kicks, a couple of videos:

https://csnbbs.com/newreply.php?tid=911381&replyto=18161992

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1C1agkQ6v4

8-9 figures of specialized equipment. You really think it is all just sitting idle somewhere?


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-24-2022 10:44 PM

(03-24-2022 10:24 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 04:59 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 03:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 12:30 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 11:56 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Wherever they can find work. Canada and Mexico would be the most likely choices, but they could go even farther afield.

They are expensive devices, and the effort is to keep them working 7/24/365. They move directly from one location to another and set up in about 45 minutes, commencing drilling ASAP. I was invited to watch one set up. They were drilling that same day. The last thing they want to do is store them in a warehouse for years until prices go up. So they gravitate to where the work is.

The number of active rigs in the US:
Jan 2018 937
Jan 2019 1065
Jan 2020 791
Jan 2021 374
Jan 2022 601

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrr0_xr0_nus_cm.htm

Note the increasing numbers for 2021, which kind of gives the lie to the Admin's stance that it is greedy oilmen withholding production and gouging consumers.

Also note that there are 464 less rigs than three years ago. They went somewhere. they cannot be gotten back at the snap of a finger.

I don't doubt that rigs are less active post-COVID, but my question was about where they went.

Are you sure they actually left and went somewhere else? I mean, the drop from 2020 to 2021 is almost completely COVID related - your comment implies that the rigs left the US and set up shop elsewhere... My understanding is that active here refers to rigs that are operational, not all rigs that all rigs that are available and ready for use. So a rig dropping off the active list is generally still present and on-site and not decommissioned.

EIA shows that gas withdrawals and production are not above pre-pandemic amounts, where as crude has not caught back up.

Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?

The importance of where they went is that they might not have gone anywhere. You have said the rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders, but haven’t backed that up with any numbers actually supporting the idea that these rigs are physically no longer in the country.

Maybe the rigs were transported down to Mexico or up to Canada - it’s not illogical to think they might have.

I don’t work in the oil field - I work on the environmental industry and have supported various O&G clients over the years and I routinely work with environmental drillers in the field. Our company, like plenty across the country, has gone gang buster since mid-2020.

They certainly have gone somewhere, unless you have some proof they turned into air.

Based on what I know of the industry, they are in use somewhere. Makes no economic sense for the owners to have them sitting idle. If you owned a fleet of semis, would you park half of them behind your house? If you owned a fleet of boats, would you tie them to the pier and go home?

True, I cannot prove they are out of the country, any more than you can prove they are in the country and rusting away somewhere. But my position makes more logical sense. If you can find the data that will give us the location of every drilling in the world, please pass that on to me. I could not have even told you where the rigs on my place went after they were done here, or where they came from either. I used to pass long convoys of equipment - haven't seen one of those in a while.

i can see why an environment advisory company would be going great guns in the current situation - more regulations, more business. Does your company focus more on telling companies they have to comply, or telling them how to get around the regs?

Just for kicks, a couple of videos:

https://csnbbs.com/newreply.php?tid=911381&replyto=18161992

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1C1agkQ6v4

8-9 figures of specialized equipment. You really think it is all just sitting idle somewhere?

If you’re going to make a claim about how something is happening, you should be able to back it up.

And what extra regulations have been implemented since 2021 that you think are impacting my firm? Sounds like you’re up to date on these kind of regulations and you follow how quickly they percolate from the federal government to industry.

My company helps our clients manage their environmental issues in a very broad sense. We have work ranging from groundwater remediation to water front redevelopment to geotechnical analysis.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-25-2022 08:39 AM

(03-24-2022 10:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:24 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 04:59 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 03:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 12:30 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I don't doubt that rigs are less active post-COVID, but my question was about where they went.

Are you sure they actually left and went somewhere else? I mean, the drop from 2020 to 2021 is almost completely COVID related - your comment implies that the rigs left the US and set up shop elsewhere... My understanding is that active here refers to rigs that are operational, not all rigs that all rigs that are available and ready for use. So a rig dropping off the active list is generally still present and on-site and not decommissioned.

EIA shows that gas withdrawals and production are not above pre-pandemic amounts, where as crude has not caught back up.

Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?

The importance of where they went is that they might not have gone anywhere. You have said the rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders, but haven’t backed that up with any numbers actually supporting the idea that these rigs are physically no longer in the country.

Maybe the rigs were transported down to Mexico or up to Canada - it’s not illogical to think they might have.

I don’t work in the oil field - I work on the environmental industry and have supported various O&G clients over the years and I routinely work with environmental drillers in the field. Our company, like plenty across the country, has gone gang buster since mid-2020.

They certainly have gone somewhere, unless you have some proof they turned into air.

Based on what I know of the industry, they are in use somewhere. Makes no economic sense for the owners to have them sitting idle. If you owned a fleet of semis, would you park half of them behind your house? If you owned a fleet of boats, would you tie them to the pier and go home?

True, I cannot prove they are out of the country, any more than you can prove they are in the country and rusting away somewhere. But my position makes more logical sense. If you can find the data that will give us the location of every drilling in the world, please pass that on to me. I could not have even told you where the rigs on my place went after they were done here, or where they came from either. I used to pass long convoys of equipment - haven't seen one of those in a while.

i can see why an environment advisory company would be going great guns in the current situation - more regulations, more business. Does your company focus more on telling companies they have to comply, or telling them how to get around the regs?

Just for kicks, a couple of videos:

https://csnbbs.com/newreply.php?tid=911381&replyto=18161992

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1C1agkQ6v4

8-9 figures of specialized equipment. You really think it is all just sitting idle somewhere?

If you’re going to make a claim about how something is happening, you should be able to back it up.

And what extra regulations have been implemented since 2021 that you think are impacting my firm? Sounds like you’re up to date on these kind of regulations and you follow how quickly they percolate from the federal government to industry.

My company helps our clients manage their environmental issues in a very broad sense. We have work ranging from groundwater remediation to water front redevelopment to geotechnical analysis.

OK, since you think it is important, you tell me where you think the other rigs are. You are contesting that they have left the US, which says in effect that they are still here somewhere, doing nothing, earning zero for their owners. Back up your counterclaim. All I can present is common sense and a modicum of direct experience. What do you present, other than a petty quarrelsome nit-picking?

Your company is one of many businesses who make their money advising clients on how to navigate the plethora of government rules, regulations, and requirements. These advisors would include attorneys and accountants, among others. Trump rolled back a lot of regulations, and some of those have been reinstated under Biden. More regulations = more business for advisors. Duh. Once again, common sense. If you think otherwise, present your evidence. But you were the one who said your type of company was going gangbusters since 2020. Why do you think that is? Please present your evidence.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 08:55 AM

(03-25-2022 08:39 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:24 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 04:59 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 03:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Apparently our government does not keep track of where they went. As I said earlier, the logical destinations, because they are the easiest, are Mexico and Canada. The next easier would be Central/South America.

When I had drilling on my ranch, I was told that the rigs had to be reserved months ahead. Travel from one location to the next are highly coordinated to keep down time to a minimum. The rigs only make money when they are drilling. So they don't sit idle on a yard somewhere, waiting for work.

I don't see the importance of where they are.

I included 2018, and gave the link, so that the pandemic's effects could be considered.

You work in the oil field, I think. Has a 40% drop in activity hurt your company?

The importance of where they went is that they might not have gone anywhere. You have said the rigs have left the US since Biden signed his executive orders, but haven’t backed that up with any numbers actually supporting the idea that these rigs are physically no longer in the country.

Maybe the rigs were transported down to Mexico or up to Canada - it’s not illogical to think they might have.

I don’t work in the oil field - I work on the environmental industry and have supported various O&G clients over the years and I routinely work with environmental drillers in the field. Our company, like plenty across the country, has gone gang buster since mid-2020.

They certainly have gone somewhere, unless you have some proof they turned into air.

Based on what I know of the industry, they are in use somewhere. Makes no economic sense for the owners to have them sitting idle. If you owned a fleet of semis, would you park half of them behind your house? If you owned a fleet of boats, would you tie them to the pier and go home?

True, I cannot prove they are out of the country, any more than you can prove they are in the country and rusting away somewhere. But my position makes more logical sense. If you can find the data that will give us the location of every drilling in the world, please pass that on to me. I could not have even told you where the rigs on my place went after they were done here, or where they came from either. I used to pass long convoys of equipment - haven't seen one of those in a while.

i can see why an environment advisory company would be going great guns in the current situation - more regulations, more business. Does your company focus more on telling companies they have to comply, or telling them how to get around the regs?

Just for kicks, a couple of videos:

https://csnbbs.com/newreply.php?tid=911381&replyto=18161992

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1C1agkQ6v4

8-9 figures of specialized equipment. You really think it is all just sitting idle somewhere?

If you’re going to make a claim about how something is happening, you should be able to back it up.

And what extra regulations have been implemented since 2021 that you think are impacting my firm? Sounds like you’re up to date on these kind of regulations and you follow how quickly they percolate from the federal government to industry.

My company helps our clients manage their environmental issues in a very broad sense. We have work ranging from groundwater remediation to water front redevelopment to geotechnical analysis.

OK, since you think it is SVF important, you tell me where you think the other rigs are. You are contesting that they have left the US, which says in effect that they are still here somewhere, doing nothing, earning zero for their owners. Back up your claim. All I can present is common sense and a modicum of direct experience. What do you present, other than a petty quarrelsome nit-picking?

O c'mon, I'm clearly asking what evidence you've seen that makes you have your stance.

Don't twist this around and avoid a very easy, and direct question. You made the claim, back it up.

I'm not arguing they didn't leave, I'm asking what evidence you have that says they did.

Using common sense, the reason for the rig decrease was a drop in consumption due to COVID. Were there parts of the world where oil use did not decrease? It sure sounds like rigs being temporarily moth balled makes sense, since there was no demand for new wells.

Quote:Your company is one of many businesses who make their money advising clients on how to navigate the plethora of government rules, regulations, and requirements. These advisors would include attorneys and accountants. Trump rolled back a lot of regulations, and some of those have been reinstated under Biden. More regulations = more business for advisors. Once again, common sense. If you think otherwise, present your evidence. But you were the one who said your type of company was going gangbusters since 2020. Please present you evidence.

What regulations were rolled back under Trump that have since been reinstated by Biden? You keep making these claims without any details, and then when I ask about the details you run away and ask me to provide proof as to why I am asking the question...

Our record profits in 2020 and 2021 are proof of things going very well under both Trump and Biden, despite the pandemic.

Ironically, one of our biggest revenue streams right now is Brownfields work, which is government regulation that encourages development of blighted properties by providing tax incentives and legal protections for the developer. Yeah, great regulation to roll back... lol


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-25-2022 10:06 AM

Either they left, or they were mothballed. I pick one, you pick the other. I have as much proof as you.

As for the Brownfields work, I presume your services are needed to guide the developers through the maze of regulations controlling these projects. Or do they just turn them loose to develop as they see fit? What advice can you sell if they are un-regulated?


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - georgewebb - 03-25-2022 10:36 AM

(03-25-2022 08:55 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Ironically, one of our biggest revenue streams right now is Brownfields work, which is government regulation that encourages development of blighted properties by providing tax incentives and legal protections for the developer. Yeah, great regulation to roll back... lol

Sounds like the regulation itself is a rollback of taxes and liabilities to which the developer would otherwise be subject. :)

More generally, I am reminded of the seemingly inordinate detail and complexity of free trade agreements. The layman might think that a liberalizing law would also be simplifying, but the layman doesn't know law-making.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - Hambone10 - 03-25-2022 10:50 AM

(03-24-2022 10:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  If you’re going to make a claim about how something is happening, you should be able to back it up.

The response seems to be that 'it makes no financial sense' for that to happen. If you disagree, which you seem to... then why?

Places that need equipment rent it from those who don't. That's how its always been done. Why would that change? Sure, perhaps embargos etc might mean that we lease to Saudi who leases to Iran who leases to Russia since we can't directly lease to Russia, but that's just paperwork.


Quote:And what extra regulations have been implemented since 2021 that you think are impacting my firm?

Why does it have to be a new regulation?? It seems self-evident that the Biden administration would be more 'stringent' in their enforcement of various regulations than the Trump administration. Maybe its as simple as that, especially in light of the increased drilling under Trump, and the cancellation of some of that... since 'idle' areas can have very different clean-up needs from active ones. iirc, Brownfields stuff started back in the 90's (my aunt was a paralegal at an EPA lobbying firm)


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 11:30 AM

(03-25-2022 10:36 AM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 08:55 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Ironically, one of our biggest revenue streams right now is Brownfields work, which is government regulation that encourages development of blighted properties by providing tax incentives and legal protections for the developer. Yeah, great regulation to roll back... lol

Sounds like the regulation itself is a rollback of taxes and liabilities to which the developer would otherwise be subject. :)

More generally, I am reminded of the seemingly inordinate detail and complexity of free trade agreements. The layman might think that a liberalizing law would also be simplifying, but the layman doesn't know law-making.

It’s a roll back only if they follow and engage in a regulatory structure that they would not have previously had to abide by. So they’re trading the lower tax liability and liability protection for a more robust and strict regulatory framework that they often aren’t used to operating within.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-25-2022 11:37 AM

(03-25-2022 11:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  only if they follow and engage in a regulatory structure that they would not have previously had to abide by.

Bingo! new regulations, generating income for your company.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 11:39 AM

(03-25-2022 10:06 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Either they left, or they were mothballed. I pick one, you pick the other. I have as much proof as you.

As for the Brownfields work, I presume your services are needed to guide the developers through the maze of regulations controlling these projects. Or do they just turn them loose to develop as they see fit? What advice can you sell if they are un-regulated?

I actually am not saying they have been mothballed - I’m asking what evidence you have that makes the statement you made true.

I’ve noticed that you’ve not responded with a single shred of evidence that rigs physically left the US - just a hunch.

Our services are needed to help guide them through regulations “controlling” their work. This is a program that these developers freely entered because it provides them the ability to have legal protection, tax reductions, and often purchase parcels in desirable locations at a lower price point than if the same site was not contaminated. The guidance is both physical (completing work tasks and designs) and desktop (regulatory navigation, reporting, etc.).

If Brownfields programs did not exist, you would likely see significantly less development in urban cores where historical industrial and commercial activities occurred, because few developers would be willing to take on the risk of owning contaminated land. Brownfields is a really beneficial program that produces a lot of wins - blighted sites are developed, developers save money, the public benefits from remedial activities.

If industry in general was unregulated, companies would be free to chase profit and pollute to their hearts content, passing the negative externalities on to those in their neighboring communities. We’ve made so much progress in regards to environmental stewardship that I can’t fathom the idea of not regulating how companies manage and dispose of hazardous waste, what chemicals they can emit, how they must handle spills and releases, how they must store hazardous waste, and so on.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 11:43 AM

(03-25-2022 11:37 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  only if they follow and engage in a regulatory structure that they would not have previously had to abide by.

Bingo! new regulations, generating income for your company.

Lol - what?

Of course the regulatory environment generates income for my company. Where did you get that I was arguing otherwise?

I focused on the supposed rolling back and reinstating of new regulation. Brownfields regulations are not new in North Carolina. Nor are they even federal.

Frankly, you are spouting out undetailed talking points that sound good but have zero substance. Add some damn substance.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - OptimisticOwl - 03-25-2022 11:53 AM

(03-25-2022 11:39 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I actually am not saying they have been mothballed - I’m asking what evidence you have that makes the statement you made true.
of course, common sense is not enough for you.

If all the traffic around slows to the speed limit, I have a hunch there is a police car ahead. I cannot find proof on the internet it is so.


Once I heard gunshots outside my office, the sound of somebody running, and the sound of somebody else shouting. I had a hunch I should not go outside. If you had wanted to go out, I could not have proved it to you that you should not.



Quote:If industry in general was unregulated, companies would be free to chase profit and pollute to their hearts content, passing the negative externalities on to those in their neighboring communities. We’ve made so much progress in regards to environmental stewardship that I can’t fathom the idea of not regulating how companies manage and dispose of hazardous waste, what chemicals they can emit, how they must handle spills and releases, how they must store hazardous waste, and so on.

Nobody is saying that all regulations are bad and should be lifted. Straw man.

Just saying that without regulations to be guided around, nobody needs your company, so more regulations = more business for you. Which has been my point all along.

Companies selling flood control advice love rain.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 11:59 AM

(03-25-2022 10:50 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2022 10:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  If you’re going to make a claim about how something is happening, you should be able to back it up.

The response seems to be that 'it makes no financial sense' for that to happen. If you disagree, which you seem to... then why?

Places that need equipment rent it from those who don't. That's how its always been done. Why would that change? Sure, perhaps embargos etc might mean that we lease to Saudi who leases to Iran who leases to Russia since we can't directly lease to Russia, but that's just paperwork.

Because the drop in oil production wasn't tied to permitting - it was tied to COVID-19. The active rig count plummted while Trump was in office.

I expect a world-wide pandemic that affected oil and gas demand that much in the US would have had similar impacts elsewhere.

So if the rigs left the US under Trump because production was down and exploration wasn't needed, where in the world did exploration keep going on at that used the rigs? And that means that oil production actually increased in those areas if they needed to get equipment that was stationed in the US.

I get that there's a logical stance that "rig count went down in the US so that means the rigs left." But if one is going to claim that as fact, they should back up the claim with facts.

Perhaps the drill rigs did leave the US, perhaps they didn't. But OO made the initial claim and he should actually back it up.

Quote:
Quote:And what extra regulations have been implemented since 2021 that you think are impacting my firm?

Why does it have to be a new regulation?? It seems self-evident that the Biden administration would be more 'stringent' in their enforcement of various regulations than the Trump administration. Maybe its as simple as that, especially in light of the increased drilling under Trump, and the cancellation of some of that... since 'idle' areas can have very different clean-up needs from active ones. iirc, Brownfields stuff started back in the 90's (my aunt was a paralegal at an EPA lobbying firm)

Why does it have to be new regulation? Because we were talking about changes Biden has made! OO claimed Trump rolled things back and then Biden reinstated them, and that action is why my company is making more money.

It's just completely false in this instance - our company has not experienced some massive growth following Biden's inauguration and this so called "reinstatement" of regulations under Biden.

For starters, my company is not often impacted by the type of environmental regulations that become more stringent because we do not do a lot of permitting work - so exhaust or effluent limits aren't that impactful. Secondly, while the federal government itself is a decent client, a healthy majority of our clients are being regulated by STATES and not the federal government. We have plenty in RCRA programs, but also plenty in individual state programs like Brownfields, UST, Dry Cleaners, and so on. And that doesn't even touch on the due diligence work that we do for clients around property transactions that is driven by environmental liabilities and not strict regulations.

Ironically, the Trump admin actually prioritized Superfund action, which probably did lead to some added revenue to our firm.

I'm sure some industries are impacted immediately by rules releases - but I have not seen specific rules and regulations from the Biden admin that have been the driver in our work across the firm.


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 12:00 PM

(03-25-2022 11:53 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:39 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I actually am not saying they have been mothballed - I’m asking what evidence you have that makes the statement you made true.
of course, common sense is not enough for you.

If all the traffic around slows to the speed limit, I have a hunch there is a police car ahead. I cannot find proof on the internet it is so.


Once I heard gunshots outside my office, the sound of somebody running, and the sound of somebody else shouting. I had a hunch I should not go outside. If you had wanted to go out, I could not have proved it to you that you should not.



Quote:If industry in general was unregulated, companies would be free to chase profit and pollute to their hearts content, passing the negative externalities on to those in their neighboring communities. We’ve made so much progress in regards to environmental stewardship that I can’t fathom the idea of not regulating how companies manage and dispose of hazardous waste, what chemicals they can emit, how they must handle spills and releases, how they must store hazardous waste, and so on.

Nobody is saying that all regulations are bad and should be lifted. Straw man.

Just saying that without regulations to be guided around, nobody needs your company, so more regulations = more business for you. Which has been my point all along.

Companies selling flood control advice love rain.

Traffic in The Triangle decreased dramatically during COVID-19. I guess people sold their cars since they weren't driving them on the road...


RE: Biden-Harris Administration - Rice93 - 03-25-2022 01:11 PM

(03-25-2022 12:00 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:53 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:39 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I actually am not saying they have been mothballed - I’m asking what evidence you have that makes the statement you made true.
of course, common sense is not enough for you.

If all the traffic around slows to the speed limit, I have a hunch there is a police car ahead. I cannot find proof on the internet it is so.


Once I heard gunshots outside my office, the sound of somebody running, and the sound of somebody else shouting. I had a hunch I should not go outside. If you had wanted to go out, I could not have proved it to you that you should not.



Quote:If industry in general was unregulated, companies would be free to chase profit and pollute to their hearts content, passing the negative externalities on to those in their neighboring communities. We’ve made so much progress in regards to environmental stewardship that I can’t fathom the idea of not regulating how companies manage and dispose of hazardous waste, what chemicals they can emit, how they must handle spills and releases, how they must store hazardous waste, and so on.

Nobody is saying that all regulations are bad and should be lifted. Straw man.

Just saying that without regulations to be guided around, nobody needs your company, so more regulations = more business for you. Which has been my point all along.

Companies selling flood control advice love rain.

Traffic in The Triangle decreased dramatically during COVID-19. I guess people sold their cars since they weren't driving them on the road...




RE: Biden-Harris Administration - RiceLad15 - 03-25-2022 02:11 PM

(03-25-2022 01:11 PM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 12:00 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:53 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(03-25-2022 11:39 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I actually am not saying they have been mothballed - I’m asking what evidence you have that makes the statement you made true.
of course, common sense is not enough for you.

If all the traffic around slows to the speed limit, I have a hunch there is a police car ahead. I cannot find proof on the internet it is so.


Once I heard gunshots outside my office, the sound of somebody running, and the sound of somebody else shouting. I had a hunch I should not go outside. If you had wanted to go out, I could not have proved it to you that you should not.



Quote:If industry in general was unregulated, companies would be free to chase profit and pollute to their hearts content, passing the negative externalities on to those in their neighboring communities. We’ve made so much progress in regards to environmental stewardship that I can’t fathom the idea of not regulating how companies manage and dispose of hazardous waste, what chemicals they can emit, how they must handle spills and releases, how they must store hazardous waste, and so on.

Nobody is saying that all regulations are bad and should be lifted. Straw man.

Just saying that without regulations to be guided around, nobody needs your company, so more regulations = more business for you. Which has been my point all along.

Companies selling flood control advice love rain.

Traffic in The Triangle decreased dramatically during COVID-19. I guess people sold their cars since they weren't driving them on the road...


Quote:The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has brought it all to a hard stop in many places.

How bad is it?

Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the U.S., had 440 land rigs at the end of August last year, according to Baker Hughes' weekly count. That number had shrunk to 104 this year...

"In normal times, if a rig lays down in Wyoming, that crew might move to North Dakota, or Texas or New Mexico. But, in this particular climate, there (is) nowhere to move because everyone was down," he said, referring to the dwindling rig count in those states.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/07/covid-19-us-oil-industry-wyoming-texas-baker-hughes/5735992002/

Quote:The rig count began to decrease sharply in mid-March. The quick reduction in active rigs reflects the sudden loss of petroleum demand related to coronavirus-related mitigation efforts that also resulted in recent increases in the amount of crude oil placed in storage.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43796

Quote:Covid-19 has already created a heavy knock-on effect on the demand for oil.

In fact, the pandemic has wiped out almost a third of global oil demand through lockdowns and travel bans.

Last month saw the prices of crude oil barrels crash to a historic low, prompting a price war so that oil companies could combat financial struggles.

And alongside this, offshore drilling contractors are experiencing contracts being ended. It’s left many companies with inactive drill rigs and with serious question marks over how to handle them.

A downturn such as this hugely changes the dynamics of utilization rates of manpower and equipment. And it’s often tricky to estimate or measure the duration.

The good news is, there are options out there that help offshore drilling contractors tackle inactive oil rigs, saving money in the process.

https://www.aggreko.com/en-us/news/2020/nam-articles/oil-and-gas/how-cold-stacking-can-help-save-money-for-inactive-oil-rigs

Or, you know, it was Biden who scared all these drilling firms from the US and they took their drill rigs to other parts of the world that were not affected by the global drop in demand.