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Rice vs USM - Tomball Owl - 10-26-2020 07:58 PM
Y’all probably know by now how I feel about ESPN predictions, but for consistency ....
ESPN has the Owls with only a 49.1% chance of winning, but has USM as only a 3 point favorite. The Owls stats, limited obviously, are actually a little better than the 1-4 Golden Eagles.
This ESPN prediction actually makes some sense as opposed the last week’s 90+% chance of winning based on no current season stats.
RE: Rice vs USM - Ourland - 10-26-2020 11:14 PM
USM 38, Rice 31. They're at home, and they've played five games.
RE: Rice vs USM - gsloth - 10-27-2020 11:33 AM
USM is now moving on to their third head coach on the season, as the recent interim steps down to take the Austin Peay job. (Austin Peay is playing in the spring.)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/southern-miss-interim-coach-scotty-walden-leaves-for-austin-peay-while-dealing-with-covid-19-per-report/
RE: Rice vs USM - Hambone10 - 10-27-2020 02:32 PM
So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?
We'd better be ready to score. I expect them to throw the ball around. When the guy was OC, he had a team AVERAGE 600 ypg and 50 points.
RE: Rice vs USM - Tomball Owl - 10-27-2020 02:56 PM
ESPN spread is down to 1.5 points, but Owls win probability is still 49.1%. I guess ESPN thinks it doesn't matter who is coaching against the Owls.
RE: Rice vs USM - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-27-2020 06:53 PM
(10-27-2020 02:32 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?
Are we up to our 1st?
RE: Rice vs USM - Grungy - 10-27-2020 07:55 PM
(10-27-2020 02:32 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?
We'd better be ready to score. I expect them to throw the ball around. When the guy was OC, he had a team AVERAGE 600 ypg and 50 points.
Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.
Putting us in an eternal state of "prevent defense" (which rarely works for anyone with less than stellar defense) seems to me to be something our opponents would happily take advantage of.
RE: Rice vs USM - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-27-2020 08:13 PM
(10-27-2020 07:55 PM)Grungy Wrote: Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.
I'm guessing they go 2 or 3 deep at receiver so they can rest them. If you can't stop the deep ball, then you can't stop anything.
Quote:Putting us in an eternal state of "prevent defense" (which rarely works for anyone with less than stellar defense) seems to me to be something our opponents would happily take advantage of.
Prevent defense is the best way to turn a stellar defense into an ordinary one, or worse. It's not designed to stop anyone. It's designed to slow them down enough that they can't catch you. With a 14 point lead with under 2 minutes left, maybe it makes sense. But less than that, not often.
RE: Rice vs USM - Grungy - 10-27-2020 08:20 PM
(10-27-2020 08:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(10-27-2020 07:55 PM)Grungy Wrote: Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.
I'm guessing they go 2 or 3 deep at receiver so they can rest them. If you can't stop the deep ball, then you can't stop anything.
We must have stopped some of the deep balls, because MT didn't score 8 TDs, but I saw too many plays were our DB was within PI range of the receiver, and didn't appear to do anything but be within PI range.
RE: Rice vs USM - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-27-2020 08:41 PM
(10-27-2020 08:20 PM)Grungy Wrote: We must have stopped some of the deep balls, because MT didn't score 8 TDs, but I saw too many plays were our DB was within PI range of the receiver, and didn't appear to do anything but be within PI range.
We've done that for years. Irks me to no end, but we just don't go for the ball nearly as often as we should, IMO. Yes, you guess wrong a few times and give up some big plays. But we are already giving up big plays as it is. Take some chances and force some turnovers.
RE: Rice vs USM - Fort Bend Owl - 10-28-2020 08:36 PM
Hurricane Zeta (it might be a tropical storm by now) is basically over Hattiesburg right now. It's a pretty fast moving storm but it was also quite a bit stronger than predicted when it made landfall earlier today near New Orleans. Hopefully the storm won't cause any damage that will create any issues in that part of Mississippi.
What a strange 2020. Hurricanes still in the Gulf while we're getting fairly robust cold fronts not that far away. And I'm heading off to Lubbock for a day tomorrow and might see a bit of snow or ice on the ground.
RE: Rice vs USM - Tomball Owl - 10-29-2020 02:02 PM
ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?
RE: Rice vs USM - Tiki Owl - 10-29-2020 03:31 PM
(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?
ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.
![[Image: Gpme5e.jpg]](https://i.vgy.me/Gpme5e.jpg)
RE: Rice vs USM - Tomball Owl - 10-29-2020 04:47 PM
(10-29-2020 03:31 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?
ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.
RE: Rice vs USM - wiessguy - 10-29-2020 11:20 PM
Hattiesburg is closer for Corso to travel to
RE: Rice vs USM - OptimisticOwl - 10-30-2020 10:49 AM
(10-29-2020 03:31 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?
ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.
Looks like the A-list to me.
RE: Rice vs USM - Ricefootballnet - 10-30-2020 10:02 PM
So headed towards Hattiesburg Friday morning, and spending the night in New Orleans both Friday and Saturday, with a Saturday day trip up to Hattiesburg. Still lots of hurricane damage around Lake Charles. Lafayette appears relatively unscathed. We took old Highway 90 down through the oil patch service industry area, Morgan City and on into New Orleans.Some downed power lines around Raceland, and the traffic lights were out of service along Poydras Street and Convention Center Boulevard. But the Quarter was in full blast with Halloween weekend revelers. Surprising how many people were out and about without masks. A great meal at Galatoire’s, and we’re headed in to Hattiesburg in the morning. Bluebird weather tomorrow. Great weekend for..outdoor...football.
RE: Rice vs USM - Tomball Owl - 10-31-2020 09:45 AM
GameDay still running the quadruple doink. sigh!
RE: Rice vs USM - cr11owl - 10-31-2020 02:09 PM
We’re back to giving receivers 5 yards of separation.
RE: Rice vs USM - westsidewolf1989 - 10-31-2020 02:16 PM
Predictable start on offense. Two running plays, a bad third down throw and a special teams penalty.