(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:43 PM)BSWBRice Wrote:  What types of cash jobs? You're probably right to some extent, though I'm drawing a blank on what roles might've popped up over the past 18 months.

It is weird that all these low paying roles were filled, COVID hit, and now these workers seem to have disappeared. I don't think the $1800 stimmy is still carrying the day.

Apologies if this has already been hashed and re-hashed; sometimes I skim over some of the back-and-forth.

edit: sentence structure

Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:43 PM)BSWBRice Wrote:  What types of cash jobs? You're probably right to some extent, though I'm drawing a blank on what roles might've popped up over the past 18 months.

It is weird that all these low paying roles were filled, COVID hit, and now these workers seem to have disappeared. I don't think the $1800 stimmy is still carrying the day.

Apologies if this has already been hashed and re-hashed; sometimes I skim over some of the back-and-forth.

edit: sentence structure

Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:43 PM)BSWBRice Wrote:  What types of cash jobs? You're probably right to some extent, though I'm drawing a blank on what roles might've popped up over the past 18 months.

It is weird that all these low paying roles were filled, COVID hit, and now these workers seem to have disappeared. I don't think the $1800 stimmy is still carrying the day.

Apologies if this has already been hashed and re-hashed; sometimes I skim over some of the back-and-forth.

edit: sentence structure

Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:43 PM)BSWBRice Wrote:  What types of cash jobs? You're probably right to some extent, though I'm drawing a blank on what roles might've popped up over the past 18 months.

It is weird that all these low paying roles were filled, COVID hit, and now these workers seem to have disappeared. I don't think the $1800 stimmy is still carrying the day.

Apologies if this has already been hashed and re-hashed; sometimes I skim over some of the back-and-forth.

edit: sentence structure

Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

(10-14-2021 08:00 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

That's all he has offered. Is it kind of sexist to imply all the workers not taking the $15 jobs are working moms? Sure, there are single dads - I was one - but not many.

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

To hold out for what? If they manged to save a month or two of living expenses, and that is what is between them and starvation, why wait?

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

Judging from reports, we are letting in lots more illegals than a year ago. But the businesses I see hurting the most for workers - fast food - don't rely on illegals most of whom do not speak English.


There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

Certainly there are "some", but I doubt this would be a major contributor to the labor shortage. Even students need jobs to support themselves - it ain't all free yet.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

"fear of infection"? We have a national revolt against vaccination and fear of infectiion is a factor? I wonder when GoodOwl and other like him will venture out to take a job?

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

(10-14-2021 11:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

Lets take any of the above and apply them to the John Deere 1 out of 6 issue.

"Enhanced unemployment" -- probably not. Ended in Texas two or so months ago.

"reduction in immigration" -- Again, the impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, has zero impact on that shop floor.

'Changed careers' -- not likely.

'Child care' -- not even close.

Now consider this Bill Maher clip on the attitudes fomented by the media:

Again, the thing that is left out in your smorgasbord is the stupid level of angst, horror, and dread that has been drummed up on this.

(10-15-2021 06:04 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

To hold out for what? If they manged to save a month or two of living expenses, and that is what is between them and starvation, why wait?

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

Judging from reports, we are letting in lots more illegals than a year ago. But the businesses I see hurting the most for workers - fast food - don't rely on illegals most of whom do not speak English.


There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

Certainly there are "some", but I doubt this would be a major contributor to the labor shortage. Even students need jobs to support themselves - it ain't all free yet.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

"fear of infection"? We have a national revolt against vaccination and fear of infectiion is a factor? I wonder when GoodOwl and other like him will venture out to take a job?

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

And child care.

The problem seems to be that workers who lost their $12 jobs are not returning to reclaim those same jobs at $15.

Looking specifically at the local businesses I have mentioned - Target, KFC, Sonic, Panda - the target demographic seems to be young people 16-20, who are unlikely to have small kids who need childcare.

The nationwide shortage of truckers is also unlikely to be fueled by drivers unable to find child care.

And the child care workers themselves are not coming back. Why not? They could bring their kids to work.

I agree though, it is not just one issue, but several. I just think all the ones you list are minor. I think the one you deny at all costs is a reasonable alternative.

(10-14-2021 06:25 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 04:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:43 PM)BSWBRice Wrote:  What types of cash jobs? You're probably right to some extent, though I'm drawing a blank on what roles might've popped up over the past 18 months.

It is weird that all these low paying roles were filled, COVID hit, and now these workers seem to have disappeared. I don't think the $1800 stimmy is still carrying the day.

Apologies if this has already been hashed and re-hashed; sometimes I skim over some of the back-and-forth.

edit: sentence structure

Food delivery, Uber, lawn care, odd jobs, construction, anything a lot of people do for cash without reporting the cash income. Not saying it is new stuff that suddenly appeared in the last year. Just that somebody making more than $15/hour between a cash job + givernment benefits may not in a hurry to take a $15/hour job. The loss of regular jobs due to the pandemic forced people to accommodate, and for some, maybe those accommodations sound better now than going back to the old ways.

JMHO. But it makes sense, and nobody else has made a better suggestion.

I'd be surprised if Uber and food delivery apps allow for that sort of non-reporting. All of the payments are electronic and no cash passes between people.

Funny, every now and then I actually drive Uber. Have done so since I moved back to Texas. Mainly to get out of the house and clear my head.

Do it a number of times down in Fredericksburg on the weekends as well.

A fair number of the times I have been tipped in straight cash, outside of the app.

Your last sentence is patently false.

Maybe work on your reading comprehension? (snark gets snark)

Tipping isn’t payment - how many times have your fares been paid in cash? I specifically mentioned that cash tipping does occur. I estimated that maybe 10% of the time is was cash. I’ve got no problem if I’m off on the percentage, but I doubt nearly anyone is paying for their rides in cash.

Quote:Uber and food delivery apps don't typically garner cash tips because everything is done electronically - including tipping.

(10-15-2021 07:21 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 11:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

Lets take any of the above and apply them to the John Deere 1 out of 6 issue.

"Enhanced unemployment" -- probably not. Ended in Texas two or so months ago.

"reduction in immigration" -- Again, the impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, has zero impact on that shop floor.

'Changed careers' -- not likely.

'Child care' -- not even close.

Now consider this Bill Maher clip on the attitudes fomented by the media:

Again, the thing that is left out in your smorgasbord is the stupid level of angst, horror, and dread that has been drummed up on this.

You think the John Deere issue is related to COVID hysteria? That seems like a really odd take, given that the strike is related to an issue between the union, John Deere, and union members.

I don’t get you right now - I said “fear of infection” in that post as one possible reason, yet you glossed right over it. Did I not embellish it enough and say rightfully or wrongfully? Some people still have complicating circumstances that do make them more susceptible to infection and some are overly paranoid.

I’m currently in NYC - **** is popping and it does not seem to me like people are huddled up in fear. Life very much looks back to normal, just with masks and vaccine checks to help reduce spread.

(10-15-2021 07:46 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-15-2021 07:21 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 11:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

Lets take any of the above and apply them to the John Deere 1 out of 6 issue.

"Enhanced unemployment" -- probably not. Ended in Texas two or so months ago.

"reduction in immigration" -- Again, the impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, has zero impact on that shop floor.

'Changed careers' -- not likely.

'Child care' -- not even close.

Now consider this Bill Maher clip on the attitudes fomented by the media:

Again, the thing that is left out in your smorgasbord is the stupid level of angst, horror, and dread that has been drummed up on this.

You think the John Deere issue is related to COVID hysteria? That seems like a really odd take, given that the strike is related to an issue between the union, John Deere, and union members.

I don’t get you right now - I said “fear of infection” in that post as one possible reason, yet you glossed right over it. Did I not embellish it enough and say rightfully or wrongfully? Some people still have complicating circumstances that do make them more susceptible to infection and some are overly paranoid.

I’m currently in NYC - **** is popping and it does not seem to me like people are huddled up in fear. Life very much looks back to normal, just with masks and vaccine checks to help reduce spread.

Sorry, at the Gillespie county dealership the issue of no one working in the repair bays is not a union issue, or a strike issue. Maybe you should work on your reading comprehension, as some others have suggested to me.