(09-02-2021 02:45 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  AAC minus defections

ECU
memphis
Navy
SMU
south florida
Temple
tulane
Tulsa

Depending on who is added, would we even want to be part of this? tulane, tulsa, smu, so florida? not a whole lot of appeal to me

Maybe a

ECU, Navy, Temple, App, Marshall, JMU division would be appealing.

Seems like we could get similar or even better with a SB / CUSA re-org

(09-02-2021 02:45 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  AAC minus defections

ECU
memphis
Navy
SMU
south florida
Temple
tulane
Tulsa

Depending on who is added, would we even want to be part of this? tulane, tulsa, smu, so florida? not a whole lot of appeal to me

Maybe a

ECU, Navy, Temple, App, Marshall, JMU division would be appealing.

Seems like we could get similar or even better with a SB / CUSA re-org

(09-02-2021 03:26 PM)MarginalDuke Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:45 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  AAC minus defections

ECU
memphis
Navy
SMU
south florida
Temple
tulane
Tulsa

Depending on who is added, would we even want to be part of this? tulane, tulsa, smu, so florida? not a whole lot of appeal to me

Maybe a

ECU, Navy, Temple, App, Marshall, JMU division would be appealing.

Seems like we could get similar or even better with a SB / CUSA re-org

You have to imagine that the AAC sans Houston, UCF, and Cincy really dings the AAC media deal. It's not the Sun Belt we were invited to but I agree with PG that geography is questionable. Not 2013 Sun Belt bad but we always knew the AAC TV revenue would offset things if we traveled to Texas, OK, or LA in the AAC of the past. However, that AAC revenue will really take a hit and so regionalization seems to make the most sense.

All three schools potentially departing would have 40,000+ student populations, all within MSA's with populations north of 2 million. Both extremely valuable to media partners. Those who argue that TV market populations do not matter anymore, are probably correct but the alumni network size and engagement matters a great deal in this new world. It's why Flo likes JMU. It's all a subscription conversion game.

At this point AAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt schools need to recognize that they won't make $10 million a year in TV rights, so might as well have some regional rivalry fun that lowers costs. At this point I'll take anything FBS that is sensible. As high as I was on the AAC, these three departures make me question the conference's value to JMU.

(09-02-2021 03:06 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:45 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  AAC minus defections

ECU
memphis
Navy
SMU
south florida
Temple
tulane
Tulsa

Depending on who is added, would we even want to be part of this? tulane, tulsa, smu, so florida? not a whole lot of appeal to me

Maybe a

ECU, Navy, Temple, App, Marshall, JMU division would be appealing.

Seems like we could get similar or even better with a SB / CUSA re-org

I think the answer is yes - cache and pecking order and perception matters as does budget, facilities, academic reputations and media rights deals (even though they would likely be negotiated down over time). If JMU could get to the AAC with a travel partner even after the Aacs top teams left you make that move. Either way it’s good for JMU because it creates multiple opportunities for them to move up.

(09-02-2021 03:26 PM)MarginalDuke Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 02:45 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  Maybe a

ECU, Navy, Temple, App, Marshall, JMU division would be appealing.

Seems like we could get similar or even better with a SB / CUSA re-org

You have to imagine that the AAC sans Houston, UCF, and Cincy really dings the AAC media deal. It's not the Sun Belt we were invited to but I agree with PG that geography is questionable. Not 2013 Sun Belt bad but we always knew the AAC TV revenue would offset things if we traveled to Texas, OK, or LA in the AAC of the past. However, that AAC revenue will really take a hit and so regionalization seems to make the most sense.

All three schools potentially departing would have 40,000+ student populations, all within MSA's with populations north of 2 million. Both extremely valuable to media partners. Those who argue that TV market populations do not matter anymore, are probably correct but the alumni network size and engagement matters a great deal in this new world. It's why Flo likes JMU. It's all a subscription conversion game.

At this point AAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt schools need to recognize that they won't make $10 million a year in TV rights, so might as well have some regional rivalry fun that lowers costs. At this point I'll take anything FBS that is sensible. As high as I was on the AAC, these three departures make me question the conference's value to JMU.

(09-02-2021 06:39 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  No need to overthink this.
JMU should have been knocking on the AAC door ever since UConn left 2 years ago.
100% YES JMU should jump at an AAC offer. It is a no brainer.
Would you rather have commissioner Mike Aresco who has a relationship with ESPN or Joe D’antonio?

The major problem is that Alger has no clout in the athletic world. Does anyone think he could lead a coalition with App State, Marshall, ODU etc to offer a package entry into the AAC?

Over the last month since Oklahoma and Texas announced they were leaving the Big 12 I have heard and seen countless university presidents and athletic directors on radio/tv promoting their school for realignment positioning. No sightings of JMU at all. Asleep at the wheel.
It is very easy to tell who really wants it and who is passively wishing for something good to happen to them after others determine their own fate.



I think Memphis is probably the lowest on the Big 12’s radar. They are much closer to JMU than to the other AAC teams mentioned. Memphis has 22,000 enrollment much like JMU and much smaller alumni base than other AAC schools to put eyeballs on TV games. Also their athletic budget is only 6% more than JMU. Memphis would be plan F if the best options don’t pan out for the Big 12.
You may ask yourself why Memphis has so much cachet in the NCAA with annual investment that is very similar to JMU.

(09-02-2021 06:39 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  No need to overthink this.
JMU should have been knocking on the AAC door ever since UConn left 2 years ago.
100% YES JMU should jump at an AAC offer. It is a no brainer.

(09-02-2021 08:41 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:39 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  No need to overthink this.
JMU should have been knocking on the AAC door ever since UConn left 2 years ago.
100% YES JMU should jump at an AAC offer. It is a no brainer.

Totally agree. Assuming the AAC loses three or four teams it'll be interesting to see what number they decide on and what their thinking is geographically though, or how much of a factor that even is for them. Something like JMU, Marshall, ODU, App to the AAC sounds great for us and probably for those other three too, but if they lose Houston, Cincinnati, UCF then how's that gonna sound to SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, USF? On top of that, maybe they only add two.

On the bright side, the AAC getting poached pretty heavily might make the AAC an actual possibility for JMU. On the other hand, it's probably still a long shot and if it doesn't happen then it might leave other FBS conferences less desirable than they currently are.

(09-03-2021 01:24 PM)boozeNammo Wrote:  JMU has a spot at the table (its been there since the 90s) no matter what shakes out... the only 'real' issue is exactly as Hart has described. President Alger (and Rose before him). Absent... and that says a lot. No way anything happens with JMU until the Prez steps up and - tacitly or actively - approves of the move or transition. At that point, our proxy advocate would be empowered and take the form of someone else such as JB. This clearly hasn't happened yet. I suspect JB was told in no uncertain terms to back off otherwise he would be moving this forward. It sucks, because the reality is that really only one person is keeping JMU in the CAA and that person is President Alger.

Money and pressure from 'JMU influencers' is the only way this roadblock gets busted down. That, or a turnover of office.

(09-03-2021 02:22 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(09-03-2021 01:24 PM)boozeNammo Wrote:  JMU has a spot at the table (its been there since the 90s) no matter what shakes out... the only 'real' issue is exactly as Hart has described. President Alger (and Rose before him). Absent... and that says a lot. No way anything happens with JMU until the Prez steps up and - tacitly or actively - approves of the move or transition. At that point, our proxy advocate would be empowered and take the form of someone else such as JB. This clearly hasn't happened yet. I suspect JB was told in no uncertain terms to back off otherwise he would be moving this forward. It sucks, because the reality is that really only one person is keeping JMU in the CAA and that person is President Alger.

Money and pressure from 'JMU influencers' is the only way this roadblock gets busted down. That, or a turnover of office.

Is that truly the reality, or reality as how you perceive it?

I will admit it certainly looks that way, but lets take a look at our admin and how they deal with things.
When have they ever announced something prematurely? (JB saying FBS in 18-24 months is not an announcement by the way).
They are always keeping things quiet. Why on earth would this be any different? When it was leaked that the Sun Belt reached out to JMU, that came from outside of JMU's circle. JMU didn't even mention it until much later when they said they were not interested.

Also I'm not sure how Alger can "step up" and tacit. If we move up, he is going to have to approve it, whether or not he had anything to do with it. In my opinion, unless Alger has specifically told JB to say no to ALL FBS options, he won't be in the room until there's a legitimate deal in place. Do you really think we'd turn down the ACC? Unrealistic? Hell yes, but there's zero chance JMU would decline that and say "No thanks, we're happy in the CAA". Come on.
So the question is: there has to be a breaking point. There has to be an offer that JMU will accept and there has to be an offer JMU will NOT accept. What is that line?
The fact is that line is changing every single day. The line 5 years ago isn't the same line as today. A new conference is certainly more possible today than it was 5 years ago. Perhaps that's what would move the needle. That being said, I'm sure there are discussions being had. Some probably go absolutely nowhere and some probably do. Unless we are literally in the room, we just do not know.
JMU is NOT going to just take any offer to go FBS. Accept that. They just are not going to do it. They are going to accept an offer that will benefit JMU in the long term. Accepting to join a conference because of 1 team is not looking long term (Sun Belt/App State).
None of us have any clue what will happen in the next few years. The truth may be that at this current moment JMU has little interest in FBS. But between now and 2025 a LOT can happen. What is a definite no now (and I do not believe there is one) may be a definite yes in a matter of a few years.
Here's the thing that is going to hurt: patience. Give this time to develop. We may be looking back in 4-5 years and laugh at our present selves for how little we knew.
If 2024-25 comes and goes and we are still right where we are today while everyone around us has moved forward, that would be the time to be screaming. Until then, just simmer a little.

(09-03-2021 02:22 PM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(09-03-2021 01:24 PM)boozeNammo Wrote:  JMU has a spot at the table (its been there since the 90s) no matter what shakes out... the only 'real' issue is exactly as Hart has described. President Alger (and Rose before him). Absent... and that says a lot. No way anything happens with JMU until the Prez steps up and - tacitly or actively - approves of the move or transition. At that point, our proxy advocate would be empowered and take the form of someone else such as JB. This clearly hasn't happened yet. I suspect JB was told in no uncertain terms to back off otherwise he would be moving this forward. It sucks, because the reality is that really only one person is keeping JMU in the CAA and that person is President Alger.

Money and pressure from 'JMU influencers' is the only way this roadblock gets busted down. That, or a turnover of office.

Is that truly the reality, or reality as how you perceive it?

I will admit it certainly looks that way, but lets take a look at our admin and how they deal with things.
When have they ever announced something prematurely? (JB saying FBS in 18-24 months is not an announcement by the way).
They are always keeping things quiet. Why on earth would this be any different? When it was leaked that the Sun Belt reached out to JMU, that came from outside of JMU's circle. JMU didn't even mention it until much later when they said they were not interested.

Also I'm not sure how Alger can "step up" and tacit. If we move up, he is going to have to approve it, whether or not he had anything to do with it. In my opinion, unless Alger has specifically told JB to say no to ALL FBS options, he won't be in the room until there's a legitimate deal in place. Do you really think we'd turn down the ACC? Unrealistic? Hell yes, but there's zero chance JMU would decline that and say "No thanks, we're happy in the CAA". Come on.
So the question is: there has to be a breaking point. There has to be an offer that JMU will accept and there has to be an offer JMU will NOT accept. What is that line?
The fact is that line is changing every single day. The line 5 years ago isn't the same line as today. A new conference is certainly more possible today than it was 5 years ago. Perhaps that's what would move the needle. That being said, I'm sure there are discussions being had. Some probably go absolutely nowhere and some probably do. Unless we are literally in the room, we just do not know.
JMU is NOT going to just take any offer to go FBS. Accept that. They just are not going to do it. They are going to accept an offer that will benefit JMU in the long term. Accepting to join a conference because of 1 team is not looking long term (Sun Belt/App State).
None of us have any clue what will happen in the next few years. The truth may be that at this current moment JMU has little interest in FBS. But between now and 2025 a LOT can happen. What is a definite no now (and I do not believe there is one) may be a definite yes in a matter of a few years.
Here's the thing that is going to hurt: patience. Give this time to develop. We may be looking back in 4-5 years and laugh at our present selves for how little we knew.
If 2024-25 comes and goes and we are still right where we are today while everyone around us has moved forward, that would be the time to be screaming. Until then, just simmer a little.