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+------ Thread: Tracking the return of JMU sports (NO more discussions of validity of covid pandemic) (/thread-901559.html)
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RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 07-21-2020 03:50 PM
(07-21-2020 03:28 PM)ShadyP Wrote: Sooooooo.....if the aforementioned coach, professor, someone in administration, family member, etc wear a mask they should be good then correct. I mean that is what I have been told everyday for months on radio and TV.
Soooooo......in reality if you choose not to wear a mask that is a risk that the individual has chosen to accept and should not impact anyother mask wearing individual.
And JMU for example is mandating masks for classes and on campus in general.
What I am saying for those in the back then are the only folks at any real risk based the mask data are those individuals and only those individuals that chose not the wear a mask. So seems like we should be good to me then.
I personally have been - frustrated - by the messaging around masks. There is a much more nuanced realty to mask wearing than has been presented.
Let me start by saying...if you're going to be in public wear a mask, but I also want to say limit being in public.
The CDC recently released a press release citing two case studies that suggest that universal mask wearing can reduce the transmission of COVID. Let me repeat that, universal mask wearing can reduce the transmission of COVID. Not eliminate the risk of giving someone COVID, not eliminate the risk of getting COVIN from someone, universal mask wearing can reduce the transmission of COVID. Both case studies provide evidence that mask wearing prevented the spread from someone who had COVID, but it does not provide evidence of what level of protection or the effectiveness of that protection.
But this is where we get into the nuances of public health. Is reducing the transmission of the COVID an important part of our response? Yes. Should we be using mask wearing as our primary response? No. Even the CDC's guidance on mask wearing says, "COVID-19 spreads mainly among people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet), so the use of cloth face coverings is particularly important in settings where people are close to each other or where social distancing is difficult to maintain." So the better of the two options is to not be in close contact with people outside your household.
It's kind of like the vaping vs. smoking debate. Is vaping likely less risky for your health than smoking? Yes. Does that mean you should take up vaping if you weren't before? No.
People have been pushing mask wearing as a silver bullet and it's just not.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeThaDawg - 07-21-2020 04:15 PM
(07-21-2020 02:33 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:(07-21-2020 12:37 PM)Dukester Wrote: Three weeks ago they were all playing. Any guesses for 3 weeks from now?
Thinking as I'm typing so my opinion will change by dinner but....
In 3 weeks all P5 is conference only. This is the only way to build in flexibility for delaying the start of season and any game cancellations mid season.
This effectively forces G5 to go conference only. They are losing out on their P5 payday games so they cancel any remaining FCS games as they focus on bottom line. Each G5 teams schedule is already a mess given the current/forthcoming P5 and FCS decisions, so they can let the other groups drive the outcomes here.
Vast majority of FCS programs don't have the money, or support/energy, to institute the safety precautions the P5 will have and they don't have the big tv contract money influencing decisions. They have already, or will soon, lose their P5/G5 payday games and projected ticket sales will be <25% of normal. Even eliminating the sunk costs (scholarships, coaches / support salaries, random overhead), they will still lose money trying to play a shortened/conference only season. Their main/only revenue producing sport, just lost all of its revenue. So, more than half the FCS conferences cancel before start of season and NCAA steps in and says this is just an exhibition season causing more schools/conferences to bail and pursue Spring season. --- This will take longer than 3 weeks to happen.
This ^^^^ is the shoe we're all waiting to drop. Agree with every point you made.
---All P5's go conference only rivalry OOC
---That falling domino cause G5 to go conference only
---FCS loss of revenue from P5/G5 cancellations, and lack of infrastructure to institute covid-19 precautions---Causes cancellations
---NCAA cancels postseason.
If there somehow is a season, it will be the P5 doing there own thing. The P5 doesn't need to give charity to the G5/FCS for body bag games when they have no revenue to make off those games.
The problem for the G5 is that all of these conferences, except the MAC, are far-flung conferences with many plane ride games. Do these teams even have the budgets to foot the bill without the lost revenue?? Most of these G5 schools have budgets below JMU, and JMU is looking for driving distance games only.
So, even if the G5 goes conference only, that still probably won't alleviate budgetary concerns. Maybe the conferences give their schools some kind of scheduling flexibility, so teams can save their seasons. That would open the door for JMU to schedule driving distance only games.
If the FCS season goes on, then JMU's natural opponents would be teams from the Big South and SoCon. After all the P5/G5 scheduling models get ironed out, those teams will have plenty of open dates.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Longhorn - 07-21-2020 05:11 PM
(07-21-2020 03:36 PM)ShadyP Wrote:(07-20-2020 09:21 PM)Longhorn Wrote:(07-20-2020 09:10 PM)Polish Hammer Wrote: Just find a Walmart, doesn’t matter what town, city or state.
Well, starting today (7.20.20) Walmart corporate said all shoppers would be required to wear a mask. It will be interesting to see how Walmart enforces that decision.
So does that mean Walmart will also enforce folks to stop showing cracks and half their butt also......just saying.
I think AssyrianDuke has it right, and you'll be more likely to see Walmart customers walking around in the buff with only a mask on.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Wear Purple - 07-21-2020 06:47 PM
Mike Garafolo @MikeGarafolo
NFLPA leadership told players on a conference call a few minutes ago there will be zero preseason games this year, sources say. Not a surprise given the league offered that but now all but official, according to the union.
Seems like another daily kicking the can down the road.
Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - jmufbs - 07-21-2020 06:55 PM
(07-21-2020 03:28 PM)ShadyP Wrote:(07-20-2020 01:14 PM)Dukester Wrote:(07-20-2020 12:44 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: The risk of death for college aged athletes seems to be somewhere between .001% and .006%
You're right.
Problem is they still spread the virus. Most everyone of those college aged athletes will come in contact with someone in much higher risk category on a daily basis. Could be a coach, professor, someone in administration, family member, etc.
Would football players over 300 pounds be at a higher risk?
Florida, California, and Texas have all hit their daily high for deaths in the last couple weeks Obviously this is related to the case spread by the younger Americans. States are rolling back restrictions because hospitalizations and death are going up.
If only we had worn masks at the percentages as others across the world. Those dangerous masks Doctors have been wearing daily for the last 75 years.
And if the a concern just for the deaths, or also for the short term and long term damage to someone's health?
It's not too hard to imagine when this mixes with the flu season, how much more complex this will be. Additionally the people I know who have taken the test (about 20) have taken between 5 days and two weeks to get the results. That is not too helpful.
Also, much of the world does contact tracing for cases. When you have 65,000 new cases a day it's impossible to contact trace.
The right to NOT wear a face mask, and to NOT socially distance has really put us behind most of the world in cases, deaths, economy, and sports.
Thankfully the medical community and specialists have improved their ability to care for people with the virus.
Sooooooo.....if the aforementioned coach, professor, someone in administration, family member, etc wear a mask they should be good then correct. I mean that is what I have been told everyday for months on radio and TV.
Soooooo......in reality if you choose not to wear a mask that is a risk that the individual has chosen to accept and should not impact anyother mask wearing individual.
And JMU for example is mandating masks for classes and on campus in general.
What I am saying for those in the back then are the only folks at any real risk based the mask data are those individuals and only those individuals that chose not the wear a mask. So seems like we should be good to me then.
![[Image: EdYswsjXYAA16-F?format=jpg&name=large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdYswsjXYAA16-F?format=jpg&name=large)
Same precautions all of us who are going into an office and working everyday -with no incidents
Many states and employers are open and managing risk correctly
Jmu will do even better .
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Centdukesfan - 07-21-2020 07:54 PM
We will get at least one game this fall
https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/1285660925127733249?s=19
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - olddawg - 07-21-2020 08:24 PM
(07-21-2020 07:54 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: We will get at least one game this fall
https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/1285660925127733249?s=19
Along the same lines-they played the Jan 1, 1942 Rose Bowl in Durham, NC instead of Pasadena. The US was not even a month into WWII and the Gov't banned all large gatherings along the West Coast. Guess they thought the Japanese were going to attack.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DoubleDDuke - 07-21-2020 10:47 PM
This is such a precarious situation. I'm sure Bourne is trying to figure this out but if you can only agree to say, a 7 game schedule, do you just throw in the towel? Each of these deals are pretty hard to execute. I don't really want to go the spring. If most FCS leagues are playing in the fall (which they are as of now) what's to be won in the spring? No, that's just a bad idea.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - DukeDogNation - 07-21-2020 11:03 PM
(07-21-2020 10:47 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: This is such a precarious situation. I'm sure Bourne is trying to figure this out but if you can only agree to say, a 7 game schedule, do you just throw in the towel? Each of these deals are pretty hard to execute. I don't really want to go the spring. If most FCS leagues are playing in the fall (which they are as of now) what's to be won in the spring? No, that's just a bad idea.
I mean I understand the idea that the CAA called it too early and to go our own way until the situation changes, but I haven't seen any reason to think that most FCS conference won't follow suit to cancel/postpone the season. Among FCS, DII, and DIII there may be conferences in remote regions that decide to play a conference schedule; but there's no reason to think the fall will be "better" for COVID than now. Maybe certain regions or states will see lower transmission and case rates and/or a disregard for the risk of the virus and decide to go it on their own. I just don't see the Mid-Atlantic region as a place that will facilitate that outlook.
So I'll bring up my take that this is a move that has very little downside and very little upside for JMU and leave it at that.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 09:26 AM
(07-21-2020 10:47 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: This is such a precarious situation. I'm sure Bourne is trying to figure this out but if you can only agree to say, a 7 game schedule, do you just throw in the towel? Each of these deals are pretty hard to execute. I don't really want to go the spring. If most FCS leagues are playing in the fall (which they are as of now) what's to be won in the spring? No, that's just a bad idea.
I would not think the difference between a 8 game season and a 7 game season would be a deal breaker.
To be honest, playing at all will keep the players and program fresh. If JMU sat out a year of football, and other FCS teams played in the fall it would give those that played in the fall a competitive advantage for next year. If they had spring football, would teams that played in the fall get to have 2 seasons in a school year? Too many obstacles/hurdles. Ain't happening......
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Anders - 07-22-2020 09:39 AM
(07-22-2020 09:26 AM)Dukester Wrote:(07-21-2020 10:47 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: This is such a precarious situation. I'm sure Bourne is trying to figure this out but if you can only agree to say, a 7 game schedule, do you just throw in the towel? Each of these deals are pretty hard to execute. I don't really want to go the spring. If most FCS leagues are playing in the fall (which they are as of now) what's to be won in the spring? No, that's just a bad idea.
I would not think the difference between a 8 game season and a 7 game season would be a deal breaker.
To be honest, playing at all will keep the players and program fresh. If JMU sat out a year of football, and other FCS teams played in the fall it would give those that played in the fall a competitive advantage for next year. If they had spring football, would teams that played in the fall get to have 2 seasons in a school year? Too many obstacles/hurdles. Ain't happening......
Agreed. Seems to me that if roughly half the teams are playing in the Fall (even with limited schedules) then a Spring season will not happen. The Ivy, SWAC, and MEAC may do their own thing and just scheduled a shortened version of conference play. I respect these leagues but ultimately don’t really care what they do since they aren’t part of the FCS playoffs anyways.
I say we continue we push forward and try for the 8 game season this Fall and if new information or risks present themselves, our admin should make the mature decision and postpone/cancel football this year.
We have sunk a lot of money in already so I don’t have a problem with planning to have it and keeping the guys working out safely on campus until we can’t. The test results indicate what we are doing currently is safe and I think the players want to be back together working and conditioning.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 09:42 AM
(07-22-2020 09:39 AM)Anders Wrote:(07-22-2020 09:26 AM)Dukester Wrote:(07-21-2020 10:47 PM)DoubleDDuke Wrote: This is such a precarious situation. I'm sure Bourne is trying to figure this out but if you can only agree to say, a 7 game schedule, do you just throw in the towel? Each of these deals are pretty hard to execute. I don't really want to go the spring. If most FCS leagues are playing in the fall (which they are as of now) what's to be won in the spring? No, that's just a bad idea.
I would not think the difference between a 8 game season and a 7 game season would be a deal breaker.
To be honest, playing at all will keep the players and program fresh. If JMU sat out a year of football, and other FCS teams played in the fall it would give those that played in the fall a competitive advantage for next year. If they had spring football, would teams that played in the fall get to have 2 seasons in a school year? Too many obstacles/hurdles. Ain't happening......
Agreed. Seems to me that if roughly half the teams are playing in the Fall (even with limited schedules) then a Spring season will not happen. The Ivy, SWAC, and MEAC may do their own thing and just scheduled a shortened version of conference play. I respect these leagues but ultimately don’t really care what they do since they aren’t part of the FCS playoffs anyways.
I say we continue we push forward and try for the 8 game season this Fall and if new information or risks present themselves, our admin should make the mature decision and postpone/cancel football this year.
We have sunk a lot of money in already so I don’t have a problem with planning to have it and keeping the guys working out safely on campus until we can’t. The test results indicate what we are doing currently is safe and I think the players want to be back together working and conditioning.
My belief is the admin do not believe there will be football for JMU this fall, BUT is there are teams that play FCS fall football, that want to be one of those teams.
I'll go a step forward, and guess Cig is the driving force behind keeping the hope alive. He's talked about the JMU "brand" on numerous occasions. He wants everyone inside JMU and outside JMU to know that if there is FCS football, JMU will be part of it.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - doubleduke2016 - 07-22-2020 09:49 AM
I'd be surprised if anyone plays this fall and shocked if anyone in FCS plays. However, I guess this move keeps us in the media for a few extra moments when there is not too much for sports media to discuss. Local press, Richmond Press, quite a few local papers of our opponents or CAA brethren, as well as the Athletic and quite a few "higher" profile social media handles have talked about decision. So even if it ends up all being for nothing we still gained a good amount of exposure which can't be too bad for the brand. I can't think it is a terrible thing for the all-star stud in Bangor Maine to pick up his local newspaper and read about how the teams close to him folded pretty quick but his newspaper is talking about how "Powerhouses James Madison and Elon are among those that plan to try." Or the kid in Utah who is looking at his local news online and sees that his local paper is mentioning the newest member of the Dallas Cowboys QB room and how his former team is planning on playing this Fall as an independent. While also reading about how that team won in 2016 and was a runnner-up in 2 of the last 3 National Championships. Will any of those articles have a positive impact on a kid? Who knows. But I imagine it can't hurt and there does not seem to be much risk in setting something up to stay in teh news until the NCAA cancels the playoffs.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMad03 - 07-22-2020 11:04 AM
(07-22-2020 09:49 AM)doubleduke2016 Wrote: I'd be surprised if anyone plays this fall and shocked if anyone in FCS plays. However, I guess this move keeps us in the media for a few extra moments when there is not too much for sports media to discuss. Local press, Richmond Press, quite a few local papers of our opponents or CAA brethren, as well as the Athletic and quite a few "higher" profile social media handles have talked about decision. So even if it ends up all being for nothing we still gained a good amount of exposure which can't be too bad for the brand. I can't think it is a terrible thing for the all-star stud in Bangor Maine to pick up his local newspaper and read about how the teams close to him folded pretty quick but his newspaper is talking about how "Powerhouses James Madison and Elon are among those that plan to try." Or the kid in Utah who is looking at his local news online and sees that his local paper is mentioning the newest member of the Dallas Cowboys QB room and how his former team is planning on playing this Fall as an independent. While also reading about how that team won in 2016 and was a runnner-up in 2 of the last 3 National Championships. Will any of those articles have a positive impact on a kid? Who knows. But I imagine it can't hurt and there does not seem to be much risk in setting something up to stay in teh news until the NCAA cancels the playoffs.
Listening to Bourne's interview a few days ago, I think they saw it as an easy opportunity to strengthen the brand. Only time will tell how serious they are about playing this fall, but if the decision is made to play in the spring, JMU will definitely be on board.
JMU isn't dumb, nor are they careless. Their decisions are generally pretty calculated and they tend to make the right one.
I have no idea what they'll decide to do, but I believe whatever decision they make will be the right one.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - JMURocks - 07-22-2020 11:16 AM
I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - bcp_jmu - 07-22-2020 11:39 AM
That, and Moderna is taking on the cost to already make their vaccine - in advance of phase 3 results - at their own risk...with 500m to 1B production capacity. We are gonna knock this thing back / down to low levels and get back to "normal" by the election (how convenient....)
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Dukester - 07-22-2020 12:31 PM
(07-22-2020 11:16 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
That's where it get's confusing. Approved in what manner, and if approved how long before it can be rolled out in volume? I know they are making doses in mass quantities, but I've seen multiple people say it's still going to take a decent amount of additional time.
I've seen from the "approved stage" some people say years. I don't recall anything any sooner than 90 days.
Won't go through it again, but in the short term a vaccine could actually slow things down.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - Centdukesfan - 07-22-2020 01:39 PM
https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1286002808853090304?s=20
https://twitter.com/Shane_DNRSports/status/1286003305639038977?s=20
49 individuals were tested on Monday and all were negative. 33 from men's & women's basketball and 16 late-arrivers from football. Includes athletes and staff. In total since July 6 JMU athletics has had 1 asymptomatic positive out of 146 tests.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - ShadyP - 07-22-2020 01:54 PM
(07-22-2020 01:39 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1286002808853090304?s=20
https://twitter.com/Shane_DNRSports/status/1286003305639038977?s=20
49 individuals were tested on Monday and all were negative. 33 from men's & women's basketball and 16 late-arrivers from football. Includes athletes and staff. In total since July 6 JMU athletics has had 1 asymptomatic positive out of 146 tests.
pretty impressive and shows real results relavent to JMU athletics.
So positive test results are .68%.
RE: Tracking the return of JMU sports (no discussions of validity of covid pandemic) - jmu98 - 07-22-2020 01:55 PM
(07-22-2020 12:31 PM)Dukester Wrote:(07-22-2020 11:16 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think its still entirely too early to write off the fall season. Multiple drugs and therapeutics are in development and could become available, which could change things dramatically. No guarantee, but its possible.
Pfizer also said today they are hoping their vaccine will be approved as early as October. The US has placed orders for 100 million doses, with the option for an additional 500 million.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/
That's where it get's confusing. Approved in what manner, and if approved how long before it can be rolled out in volume? I know they are making doses in mass quantities, but I've seen multiple people say it's still going to take a decent amount of additional time.
I've seen from the "approved stage" some people say years. I don't recall anything any sooner than 90 days.
Won't go through it again, but in the short term a vaccine could actually slow things down.
As far as rolling out in volume they are doing this in a very different way as they are making these vaccines that are in stage 3 in bulk prior to approval so that they can immediately ship and use. This has never been done before and why it will be a lot faster to market than normal. That being said, it will still take some time to get out to the masses and a plan is needed ahead of time to get the vaccine into the hands of the those that need it most, particularly the older population very quickly. If we are lucky enough to get a vaccine approved by end of October I would think it would take 3-6 months for it to be widely available everywhere, but as more an more people are vaccinated during that period the risk to all will slowly be reduced. The bigger question is will the vaccine deliver both antibodies and t-cell fighting capabilities particularly if the antibodies only last for 3-6 months. The vaccine at Oxford does do both apparently and this could be very important. Ultimately, I expect life to be back to somewhat normal by early summer next year.