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Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Printable Version

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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Cataclysmo - 07-06-2020 05:36 PM

(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  I thought this would be a wise way to go about it but I remember hearing a recent study that the antibodies might not last as long in your body as they previously thought so getting it now might not make you immune for the season. Although given college kids are more likely to be struck by lightning than suffering a severe virus reaction it wouldn't make sense to spread it if there were no benefit.

Not sure if this is the one you're talking about, but a study released today in Lancet showed that, from a representative sampling of Spain's population (>61,000 across the board), only ~5% of people currently had the antibodies for it. Making it really difficult to envision herd immunity as an objective.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 07-06-2020 05:52 PM

(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

So it's nothing more than an insurance fraud scheme? Zero deaths it is. Off to Facebook I go.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - converrl - 07-06-2020 08:31 PM

(07-06-2020 05:52 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

So it's nothing more than an insurance fraud scheme? Zero deaths it is. Off to Facebook I go.

Not what I said at all, but fine...distort my meaning...that's SOP for your ilk.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 07-06-2020 09:18 PM

(07-06-2020 08:31 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:52 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

So it's nothing more than an insurance fraud scheme? Zero deaths it is. Off to Facebook I go.

Not what I said at all, but fine...distort my meaning...that's SOP for your ilk.

What's my ilk?


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rtaylor - 07-06-2020 10:13 PM

(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

03-lmfao unvarnished? Coming from the boards conspiracy crazy person? Lololololololol


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - converrl - 07-06-2020 11:07 PM

(07-06-2020 09:18 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 08:31 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:52 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

So it's nothing more than an insurance fraud scheme? Zero deaths it is. Off to Facebook I go.

Not what I said at all, but fine...distort my meaning...that's SOP for your ilk.

What's my ilk?

left


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - converrl - 07-06-2020 11:08 PM

(07-06-2020 10:13 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

03-lmfao unvarnished? Coming from the boards conspiracy crazy person? Lololololololol

laugh all you want...facts are facts.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - the_dude - 07-07-2020 05:20 AM

While covid cases in Ohio may be rising for the last few weeks, Ohio covid deaths per day is continuing to drop, and now sits at around 15/day. This is outside of the top 5 causes of death in Ohio (around 1/5 of what heart disease kills per day) and puts the current covid deaths/day about on par with Alzheimer's counts.

Those are the facts, hopefully the last couple of weeks of people social distancing more and masks being more common, those numbers will drop more and keep shoving covid down the cause-of-death list. This along with the fact that the covid vaccine ETA still being tbd and most likely will only be 50% effective anyway, as well as the new research showing that herd immunity may not be possible, this may really be a new normal.

(Opinion time): We may just have to accept that covid is here to stay just like the common cold or flu (not debating transmission rates or death rates, just continued prevalence). If true, the people who are still promoting sheltering-in-place will eventually figure out that the end of covid is probably not coming anytime soon and they will have to get back to living their lives, most likely with washed hands, sanitizer, and masks when appropriate.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Z-Fly - 07-07-2020 05:44 AM

(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  I thought this would be a wise way to go about it but I remember hearing a recent study that the antibodies might not last as long in your body as they previously thought so getting it now might not make you immune for the season. Although given college kids are more likely to be struck by lightning than suffering a severe virus reaction it wouldn't make sense to spread it if there were no benefit.

Not sure if this is the one you're talking about, but a study released today in Lancet showed that, from a representative sampling of Spain's population (>61,000 across the board), only ~5% of people currently had the antibodies for it. Making it really difficult to envision herd immunity as an objective.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

If you believe this, and I don't, this would be the virus to end it all. Vaccines wouldn't work and the virus could infect you week after week. That's never really happened before. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen.

I don't think they are necessarily lying. I just don't think they exactly know what they looking for. It might be wishful thinking on my part. Nature always seems to sort this out on it's own.

I look at an area like New York. The virus has pretty close to burned itself out. You are going to tell that's due to T-Shirt masks. I don't believe that's the case. According to top scientists T-Shirt masks buy you an extra few minutes of exposure time. Mathematically it doesn't seem like that would cause the curve to nose dive like it has. I'm guessing that it more has to do with herd immunity.

I will turn this back on you. If you believe that herd immunity is impossible, what's the move? And this isn't an attack on you. I actually would like to know your thoughts.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 07-07-2020 06:41 AM

After 10 straight weeks of declining mortality rates we are thankfully on the verge of the CDC removing Covid from its epidemic classification due to not meeting the benchmarks it establishes...will be interesting to watch the goalposts move again when that happens because you’d need a search warrant to find this info in the news...instead you can go to the CDC website.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Z-Fly - 07-07-2020 08:03 AM

(07-07-2020 06:41 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  After 10 straight weeks of declining mortality rates we are thankfully on the verge of the CDC removing Covid from its epidemic classification due to not meeting the benchmarks it establishes...will be interesting to watch the goalposts move again when that happens because you’d need a search warrant to find this info in the news...instead you can go to the CDC website.

Wow. That's incredible. Where would I find this information at on the CDC website?


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 07-07-2020 08:03 AM

(07-06-2020 11:07 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 09:18 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 08:31 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:52 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(07-06-2020 05:36 PM)converrl Wrote:  Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.

So it's nothing more than an insurance fraud scheme? Zero deaths it is. Off to Facebook I go.

Not what I said at all, but fine...distort my meaning...that's SOP for your ilk.

What's my ilk?

left

Mmmkay. 03-lmfao


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Cataclysmo - 07-07-2020 08:10 AM

(07-07-2020 08:03 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  
(07-07-2020 06:41 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  After 10 straight weeks of declining mortality rates we are thankfully on the verge of the CDC removing Covid from its epidemic classification due to not meeting the benchmarks it establishes...will be interesting to watch the goalposts move again when that happens because you’d need a search warrant to find this info in the news...instead you can go to the CDC website.

Wow. That's incredible. Where would I find this information at on the CDC website?

I'm not sure where this comes from. The CDC director said a week ago that "this is really the beginning"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 07-07-2020 08:21 AM

Last week all UR death certs dropped again to 5.9% after 10 straight weeks of decline. The CDC lumps flu and pneumonia in with Covid since there are often chicken and egg debates about causation and classification. 5.9% is the CDC threshold for Covid epidemiological status. Next week will be an interesting case study in goalpost movement and group think.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Cataclysmo - 07-07-2020 08:25 AM

(07-07-2020 05:44 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  If you believe this, and I don't, this would be the virus to end it all. Vaccines wouldn't work and the virus could infect you week after week. That's never really happened before. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen.

I don't think they are necessarily lying. I just don't think they exactly know what they looking for. It might be wishful thinking on my part. Nature always seems to sort this out on it's own.

I look at an area like New York. The virus has pretty close to burned itself out. You are going to tell that's due to T-Shirt masks. I don't believe that's the case. According to top scientists T-Shirt masks buy you an extra few minutes of exposure time. Mathematically it doesn't seem like that would cause the curve to nose dive like it has. I'm guessing that it more has to do with herd immunity.

I will turn this back on you. If you believe that herd immunity is impossible, what's the move? And this isn't an attack on you. I actually would like to know your thoughts.

So I think it's misguided to use the word "believe" here. I don't "believe" that 5% of the Spanish population has the antibody, it's simply the best analysis that has been conducted thus far. One paper out of what will eventually be thousands. However, it's also a good paper, with a large sample population, a robust sampling technique, and peer reviewed in one of the best journals in the world. That means that it's probably the best estimate we have so far, but I'd caution there are a number of factors at play, namely that Spain is completely different than the US.

The simplest explanation for why states like New York seem to be doing better is because they have gotten better in a few key areas. From the blog I posted above:

Quote:But as the share of patients with infections from community transmission increases, the mortality rate has still declined. Several factors might explain this: Current patients are younger and less likely to die, hospitals are admitting less severe cases because more beds are available, and doctors and nurses have learned from experience. Bob Wachter, chair of the University of California-San Francisco Department of Medicine, posted a list of “Things We’ve Gotten Better At Since March”; it includes a number of improvements that could affect in-hospital mortality, such as better monitoring of vital signs and a more effective use of prone (face-down) positioning, which has been observed to improve oxygen levels in severely ill COVID-19 patients.

So, to Rath's point about Mortality, that really is the most important statistic to track here. And it's encouraging that things have been trending downward for quite some time.

Here's my concern; we all know that mortality is a lagging indicator, so what are the warning signs that might preempt an increase in mortality?

1. The daily case diagnosis goes up. And it has, drastically. But many have written that off as the result of increased testing capacity. Okay, then...
2. The positivisty rate increases. It has, drastically. Many have written that off as a result of younger people having increased access to testing. Okay, fair, then...
3. Increases in hospitalizations. Now we are seeing people write this off as the byproduct of increased hospital capacity, and a tendency to lump non-covid centric hospitalizations in with the rest...but then...
4. Individual increases in state mortality. And that's what's most concerning of all, specifically in hotbeds like Florida, Arizona, and Texas. While other states have seemingly handled reopening efforts well, a few key states have seen the opposite. The tweet I posted above, with research from Bernstein analyzing state trends, describes it as Simpson's paradox--where increases in state mortality are not immediately apparent in national trends.

My quesition is, what happens if mortality does increase suddenly and we begin to approach 2K deaths/day once again? Football is almost certainly not happening in that case. But more importantly, we probably look back on this period as the time when we should've heeded the warning signs.

FWIW, I've been in favor of reopening for awhile now. That's not to attain herd immunity, but to instead understand what capacity we have for coexisting with the virus until a vaccine is produced. That gives us about 6-8 months before we have a better idea of whether that comes to fruition. Beyond that, it'll be pretty chaotic.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 07-07-2020 09:30 AM

I’ll give you a tip that you may not appreciate now but could someday. It’s a central point in classes that I give to new attorneys but is a transferable skill to any endeavor.

I have never lost a case at trial. Now that doesn’t mean I am Perry Mason of civil cases or that I am brighter than anyone at the other table. Quite the opposite on both counts.

It means this: I was taught something early that most people, especially attorneys who advocate never quite grasp. First, be scared of what you don’t know that you don’t know. More importantly, and this is where our society collectively fails spectacularly in this age of intractable issue advocacy, always assume you could be wrong and try every day to prove to yourself, not that you are correct, but that you missed the trees due to the forest. It happens more to all of us than we care to admit. That is the true meaning of “taking the red pill”.

Nobody was more concerned about the seriousness of this virus in March and April than me. The more I have tried to discover what I don’t know that I don’t know, the more that I worked to prove myself wrong, the more pros I have spoken to on the topic, and the less that I’ve just accepted what the group thinks, the more my views on this have changed. It’s not nearly as deadly and not nearly as easily spread as we were made to accept as fact.

Right now, this is the flu which is in itself very serious for a small segment of the population. Those people should take all appropriate steps to protect themselves. It’s just not grab your bug out bag serious for the rest of us. We have another flu season to contend with going forward.

We will likely have another big wave of this in late summer and early fall but it will miraculously dissipate by thanksgiving.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - skylinecat - 07-07-2020 09:45 AM

(07-07-2020 09:30 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I’ll give you a tip that you may not appreciate now but could someday. It’s a central point in classes that I give to new attorneys but is a transferable skill to any endeavor.

I have never lost a case at trial. Now that doesn’t mean I am Perry Mason of civil cases or that I am brighter than anyone at the other table. Quite the opposite on both counts.

It means this: I was taught something early that most people, especially attorneys who advocate never quite grasp. First, be scared of what you don’t know that you don’t know. More importantly, and this is where our society collectively fails spectacularly in this age of intractable issue advocacy, always assume you could be wrong and try every day to prove to yourself, not that you are correct, but that you missed the trees due to the forest. It happens more to all of us than we care to admit. That is the true meaning of “taking the red pill”.

Nobody was more concerned about the seriousness of this virus in March and April than me. The more I have tried to discover what I don’t know that I don’t know, the more that I worked to prove myself wrong, the more pros I have spoken to on the topic, and the less that I’ve just accepted what the group thinks, the more my views on this have changed. It’s not nearly as deadly and not nearly as easily spread as we were made to accept as fact.

Right now, this is the flu which is in itself very serious for a small segment of the population. Those people should take all appropriate steps to protect themselves. It’s just not grab your bug out bag serious for the rest of us. We have another flu season to contend with going forward.

We will likely have another big wave of this in late summer and early fall but it will miraculously dissipate by thanksgiving.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/07/06/international-students-must-take-classes-person-stay-country-legally-this-fall-ice-announces/

How is this going to effect Metz, our punter, and Mamadou Diarra? The article I found doesn't really say if it is going to apply to athletic scholarships.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 07-07-2020 09:48 AM

There will be classes for them to attend.

For several reasons, not the least of which is schools will not want to lose the revenue streams from the oodles of foreign students. It will be a near miracle how many pandemic policies will be tweaked in short order if this holds up.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - skylinecat - 07-07-2020 09:50 AM

(07-07-2020 09:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  There will be classes for them to attend.

Hope so. I can't imagine how pissed people are going to be if not. In a normal year, Gonzaga might not be able to field a basketball team if they couldn't have international players.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Cataclysmo - 07-07-2020 09:58 AM

I agree with the premise about taking the red pill. Far too often people aren't comfortable acknowledging the extent of their ignorance.

But our conclusions are different.

From my perspective, this issue metastasizes because when people don't know something for certain, or when the answer isn't as clear as they'd like, they immediately paint a broad brush of skepticism that ostracizes large groups and instead invests faith in non-experts. Fauci isn't telling us promising things, right? So as soon as someone can point out an inconsistency with something Fauci says, it's easier to disregard his authority and instead revert to a preconceived notion that things are okay.

So how do you correct this? I'm reading through the primary literature, almost daily, partly because it's somewhat relevant to my field and partly because it's far more useful to parse the sources than it is to invest your faith in public health policy or cable news. And when I go through the most recent data, you see some disturbing trends that are eerily reminiscent of what occurred the first time around. Do I have a solution? No. But pretending this will miraculously dissipate is exactly the mentality I'd hope we could avoid this time around.