(04-20-2020 07:45 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:43 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  [
We all agree vaccination is important. Just 12 months from development, testing, and approval. We certainly can't wait that long.

Oh we absolutely agree on that as well. We have to get the cases per day declining. We have to be careful in how we open and still minimize large gatherings / close contact. We really need contact tracing and expansive/ quick testing. But we can't just stay home forever and we won't. How we manage it is going to affect whether there is a second wave and how bad that second wave will be.

We were good until you brought up contact tracing. You really want to give up your personal privacy?

(04-20-2020 07:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Only get one shot to roll thing back to normal. They throw a switch and this thing blows up 3 weeks later there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube.

(04-20-2020 09:44 AM)ucbandguy Wrote:  I am going to get colse to a rant here. I apologize in advance. It has become a bit personal for me now.

An acquaintance of mine died the other day from the Covid-19 virus. He was 50, nonsmoker, in good health otherwise. A good amateur musician, I played in the community band with him. He was not a "close" friend, but he was a really good guy.

His employer would not let him work from home, so after he used up the last of his vacation days, he drove up to Columbus to work. That was where he caught it. He suffered in the hospital for about 10 days, ending up on a ventilator. In his final hours, the doctors told his family that his lungs were totally wrecked.

My point is, it is not "just" old or sick people dying. (Yes, they die in much greater percentages.) The more we break isolation, the more "healthy" people will die.

I would love to see the country open back up. I would really like to go to some football games this fall. But we can't just pretend this pandemic isn't happening. Thankfully, most of you seem to recognize this.

I apologize again for my little rant, but it is personal now.

(04-20-2020 09:44 AM)ucbandguy Wrote:  I am going to get colse to a rant here. I apologize in advance. It has become a bit personal for me now.

An acquaintance of mine died the other day from the Covid-19 virus. He was 50, nonsmoker, in good health otherwise. A good amateur musician, I played in the community band with him. He was not a "close" friend, but he was a really good guy.

His employer would not let him work from home, so after he used up the last of his vacation days, he drove up to Columbus to work. That was where he caught it. He suffered in the hospital for about 10 days, ending up on a ventilator. In his final hours, the doctors told his family that his lungs were totally wrecked.

My point is, it is not "just" old or sick people dying. (Yes, they die in much greater percentages.) The more we break isolation, the more "healthy" people will die.

I would love to see the country open back up. I would really like to go to some football games this fall. But we can't just pretend this pandemic isn't happening. Thankfully, most of you seem to recognize this.

I apologize again for my little rant, but it is personal now.

(04-20-2020 07:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:43 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  [
We all agree vaccination is important. Just 12 months from development, testing, and approval. We certainly can't wait that long.

Oh we absolutely agree on that as well. We have to get the cases per day declining. We have to be careful in how we open and still minimize large gatherings / close contact. We really need contact tracing and expansive/ quick testing. But we can't just stay home forever and we won't. How we manage it is going to affect whether there is a second wave and how bad that second wave will be.

Only get one shot to roll thing back to normal. They throw a switch and this thing blows up 3 weeks later there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube.

On the bright side, there is a part of me that is enjoining the quieter pace of the world right now. Granted, I live in a fairly rural area during the off season but I sat outside yesterday for an hour in the sunshine and didn’t hear a single man made sound except my own breathing and the sound of me popping open an IPA. No cars in the distance. No planes over head. No boats on the lake. None of the background drone we don’t even consciously hear most of the time because it’s always there.

(04-19-2020 10:50 AM)namrag Wrote:  Latest numbers from the CDC as of Thursday was that in the United States there have been a total of three deaths in the 0-14 years age group, and 13 deaths in the 15-24 years age group. (And there was no detailing if those 16 had existing risk factors)

Those numbers suggest that Americans 24 years old and younger have an amazingly low risk of death from COVID-19.

The 25-35 age range had slightly higher raw numbers, but statistically similar.

The numbers of deaths increase starting in the 44 years old and up age ranges.

For some reason there has been very little reporting of risk stratification based on age, existing risk factors, and other demographics.

It is perfectly reasonable and scientific to begin stratifying risks, and relaxing restrictions based upon one’s calculated risk based upon your known risk factors.

There is no guarantee that a vaccine is coming in the next 12 months, 18 months, if ever. So waiting for a vaccine CANNOT be the only strategy in play.

(04-20-2020 12:52 PM)natibeast21 Wrote:  I posted this months back in the political forums, but I‘ve had the opinion that the amounts of the deaths directly related to the economic impact will far out way the total deaths from the virus since mid March. I don’t feel like finding links and posting all the studies again for why I have this opinion, but it will be well over 500k and probably less than 2 million if unemployment stays at these levels or gets worse through the end of the year.

While I think America handled this situation great since January. I think most of the country should have been put back to work starting today (Aside from the obvious NYC situations). The hold off seems to be mostly political and companies worried about lawsuits. The MSM is trash and does nothing but exaggerate and make people fight. The WHO has been a complete joke and the initial recommendations by the CDC and US Surgeon General were complete garbage. It really makes me question what my local doctor actually knows. I do have great respect for scientist and especially surgeons. I don’t understand how anyone in the professional world could go from a prediction of 2.2 million to 35-60k in less than a few weeks when that’s their job and all they spent time one. I haven’t looked at the model and I’m sure it didn’t take into account actions being taken as those would be hard to quantify, but regardless that is an absolute joke.

They need to be working on a way to figure out how to handle the high risk group (age and underlying health factors). They keep talking we really won’t get back to normal until we have a vaccination (6-18 month prediction and who knows on that prediction. Could be 2 months or could be never for all I know). The flu vaccine (flu shot) doesn’t even work that effectively and this virus seems to mutate like Influenza a la 17. This doesn’t seem to be a smallpox, polio, etc. situation where we will have a forever vaccine and basically eradicate the disease/virus.

While there are many who don’t take personal responsibility, they are harming the entire lives of people with common sense. It’s not like I ever went and visited my grandparents when I was young and sick. Now that my parents are in the high risk group I have been extremely careful and so have they when around each other. All viruses show symptoms for some and others don’t even know they had anything. Not like this is anything new. All dependent on each persons own immune system.

F**K the Chinese Regime. My rants over.

(04-20-2020 06:52 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 09:56 PM)Yawny Wrote:  I guess all East Asian countries are just those other people who can't be trusted to you eh?

When your argument fails I see you play the "implied racist" card.

160 from your last article or 51 now who may be infected against a population of 51 Million is statistically not significant. That's what I posted.

Its a math issue not a race issue. Eh?

(04-20-2020 08:19 AM)doss2 Wrote:  A lot of people like to imply racism.

Why cannot it be called China of Wuhan Flu? It's racist!

But German Measles, Ebola, MERS, Spanish Flu are OK?

When all else fails play the card!

Quote:“In recent years, several new human infectious diseases have emerged. The use of names such as ‘swine flu’ and ‘Middle East Respiratory Syndrome’ has had unintended negative impacts by stigmatizing certain communities or economic sectors,” says Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security, WHO. “This may seem like a trivial issue to some, but disease names really do matter to the people who are directly affected. We’ve seen certain disease names provoke a backlash against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have serious consequences for peoples’ lives and livelihoods.”

(04-20-2020 12:52 PM)natibeast21 Wrote:  I posted this months back in the political forums, but I‘ve had the opinion that the amounts of the deaths directly related to the economic impact will far out way the total deaths from the virus since mid March. I don’t feel like finding links and posting all the studies again for why I have this opinion, but it will be well over 500k and probably less than 2 million if unemployment stays at these levels or gets worse through the end of the year.

(04-20-2020 02:10 PM)SeniorBearcat Wrote:  

Per Johns Hopkins data a few minutes ago, 3,893,815 COVID-19 tests have been administered to people with symptoms and /or have been in contact with someone with COVID-19. 761,991 in the United States have tested positive...20% of the people being tested in the USA have COVID-19.

Say the numbers only represent 10% of the actual number of cases and there are 7.6M people in the USA that have / had COVID-19, then the rate of death would be 40,724 deaths / 7.6M with the virus = 0.53% rate of death. Keeping the rate of death under 1% and the USA will have done an excellent job! Based on the current data (we know actual cases is under reported due to limited testing) 40,724 deaths / 761,991 confirmed cases = 5.34% rate of death

Back to the topic at hand, 50/50 on if college football is played in the fall...non-conference games are already less than 50/50...one of the 3 schools I follow (not Cincinnati) may be using it's practice facility for COVID-19 cases...if that happens, students will not be back on the campus in the fall per the athletic department...no students, no games.

(04-20-2020 03:42 PM)OKIcat Wrote:  One study of course. But if corroborated, it could signal a move out of our bunkers for more than 95% of the public before college football begins.

(04-20-2020 10:53 AM)converrl Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:43 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  [
We all agree vaccination is important. Just 12 months from development, testing, and approval. We certainly can't wait that long.

Oh we absolutely agree on that as well. We have to get the cases per day declining. We have to be careful in how we open and still minimize large gatherings / close contact. We really need contact tracing and expansive/ quick testing. But we can't just stay home forever and we won't. How we manage it is going to affect whether there is a second wave and how bad that second wave will be.

Only get one shot to roll thing back to normal. They throw a switch and this thing blows up 3 weeks later there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube.

On the bright side, there is a part of me that is enjoining the quieter pace of the world right now. Granted, I live in a fairly rural area during the off season but I sat outside yesterday for an hour in the sunshine and didn’t hear a single man made sound except my own breathing and the sound of me popping open an IPA. No cars in the distance. No planes over head. No boats on the lake. None of the background drone we don’t even consciously hear most of the time because it’s always there.

And if we don't open back up, that will soon be followed by no food, no $$, no life.

(04-20-2020 02:03 PM)Yawny Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:52 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 09:56 PM)Yawny Wrote:  I guess all East Asian countries are just those other people who can't be trusted to you eh?

When your argument fails I see you play the "implied racist" card.

160 from your last article or 51 now who may be infected against a population of 51 Million is statistically not significant. That's what I posted.

Its a math issue not a race issue. Eh?

I'm just curious as to why you think South Korea's data is so untrustworthy?

(04-20-2020 08:19 AM)doss2 Wrote:  A lot of people like to imply racism.

Why cannot it be called China of Wuhan Flu? It's racist!

But German Measles, Ebola, MERS, Spanish Flu are OK?

When all else fails play the card!

Sigh.

- It's called Rubella, not German Measles, hence the MMR vaccine (Measles, Mumps, Rubella).

- Ebola was named after a river, specifically not after the town it was found in to avoid stigmatizing the town.

- MERS had to be renamed because it was being called freaking Camel Flu. (See later for more on this)

- Spanish Flu famously did not originate in Spain. Other countries, such as the US and France, just suppressed news of cases by invoking wartime censorship laws to keep morale up. Spain wasn't involved in WW1 and therefore didn't have active wartime censorship laws, so the first stories of its existence came from there. Modern literature has tried to re-term it the 1918 Flu Pandemic in light of this, and the and the WHO condemns the use of naming diseases in ways that stigmatize places or people. (this includes MERS, among other diseases).

Quote:“In recent years, several new human infectious diseases have emerged. The use of names such as ‘swine flu’ and ‘Middle East Respiratory Syndrome’ has had unintended negative impacts by stigmatizing certain communities or economic sectors,” says Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security, WHO. “This may seem like a trivial issue to some, but disease names really do matter to the people who are directly affected. We’ve seen certain disease names provoke a backlash against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have serious consequences for peoples’ lives and livelihoods.”

(04-20-2020 04:50 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 10:53 AM)converrl Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:54 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 06:43 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  [
We all agree vaccination is important. Just 12 months from development, testing, and approval. We certainly can't wait that long.

Oh we absolutely agree on that as well. We have to get the cases per day declining. We have to be careful in how we open and still minimize large gatherings / close contact. We really need contact tracing and expansive/ quick testing. But we can't just stay home forever and we won't. How we manage it is going to affect whether there is a second wave and how bad that second wave will be.

Only get one shot to roll thing back to normal. They throw a switch and this thing blows up 3 weeks later there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube.

On the bright side, there is a part of me that is enjoining the quieter pace of the world right now. Granted, I live in a fairly rural area during the off season but I sat outside yesterday for an hour in the sunshine and didn’t hear a single man made sound except my own breathing and the sound of me popping open an IPA. No cars in the distance. No planes over head. No boats on the lake. None of the background drone we don’t even consciously hear most of the time because it’s always there.

And if we don't open back up, that will soon be followed by no food, no $$, no life.

Drama much?

World won’t end. Not this time at least.