(04-28-2020 08:59 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(04-28-2020 08:35 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  You know, Google scholar made all coronavirus publications free during this pandemic. You could try reading the actual scientific literature that goes in to these reports, instead of waiting for journalist to frame the results for their own respective media outlets.

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I don't know that journalists even exist anymore.

However, while I was more or less just supporting Jeff's take on the media, I do agree that it would behoove everyone to do their best to gather all information available to make their own decisions rather than just believe what they're being told.

(04-28-2020 09:15 AM)namrag Wrote:  New data yesterday from the Hoover Institute out of Stanford...

The good news:

-Statistics out of New York State show that 99.2% of deaths in that state were in patients with at least 1 risk factor.

-88% of hospitalizations in that state were in patients with 2 or more risk factors.

So healthy people without risk factors have very little to worry about.


The bad news:

-60% of the US population have at least 1 risk factor.

-40% of the US population have 2 or more risk factors.

(04-26-2020 01:16 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(04-26-2020 12:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(04-26-2020 12:19 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  Nebraska announced that it will be opening campus up for Fall semester. And as you can read from this article, so have many other schools including P5 North Carolina State, Iowa, Arizona, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest.

There are many schools that are quoted as "leaning" towards opening in for the Fall semester, including that school in Columbus.

If students are on campus, you can bet football will be played.

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-List-of-Colleges-/248626

I have no idea how this can be done without a vaccine. Is Covid-19 just going to go away in four months? This looks a disaster because I doubt college students will social distance and wear a mask, let alone maintain good hygiene. Will faculty and staff be on board with this? I just don't understand why we as a society continue to rush opening up things without carefully thought out coordination across the country. Listen to science, not politicians or business leaders.

Listen to science....
Will you take some time to listen to real front line doctors? Not the media, politicians, and ivory tower academic medical people.

https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU

(04-28-2020 09:27 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(04-28-2020 09:15 AM)namrag Wrote:  New data yesterday from the Hoover Institute out of Stanford...

The good news:

-Statistics out of New York State show that 99.2% of deaths in that state were in patients with at least 1 risk factor.

-88% of hospitalizations in that state were in patients with 2 or more risk factors.

So healthy people without risk factors have very little to worry about.


The bad news:

-60% of the US population have at least 1 risk factor.

-40% of the US population have 2 or more risk factors.

Thanks, great info.

I think this is the basic trend on where the data is heading. Based on that I think that those of us who don't have any of the risk factors should be able to operate as normal while taking extra precautions in public. Those with multiple risk factors should probably avoid unnecessary contacts but again in a free country if they knowing accept the risk that should be their choice.

I'm in favor of a pretty broad reopening with the exceptions of arena/stadium events, theaters, and probably requiring restaurants go every other table for the time being.

(05-01-2020 07:39 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  You think China is fudging their numbers yet the worldwide mortality rate is LOWER than what's being reported?

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(05-01-2020 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Okay so how did that lead you to the conclusion that the worldwide numbers are underreported? There were estimates that the death toll in Wuhan was upwards of 40,000 greater than what was reported by the Chinese government.

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(05-01-2020 01:40 PM)ladeda Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Okay so how did that lead you to the conclusion that the worldwide numbers are underreported? There were estimates that the death toll in Wuhan was upwards of 40,000 greater than what was reported by the Chinese government.

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# of cases will be under reported by every Country, because no Country is able to test their entire population. People with mild cases aren't getting tested and people with no symptoms aren't getting tested.

(05-01-2020 02:55 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 01:40 PM)ladeda Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Okay so how did that lead you to the conclusion that the worldwide numbers are underreported? There were estimates that the death toll in Wuhan was upwards of 40,000 greater than what was reported by the Chinese government.

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# of cases will be under reported by every Country, because no Country is able to test their entire population. People with mild cases aren't getting tested and people with no symptoms aren't getting tested.

That's what I would think as well. I'm not sure why people think there's some grand conspiracy in which every country in the world is just deliberately inflating their mortality rates. What would they gain from that?

(05-01-2020 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Okay so how did that lead you to the conclusion that the worldwide numbers are underreported? There were estimates that the death toll in Wuhan was upwards of 40,000 greater than what was reported by the Chinese government.

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Quote:With the coronavirus pandemic affecting sports calendars worldwide, conference commissioners and athletic directors across the United States are considering every alternative to college football's current Aug. 29 start date, including playing the entire season in the spring of 2021.

The worst-case scenario in college athletics would be canceling the entire season. It's a possibility decision-makers throughout the sport are determined to avoid while acknowledging it's something they can't fully control.

The people who ultimately will decide when college football returns will include federal government officials and state governors, plus the newly formed NCAA medical advisory panel and a host of NCAA subcommittees.

ESPN interviewed dozens of athletic directors, coaches and commissioners from the 10 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences over the past few weeks about what the future might hold for college football based on their ongoing daily discussions, which change constantly as new information emerges. So far, the consensus is that while no one knows what will happen next, officials are determined to save the season in one way or another.

"There isn't a model I can run to fix the problem of not having any football," UCF athletic director Danny White said. "I don't think there's anybody in my position with a big football fan base that could make decisions to fix that. I don't know what happens -- there's not a model, there's not a solution, there's not an action I can take that's going to solve that problem."

Several conference commissioners told ESPN the first and most important step is determining when it's safe to reopen campuses -- a decision they said they will leave to medical experts and government officials. (Brown University's president wrote this week in The New York Times that opening campuses this fall should be a "national priority." Stanford's president, meanwhile, said Tuesday he does not expect a decision about the fall quarter until sometime in June.)

Among the scenarios under consideration: a shortened season in which leagues would primarily play conference games; a delayed start to a full fall season; a spring season; or starting on time, but without fans. There also could be some combination of these scenarios. Officials also are bracing for the possibility of what several have referred to as an "interrupted season," in which the season begins but has to stop because a second wave of the virus hits. There's no specific timetable to make these decisions, but most coaches say they would need about two months to get their teams ready.

Miami coach Manny Diaz might have summed up the entire situation best.

"We all know what we want, but we've encountered something that's unprecedented," Diaz said. "We have to play it out and see what we can get. That's the difference. Let's see how good we can get it. I believe we'll all be appreciative for whatever we get."

There are many questions about what the season will look like when it actually begins. Among the most pressing: What if a full season cannot be played?

Every athletic director and coach we spoke to wants to do everything in their power to get in the entire season, and there are obvious reasons for that. Coaches do not want to take away playing opportunities from their players, especially since they have only 12 games to start with, far fewer than other sports.

What's more, the financial implications of playing a shortened season would be substantial, not only for Power 5 schools but also for FCS and Group of 5 programs that rely so heavily on guarantee nonconference games.

That becomes a much larger issue if a shortened season means going to a conference-only game scenario.

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said if the season has to be shortened, the easiest solution might be to make the reduction "calendar-based more than anything, like the first two weeks don't happen."

"I understand the importance of conference schedules, but [there are] complexities of trying to move games within the season as opposed to just doing it based off a calendar," Swarbrick said. "If you start saying, 'We're going to take this game and we were going to be in City X and we're moving it to a different date,' that's not easy to do from a travel, from an accommodations, from a fan/ticket sales dynamic."

According to ESPN Stats & Information, no major college football team has played a game between February and July since the 19th century. But a spring 2021 model likely avoids some obstacles a fall 2020 season carries. Campuses are expected to be open by then, and teams will have ample time to prepare after a long and strange layoff. Pushing back the season also buys time for improved testing, treatments and other developments that would make games safer for participants, stadium personnel and fans.

"[A spring schedule is] getting more and more discussion," Aresco said. "Would you be able to play right after the Super Bowl and play an eight- or 10-game schedule and still have a short playoff? You probably could, and you might try hard to do it because football is so important on a lot of levels, but the financial [impact] is huge."

A spring season likely would begin sometime in February and run through May, with postseason games in late May or June. The regular season would run concurrent with the NCAA basketball tournaments, and bowl games or the College Football Playoff could overlap with spring championships. Television schedules, including many involving ESPN, would have to be adjusted.

Another concern is how a spring season would affect the future, for college teams and players with NFL aspirations. Teams use the spring to spin forward: winter conditioning in January and February; practices in March and April; recruiting in May.

More recruits are enrolling midyear to capitalize on a full offseason program. How would a spring season affect them, or change roster and scholarship limits?

"Do you know how screwed up the football season would be if we started in February?" Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said. "Are you going to play next September, too? You're running one season into another. You screwed up another spring, you never get back on track."

A spring season also impacts the NFL and players aspiring to reach the sport's top level. The entire NFL draft timeline -- the Senior Bowl and other competitions in January, scouting combine in late February, individual pro days in March, draft in April -- would likely move back significantly. Would there even be a combine? Would the NFL hold its draft during the college postseason, like Major League Baseball does during the College World Series?

College football players regularly skip bowl games to preserve themselves for the draft. Would a player such as Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence really play in the spring when he'd be mere weeks away from a multimillion-dollar contract?

"Your guys that were either going to graduate or declare early, there would have to be some type of agreement with the NFL," Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said. "That's going to affect draft preparation."

Coaches and administrators currently are hyper-focused on athletes' health and safety regarding COVID-19, but there's a long-term risk to pushing back competition. A full spring 2021 season combined with a full fall 2021 season means players could log 24 regular-season games in 10 months or so. Add in postseason play, and the number of games for top teams approaches 30. Even if both seasons were shortened, players would have less time to rest and recharge, or rehabilitate from injuries.

"These kids would be beat to hell," Narduzzi said. "I don't think you can do it. These kids need a break. Think about the players' bodies."

Given all of the above, a spring season is viewed as a last resort, but the alternative could be even more disruptive.

"If we don't have college football, almost every athletic department is going to be bankrupt," a Power 5 coach said. "We support every other sport other than maybe men's basketball, so I would think every AD and every commissioner would do anything they can to have the season. For one year, if it's a nontraditional season, who cares?"

(05-01-2020 05:34 PM)doss2 Wrote:  I think it is funny listening to people talking about China when most have not been there. And yes I have because we built a factory there. When my CEO boss said you will need to spend a week there (30 miles outside Shanghai) every quarter I decide it was time to retire. Staying in a 5 star hotel and could not drink the water. The water ways made our Mill Creek seem pristine. The wet markets were repulsive. The Chinese drug stores were hideous.