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+------ Thread: Tracking the return of JMU sports (NO more discussions of validity of covid pandemic) (/thread-901559.html)
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RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 02:24 PM
(07-22-2020 01:55 PM)jmu98 Wrote:(07-22-2020 12:31 PM)Dukester Wrote:(07-22-2020 11:16 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
That's where it get's confusing. Approved in what manner, and if approved how long before it can be rolled out in volume? I know they are making doses in mass quantities, but I've seen multiple people say it's still going to take a decent amount of additional time.
I've seen from the "approved stage" some people say years. I don't recall anything any sooner than 90 days.
Won't go through it again, but in the short term a vaccine could actually slow things down.
As far as rolling out in volume they are doing this in a very different way as they are making these vaccines that are in stage 4 in bulk prior to approval so that they can immediately ship and use. This has never been done before and why it will be a lot faster to market than normal. That being said, it will still take some time to get out to the masses and a plan is needed ahead of time to get the vaccine into the hands of the those that need it most, particularly the older population very quickly. If we are lucky enough to get a vaccine approved by end of October I would think it would take 3-6 months for it to be widely available everywhere, but as more an more people are vaccinated during that period the risk to all will slowly be reduced. The bigger question is will the vaccine deliver both antibodies and t-cell fighting capabilities particularly if the antibodies only last for 3-6 months. The vaccine at Oxford does do both apparently and this could be very important. Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.
Wouldn't it be cheaper and much easier to take a charter to and from on the same day of a 3:30?
Big football players in a 8-10 hour bus ride will take a lot of time. Probably be a couple night hotel stay a long the way as well.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 07-22-2020 03:00 PM
(07-22-2020 01:55 PM)jmu98 Wrote: Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.
Agree with this thought overall, however - if they are able to vaccinate the most vulnerable earlier and get some effective medications, this could be a very manageable situation before that point (albeit with reduced capacities, spacing, masks, etc)
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 03:13 PM
(07-22-2020 03:00 PM)JMURocks Wrote:(07-22-2020 01:55 PM)jmu98 Wrote: Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.
Agree with this thought overall, however - if they are able to vaccinate the most vulnerable earlier and get some effective medications, this could be a very manageable situation before that point (albeit with reduced capacities, spacing, masks, etc)
Or people could think, why move forward now when there will be vaccine given to the masses over the next 3-4 months?
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - LovethoseDukes - 07-22-2020 03:20 PM
(07-22-2020 11:16 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
Call me Debbie Downer if you wish, but if/when a vaccine is approved, I doubt college athletes will be at the top of the list to get the vaccine.
My money is still on no fall sports and I am less optimistic about winter sports.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 07-22-2020 04:00 PM
(07-22-2020 03:13 PM)Dukester Wrote:(07-22-2020 03:00 PM)JMURocks Wrote:(07-22-2020 01:55 PM)jmu98 Wrote: Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.
Agree with this thought overall, however - if they are able to vaccinate the most vulnerable earlier and get some effective medications, this could be a very manageable situation before that point (albeit with reduced capacities, spacing, masks, etc)
Or people could think, why move forward now when there will be vaccine given to the masses over the next 3-4 months?
Judging by the beaches, restaurants, bars, etc ... it seems to me the majority of the population is already fatigued by quarantine mentality. Perhaps a small segment will want to stay holed up longer. As I recall, you yourself said you were taking advantage of the opportunity to travel cheap now.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 04:07 PM
(07-22-2020 04:00 PM)JMURocks Wrote:(07-22-2020 03:13 PM)Dukester Wrote:(07-22-2020 03:00 PM)JMURocks Wrote:(07-22-2020 01:55 PM)jmu98 Wrote: Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.
Agree with this thought overall, however - if they are able to vaccinate the most vulnerable earlier and get some effective medications, this could be a very manageable situation before that point (albeit with reduced capacities, spacing, masks, etc)
Or people could think, why move forward now when there will be vaccine given to the masses over the next 3-4 months?
Judging by the beaches, restaurants, bars, etc ... it seems to me the majority of the population is already fatigued by quarantine mentality. Perhaps a small segment will want to stay holed up longer. As I recall, you yourself said you were taking advantage of the opportunity to travel cheap now.
Yep - have two plane trips schedule in the next 6 weeks. Flights are almost half what they were, and if you are willing to travel on certain days you can find flights about 60-70% off normal prices.
That said I make sure I and those with me take the common sense precautions. When in planes I wipe down everything before getting seated & I use an N95 mask for flights. I also bring my own food.
I drive DJ nutz sometimes when I get on him for having his mask below his nose.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DoubleDogDare - 07-22-2020 06:15 PM
(07-22-2020 01:54 PM)ShadyP Wrote:(07-22-2020 01:39 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1286002808853090304?s=20
https://twitter.com/Shane_DNRSports/status/1286003305639038977?s=20
49 individuals were tested on Monday and all were negative. 33 from men's & women's basketball and 16 late-arrivers from football. Includes athletes and staff. In total since July 6 JMU athletics has had 1 asymptomatic positive out of 146 tests.
pretty impressive and shows real results relavent to JMU athletics.
So positive test results are .68%.
Very impressive.
WVU had 28 football players test positive and has a 8% positive rate (41 out of 518). Given they have done 518 tests, people are clearly getting tested multiple times, so the rate per person is substantially higher than ours. https://wvusports.com/news/2020/7/18/football-covid-19-testing-update.aspx
Several big schools had much larger outbreaks starting in June. LSU >30 football players. Clemson 37 football players, UNC 37 student athletes.
Kansas State had 0 positives during their initial arrival of 96 football players. 2 weeks later they had 14 positives.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 07-22-2020 07:15 PM
(07-22-2020 01:54 PM)ShadyP Wrote:(07-22-2020 01:39 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1286002808853090304?s=20
https://twitter.com/Shane_DNRSports/status/1286003305639038977?s=20
49 individuals were tested on Monday and all were negative. 33 from men's & women's basketball and 16 late-arrivers from football. Includes athletes and staff. In total since July 6 JMU athletics has had 1 asymptomatic positive out of 146 tests.
pretty impressive and shows real results relavent to JMU athletics.
So positive test results are .68%.
What they're doing with athletes is essentially what we should be doing as a society, but don't have the resources to do. Keep everyone at home as much as possible, test as many people as you can, contact trace and isolate the cases quickly. They're essentially in their own bubble right now, so it makes sense that if they've already been tested and they're not interacting with people with unknown COVID status they should all stay COVID negative.
The real test will be if the general student body is allowed on campus, how does the increase in the number of interactions student-athletes are having affect the COVID numbers.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DoubleDogDare - 07-22-2020 08:36 PM
IF the seasons starts, there is no way it is completed. At least not based on current NCAA guidelines.
NCAA says testing at least once a week, at least 72 hours before gametime (to ensure results are received prior to game). They also say that anyone with a "high-risk" exposure with a person who tested positive must quarantine for 14 days, even if the second person tests negative. "High-risk" exposure means being within 6 feet of a person for 15 minutes or having a "collision" with someone.
So we test Wednesday morning, for our Saturday afternoon game. Our team is super safe. 1st team offense only practices with themselves. We don't even think about going live against anyone, even the 3rd and 4th stringers are back at their apartments when the two deep is practicing. My position coach has become an expert at Zoom as film sessions are virtual. I haven't stepped foot in a coach's office all season. Heck I'm a WR and I haven't even seen the WR coach since Week 1 because our coaches are even broken into pods as well and he is with the first string offense (I'm a scrub). The computer lab is capped at 30% capacity to keep us 6 feet apart, but I still got school work to do. Strength coaches are in the weight room allllll day as instead of working out as 5 groups of 20, we are 10 groups of 10 so we have plenty of space. My max bench is way down though cause we don't even use spotters. Thankfully the NCAA has expanded the section on the sideline where we stand during games. Unfortunately, I use to stand next to the coach with a great view of the action but now I'm forced to stand at the goal line and I can't even high five Jack Brown after his TD. Heck we were blowing out Elon, the third game in a row we played them, and I couldn't even get playing time cause the 2nd string QB was still in and coach didn't want to break the sub team pod structure (I told you, we are super safe).
But it was still a typical Wednesday through Friday. I spent time in the weight room with 9 other guys, the APC computer lab with a rotating cast of teammates, the sh!tter in the stall next to a teammate that isn't in my weight lifting or field group, the practice field with my small team of 3rd and 4th string offensive guys, the locker room with wellllllll the entire team at some point (I mean with 10 different lifting groups and basically 4 shifts of "practice" due to the small group structure, the locker is a revolving door of different pods getting ready or showering), and my apartment with my roomates who include the kicker, starting running back, and linebacker.
Well crappppp, I test positive and find out Friday morning. Thankfully it was prior to getting on the bus to head to the away game as then my entire bus would have to quarantine (which by the way we take 4 buses to each away game so that we don't mingle with those other team practice groups). But unfortunately, even with all those precautions, my 3 roommates are definitely out for 14 days. My 9 lifting buddies are out along with our strength coach. My pseudo position coach, who is actually a equipment manager that facetimes with my actual WR coach, since he is grouped with the starters. The entire 3rd and 4th string offense is out. Thankfully my roomates, who I'm with 24/7 since we have online classes, somehow didn't test positive as that would have doubled the amount of players/coaches that are quarantined. So yeah, because I slipped up and got too close to a campus cop just trying to get the scoop on the team at least 20 other guys are out.
And remember those 20 guys are out for 14 days. So the people I interacted with the past 3 days are not playing tomorrow, next saturday (8 days into quarantine) or the third saturday (15th day but nobody is playing in a game after being locked in their bedroom away from the team for the previous 14 days). And again, it was only 20 because my roommates didn't get it and I found out before I got on the team bus.
OH NO! We just found out that my roommate tested positive at the following weeks Wednesday test. He had been quarantined since Friday (when we found out about my positive), but since he didn't test positive until this week, he had "high-risk" exposures with 15 more players (diminishing returns so thankfully he didn't infect 20). Soooo yeah 35 players out the next two weeks. Time to put in the freshman QB without his QB coach (who was near the starting running back at practice and is now quarantined)!
Seems crazy? It isn't. Kansas State went from 0 positives out of 90 players tested to 14 in one week, during summer conditioning drills, aka no blocking drills, no one-on-ones between WR/DB, no tackling, no scrimmages; literally just running sprints.
Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Centdukesfan - 07-23-2020 05:34 AM
This is why teams I think are front loading their cases right now. I can't prove it, but it guarantees that you'll finish the season if everyone has already been infected. I wouldn't be surprised if it's happening
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 07-23-2020 05:57 AM
Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy
Clemson President Jim Clements says school will start fall semester online & delay in-person classes by 4 weeks due to progression of COVID-19 in South Carolina & Upstate region
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - AssyrianDuke - 07-23-2020 07:40 AM
(07-22-2020 03:20 PM)LovethoseDukes Wrote:(07-22-2020 11:16 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
Call me Debbie Downer if you wish, but if/when a vaccine is approved, I doubt college athletes will be at the top of the list to get the vaccine.
My money is still on no fall sports and I am less optimistic about winter sports.
I don't think it's a Deb Downer view. I also don't think younger people will be at the top of the list. But many fans, coaches, and staff members that are older will be and that will hopefully get us several steps closer to the before times.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DoubleDogDare - 07-23-2020 10:30 AM
Something I haven't seen mentioned is the impact of potential interstate travel/quarantine recommendations/mandates. This will certainly change over the next few week/months, but I could easily see this causing sudden schedule cancellations. If a state "mandates" a 14 day quarantine if you have traveled to another hotspot state, you might be saying bye to practice and hosting/traveling to a game the following weekend.
There will be plenty of pressure/incentive for a Governor to provide an exemption for a football team (that literally just spent hours breathing/spitting on and dog piling a bunch of guys from a hot spot state) and/or exemptions for negative test results (that won't be backed by common sense, and scientifically proven, timelines as you cannot definitively state that someone that was exposed on Saturday will test positive by Wednesday - in compliance with NCAA testing of >72 prior to gametime) so perhaps even a statewide "mandate" might not matter in the end.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 07-23-2020 10:56 AM
(07-23-2020 10:30 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: Something I haven't seen mentioned is the impact of potential interstate travel/quarantine recommendations/mandates. This will certainly change over the next few week/months, but I could easily see this causing sudden schedule cancellations. If a state "mandates" a 14 day quarantine if you have traveled to another hotspot state, you might be saying bye to practice and hosting/traveling to a game the following weekend.
There will be plenty of pressure/incentive for a Governor to provide an exemption for a football team (that literally just spent hours breathing/spitting on and dog piling a bunch of guys from a hot spot state) and/or exemptions for negative test results (that won't be backed by common sense, and scientifically proven, timelines as you cannot definitively state that someone that was exposed on Saturday will test positive by Wednesday - in compliance with NCAA testing of >72 prior to gametime) so perhaps even a statewide "mandate" might not matter in the end.
Yep. To state it as simple as possible...it's a mess.
If half of college football is playing and then the other half is closed until spring or whatever, how are eligibility rules going to be deployed/altered? I guess if you play in either fall or spring, you use up one of your years of eligibility? What if you catch COVID and are wiped out for the season? You get a hardship medical redshirt perhaps? Are you allowed to opt out due to fear of catching the disease and still allowed an additional year to play?
It's a mess.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeThaDawg - 07-23-2020 11:46 AM
(07-23-2020 10:30 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: Something I haven't seen mentioned is the impact of potential interstate travel/quarantine recommendations/mandates. This will certainly change over the next few week/months, but I could easily see this causing sudden schedule cancellations. If a state "mandates" a 14 day quarantine if you have traveled to another hotspot state, you might be saying bye to practice and hosting/traveling to a game the following weekend.
There will be plenty of pressure/incentive for a Governor to provide an exemption for a football team (that literally just spent hours breathing/spitting on and dog piling a bunch of guys from a hot spot state) and/or exemptions for negative test results (that won't be backed by common sense, and scientifically proven, timelines as you cannot definitively state that someone that was exposed on Saturday will test positive by Wednesday - in compliance with NCAA testing of >72 prior to gametime) so perhaps even a statewide "mandate" might not matter in the end.
This ^^^ is the problem UConn is facing
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-football/hc-sp-uconn-football-2020-coronavirus-covid-20200713-20200715-5jesomgnozfbzgvqympu43id7e-story.html
Gov. Lamont just said UConn football players would have to quarantine after returning from trips to hot-spot states (such as North Carolina and Mississippi).
https://twitter.com/AlexPutterman/status/1283861889425039361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1283861889425039361%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcsnbbs.com%2Fthread-884193-page-18.html
UConn Coach Edsall brought up a further point
What about teams coming here to play? Do they have to quarantine here for 14 days before playing?
https://twitter.com/RandyEdsall/status/1283867920792256513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1283876681778962432%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcsnbbs.com%2Fthread-884193-page-18.html
On Tuesday, the state of Connecticut added 10 states to its coronavirus travel advisory, including Virginia. Anyone who travels to Connecticut (or New York or New Jersey) from the growing list of restricted states must self-quarantine for 14 days.
https://theathletic.com/1946436/2020/07/23/college-football-travel-states-restricted-lists-coronavirus/
I'm sure Governor's will provide exemptions. NJ has a self-quarantine list of states---But if the Big10 Rutgers gets an exemption, I would guess Monmouth gets one too. There are some FCS schools in CT---in the NEC---who would be affected by this state rule.
Yes, as many have said---This is a big mess
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 07-23-2020 11:46 AM
Randy Peterson @RandyPete
Missouri Valley Conference, of which UNI is included, will have announcement early next week as per 2020 fall football, per email from MVC Football commissioner, Patty Viverito.
Love this culture we live in these days where you have to have an announcement to let folks know about the upcoming announcement.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bcp_jmu - 07-23-2020 12:31 PM
or the 'skins ...announcing that they are about to announce that nothing has happened yet
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-23-2020 12:34 PM
(07-23-2020 05:57 AM)Wear Purple Wrote: Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy
Clemson President Jim Clements says school will start fall semester online & delay in-person classes by 4 weeks due to progression of COVID-19 in South Carolina & Upstate region
Yep - not safe enough for student classes with teachers, but safe enough for 300+ pound students blocking and tackling each other.
Explain that one in court when a player or coach dies.
Not going to happen.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bcp_jmu - 07-23-2020 01:16 PM
Agreed...fall football is not happening
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 07-23-2020 01:17 PM
(07-23-2020 11:46 AM)DukeThaDawg Wrote: Yes, as many have said---This is a big mess
It will be interesting to see if P5 programs or conferences show their hand with regards to student-athletes as employees.
Forget how it looks when students aren't allowed on campus, but athletes are. Try having schools and conferences lobbying state governments to get exemptions from out of state quarantine restrictions for themselves and/or their opponents. Operationally, unless people really start thinking about this problem radically different it's going to be impossible to play even a traditional conference schedule. Not to mention we're still at the beginning of this pandemic by most accounts; there's very little reason to think the fall and into the winter will be better than what we have right now.