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Tracking the return of JMU sports (NO more discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Printable Version

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RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - formerjmusprinter84 - 08-16-2020 08:57 PM

(08-14-2020 06:12 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Some HS FB updates..

*North Carolina became the 14th state (as well as Washington DC) this week to suspend fall sports until the winter or spring

*Many counties and school districts in the state of Georgia are suspending HS FB indefinitely. Most notable in recent days include Fulton County (Atlanta) and Bibb County (Macon).

*The state of Florida votes on its fate for HS FB today. Proposals go from starting on Sep. 4 to starting Dec. 11. The state's medical advisory committee strong recommended they delay the start to the season at least 3 to 4 weeks AFTER school starts back.

*The first HS FB games to kickoff in America are TONIGHT in Utah. Alabama and Tennessee are slated to start a week from today.

The FHSAA down here in Florida voted to allow fall sports to start practicing 8/24/20 and competitions to begin as early as 9/4/20. However, in reallity, it will be a county by county decision. Palm Beach County where I coach track and field meets tomorrow I believe.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-17-2020 11:57 AM

A few updates...

1. The Canadian Football League announced this morning that it is cancelling its 2020 season.

2. Another big county in the metro Atlanta area has postponed fall sports. Dekalb County has 19 high schools.

3. The state of Michigan is the latest to postpone fall sports until winter or spring. That's now 15 states plus DC.

4. The SEC is going to release its schedule later today. They announced the opponents, but had not set the actual dates and so forth in previous announcements. Consider this an announcement from the SEC's announcement that later today they will have an announcement.

5. The SWAC is the first (at least for me) I've seen who has actually released their spring FB season. Here it is... https://swac.org/news/2020/8/14/swac-releases-spring-2021-football-schedule.aspx ...starting on Feb. 27th.

6. Craig Haley does a pretty good job breaking down the 18 D1AA programs still planning to play FB this fall... http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20200817122318024068604


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-17-2020 05:28 PM

Big 10+4 taking a lot of heat for dropping FB. Certainly, this doesn't help...

Adam Rittenberg @ESPNRittenberg

#PennState AD Sandy Barbour on #B1G decision: "It is unclear to me whether or not there was a vote. No one’s ever told me there was. I just don’t know whether there actually was a vote by the chancellors and presidents."

Wow.



RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Longhorn - 08-17-2020 06:11 PM

(08-17-2020 05:28 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  Big 10+4 taking a lot of heat for dropping FB. Certainly, this doesn't help...

Adam Rittenberg @ESPNRittenberg

#PennState AD Sandy Barbour on #B1G decision: "It is unclear to me whether or not there was a vote. No one’s ever told me there was. I just don’t know whether there actually was a vote by the chancellors and presidents."

Wow.

Not sure where that AD has been. I recall a vote by Big X Presidents being reported as all for postponing until the Spring with 2 against (one of those no votes belonging to Nebraska). Maybe the PSU AD thought they got to make the decision, but found out that uni Presidents still have the final say.

Speaking of other developments, after only 1 week of on-campus classes, UNC-Chapel Hill has gone to “online only” instruction. An outbreak of the Covid virus at UNCC is being attributed to student parties where masks and other safety measures were not being followed.

With similar stories about student parties being reported at NC St. and Villanova, isn’t it only reasonable to assume we will see other colleges and universities getting stuck in a no-win scenario like UNCC?

JMU freshmen start moving in August 21. I hope both new and returning JMU students refrain (in their excitement of being “free“) from getting too wrapped up in the party scene, ultimately unleashing a Covid breakout. This would force JMU to pull the plug on on-campus classes.

The sad side of all this to me is (knowing JMU students and the general mindset of 18-21 year olds), what happened at UNCC is almost inevitable.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-17-2020 06:28 PM

(08-17-2020 06:11 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  The sad side of all this to me is (knowing JMU students and the general mindset of 18-21 year olds), what happened at UNCC is almost inevitable.

Yep. I made comment to this a week or two ago in one of these threads. Incoming freshmen have been waiting a long time to get to college with their newfound freedom. Add on top of that, many of them have been living under Mom & Dad with limited access to "getting out" for the past 4-5 months. Same for returning JMU students. Multiply that by hundreds of other universities and millions of college students...and...well, this isn't a good recipe for battling a pandemic. In truth, it doesn't make much sense at all really. But, we'll see I guess...


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 08-17-2020 08:57 PM

(08-17-2020 06:11 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  Speaking of other developments, after only 1 week of on-campus classes, UNC-Chapel Hill has gone to “online only” instruction.

So they are effectively shutting down campus, but still plan to go forward with football games?

If so, wow ...

I'd be interested to hear how UVA fares, from what I heard they had fairly extensive plans in place with students being required to sign contracts on behavior, masks, etc. Some there felt it was almost unthinkable to shut down campus due to financial impacts and job losses that would result.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-18-2020 08:42 AM

(08-17-2020 08:57 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(08-17-2020 06:11 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  Speaking of other developments, after only 1 week of on-campus classes, UNC-Chapel Hill has gone to “online only” instruction.

So they are effectively shutting down campus, but still plan to go forward with football games?

If so, wow ...

I'd be interested to hear how UVA fares, from what I heard they had fairly extensive plans in place with students being required to sign contracts on behavior, masks, etc. Some there felt it was almost unthinkable to shut down campus due to financial impacts and job losses that would result.

Most colleges have not yet reported. It will be interesting to see how many go to/convert to online after schools re-open. I don't see how the college student environment won't be super spread situations. As I said earlier - I know DJ will get it when he goes back, but just hope he's not one of the rare cases that produces lasting issues or worse.

Here's the big picture upcoming event to keep an eye on.

1) Colleges re-opening (Major)

2) Live Grade School classes (Medium)

3) October/November when everyone has a cough (Major)
- Will Covid pickup speed, or will it not be as bad since so many have likely had it?
- People will go nutz with everyone coughing
- "most" will display covid symptoms. You think everyone will self quarantine?

The more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths decline, the quicker things can get back to what we want.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-18-2020 08:45 AM

(08-18-2020 08:42 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Most colleges have not yet reported. It will be interesting to see how many go to/convert to online after schools re-open. I don't see how the college student environment won't be super spread situations. As I said earlier - I know DJ will get it when he goes back, but just hope he's not one of the rare cases that produces lasting issues or worse.

Here's the big picture upcoming event to keep an eye on.

1) Colleges re-opening (Major)

2) Live Grade School classes (Medium)

3) October/November when everyone has a cough (Major)
- Will Covid pickup speed, or will it not be as bad since so many have likely had it?
- People will go nutz with everyone coughing
- "most" will display covid symptoms. You think everyone will self quarantine?

The more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths decline, the quicker things can get back to what we want.

I also hope DJ doesn't spread it to anyone in the community who will be affected by it. As a resident, I'm also worried about the impact on grocery stores, retail, and restaurants, especially if a lock down happens again and there's a run on the grocery store.

I'm curious why live grade school classes get a medium.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-18-2020 09:02 AM

(08-18-2020 08:45 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  
(08-18-2020 08:42 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Most colleges have not yet reported. It will be interesting to see how many go to/convert to online after schools re-open. I don't see how the college student environment won't be super spread situations. As I said earlier - I know DJ will get it when he goes back, but just hope he's not one of the rare cases that produces lasting issues or worse.

Here's the big picture upcoming event to keep an eye on.

1) Colleges re-opening (Major)

2) Live Grade School classes (Medium)

3) October/November when everyone has a cough (Major)
- Will Covid pickup speed, or will it not be as bad since so many have likely had it?
- People will go nutz with everyone coughing
- "most" will display covid symptoms. You think everyone will self quarantine?

The more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths decline, the quicker things can get back to what we want.

I also hope DJ doesn't spread it to anyone in the community who will be affected by it. As a resident, I'm also worried about the impact on grocery stores, retail, and restaurants, especially if a lock down happens again and there's a run on the grocery store.

I'm curious why live grade school classes get a medium.

All three are are major events, but relatively speaking I thought it was the least of the three.

Many grade schools are opening in the virtual environment. Also grade school kids are under the guidance of school guide lines at school, and when home staying away from groups. Obviously some states really value kids right not to wear masks more than other states. 01-wingedeagle

College kids will be in groups. Peer pressure will be not to wear masks, and less and less will. Ironically wearing a mask does little to keep the person safe. The best value of a mask is to prevent those that unknowingly have the virus from spreading it to numerous other people.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-18-2020 09:28 AM

(08-18-2020 09:02 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Many grade schools are opening in the virtual environment. Also grade school kids are under the guidance of school guide lines at school, and when home staying away from groups. Obviously some states really value kids right not to wear masks more than other states. 01-wingedeagle

I was just curious as to your thinking.

As someone who's been in the building for these K-12 conversations, I can tell you first hand that many districts who are planning to open physically are not prepared for what will happen. Quite frankly, it doesn't seem like UNC was prepared for what would happen or at least had delusions about how it would play out.

A good case can be made for in-person education for PK-1/2, but after that you start to get into an increased risk of household spread. As I mentioned in a previous post it's very likely that we'll see universities and K-12 schools becoming engines for increased community spread in their communities. I'm very worried about the first, second, and third order effects on Harrisonburg with JMU students coming back. Hopefully the administration can keep as best of a handle on it as they can.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-18-2020 09:38 AM

(08-18-2020 09:28 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  
(08-18-2020 09:02 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Many grade schools are opening in the virtual environment. Also grade school kids are under the guidance of school guide lines at school, and when home staying away from groups. Obviously some states really value kids right not to wear masks more than other states. 01-wingedeagle

I was just curious as to your thinking.

As someone who's been in the building for these K-12 conversations, I can tell you first hand that many districts who are planning to open physically are not prepared for what will happen. Quite frankly, it doesn't seem like UNC was prepared for what would happen or at least had delusions about how it would play out.

A good case can be made for in-person education for PK-1/2, but after that you start to get into an increased risk of household spread. As I mentioned in a previous post it's very likely that we'll see universities and K-12 schools becoming engines for increased community spread in their communities. I'm very worried about the first, second, and third order effects on Harrisonburg with JMU students coming back. Hopefully the administration can keep as best of a handle on it as they can.

DDN

Sadly that is how I see our society right now in general. Those that are willing to power through are more times, than not, willing to do so with less (if any) precautions.


People continually talk about Vaccine being the game changer. Ultimately that is certainly the case. But the real short term game changer would be accurate antibody testing. I had heard in April we could be 2-3 weeks from a test everyone could use. Based on what I have scene, I would not be shocked if 25-100 million already had convid. If we knew who already had covid, that would be a major short term game changer. Why is there minimal, if any, talk about this?


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bcp_jmu - 08-18-2020 11:03 AM

i'll hazard an answer to your question about limited talk of this....if 25-100M people already had covid, then it's just not that deadly overall - those people are walking around and mostly doing just fine if that many people have it. we don't see folks randomly dropping out on the street because they have asymptomatic covid. IF that many people have it, then it would confirm that this is mostly (not completely) a disease (like the flu) that is contagious and really risky for the elderly and those with comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, cancer, etc); conversely, we'd know that having it at those numbers and people not dying all over the place means a) it's not that deadly for healthy people and / or b) we already have reached an early version of herd immunity


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-18-2020 11:42 AM

(08-18-2020 11:03 AM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  i'll hazard an answer to your question about limited talk of this....if 25-100M people already had covid, then it's just not that deadly overall - those people are walking around and mostly doing just fine if that many people have it. we don't see folks randomly dropping out on the street because they have asymptomatic covid. IF that many people have it, then it would confirm that this is mostly (not completely) a disease (like the flu) that is contagious and really risky for the elderly and those with comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, cancer, etc); conversely, we'd know that having it at those numbers and people not dying all over the place means a) it's not that deadly for healthy people and / or b) we already have reached an early version of herd immunity

I mean 42% of American adults are obese, 9.2% severely. About 13% of American adults have diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes. About 48% of American adults have some form of cardiovascular disease, including hypertension. Obviously many of those percentages overlap, but we're not talking about this affecting a 100% healthy population.

The truth of the situation lies somewhere within all of these estimates. It's very likely that a higher % of the population has had COVID than the number of confirmed cases, but most of the estimates are broad ranges. There's increasing evidence that even mild cases provide some sort of immune protection from future reinfection. (We're still only 7 months or so out from the first infections, so we're still on a short-term time frame.) And it's likely that past exposures to coronaviruses give you some kind of immune protection, although we're not sure how much if any.

The herd immunity number probably lies somewhere between the standard 60% and the seemingly low floor of 20%. Even one of the coauthors of the study that produced the 20% floor said she believes it's probably closer to 50%. Generally the herd immunity argument is trying to solve a problem with brute force that we know how to solve with much less death than would be necessary.

But generally speaking, the information we have available to us isn't strong enough for us to make a definitive statement. The risk of the unknown, here, is loss of life, long-term negative health effects, and relatively long-term illnesses along with the "just get it for a few days" folks. The vague notion that we're close to herd immunity is really not what I'd base my public policy on right now, and that's really what we're talking about is public policy that affects 100s of millions of people.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - AllForDukes - 08-18-2020 12:17 PM

On the mask issue. We have been told the mask doesn't protect you, but that it protects everybody from you. As these masks are not one way devices the previous statement makes no sense. If it can protect everyone else from me, then it must be able to protect me. Conversely, if it doesn't protect me how can it protect everyone from me. The real reason for this argument is to motivate people to wear a mask "for everyone else's benefit" because they think too many will be willing to risk it themselves but not for someone else. Same reason they used to tell you to squeeze the air out of a 2 liter soda bottle to keep the soda from going flat. The air (or lack thereof) doesn't keep the soda fizzy, putting the top on tight does. The squeeze the air out mantra was to get you to put the top on tight. JMHO


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - jmufbs - 08-18-2020 12:30 PM

(08-18-2020 12:17 PM)AllForDukes Wrote:  On the mask issue. We have been told the mask doesn't protect you, but that it protects everybody from you. As these masks are not one way devices the previous statement makes no sense. If it can protect everyone else from me, then it must be able to protect me. Conversely, if it doesn't protect me how can it protect everyone from me. The real reason for this argument is to motivate people to wear a mask "for everyone else's benefit" because they think too many will be willing to risk it themselves but not for someone else. Same reason they used to tell you to squeeze the air out of a 2 liter soda bottle to keep the soda from going flat. The air (or lack thereof) doesn't keep the soda fizzy, putting the top on tight does. The squeeze the air out mantra was to get you to put the top on tight. JMHO

the real question revolves around asymptomatic spread. the jury is out on how much of that occurs. The masks do not protect the eyes, where the virus finds its way in just as much as the mouth / nose . you can't cough the virus out of your eyes, so the mask prevents the outflow of the virus from coughing / sneezing, but not the intake through the eyes.
the reality is that if we find out over time that asymptomatic spread is minimal, then in theory the masks will have been much less useful to prevent spread- as those who are sick , with symptoms , should in theory be staying home.
all we have now are best guesses, and you can be sure that will be different from the final studies.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-18-2020 01:02 PM

(08-18-2020 12:17 PM)AllForDukes Wrote:  On the mask issue. We have been told the mask doesn't protect you, but that it protects everybody from you. As these masks are not one way devices the previous statement makes no sense. If it can protect everyone else from me, then it must be able to protect me. Conversely, if it doesn't protect me how can it protect everyone from me. The real reason for this argument is to motivate people to wear a mask "for everyone else's benefit" because they think too many will be willing to risk it themselves but not for someone else. Same reason they used to tell you to squeeze the air out of a 2 liter soda bottle to keep the soda from going flat. The air (or lack thereof) doesn't keep the soda fizzy, putting the top on tight does. The squeeze the air out mantra was to get you to put the top on tight. JMHO

All Dukes - I appreciate your question and understand the rational. This is from the CDC


The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.

These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.



The reason they say to social distance 6 feet away is because this is about the amount droplets typically travel. Now if someone is talking loud or yelling it can travel much further. If you have a mask on, it likely keeps the droplets to yourself and they won't travel. Now if your droplets travel and hit someone else's mask it's very possibly not going to prevent it because it's right there to be held on your mask.

This is a true life situation for me.

Our company went to a mask encouraged company months ago. Pretty much the only one that did not use one was the owner, and those people that interacted with him.

He made comments to me the last few months laughing about people worried a mask or covid. Being honest, I don't see how some smart people don't get it.

On Monday Aug 3th, our very emotional owner went off on 4 employees during a meeting.

Late on Monday Aug 3rd he mentioned to me he "might start wearing a mask". That was a bit out of the blue??? On Aug 4th the owner did not come in because he was not feeling well. He ended up not coming in for the next 9 days. Two days after the Aug 3rd meeting three of the 4 employees in that meeting did not come in because they were not feeling well. All three tested positive for Covid and have not returned to work. One of the 3 is a 62 year old man with prior heart problems. I'm concerned for his life. He's been in and out of the hospital with it. I'm scared to call him each day to find out hows he's doing because his voice is so weak. (today he sounded stronger :-) ). On top of that his wife and recent college grad son got it. Apparently his son got it bad as well, but he's turned the corner. My guess is the 4th employee had covid too but did not show signs.

So one meeting held by an emotional person likely lead to at least 5 cases of covid. I'm hoping one is not fatal.

That's the real life dynamics of this thing.

If the one person had worn a mask, 5 others would not of come down with it.

That's how the virus works.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-18-2020 01:05 PM

(08-18-2020 12:30 PM)jmufbs Wrote:  
(08-18-2020 12:17 PM)AllForDukes Wrote:  On the mask issue. We have been told the mask doesn't protect you, but that it protects everybody from you. As these masks are not one way devices the previous statement makes no sense. If it can protect everyone else from me, then it must be able to protect me. Conversely, if it doesn't protect me how can it protect everyone from me. The real reason for this argument is to motivate people to wear a mask "for everyone else's benefit" because they think too many will be willing to risk it themselves but not for someone else. Same reason they used to tell you to squeeze the air out of a 2 liter soda bottle to keep the soda from going flat. The air (or lack thereof) doesn't keep the soda fizzy, putting the top on tight does. The squeeze the air out mantra was to get you to put the top on tight. JMHO

the real question revolves around asymptomatic spread. the jury is out on how much of that occurs. The masks do not protect the eyes, where the virus finds its way in just as much as the mouth / nose . you can't cough the virus out of your eyes, so the mask prevents the outflow of the virus from coughing / sneezing, but not the intake through the eyes.
the reality is that if we find out over time that asymptomatic spread is minimal, then in theory the masks will have been much less useful to prevent spread- as those who are sick , with symptoms , should in theory be staying home.
all we have now are best guesses, and you can be sure that will be different from the final studies.

FBS - please read my post above yours. The primary benefit of masks is to prevent those that have the virus from spreading it.

If you really want to protect yourself - use a plastic shield, not a mask.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-18-2020 01:09 PM

There’s a lot to parse here, so I’ll do as best as I can.

Masks aren’t 100%. Their role in this is to reduce rates of transmission, not end it. We’re still not 100% how that happens, but we do know that wearing a cloth face mask decreases the number of droplets you put out to be breathed in and it likely decreases the number of droplets you breathe in through your nose and mouth. The effectiveness of cloth face masks is still up for debate, but there are case studies that support their use.

It’s not only asymptomatic spread we need to worry about, there’s also presymptomstic spread. When my wife was contact traced she was asked who she had close contact with in the 48 hours before her symptoms appear. That number has likely changed over the course of the pandemic, and may change again, but you’re spreading the virus whether you know you have it or not even if you go on to develop symptoms.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-18-2020 01:15 PM

(08-18-2020 01:05 PM)Dukester Wrote:  FBS - please read my post above yours. The primary benefit of masks is to prevent those that have the virus from spreading it.

If you really want to protect yourself - use a plastic shield, not a mask.

Please don’t only wear a face shield, a face shield or eye protection should be a supplement to a mask not a substitute. A face shield protects droplets from directly entering your eyes, it also protects your mask from getting spit, snot, vomit, or other boldly fluids on your mask.

There is a case study out of Switzerland that showed the waiters at a restaurant who wore face shields and not face masks got COVID during an outbreak.

Here is a quote from the CDC’s website on the use of face shields.

Quote: A face shield is primarily used for eye protection for the person wearing it. At this time, it is not known what level of protection a face shield provides to people nearby from the spray of respiratory droplets from the wearer. There is currently not enough evidence to support the effectiveness of face shields for source control. Therefore, CDC does not currently recommend use of face shields as a substitute for masks.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html#recent-studies


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-18-2020 07:35 PM

For the few D1AA programs that are apparently going to play a significantly shortened season this fall...are they disallowed from playing in the spring I assume (if there is an actual spring season of course)?

And, if they are allowed to play in both fall and spring how is eligibility determined? I assume fall season seniors are done. Further, will a D1AA team who plays in fall and is allowed to also play in the spring be allowed to qualify for spring season playoffs if there is any?

Hmmmm....what a mess.