(10-19-2021 10:56 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Yes, this other possibility also exists (if I didn't explicitly denote that before). Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Quote:About 28% of unemployed workers who weren’t urgently searching for a job said a larger financial cushion was a reason for their lack of urgency, according to Indeed’s September Job Search Survey.

(10-19-2021 11:13 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 10:56 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Yes, this other possibility also exists (if I didn't explicitly denote that before). Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Dude... You're an educated person. That isn't remotely what any of us have said.

YOU say this is a major obstacle. You've presented nothing but 'extrapolated statistics and a comment that has expired about schools being closed to demonstrate your claim.

None of us think it is. We've provided DOZENS of what you call 'exceptions' and we call 'people learning to navigate the new paradigm'.

Quote:From the top results from my google search of 'why aren't people going back to work' that don't require a subscription that I don't have....

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/podcasts/jobs-report-labor-shortage.html

They mention moms... but its one of the last things they mention and they don't mention daycare at all.

Quote:https://www.barrons.com/articles/pandemic-labor-shortage-workers-coming-back-51634303143

Amusingly....

Quote:About 28% of unemployed workers who weren’t urgently searching for a job said a larger financial cushion was a reason for their lack of urgency, according to Indeed’s September Job Search Survey.

I think OO said that and you disagreed.

Quote:https://www.rgj.com/story/news/money/business/2021/09/02/great-resignation-why-people-not-returning-work/5661302001/

This is the first that mentions your issue, and it is pretty far down their list and only the 'space limitations as a result of COVID restrictions' is 'new' (and relates to my comments about the chaos being self-inflicted.)


Overwhelmingly I see these articles speaking to the changes in the environment... working from home... work/life balance... AND addressing concerns about work or school safety etc etc as being the primary drivers of this shift.

(10-19-2021 11:49 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I'm laughing out loud that you typed the two bolded sentences, side by side, in response to me saying that y'all believe childcare is having a negligible impact...

Quote:Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.

Quote:Outside of the fact that we've now gone from words like 'significant' to simply 'meaningful'.... True.... and it doesn't seem a lot of others on the front page of a google search do either. They often list many things before even getting to this.

Quote:Sorry, but c'mon. Since they don't mention daycare they're talking about something different???? They say "In both countries, Amanda Taub, our Interpreter columnist, points out that supporting flexible re-entry is essential to avoid long-term regression in gender equality. She points to Sweden, which heavily subsidizes day care and has one of the highest rates of female labor participation in the developed world, as one example of success."

Plus, that is in the section titled "Creating re-entry support for working parents"!!!

So people aren't returning to work because Sweden subsidizes their day care and Amanda Taub thinks we should too??

You've now moved the needle again

Sure, if you subsidize day care, you change once again the inputs.... but its not as if they had it before and now they don't.

Quote:

Quote:https://www.barrons.com/articles/pandemic-labor-shortage-workers-coming-back-51634303143

Amusingly.... [quote]About 28% of unemployed workers who weren’t urgently searching for a job said a larger financial cushion was a reason for their lack of urgency, according to Indeed’s September Job Search Survey.

I think OO said that and you disagreed.

False. I've said many times that the extra cushion provided from the stimulus might still be impacting labor numbers. That this idea is why we didn't see a massive rebound in September when the stimulus ran out in August.

See here for proof - I'd appreciate you make a revision.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-911381-post-17723572.html#pid17723572

Nope. No revision necessary. You clearly thought that wasn't a major impact and that instead it was daycare... yet 28% of those not actively looking for work mentioned the cushion. Perhaps you can give me a stat on how many said 'the lack of daycare' (being different in the current context... specifically a lack of workers as you note... because as OO and others have said, daycare has ALWAYS been a factor)

We're talking about major vs minor impacts... and you CLEARLY disagreed that the above was more significant than daycare.

Quote:I've provided articles, and could provide plenty more, about the childcare issues caused by COVID (again, why does "self-inflicted" matter? It's not like individual parents made decisions to close schools or daycares or anything else). Do you think I've decided to make this a pet issue without having read or listened to media about this? It's not like I said to myself, "I've got absolutely no reason to suggest childcare, but **** it, here we go."

Self-inflicted... means many of the regulations that make daycare tough on people aren't necessary/don't do much good. Limiting class sizes, especially for very young ones would be among the unnecessary events specifically mentioned in that article.

As to the rest, no... but I think a lot of the sources you have seek to advance a progressive agenda including subsidizing daycare and are using some of these situations to advance that agenda... including doing things like limiting day care options for 0-4yr olds who don't really get sick from this without a lot of comorbidities but that still forces one parent to stay at home. I mean, why else would you list 'gender equity' in terms of COVID? If it makes more sense for dad to stay home by virtue of his earning potential, why shouldn't he??

And now you list another, similarly progressive source

Quote:This morning NPR did an entire segment on how the loss of jobs in childcare from COVID, coupled with the high costs that have gotten higher, are impacting people.

I agree with you that there are numerous reasons for why both the labor force is depressed AND hiring is difficult - I can point you to at least two posts where I expand on those thoughts. We all just seem to be at an impasse on to whether or not childcare is one that moves the needle.

Quote:Your article focuses a lot on the hospitality industry being that it's a Reno paper (interesting first outlet to pop up on Google), and the hospitality industry has seemingly been hurt the hardest by those basically changing careers. Ironically, the childcare issue comes up in the article before the whole changing industry issue is brought up.

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

“Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

“Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

“Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

“Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

(10-19-2021 05:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

“Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Your refusal to believe that changes to childcare - due to both school changes, labor shortages in early childcare, and continued increases in costs of childcare - is impacting the labor market is impressive.

Is impacting - at all, another of your all or nothings

We need an all or nothing emoji for use with Lad’s posts.

(10-19-2021 08:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 05:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  “Yes, y'all don't think childcare is having a meaningful impact on the labor market.”

So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Your refusal to believe that changes to childcare - due to both school changes, labor shortages in early childcare, and continued increases in costs of childcare - is impacting the labor market is impressive.

Is impacting - at all, another of your all or nothings

We need an all or nothing emoji for use with Lad’s posts.

I tried to make sure I wasn't speaking as absolute after this was point out - this may have slipped through.

I see that those who have pushed back on this believe there has not been 0 impact, but given the vociferous pushback, it's clear it is negligible or not meaningful (otherwise, why the pushback).

(10-19-2021 10:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 08:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 05:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  So you agree with me that childcare issues are having an meaningful impact on the labor market???

Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Your refusal to believe that changes to childcare - due to both school changes, labor shortages in early childcare, and continued increases in costs of childcare - is impacting the labor market is impressive.

Is impacting - at all, another of your all or nothings

We need an all or nothing emoji for use with Lad’s posts.

I tried to make sure I wasn't speaking as absolute after this was point out - this may have slipped through.

I see that those who have pushed back on this believe there has not been 0 impact, but given the vociferous pushback, it's clear it is negligible or not meaningful (otherwise, why the pushback).

Depends on the highly subjective definitions of negligible and meaningful.

The pushback is because you try so very hard to make it about child care and not income from other sources.

My thinking: People will take jobs as long as the job gives them something better than what they have - usually more money. If offered more money, and they still reject it, one has to ask why. Lack of child care may be the answer for a few, but we must look elsewhere to find the answers for most workers.

(10-19-2021 04:44 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Interesting he goes to Sweden for examples, but doesn’t like being called a socialist.

I don’t look to facists for my role models, despite what the socialists say.

Lad, these discussions would go better if you avoided polarizing us with your all or nothing comments. Just a suggestion.

What a hilarious response right after Ham’s blockading response that does exactly that - distorts what I said into an absolute that isn’t true.

Right back at ya.

(10-19-2021 04:54 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Just think for a second Ham - you spent all of that time dissecting a Reno newspaper article because I had the audacity to make an aside about it “focusing a lot” on the hospitality industry. And that aside even agreed with your point about career changes.

Maybe take a step back from the keyboard?

(10-20-2021 07:22 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 10:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 08:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 05:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 04:58 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Somehow, though, y'all are more interested in focusing on these exceptions as ways to try and argue that COVID impacts on childcare are having negligible effects on the labor market.

Your refusal to believe that changes to childcare - due to both school changes, labor shortages in early childcare, and continued increases in costs of childcare - is impacting the labor market is impressive.

Is impacting - at all, another of your all or nothings

We need an all or nothing emoji for use with Lad’s posts.

I tried to make sure I wasn't speaking as absolute after this was point out - this may have slipped through.

I see that those who have pushed back on this believe there has not been 0 impact, but given the vociferous pushback, it's clear it is negligible or not meaningful (otherwise, why the pushback).

Depends on the highly subjective definitions of negligible and meaningful.

The pushback is because you try so very hard to make it about child care and not income from other sources.

My thinking: People will take jobs as long as the job gives them something better than what they have - usually more money. If offered more money, and they still reject it, one has to ask why. Lack of child care may be the answer for a few, but we must look elsewhere to find the answers for most workers.

My very first post identified three distinct issues, all of which are affecting either the low labor force participation or the difficulty hiring. In other posts I discussed some of the other issues that exist as well.

Yet oddly you seem to ignore that…

(10-20-2021 09:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2021 07:22 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 10:17 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 08:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 05:01 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Your refusal to believe that changes to childcare - due to both school changes, labor shortages in early childcare, and continued increases in costs of childcare - is impacting the labor market is impressive.

Is impacting - at all, another of your all or nothings

We need an all or nothing emoji for use with Lad’s posts.

I tried to make sure I wasn't speaking as absolute after this was point out - this may have slipped through.

I see that those who have pushed back on this believe there has not been 0 impact, but given the vociferous pushback, it's clear it is negligible or not meaningful (otherwise, why the pushback).

Depends on the highly subjective definitions of negligible and meaningful.

The pushback is because you try so very hard to make it about child care and not income from other sources.

My thinking: People will take jobs as long as the job gives them something better than what they have - usually more money. If offered more money, and they still reject it, one has to ask why. Lack of child care may be the answer for a few, but we must look elsewhere to find the answers for most workers.

My very first post identified three distinct issues, all of which are affecting either the low labor force participation or the difficulty hiring. In other posts I discussed some of the other issues that exist as well.

Yet oddly you seem to ignore that…

Help an old man: what was that first post number?