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Tracking the return of JMU sports (NO more discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Printable Version

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RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Longhorn - 08-10-2020 09:03 AM

(08-10-2020 08:36 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  This season is so done, it's just a matter of time (hours? days?) before the P5 conference announcements start rolling out. then the G5 will quickly follow. it sucks and unfortunate, but it is what it is. 2020 will just be a year with no college football (or any fall sports)

Against all hope I believe you are correct. We’ll survive without college FB for a year. Let’s just hope we can get a hold on this pandemic before it throws the entire country into a deep recession, or worse depression. They played FB during the 1930s didn’t they?

I used to think Harrisonburg was recession proof with the economy largely based on JMU pumping in $500 million a year of new money, but right now it’s alarming what indicators are showing.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 08-10-2020 09:35 AM

Sad (in a environment with so many unknowns) many people believe they can make better decisions for others, than others can for them self. That is both on a personal and university level.

07-coffee3


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - RamDawg - 08-10-2020 09:50 AM

(08-10-2020 06:21 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 06:16 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  But i thought it was Bourne's fault we arent playing a season this year?

It is Bourne and Alger's fault. You can't just blame one of them. They come as a pair. It is clearly written in Dukes Domain Standard Operating Procedure 48-6.RU.sux...

When posting on Dukes Domain, you must blame everything on Bourne AND Alger. Not just one of them. Blame them both. You can occasionally blame Lou Rowe, but never to exceed your monthly quota of blaming Bourne AND Alger.

I mean, it's right there in the Quality Manual. What's the use of having this site obtain a lame ISO 9001 registration if people aren't going to abide by the SOP's? Sheesh.

04-cheers

I don't have a problem assigning blame where it's due. Team Bourne, Alger, King all get a pass on this one. The blame goes to We the People, the society that isn't capable of doing what needs to be done.

There are small countries all over the Caribbean that rely solely on international travel and their citizens were capable of realizing that fact and we willing to make sacrifices the do what is for the good of everyone's well being. I think of the stories of how the US citizens sacrifices and did what needed to be done during the World Wars. A country of roughly 250,000 people had a total of 31 Covid cases and 1 death. What they did is a complete shut down of their country, 100% for about three week, no one leaves, no one comes, people were given a week to gather necessities. If you were caught in public; you were arrested and jailed for...guess what.....about three weeks. Except for US and Europe travelers, their citizens are pretty much back to living their lives.

I hate it but I believe our only hope is a vaccine because masks aren't some magic tool that's gives you a pass to safely do and go wherever you choose. We the People aren't willing or able to do what really needs to be done.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 08-10-2020 09:58 AM

(08-10-2020 09:03 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 08:36 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  This season is so done, it's just a matter of time (hours? days?) before the P5 conference announcements start rolling out. then the G5 will quickly follow. it sucks and unfortunate, but it is what it is. 2020 will just be a year with no college football (or any fall sports)

Against all hope I believe you are correct. We’ll survive without college FB for a year. Let’s just hope we can get a hold on this pandemic before it throws the entire country into a deep recession, or worse depression. They played FB during the 1930s didn’t they?

I used to think Harrisonburg was recession proof with the economy largely based on JMU pumping in $500 million a year of new money, but right now it’s alarming what indicators are showing.

Nothing surprising here ... JMU basically is the h'burg economy. That and a few chicken factories.

Hope JMU finds a way to safely proceed with a fall semester. If thats not possible, the 'burg will suffer greatly for sure. Almost everyone living there will feel the impacts, whether its from store closings, higher taxes or reduced government services, etc.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-10-2020 10:41 AM

Quick update from the B1G.




RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-10-2020 10:46 AM

(08-10-2020 10:41 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  Quick update from the B1G.


Linky help... https://twitter.com/chrissolari/status/1292844587489406977

Big 10+4 cancels FB...now official. We'll see how quickly the dominoes fall from here.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMaddy - 08-10-2020 10:56 AM

(08-10-2020 06:04 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 09:00 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 07:50 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 04:59 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 11:18 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  I think you’re only fooling yourself if you think it’s going to go away. Under control? Yes, possibly, but the virus is still going to be there. Variations of the Flu, H1N1, Ebola, Mers, other variations of coronavirus diseases are all still in the environment. Now that the COVID-19 virus is in circulation it’s with us forever, like the common cold and any other virus.

Right now the best any person can do is take the proper precautions. Eventually getting vaccinated may be the gold standard in helping stabilize human interaction. In the meantime we wear masks, wash our hands, practice social distancing, disinfect, etc., and place our hope and support in the scientists and medical professionals that are trying to understand and minimize COVID-19’s impact.

Honest question (not necessarily for LH) - since I know we have some on this board who might have experience in this field:
Can immunity be gradually built up in a person after repeated exposure to a virus (live or dead)?

Some of the concern that I have read has to do with the fact that no one really knows how long (if at all) a person will be immune (by building up the antibodies) from this virus after they are exposed to it. Does it last 3 months? 6 months? Longer?

So if a vaccine does come out, might it have to be re-administered every few months (like a booster shot)? If it gives me three months of immunity the first time, could it give me 5 months the next time, and then longer with a third shot? Can the body be trained to start producing the antibodies without additional doses - which might take a few years but bring us back to normalcy?

My guess (hope) is that there will be at least the first version of a vaccine in the next 6 months. It will be really inspiring to know that so many companies, universities, industries, and governments can pull off something major like this in a short period of time if they all focus their attention/resources on it. (Hopefully greed doesn't screw things up, though....)

Excellent questions, and I think DukeDogNation gave a thought answer. My only thought is that the experts are still learning about the disease, and it’s too early to say with any certainty if vaccines will produce a long-term immunity, or even if contracting and then recovering from COVID will provide protection. With roughly a 3.3% mortality rate (162k deaths out of an infected population of 4.9 million) let’s hope treatments will be developed that allow us to get back to something approaching a functioning normality. It’s not just the loss or postponement of sports, the entire economy is near the edge of a major and prolonged downturn.
Covid 19 does not have a 3.3% mortality rate. That is orders of magnitude off. Estimates hover between .1% and .6%.

162k deaths reported as due to COVID. 4.9 million reported cases. That’s 3.3%.

Spin your story that we don’t know if all of those 162k deaths were really due to COVID somewhere else. I’ll go with the John Hopkins numbers.

Edit: We all know Cent’s political leanings. He’s entitled to them, but it’s obvious Cent feels the raw numbers make Cent uncomfortable. I honestly wasn’t making a political comment or trying to make Cent and his political kin look bad. My only point (and why Cent was quick to jump into action) is to point out how terrible things are before we can get back to something approaching normal.

I think his politics drive his feelings but he is correct in one aspect which is the 4.9M cases is only what has been reported and something even the CDC admits is not a reliable number for that half of the ratio. I don't think we'll ever know what the true ratio is, but it is probably somewhere in between your simple calculation based off the reported numbers and some of the projects (even CDC has a projection of 0.26% mortality in some reports, and the widely accepted number is between 0.1% and 1.5%)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/about-us-cases-deaths.html

Accuracy of Data
CDC tracks COVID-19 illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths to monitor trends, detect where outbreaks are occurring, and determine whether public health measures are working. However, counting exact numbers of COVID-19 cases is not possible because COVID-19 can cause mild illness, symptoms might not appear immediately, there are delays in reporting and testing, not everyone who is infected gets tested or seeks medical care, and there are differences in how completely states and territories report their cases.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Potomac - 08-10-2020 10:56 AM

(08-09-2020 09:00 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  Covid 19 does not have a 3.3% mortality rate. That is orders of magnitude off. Estimates hover between .1% and .6%.

I take it you failed all of your math based classes at JMU?

165,756 deaths in the US. 5,210,507 confirmed cases. 3.18%.

That's also assuming that all active cases won't result in a death. In reality, the base is 3.18%.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Pitz - 08-10-2020 11:03 AM

(08-10-2020 10:56 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 09:00 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  Covid 19 does not have a 3.3% mortality rate. That is orders of magnitude off. Estimates hover between .1% and .6%.

I take it you failed all of your math based classes at JMU?

165,756 deaths in the US. 5,210,507 confirmed cases. 3.18%.

That's also assuming that all active cases won't result in a death. In reality, the base is 3.18%.

That would be assuming everyone who has COVID has been tested for it.

Cent and I butt heads on a lot of this in text messages, but there's no sense slinging stupid personal attacks.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bjk3047 - 08-10-2020 11:06 AM

(08-10-2020 10:56 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 09:00 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  Covid 19 does not have a 3.3% mortality rate. That is orders of magnitude off. Estimates hover between .1% and .6%.

I take it you failed all of your math based classes at JMU?

165,756 deaths in the US. 5,210,507 confirmed cases. 3.18%.

That's also assuming that all active cases won't result in a death. In reality, the base is 3.18%.

He was being pedantic about terms being used. Deaths divided by cases gives you Case Fatality Ratio (CFR). Crude Mortality Rate (generally referred to when people say 'mortality rate') is deaths divided by overall total population (regardless of infection).


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Centdukesfan - 08-10-2020 11:06 AM

(08-10-2020 09:35 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Sad (in a environment with so many unknowns) many people believe they can make better decisions for others, than others can for them self. That is both on a personal and university level.

07-coffee3

(08-10-2020 10:56 AM)Potomac Wrote:  
(08-09-2020 09:00 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  Covid 19 does not have a 3.3% mortality rate. That is orders of magnitude off. Estimates hover between .1% and .6%.

I take it you failed all of your math based classes at JMU?

165,756 deaths in the US. 5,210,507 confirmed cases. 3.18%.

That's also assuming that all active cases won't result in a death. In reality, the base is 3.18%.

oh dang you got me!


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - olddawg - 08-10-2020 11:08 AM

If those death totals and stats include the 85+ year olds, then I call BS in including them. Those people usually have a multitude of failing systems in their body. The virus only pushed them over the edge. A trip and fall would just as likely ended their lives as would have contracting the virus.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bjk3047 - 08-10-2020 11:08 AM

(08-10-2020 11:03 AM)Pitz Wrote:  That would be assuming everyone who has COVID has been tested for it.

And what Pitz is referring to is the difference between Case Fatality Rate (that's the statistic that Potomac is referring to) and Infection Fatality Rate - deaths divided by actual infections - a statistic we'll likely never truly have.

Guys, we're all learning together.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bjk3047 - 08-10-2020 11:10 AM

(08-10-2020 11:08 AM)olddawg Wrote:  If those death totals and stats include the 85+ year olds, then I call BS in including them. Those people usually have a multitude of failing systems in their body. The virus only pushed them over the edge. A trip and fall would just as likely ended their lives as would have contracting the virus.

Yep, stats don't count because 85+ people don't count as humans. Send 'em to the glue factory! I'm sure they'd all be perfectly fine with your assessment.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - olddawg - 08-10-2020 11:13 AM

(08-10-2020 11:10 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 11:08 AM)olddawg Wrote:  If those death totals and stats include the 85+ year olds, then I call BS in including them. Those people usually have a multitude of failing systems in their body. The virus only pushed them over the edge. A trip and fall would just as likely ended their lives as would have contracting the virus.

Yep, stats don't count because 85+ people don't count as humans. Send 'em to the glue factory! I'm sure they'd all be perfectly fine with your assessment.

Spoken by someone who's never had a parent in a memory care facility. Listing Covid as a primary cause of death would be ludicrous.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-10-2020 11:14 AM

(08-10-2020 11:08 AM)olddawg Wrote:  If those death totals and stats include the 85+ year olds, then I call BS in including them. Those people usually have a multitude of failing systems in their body. The virus only pushed them over the edge. A trip and fall would just as likely ended their lives as would have contracting the virus.

Hmmmm....any 85+ year olds who die from cancer shouldn't be counted as a cancer victim because a trip and fall would just as likely ended their lives as would contracting cancer? What's next? All smokers who die from COVID shouldn't be counted because they are killing themselves on a daily basis to the inevitable?

I get what you are saying. I do. And, just having a little fun with my reply to place a different viewpoint. And, I admit I should've started my reply with "Jane, you ignorant slut"...but, figure the younger crowd here wouldn't have a clue what I was referencing. Though, I know you would've.

04-cheers


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 08-10-2020 11:14 AM

Quick update from ODU. They’re cancelling fall sports including football.

https://twitter.com/nicoleauerbach/status/1292854540300161026?s=21


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 08-10-2020 11:15 AM

(08-10-2020 10:46 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 10:41 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  Quick update from the B1G.


Linky help... https://twitter.com/chrissolari/status/1292844587489406977

Big 10+4 cancels FB...now official. We'll see how quickly the dominoes fall from here.

Wonder if Iowa and Nebraska "join" the SEC for this year? Those two schools voted against, and the SEC has said they will allow other teams to join this year. Maybe they hope/think the SEC championship will be the defacto NC. It looks like they will be the last ones to drop.


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 08-10-2020 11:16 AM

(08-10-2020 11:14 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  Quick update from ODU. They’re cancelling fall sports including football.

https://twitter.com/nicoleauerbach/status/1292854540300161026?s=21

If I'm ODU - and thank Buddha I'm not - I would blame Alger and Bourne. In fact, Alger and Bourne are the true villains in all of this. They dined on bats from China and started the massive spread throughout the nation and globally. Those morons!

01-lauramac2


RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bjk3047 - 08-10-2020 11:26 AM

(08-10-2020 11:16 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  
(08-10-2020 11:14 AM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  Quick update from ODU. They’re cancelling fall sports including football.

https://twitter.com/nicoleauerbach/status/1292854540300161026?s=21

If I'm ODU - and thank Buddha I'm not - I would blame Alger and Bourne. In fact, Alger and Bourne are the true villains in all of this. They dined on bats from China and started the massive spread throughout the nation and globally. Those morons!

01-lauramac2

Dukeman2 wants you to pass the bat soup!