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+------ Thread: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? (/thread-896143.html)
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RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 09:05 AM
(05-29-2020 08:49 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 04:26 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Where's the outrage in those years where we lose 60k -70k to the flu? Do we only get really passionate about the death toll from viruses when they reach the magic 100k?
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Having 100k deaths with extreme social distancing measures in place proves that something needs/needed to be done about this virus. It is extremely more dangerous than the flu.
And Doctors have been saying how important flu shots are but people still dont take the flu serious.
It is about 1.5 times more deadly than the flu according to the updated CDC mortality rate. In people 40 and under it is about the same mortality rate as the flu, but becomes less deadly than the flu once you get to the 24 and under demo. For folks from 40-50 it is slightly more deadly than the flu. Interpret that as you will. You have an opinion on the benefits of "extreme social distancing". That opinion is not universal. Even Scott Gottlieb, who is about as mainstream is they get, said that social distancing did not appear to be as effective as it was expected it to be.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 09:10 AM
(05-29-2020 09:00 AM)smudge12 Wrote:(05-29-2020 08:26 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Just wondering. When you talk about how bad our response is, why do you never point out the disaster in LTC facilities, considering that is 40%+ of the deaths? To me that is the most glaring, and easily fixable problem on the table, and some states (Michigan) still don't even have the data to tell us how many people have died in LTCs. That is right, the state with the most egregious lockdown response, has given so little attention to LTCs that they are unable to even tell us how many people have died in them. Further we have multiple states that were forcing LTCs to take COVID positive patients. It seems to me that if we are going to talk about mistakes, that is the most horrific of all the mistakes we have seen.
It's a mistake for sure, but it's not the most egregious mistake. How we respond outside of LTC facilities has the most effect on LTC facilities. Contain and trace the virus, and you reduce it everywhere else.
How we've responded also has long-term social and economic effects. This isn't only about deaths; people are going deep into debt and bankruptcy simply getting hospitalized for the disease. Even if you survive, it could set your life back years. The long-term effects are not are not reflected in the death toll but are fairly severe themselves. And then we have staggering unemployment and businesses permanently closing because of the botched response, and an economy that's probably scarred for a while.
From health care to welfare to economic and social issues, this pandemic is really magnifying years of failed domestic policies.
I am sorry, but I have a really hard time with this one. When simple measures could have saved nearly half of the people that died, but rather than employing those measures, governors not only ignored them, but exacerbated the issue by seeding LTCs with people who would ultimately spread the virus to a whole bunch of the most vulnerable people in the population, how is that not the most egregious error that has been made. Certainly locking 24 year olds who are more likely to die from the flu than COVID in their houses was not the most effective approach. On the economic side, we could have mitigated a ton of the issues, if the focus had not been locking down people who were in no danger, but rather on protecting the vulnerable the way that Florida did.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - 84Monarch - 05-29-2020 09:19 AM
(05-29-2020 08:49 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:Giles, you are a stats guy, so if you look at the numbers there is enough evidence to show that the 100,000 number has some reporting irregularities in it. I am not minimizing the loss of life, but there are serious questions as to how every state is recording a Covid death and what qualifies as a Covid death.(05-29-2020 04:26 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Where's the outrage in those years where we lose 60k -70k to the flu? Do we only get really passionate about the death toll from viruses when they reach the magic 100k?
Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
Having 100k deaths with extreme social distancing measures in place proves that something needs/needed to be done about this virus. It is extremely more dangerous than the flu.
And Doctors have been saying how important flu shots are but people still don't take the flu serious.
I don't think anyone on here is minimizing that. The problem is that officials keep changing their stories and healthy people's responsibilities. They never explain the science data they are using for the decisions made. Our governor uses this nebulous term in every press conference without truly explaining the methodology or the studies used.
The frustration is the lack of transparency and the changing scientific opinions. Should we all wear masks? The WHO says no (not sure if Pete Townsend was consulted or not). So who is correct? The simple fact is that the experts don't know. In no medicine should the treatment or cure be worse than the condition, but that is where we find ourselves.
As for the flu, each year scientists are projecting which strain of the flu they are innoculating us from. There is not one master flu vaccine. Some years they get it right, some not.
This is a situation that sucks, but it cannot ruin the population when the numbers impacting younger and healthy individuals do not warrant it.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - ODUCoach - 05-29-2020 09:38 AM
(05-29-2020 09:26 AM)smudge12 Wrote: We didn't need to reinvent the wheel; other nations gave us a blue print to stop the spread of Covid-19. Now those nations are opening for business and getting their economies/societies back on track, while the world seriously considers walling itself off from us.
It would've sucked to temporarily shutter, but there's a TON we could've done to mitigate the temporary pain. That's where a strong national response comes in. Less people would be dead, and we'd be on track to a semblance of normalcy.
Instead, using freedom or capitalism as an excuse, we decided to go the opposite way. We implemented lock downs that weren't actual lock downs, and created long-term damage to both our freedoms and capitalism...while still not containing the virus.
The lack of long-term vision has always been an issue with the America I've grown up in, so I'm not sure why I should've expected anything different. The deep and ever-widening political divides only magnify it, but the virus couldn't care less.
If we wanted to contain the virus, we wouldn't have had leaders sending COVID infected patients back into LTC facilities.
And damn right, I'm not subjecting myself to a house arrest. I'd rather get COVID than let the government have that power over me. I will never apologize for that.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - AdoptedMonarch - 05-29-2020 10:13 AM
(05-29-2020 09:26 AM)smudge12 Wrote: The lack of long-term vision has always been an issue with the America I've grown up in, so I'm not sure why I should've expected anything different. The deep and ever-widening political divides only magnify it, but the virus couldn't care less.
Progressives, who by definition always know what is best for the rest of us, should by now know better than to act surprised when the population refuses to be treated like ants marching lockstep on orders from the queen. Americans have always had that annoying trait of insisting on thinking and acting for themselves.
To the extent "long-term vision" is euphemism for central planning, then you are correct that you should not have expected anything different.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - AdoptedMonarch - 05-29-2020 10:34 AM
(05-29-2020 10:24 AM)smudge12 Wrote: We're all neighbors in a country we share.
When a neighbor does something which puts the general safety and welfare of others in danger, the best solution is for everyone to come to an agreement which balances the safety and freedoms of all involved. When one party flat out refuses to compromise because they consider the individual sacrosanct to the point of endangering everyone else, it's in a society's best interest to take collective action and protect itself.
That collective action is government.
I don't think some understand that disregarding your neighbors' concerns is the abstract reason we cede our individual rights.
In the end, society always finds a way to protect itself. Often through the ballot box, but sometimes through shaming or (God-forbid) violence.
This is correct. It is why we are supposed to have laws that are duly enacted by our legislators and signed into effect by our executives. It is not, however, an excuse to put society on lockdown for anything but the most urgent and most temporary circumstances. We have gone long past that point with this virus.
Scolding Americans for not acting like good, little schoolchildren is not going to change where we are right now. We need to open back up. Fully. Without any more fussy directives from power-drunk, media-obsessed officials who have no concept of the consequences of what they are ordering.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 10:45 AM
(05-29-2020 10:24 AM)smudge12 Wrote: We're all neighbors in a country we share.
When a neighbor does something which puts the general safety and welfare of others in danger, the best solution is for everyone to come to an agreement which balances the safety and freedoms of all involved. When one party flat out refuses to compromise because they consider the individual sacrosanct to the point of endangering everyone else, it's in a society's best interest to take collective action and protect itself.
That collective action is government.
I don't think some understand that disregarding your neighbors' concerns is the abstract reason we cede our individual rights.
In the end, society always finds a way to protect itself. Often through the ballot box, but sometimes through shaming or (God-forbid) violence.
I can't disagree with the bolded part, but we definitely skipped past all of that coming to an agreement on what is collectively best for the people, and governors just made mandates that did not attempt to elicit any debate or collective agreement. You can't just substitute "governor's mandate" for "government as a whole" and expect people to feel as if their voices were heard in the process.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Gilesfan - 05-29-2020 12:24 PM
(05-29-2020 09:19 AM)84Monarch Wrote:(05-29-2020 08:49 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:Giles, you are a stats guy, so if you look at the numbers there is enough evidence to show that the 100,000 number has some reporting irregularities in it. I am not minimizing the loss of life, but there are serious questions as to how every state is recording a Covid death and what qualifies as a Covid death.(05-29-2020 04:26 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: Where's the outrage in those years where we lose 60k -70k to the flu? Do we only get really passionate about the death toll from viruses when they reach the magic 100k?
Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
Having 100k deaths with extreme social distancing measures in place proves that something needs/needed to be done about this virus. It is extremely more dangerous than the flu.
And Doctors have been saying how important flu shots are but people still don't take the flu serious.
I don't think anyone on here is minimizing that. The problem is that officials keep changing their stories and healthy people's responsibilities. They never explain the science data they are using for the decisions made. Our governor uses this nebulous term in every press conference without truly explaining the methodology or the studies used.
The frustration is the lack of transparency and the changing scientific opinions. Should we all wear masks? The WHO says no (not sure if Pete Townsend was consulted or not). So who is correct? The simple fact is that the experts don't know. In no medicine should the treatment or cure be worse than the condition, but that is where we find ourselves.
As for the flu, each year scientists are projecting which strain of the flu they are innoculating us from. There is not one master flu vaccine. Some years they get it right, some not.
This is a situation that sucks, but it cannot ruin the population when the numbers impacting younger and healthy individuals do not warrant it.
I understand the 100k is probably not accurate. It is likely significantly higher when you trace excess deaths and/or deaths labeled as pneumonia. Its not a coincidence that we have so many more deaths than would be expected.
I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - ODUCoach - 05-29-2020 12:38 PM
(05-29-2020 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - VB Monarch - 05-29-2020 12:42 PM
Someone further up the food chain sat on this for a couple of months, then gave conflicting orders to the governors as to what the states duties were. This caused the Governors to have to rush into this, an essentially once in a life time situation. Even in a hurricane Governors have task forces and plenty of advance notice to cope. No state I'm aware of was prepared for anything like this. Had the public been told what to expect a few monhs before it hit, maybe people would have felt more like cooperating in a short term lock down than an indeterminate one.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 12:51 PM
Yup, and if we all had crystal balls we would all be rich.
Of course nobody was prepared for this thing that nobody alive has seen before. That doesn't shield the governors from criticism for being terrible leaders. In fact, they are even worse leader than I thought if they were sitting back waiting on someone to make the tough decisions for them. The data was available very early on, as the governor of FL has explained, to know that this was going to be especially vicious in LTCs. Most Govs just didn't do their homework, and followed what the blowhards on CNN were telling them they needed to do.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Gilesfan - 05-29-2020 02:02 PM
(05-29-2020 12:38 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Gilesfan - 05-29-2020 02:05 PM
(05-29-2020 12:51 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: Yup, and if we all had crystal balls we would all be rich.
Of course nobody was prepared for this thing that nobody alive has seen before. That doesn't shield the governors from criticism for being terrible leaders. In fact, they are even worse leader than I thought if they were sitting back waiting on someone to make the tough decisions for them. The data was available very early on, as the governor of FL has explained, to know that this was going to be especially vicious in LTCs. Most Govs just didn't do their homework, and followed what the blowhards on CNN were telling them they needed to do.
How long did we know this was coming? There were briefs for Trump starting in November or December, I believe.....maybe even sooner. There have been experts talking about the likelihood of a Coronavirus pandemic for decades. We saw what happened to other countries. We knew this was coming. But the administration waiting until they saw Italy get crushed before doing anything serious (besides a halfass China ban)
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - ODUCoach - 05-29-2020 02:07 PM
(05-29-2020 02:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:38 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
I don't blame the LTCs. I blame the governors who sent sick patients into them!
This virus sucks. It's very deadly for specific sets of the population. But, again, let's focus on those subsets of the population. Locking down college kids isn't the answer.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Gilesfan - 05-29-2020 02:32 PM
(05-29-2020 02:07 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:38 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
I don't blame the LTCs. I blame the governors who sent sick patients into them!
This virus sucks. It's very deadly for specific sets of the population. But, again, let's focus on those subsets of the population. Locking down college kids isn't the answer.
It is dangerious for a lot of people. How many college kids have diabetes or high blood pressure or Aids or ashtma? Im not claiming its dangerous for everyone (though it can kill anyone at anytime) but the numbers say the likelihood is lower for some people. Lets not act like 30 years olds haven't dropped dead from the virus with and without underlying medical issues.
We can slowly open up. We can be much more safer. But, minimizing the virus would be a big mistake.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 02:51 PM
(05-29-2020 02:32 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:07 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:38 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:24 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: I dont think social distancing worked as well as expected either. So far we’ve had roughly 30-40k more deaths than were expected. I think its because we waited to long to do social distancing and didnt regulate travel in from Europe soon enough.
I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
I don't blame the LTCs. I blame the governors who sent sick patients into them!
This virus sucks. It's very deadly for specific sets of the population. But, again, let's focus on those subsets of the population. Locking down college kids isn't the answer.
It is dangerious for a lot of people. How many college kids have diabetes or high blood pressure or Aids or ashtma? Im not claiming its dangerous for everyone (though it can kill anyone at anytime) but the numbers say the likelihood is lower for some people. Lets not act like 30 years olds haven't dropped dead from the virus with and without underlying medical issues.
We can slowly open up. We can be much more safer. But, minimizing the virus would be a big mistake.
Apparently not that many, since that age group is at least as likely to die from the flu as they are to die from COVID... per actual data from the CDC.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Big4Blue - 05-29-2020 03:42 PM
As usual, some assertions require more nuance. Yes, in some states LTC facilities were directed to accept Covid-19 patients. However, there were certain allowances made, and in a few cases LTC facilities did not access these allowances for reasons that might have included profit motive:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/nursing-homes-coronavirus.html
LTC patients do not constitute the majority of victims overall, BTW, though certain states such as Virginia have struggled... Not absolutely certain why...
As a nation we were slow to act on a threat that was known despite Chinese failings. The WHO is simply another convenient scapegoat.
Governors have generally done a good job with what they have, both R’s & D’s. We lack proper national leadership, and also suffer in situations like this from a culture that for some teaches resistance to any authority that doesn’t confirm our predispositions. We can learn from other countries that put in place stronger controls.
Science often changes as new facts arise. We rely less on ventilators after learning they aren’t a panacea. We have tried and mostly halted the use of certain drugs. We will hopefully find a vaccine. We know for a fact, and despite assertions to the contrary have heard explanations, that social distancing and masks both work. We have learned that C-19 affects people in different ways. We will learn more and change more.
Hopefully we can utilize some positive social science to reach consensus on reducing risk while getting back to work.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Gilesfan - 05-29-2020 03:50 PM
(05-29-2020 02:51 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:32 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:07 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 12:38 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: I could not disagree more with blaming social distancing measures. Why don't we admit that 40,000 LTC patients died because we did not protect them, and worse, some Governors actively sent infected patients back into the facilities by force?
How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
I don't blame the LTCs. I blame the governors who sent sick patients into them!
This virus sucks. It's very deadly for specific sets of the population. But, again, let's focus on those subsets of the population. Locking down college kids isn't the answer.
It is dangerious for a lot of people. How many college kids have diabetes or high blood pressure or Aids or ashtma? Im not claiming its dangerous for everyone (though it can kill anyone at anytime) but the numbers say the likelihood is lower for some people. Lets not act like 30 years olds haven't dropped dead from the virus with and without underlying medical issues.
We can slowly open up. We can be much more safer. But, minimizing the virus would be a big mistake.
Apparently not that many, since that age group is at least as likely to die from the flu as they are to die from COVID... per actual data from the CDC.
Huh? The death rate from COVID is much higher than the flu in every age bracket.
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - Monarchblue - 05-29-2020 06:31 PM
(05-29-2020 03:50 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:No, it's not.(05-29-2020 02:51 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:32 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:07 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:(05-29-2020 02:02 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: How do we know this directly caused 40,000 deaths? And ignoring those, we still have >60,000 deaths with social distancing (and counting)
And I wouldn't be so quick to place the blame squarely on the LTC facilities when there was not proper planning by anyone ahead of time.
I don't blame the LTCs. I blame the governors who sent sick patients into them!
This virus sucks. It's very deadly for specific sets of the population. But, again, let's focus on those subsets of the population. Locking down college kids isn't the answer.
It is dangerious for a lot of people. How many college kids have diabetes or high blood pressure or Aids or ashtma? Im not claiming its dangerous for everyone (though it can kill anyone at anytime) but the numbers say the likelihood is lower for some people. Lets not act like 30 years olds haven't dropped dead from the virus with and without underlying medical issues.
We can slowly open up. We can be much more safer. But, minimizing the virus would be a big mistake.
Apparently not that many, since that age group is at least as likely to die from the flu as they are to die from COVID... per actual data from the CDC.
Huh? The death rate from COVID is much higher than the flu in every age bracket.
Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
RE: OT- Corona Virus- Where do we go from here? - ODUDJ96 - 05-29-2020 06:45 PM
1,136 to 1,358 in one week (+222 or 19.5% increase).