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Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Printable Version

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RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - skylinecat - 08-26-2020 02:26 PM

(08-26-2020 02:25 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 02:09 PM)converrl Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 12:48 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 12:45 PM)converrl Wrote:  If you want to take precautions, take them...that's on you. But if there are people who perceive and act differently than you, that is their prerogative, they are assuming the risk.

The problem is their assumption of the risk isn't just a personal risk. It creates an exponentially more risky situation for others, including the vulnerable populations.

Thus the vulnerable should take more precautions with that knowledge. Personal responsibility.

You want to start even more riots? Start throwing people into jail for not wearing masks en masse. You think Portland and Minneapolis are disasters? Just try those type of strong-arm tactics when the bulk of the population isn't on board.

Who said anything about throwing people in jail?

Fox News / OAN


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-26-2020 02:59 PM

(08-26-2020 11:21 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 09:41 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:22 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:12 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  Simple question from me...should we wear masks and social distance as a society every flu season? If your answer to that question is no but you believe we should social distance and wear masks now during covid then I genuinely want to understand your thought process.

I've had many coffee appointments and outdoor drinks with friends and business contacts. Had lunch out with the family on Sunday. Attended an outdoor wedding earlier this month. In all of those instances I wore a mask when appropriate and did my best to space out as best I can. Is this really that hard? I'm not so brittle that wearing a mask and taking reasonable precautions crumbles my existence. Hope it gets better for you.

You didn't answer my question. I'm trying to determine why we don't bother social distancing and wearing masks during flu season while tens of thousands of Americans die but we do for COVID. Apparently 30k - 80k annual deaths is no biggie.

If a business or place I'm going to requests that I wear a mask I will put one on, I'm not one of those guys that storms in without one to try and prove a point, I will wear one.

The point I'm making is the media and liberal politicians are blowing it up to be more dangerous than it is for political gain, and the statistics are simply not backing up the hype. If you don't believe this is happening then you need to get your head out of the sand. There's a huge double standard since we know the flu is deadly, in fact it's more deadly for children than COVID, yet we never legislate social distancing and wearing masks during flu season. Just trying to understand if it becomes an issue once you cross over a certain number of deaths, and if so how many have to die before we change our behavior.

It's definitely not crumbling my existence, quite the opposite. Back in May when we started seeing real data and learning that the 3-6% mortality rate that the media pumped looked more like 0.2 - 0.6% I went back to life as normal.

I'd love to see your sources for those numbers on both average flu deaths and covid mortality rate.

I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - CoachFickFan - 08-26-2020 03:03 PM

(08-16-2020 10:28 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  Still doesn’t help you when half the team tests positive and you have to cancel 2 games.

Or if you get a false positive test like the govnuh and have to sit out for no reason.

The NBA has been the only ones to get it right so far, and I don’t see those measures being taken in college athletics.

The coronavirus is not the problem. Our response to the coronavirus is the problem.

Last week NFL players, coaches, and staff just got 77 false negatives
from contamination at one lab.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/24/lab-says-contamination-caused-false-positives/

I call it "sitting out for no reason."


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-26-2020 03:15 PM

(08-26-2020 11:32 AM)levydl Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 09:41 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  The point I'm making is the media and liberal politicians are blowing it up to be more dangerous than it is for political gain, and the statistics are simply not backing up the hype. If you don't believe this is happening then you need to get your head out of the sand.

The governors of Mississippi and Alabama instituted masks-in-public rules. Are they liberals trying to take down Trump? Or perhaps they've just been fooled by the media?

Still comparing COVID to the flu in August and you think others have their heads in the sand?

You're totally missing my point.

I'm not really anti-mask, I wear my mask when the establishment requests it without argument. I'm also not comparing COVID to the flu, I'm comparing our media and societies response to these two viruses.

My point is that tens of thousands of people die annually from the flu and society doesn't bat an eye. So there must be a magical number of deaths before we start changing our actions and give a damn.

I'm trying to get the liberals to acknowledge that our media response and a lot of our politicians response is politically driven because of the election. I'm saying that if you can read NBC's and CNN's headlines every day yet you can't subjectively sit back and acknowledge that they are making this sound worse than it is then I believe you have your head in the sand.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Bear Catlett - 08-26-2020 03:41 PM

(08-26-2020 12:30 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Bear Catlett, do you really believe that asymptomatic transmission is not a thing?

Asymptomatic for how long? An hour? A day? A week? Forever?

You see, this is one of the many things we can't get a straight answer on.

These people that test positive that never felt a thing? No, I don't believe they're passing anything to others. If that were the case, we'd all freakin' have it by now.

I'll save you all the trouble...

SCIENCE DENIER !!!!


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-26-2020 03:49 PM

(08-26-2020 12:30 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Bear Catlett, do you really believe that asymptomatic transmission is not a thing?

It's pretty widely accepted that asymptomatic transmission is far less contagious than those with symptoms. Plenty of sources for those that want links...use google.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - SeniorBearcat - 08-26-2020 04:53 PM

NBA players boycotting playoff games...do you think this will happen in football as well? College, NFL, etc?


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Bearcatbdub - 08-26-2020 06:21 PM

(08-26-2020 03:49 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 12:30 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Bear Catlett, do you really believe that asymptomatic transmission is not a thing?

It's pretty widely accepted that asymptomatic transmission is far less contagious than those with symptoms. Plenty of sources for those that want links...use google.

Ditto. If you are asymptomatic you are not coughing and sneezing to facilitate the spread. Sure you can spread it if you are a close talker or breathing on someone in an enclosed area. But logically you would be less likely to spread if you were asymptomatic.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - converrl - 08-27-2020 12:24 AM

(08-26-2020 03:03 PM)CoachFickFan Wrote:  
(08-16-2020 10:28 AM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  Still doesn’t help you when half the team tests positive and you have to cancel 2 games.

Or if you get a false positive test like the govnuh and have to sit out for no reason.

The NBA has been the only ones to get it right so far, and I don’t see those measures being taken in college athletics.

The coronavirus is not the problem. Our response to the coronavirus is the problem.

Last week NFL players, coaches, and staff just got 77 false negatives
from contamination at one lab.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/24/lab-says-contamination-caused-false-positives/

I call it "sitting out for no reason."

Do you mean false positives?


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 08-27-2020 10:09 AM

(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 11:21 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 09:41 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:22 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:12 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  Simple question from me...should we wear masks and social distance as a society every flu season? If your answer to that question is no but you believe we should social distance and wear masks now during covid then I genuinely want to understand your thought process.

I've had many coffee appointments and outdoor drinks with friends and business contacts. Had lunch out with the family on Sunday. Attended an outdoor wedding earlier this month. In all of those instances I wore a mask when appropriate and did my best to space out as best I can. Is this really that hard? I'm not so brittle that wearing a mask and taking reasonable precautions crumbles my existence. Hope it gets better for you.

You didn't answer my question. I'm trying to determine why we don't bother social distancing and wearing masks during flu season while tens of thousands of Americans die but we do for COVID. Apparently 30k - 80k annual deaths is no biggie.

If a business or place I'm going to requests that I wear a mask I will put one on, I'm not one of those guys that storms in without one to try and prove a point, I will wear one.

The point I'm making is the media and liberal politicians are blowing it up to be more dangerous than it is for political gain, and the statistics are simply not backing up the hype. If you don't believe this is happening then you need to get your head out of the sand. There's a huge double standard since we know the flu is deadly, in fact it's more deadly for children than COVID, yet we never legislate social distancing and wearing masks during flu season. Just trying to understand if it becomes an issue once you cross over a certain number of deaths, and if so how many have to die before we change our behavior.

It's definitely not crumbling my existence, quite the opposite. Back in May when we started seeing real data and learning that the 3-6% mortality rate that the media pumped looked more like 0.2 - 0.6% I went back to life as normal.

I'd love to see your sources for those numbers on both average flu deaths and covid mortality rate.

I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-27-2020 10:52 AM

(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 11:21 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 09:41 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:22 PM)MickMack Wrote:  I've had many coffee appointments and outdoor drinks with friends and business contacts. Had lunch out with the family on Sunday. Attended an outdoor wedding earlier this month. In all of those instances I wore a mask when appropriate and did my best to space out as best I can. Is this really that hard? I'm not so brittle that wearing a mask and taking reasonable precautions crumbles my existence. Hope it gets better for you.

You didn't answer my question. I'm trying to determine why we don't bother social distancing and wearing masks during flu season while tens of thousands of Americans die but we do for COVID. Apparently 30k - 80k annual deaths is no biggie.

If a business or place I'm going to requests that I wear a mask I will put one on, I'm not one of those guys that storms in without one to try and prove a point, I will wear one.

The point I'm making is the media and liberal politicians are blowing it up to be more dangerous than it is for political gain, and the statistics are simply not backing up the hype. If you don't believe this is happening then you need to get your head out of the sand. There's a huge double standard since we know the flu is deadly, in fact it's more deadly for children than COVID, yet we never legislate social distancing and wearing masks during flu season. Just trying to understand if it becomes an issue once you cross over a certain number of deaths, and if so how many have to die before we change our behavior.

It's definitely not crumbling my existence, quite the opposite. Back in May when we started seeing real data and learning that the 3-6% mortality rate that the media pumped looked more like 0.2 - 0.6% I went back to life as normal.

I'd love to see your sources for those numbers on both average flu deaths and covid mortality rate.

I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 08-27-2020 10:58 AM

(08-27-2020 10:52 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 11:21 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 09:41 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  You didn't answer my question. I'm trying to determine why we don't bother social distancing and wearing masks during flu season while tens of thousands of Americans die but we do for COVID. Apparently 30k - 80k annual deaths is no biggie.

If a business or place I'm going to requests that I wear a mask I will put one on, I'm not one of those guys that storms in without one to try and prove a point, I will wear one.

The point I'm making is the media and liberal politicians are blowing it up to be more dangerous than it is for political gain, and the statistics are simply not backing up the hype. If you don't believe this is happening then you need to get your head out of the sand. There's a huge double standard since we know the flu is deadly, in fact it's more deadly for children than COVID, yet we never legislate social distancing and wearing masks during flu season. Just trying to understand if it becomes an issue once you cross over a certain number of deaths, and if so how many have to die before we change our behavior.

It's definitely not crumbling my existence, quite the opposite. Back in May when we started seeing real data and learning that the 3-6% mortality rate that the media pumped looked more like 0.2 - 0.6% I went back to life as normal.

I'd love to see your sources for those numbers on both average flu deaths and covid mortality rate.

I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.

So instead of saying that the CDC's mortality rate is .2% - .6% (because that wouldn't be a true statement), perhaps you should say "the number I made up based on factors I believe to be true is .2% - .6%." Wouldn't you agree that's a more accurate statement?


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-27-2020 11:05 AM

Latest CNN headline..."Trump and Melania mingle without Masks". OMGGGG the horror!!!!! Those murderers!!!!!!!

Camera pans to Trump and Melania standing behind a table talking to people standing behind a fence with at least 6 feet in between them.

If the people they're mingling with are concerned about it then perhaps they shouldn't be mingling with unmasked individuals. Based on the video it didn't look like Trump was pinning them to the ground and coughing in their face. They could just choose to not mingle perhaps?

Instead CNN just goes for the shock and awe that someone would dare "mingle" without a mask on, despite the fact that there was 6 feet between them. Shame Shame!!!! Joe would never act so irresponsible.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 08-27-2020 11:33 AM

(08-27-2020 11:05 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  Latest CNN headline..."Trump and Melania mingle without Masks". OMGGGG the horror!!!!! Those murderers!!!!!!!

Camera pans to Trump and Melania standing behind a table talking to people standing behind a fence with at least 6 feet in between them.

If the people they're mingling with are concerned about it then perhaps they shouldn't be mingling with unmasked individuals. Based on the video it didn't look like Trump was pinning them to the ground and coughing in their face. They could just choose to not mingle perhaps?

Instead CNN just goes for the shock and awe that someone would dare "mingle" without a mask on, despite the fact that there was 6 feet between them. Shame Shame!!!! Joe would never act so irresponsible.

Why do you even go there? They sell a product. So does Fox, MSNBC and the rest of the clown networks.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Bearcatbdub - 08-27-2020 12:06 PM

(08-27-2020 10:58 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:52 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 11:21 AM)MickMack Wrote:  I'd love to see your sources for those numbers on both average flu deaths and covid mortality rate.

I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.

So instead of saying that the CDC's mortality rate is .2% - .6% (because that wouldn't be a true statement), perhaps you should say "the number I made up based on factors I believe to be true is .2% - .6%." Wouldn't you agree that's a more accurate statement?

You may disagree with what he is saying but I don’t think it’s fair to frame his position like that. Here is a another article that shows the estimate- albeit it’s a bit of a spin piece too, and from June. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5269331002

CDC estimated a deathrate of 0.2-0.6 with a guestimate of 0.4.

Nobody can prove the amount of asymptomatic undiagnosed cases because we frankly just don’t know. But we can draw conclusions based on anectdotal data just like every other study is doing these days. If you are going to argue for asymptomatic spreaders you have to acknowledge there are more cases than we know.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - MickMack - 08-27-2020 12:25 PM

(08-27-2020 12:06 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:58 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:52 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-26-2020 02:59 PM)bearcats23 Wrote:  I mentioned that back in May we started seeing more data that showed a mortality rate closer to 0.2% - 0.6% compared to the 3-6% BS that the media was pumping at the time. This correlates to when the CDC revised their estimated mortality rate to be 0.26%, as referenced in the link below dated May 27th.

http://www.fccoop.org/?p=10552

The CDC has revised their numbers to the 0.26% no longer shows up on their website, looks like their latest estimate is closer to the 0.5% or 0.6% as referenced on their website now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

I've read articles that other studies are saying their best estimate at this point is 0.4%. Either way, we had fear mongering numbers of 3% - 6% pumped down our throats for 3 months and the media has been pretty quiet in publishing the real numbers now that we know it's a fraction of their original projection.

With regards to the flu it looks like the official CDC numbers say 12,000 - 61,000 die annually. I know I read that the 2018 season had a projected 80,000 deaths, which is why I had that number in my head. The first link is the CDC official estimates, and the second is a 2018 article which references the CDC's estimate of 80,000 deaths at that time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

The bottom line is that we ignore the tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but we are self destructing over COVID. I assume there's only two explanations, one is that the lives of the tens of thousands of flu cases don't matter, or two is that the media and liberals are pumping this thing to cause maximum disruption heading into November.

Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.

So instead of saying that the CDC's mortality rate is .2% - .6% (because that wouldn't be a true statement), perhaps you should say "the number I made up based on factors I believe to be true is .2% - .6%." Wouldn't you agree that's a more accurate statement?

You may disagree with what he is saying but I don’t think it’s fair to frame his position like that. Here is a another article that shows the estimate- albeit it’s a bit of a spin piece too, and from June. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5269331002

CDC estimated a deathrate of 0.2-0.6 with a guestimate of 0.4.

Nobody can prove the amount of asymptomatic undiagnosed cases because we frankly just don’t know. But we can draw conclusions based on anectdotal data just like every other study is doing these days. If you are going to argue for asymptomatic spreaders you have to acknowledge there are more cases than we know.

You're mixing up two issues here. Issue 1: he literally said the CDC was reporting .2-.6 mortality rate. I simply linked to the numbers and pointed out that the CDC is not, in fact, reporting that mortality rate. That's fact checking.

Issue 2: he believes, based on a number of factors, that the actual mortality rate is between .2 - .6%. I have absolutely no qualms with him making that argument.

But (back to Issue 1) facts matter. And the indisputable fact is that the CDC's website reflects a 3% mortality rate.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 08-27-2020 12:36 PM

An interesting subset of largely senior citizens to look at.

Of the 538 members of Congress (which by the way has one of the oldest average ages of any Congress we’ve had) how many of the DC critters who log a bunch of travel time have been hospitalized and how many have died from this? Asking for a friend.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - Bear Catlett - 08-27-2020 01:37 PM

(08-27-2020 12:36 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  An interesting subset of largely senior citizens to look at.

Of the 538 members of Congress (which by the way has one of the oldest average ages of any Congress we’ve had) how many of the DC critters who log a bunch of travel time have been hospitalized and how many have died from this? Asking for a friend.

Covid death is only for the little people.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - bearcats23 - 08-27-2020 02:33 PM

(08-27-2020 12:25 PM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 12:06 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:58 AM)MickMack Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:52 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  
(08-27-2020 10:09 AM)MickMack Wrote:  Here are the actual CDC numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Divide deaths (177,759) by cases (5,752,653). Please check my math but I get 3%.

That's very flawed. It's well known that the actual number infected is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, which obviously would put the mortality rate significantly lower than 3%. Widespread antibody testing of certain groups has told us that much.Your math is looking just at confirmed cases. If we did our calculation that way for influenza the fatality rate would be wayyyy higher than 0.1%.

The infection fatality rate for COVID is projected to be between 0.2% - 0.6%. In other words, if you get infected, there's a 0.2% - 0.6% chance that you die. If you're under the age of 65 that goes down exponentially.

Bottom line is this virus kills nowhere near 3% of the people that get infected with it. It's difficult to pinpoint accurately at this point but there's been multiple studies already that are projecting the IFR to be <1%, and it seems the most common consensus is that it's around 0.4%-0.5%.

So instead of saying that the CDC's mortality rate is .2% - .6% (because that wouldn't be a true statement), perhaps you should say "the number I made up based on factors I believe to be true is .2% - .6%." Wouldn't you agree that's a more accurate statement?

You may disagree with what he is saying but I don’t think it’s fair to frame his position like that. Here is a another article that shows the estimate- albeit it’s a bit of a spin piece too, and from June. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5269331002

CDC estimated a deathrate of 0.2-0.6 with a guestimate of 0.4.

Nobody can prove the amount of asymptomatic undiagnosed cases because we frankly just don’t know. But we can draw conclusions based on anectdotal data just like every other study is doing these days. If you are going to argue for asymptomatic spreaders you have to acknowledge there are more cases than we know.

You're mixing up two issues here. Issue 1: he literally said the CDC was reporting .2-.6 mortality rate. I simply linked to the numbers and pointed out that the CDC is not, in fact, reporting that mortality rate. That's fact checking.

Issue 2: he believes, based on a number of factors, that the actual mortality rate is between .2 - .6%. I have absolutely no qualms with him making that argument.

But (back to Issue 1) facts matter. And the indisputable fact is that the CDC's website reflects a 3% mortality rate.

Ok, mortality rate is apparently the wrong terminology. It should've been infection fatality rate. You win on the technicality. COVID kills 0.2 - 0.6% of people that get infected with it, bottom line. In April we were told it kills 3%+.


RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season? - rath v2.0 - 08-27-2020 02:38 PM

FWIW the death rate for seasonal influenza is about .1%

So I guess we should expect to see at least 1/2 of the shutdowns and silly executive orders every flu season going forward.