(07-16-2020 08:53 AM)doubleduke2016 Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 08:27 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 07:05 AM)doubleduke2016 Wrote:  The leading candidate right now has said they thing they can produce 1 Billion doses a year. Well, with 7 billion people in the world that would mean 7 years to get everyone vaccinated. I'd think for P5 they would be more interested in getting those associated with the team vaccinated and getting tehr games on TV where the real money is. The G5 and FCS will want to get the fans vaccinated so they can get ticket revenue back.

Assume you are referring to the Oxford vaccine as the leading candidate. The US has prepaid for 300 million of those first billion doses, and they are already in Phase 3 testing. First production deliveries are supposed to start in September, though probably having a substantial amount here for the mass public will be closer to Dec/Jan. The US has backed a number of the top candidates this way, with the thought at least a few of them will work out. If only 50% succeed, we still have good odds of having widely available vaccines in the US.

I think Oxford and Moderna go back and forth as to who is currently the leading candidate. Oxford jumped out to an early lead because they based theirs heavily on the MRSA vaccine they were already working on. Moderna is about to start phase III but seemed to have better result sin Phase II.

Regardless, I think the 18-24 months to get the vaccine to the public after it gets approval seems unrealistic. I would expect a very quick turnaround once they finish phase III and get to the FDA approval process. Not the typical 18-24 to get approval and production.

(07-15-2020 06:19 PM)1998JMU Wrote:  Not trying to disrespect anybody's opinions or stance. My neighbor and good friend is a Lead Scientist at one of the top Biochemical research and pharmaceutical companies in the world. When I asked him about this covid-19 mess he told me even if a vaccine were to come out this fall it takes 18-24 months to conduct a "fast tracked" clinical trial before it is FDA approved, it is a very complex, involved and time consuming process with no short cuts. I have known him for 13 years and respect his opinion, he leads a large team and has 25 years of Biochemical engineering experience and directly involved with numerous clinical trials, smart guy very humble. Not advocating anything or pressing any point just mentioning a point of view from my perspective/personal experience. Everyone is entitled to their opinions and research and I respect that so just sharing for the sake of discussion. Fall sports in my opinion may not happen.

(07-16-2020 08:54 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  We don't need to vaccinate everyone in year 1 to return to normal.
vaccines will go the "high risk " groups first , protecting them and allowing the low risk groups to function normally and deal with corona just as they are now with little impact . We have enough Science now to identify those "at risk" and get them protected. That is the first step, and will get us back to normal sooner than later.

(07-16-2020 09:53 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 08:54 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  We don't need to vaccinate everyone in year 1 to return to normal.
vaccines will go the "high risk " groups first , protecting them and allowing the low risk groups to function normally and deal with corona just as they are now with little impact . We have enough Science now to identify those "at risk" and get them protected. That is the first step, and will get us back to normal sooner than later.

Bingo. Well stated.

While I *do* question whether a well-thought-out strategic distribution of a vaccine will actually take place as you've outlined pieces of, I fully agree with your first sentence more than anything. Science is already getting better at treating the virus as-is and I think it will continue to get better as our health professionals learn/share more.

As far as returning to normal, I can see a short-term future (say once vaccines are released to a point where estimated 80+% of population is vaccinated...could be months, not weeks) where restaurants, shopping centers, etc., require proof of vaccination card to enter their facility...but, when you do enter their facility it is no social distancing, no masks, etc., by patrons or workers. Workers will be required to be vaccinated in service organizations (especially healthcare workers, but also airlines, restaurants, etc.) and will be the priority along with most at-risk (elderly) first. As much as I wish this well-thought-out distribution priority would take place, I am skeptical because of the poor behaviors I see in Americans daily and the lack of leadership that exists. Hopefully, both will change as we head into 2021.

(07-16-2020 09:13 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy

How critical is next 2 weeks? Mark Emmert told NCAA Council if decision had to be made now NCAA fall championships (soccer, cross country, volleyball & FCS football) likely would be canceled, sources told @Stadium. FBS officials have said they won’t make decision before late July.

It sounds like the fall championships will just be outright cancelled instead of trying to move them to a spring season. Is it reading too much into it that will also be the mindset by most for fall/winter seasons held in the spring? I'd say cancellations are easier and more likely than rescheduled/postponed seasons.

Side note: I fully expect the NCAA and Frisco, TX to come to an agreement on at least an additional year extension if Frisco "loses" a year of hosting the FCS championship. Just keep kicking that can down the road...

(07-16-2020 11:00 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 09:53 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 08:54 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  We don't need to vaccinate everyone in year 1 to return to normal.
vaccines will go the "high risk " groups first , protecting them and allowing the low risk groups to function normally and deal with corona just as they are now with little impact . We have enough Science now to identify those "at risk" and get them protected. That is the first step, and will get us back to normal sooner than later.

Bingo. Well stated.

While I *do* question whether a well-thought-out strategic distribution of a vaccine will actually take place as you've outlined pieces of, I fully agree with your first sentence more than anything. Science is already getting better at treating the virus as-is and I think it will continue to get better as our health professionals learn/share more.

As far as returning to normal, I can see a short-term future (say once vaccines are released to a point where estimated 80+% of population is vaccinated...could be months, not weeks) where restaurants, shopping centers, etc., require proof of vaccination card to enter their facility...but, when you do enter their facility it is no social distancing, no masks, etc., by patrons or workers. Workers will be required to be vaccinated in service organizations (especially healthcare workers, but also airlines, restaurants, etc.) and will be the priority along with most at-risk (elderly) first. As much as I wish this well-thought-out distribution priority would take place, I am skeptical because of the poor behaviors I see in Americans daily and the lack of leadership that exists. Hopefully, both will change as we head into 2021.

Admittedly I haven't fully kept up with the latest antibodies and immunity research, but >1% of the US population has gotten it and in theory shouldn't need a vaccine. Based on yesterday's new cases (~65k) another 1% of the population (~3M) would be added every 1.5 months. So if a vaccine is 6 months away, 5% of country won't need a vaccine.

Add another 10%(?) of the population that is totally anti-vaccine.

On top of those anti-vacciners there is another 25%(?) of the population that aren't wearing masks so I doubt they are getting a vaccine.

I'll do more research when the time comes but I doubt I will be rushing my two kids under 3 years old to the front of the vaccine line. I'm guessing lots of parents will be weary until there is a better understanding of the long term consequences of a fast tracked vaccine. ~10% of population is under 5/6 years old, so lets take half of them as not getting a vaccine in the next year.

Before I run down this rabbit hole any more, I'm just going to take a wild guess that 50% of the country isn't even interested in a vaccine once it comes out.

(07-16-2020 11:19 AM)Madison 91 Forever Wrote:  No MEAC football this fall; another one bites the dust.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/16/report-meac-cancels-football-season/

(07-16-2020 11:00 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 09:53 AM)Wear Purple Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 08:54 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  We don't need to vaccinate everyone in year 1 to return to normal.
vaccines will go the "high risk " groups first , protecting them and allowing the low risk groups to function normally and deal with corona just as they are now with little impact . We have enough Science now to identify those "at risk" and get them protected. That is the first step, and will get us back to normal sooner than later.

Bingo. Well stated.

While I *do* question whether a well-thought-out strategic distribution of a vaccine will actually take place as you've outlined pieces of, I fully agree with your first sentence more than anything. Science is already getting better at treating the virus as-is and I think it will continue to get better as our health professionals learn/share more.

As far as returning to normal, I can see a short-term future (say once vaccines are released to a point where estimated 80+% of population is vaccinated...could be months, not weeks) where restaurants, shopping centers, etc., require proof of vaccination card to enter their facility...but, when you do enter their facility it is no social distancing, no masks, etc., by patrons or workers. Workers will be required to be vaccinated in service organizations (especially healthcare workers, but also airlines, restaurants, etc.) and will be the priority along with most at-risk (elderly) first. As much as I wish this well-thought-out distribution priority would take place, I am skeptical because of the poor behaviors I see in Americans daily and the lack of leadership that exists. Hopefully, both will change as we head into 2021.

Admittedly I haven't fully kept up with the latest antibodies and immunity research, but >1% of the US population has gotten it and in theory shouldn't need a vaccine. Based on yesterday's new cases (~65k) another 1% of the population (~3M) would be added every 1.5 months. So if a vaccine is 6 months away, 5% of country won't need a vaccine.

Add another 10%(?) of the population that is totally anti-vaccine.

On top of those anti-vacciners there is another 25%(?) of the population that aren't wearing masks so I doubt they are getting a vaccine.

I'll do more research when the time comes but I doubt I will be rushing my two kids under 3 years old to the front of the vaccine line. I'm guessing lots of parents will be weary until there is a better understanding of the long term consequences of a fast tracked vaccine. ~10% of population is under 5/6 years old, so lets take half of them as not getting a vaccine in the next year.

Before I run down this rabbit hole any more, I'm just going to take a wild guess that 50% of the country isn't even interested in a vaccine once it comes out.

(07-16-2020 05:02 PM)DukeQuin Wrote:  No CAA football this fall, per Bruce Feldman.

No CAA fb