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+---- Thread: Michigan for Trump? (/thread-908624.html)
Michigan for Trump? - Bronco'14 - 10-14-2020 09:28 AM
I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - green - 10-14-2020 09:41 AM
(10-14-2020 09:28 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
https://twitter.com/danielb9600/status/1316356785662496768
BOLO
RE: Michigan for Trump? - UofMstateU - 10-14-2020 09:44 AM
John James has made up a double digit deficit since June to pull within a point in the denate race. THe republicans just dumped millions more on that race and Schumer spent another $5million early this week in that race.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Bronco'14 - 10-14-2020 09:48 AM
(10-14-2020 09:41 AM)green Wrote:(10-14-2020 09:28 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
https://twitter.com/danielb9600/status/1316356785662496768
BOLO
Good! Finally! But he needs to be in the east part of the state.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - rath v2.0 - 10-14-2020 09:49 AM
MI will be close. John James may just pull off the upset, too.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - solohawks - 10-14-2020 09:51 AM
Your crazy governor might help Trump and James pull it off
RE: Michigan for Trump? - rath v2.0 - 10-14-2020 09:55 AM
(10-14-2020 09:28 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
She was up by around 5 points in MI at about this point in 2016.
https://www.mlive.com/news/2016/10/michigan_polls.html
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Bronco'14 - 10-14-2020 10:15 AM
(10-14-2020 09:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:Thank you, so Biden's polling a bit better here. But In 2016 I believe there was a Rasmussen poll that consistently had Trump ahead by 1 here. I haven't seen Rasmussen polls here in MI in 2020. If we had thrown the Rasmussen polls out in 2016, I'm curious what Hilary's lead would've been(10-14-2020 09:28 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
She was up by around 5 points in MI at about this point in 2016.
https://www.mlive.com/news/2016/10/michigan_polls.html
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Redwingtom - 10-14-2020 11:06 AM
(10-14-2020 10:15 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:(10-14-2020 09:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:Thank you, so Biden's polling a bit better here. But In 2016 I believe there was a Rasmussen poll that consistently had Trump ahead by 1 here. I haven't seen Rasmussen polls here in MI in 2020. If we had thrown the Rasmussen polls out in 2016, I'm curious what Hilary's lead would've been(10-14-2020 09:28 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I don't think so - I don't see Trump fighting for it like 2016 & believe the Democrats/Biden are doing much better campaigning here than Hilary - but here's a couple good articles. Union workers still planning on voting against the union, areas that flipped to Trump from Obama still look Trump, etc.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Just thought I'd share. Basically, what people are actually seeing is different from the polls
I've been trying to find what polls had Hilary at at this point in time in MI & stumbled across the 2 articles.
Just comes out to turnout.
She was up by around 5 points in MI at about this point in 2016.
https://www.mlive.com/news/2016/10/michigan_polls.html
Johnson and Stein got over 4.5% of the vote in 2016. No way JoJo pulls that this time around. trump only beat HRC by 11k votes last time. Most polls at 538 only have JoJo polling at 1-2%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
RE: Michigan for Trump? - rath v2.0 - 10-14-2020 11:09 AM
If Trump does well in the exo-suburbs of Detroit, he wins the state again.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Redwingtom - 10-14-2020 11:12 AM
(10-14-2020 11:09 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: If Trump does well in the exo-suburbs of Detroit, he wins the state again.
His appeal to those women should put him safely over the top.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - rath v2.0 - 10-14-2020 11:25 AM
(10-14-2020 09:51 AM)solohawks Wrote: Your crazy governor might help Trump and James pull it off
Yup. Those two supreme court smackdowns resonated with a lot of folks who already didn't like her that much. Lots of them are blue collar democrats.
Then there is Senator Peters who very few people in this state would even be able to recognize if he was standing on a street corner with a sign that said who he was. Dude is a ghost. If minorities in Detroit and Flint break away from the automatic D vote for the career politician old white guy even by just a few percent from normal to actually vote for a black man to represent the state in the U.S. Senate, that race is over.
Peters and Schumer are spending like drunk sailors on shore leave right now. Their internals must not be peachy.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - UofMstateU - 10-14-2020 11:39 AM
Keep in mind that Trump should outperform James in MI. So if James is within a point (and Schumer is spending like he is) then Trump is likely up a couple of points.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - shere khan - 10-14-2020 11:48 AM
(10-14-2020 11:12 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:(10-14-2020 11:09 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: If Trump does well in the exo-suburbs of Detroit, he wins the state again.
His appeal to those women should put him safely over the top.
Right. Trumps not a cuck.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - green - 10-16-2020 09:49 AM
(10-14-2020 09:49 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: MI will be close. John James may just pull off the upset, too.
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1317086523477659648
MOTOR CITY BREAKDOWN
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Bronco'14 - 10-16-2020 09:58 AM
I saw that. It looks like they polled each District equally, so not sure how accurate it is. My guess Plugs has a 3,4 point lead here.
RE: Michigan for Trump? - 450bench - 10-16-2020 09:59 AM
(10-14-2020 11:12 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:(10-14-2020 11:09 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: If Trump does well in the exo-suburbs of Detroit, he wins the state again.
His appeal to those women should put him safely over the top.
Don’t you have some traffic to go play in?
RE: Michigan for Trump? - green - 10-16-2020 10:09 AM
(10-16-2020 09:58 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: I saw that. It looks like they polled each District equally, so not sure how accurate it is. My guess Plugs has a 3,4 point lead here.
https://twitter.com/Jmward01/status/1317102561271296006
AND HOW
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Bronco'14 - 10-16-2020 01:01 PM
Starting to see more Trump & John James ads.......but I thought Trump pulled funding here?
RE: Michigan for Trump? - Redwingtom - 10-16-2020 01:08 PM
(10-16-2020 01:01 PM)Bronco14 Wrote: Starting to see more Trump & John James ads.......but I thought Trump pulled funding here?
Could just be a timing issue of when they paid. He could also pull money in total from the state, but still have more of a focused ad buy in targeted areas.