(04-09-2020 10:47 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:26 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:00 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 2 million estimate was based on doing nothing as a country. Maybe total failure is strong bc we did better than "nothing."

So we have a death rate that is 3x what it should be based on percentage of population, we are stuck at home, and the economy has tanked. Should this be considered anything other than a failure?

Granted, social distancing measures are needed right now and have been done. Thats because we are paying for our sins in December, January, and February.

I don't believe this, but I don't understand how you cannot... If 2M is the estimate based on doing nothing, and we have brought that number down to 60k, which in reality, probably ends up being more like 30K if you consider the fact that every model that ever models anything seems to be wrong in the same direction... too high, then how can you say we have been a total failure?

Your "based on percentage of population" assertion is a really basic way of looking at things. I think we can agree that the situation was handled poorly in NY. If you take one city out of the mix, your assessment would need to change dramatically. Your method also does not account for differences in the ways that countries apply cause of death. We know that Italy has gone back and determined that as few as 12.5% of the deaths they originally attributed to COVID, were not in fact COVID caused deaths. We are beginning to see the same questions raised here. We do know that we see a significant reduction in Pneumonia attributed deaths this year, which tends to indicate that we are attributing too many deaths to COVID at this time. It just isn't an apples to apples way to assess the numbers at all.

Its not an either/or scenario. It seems like a very simple minded point of view if you say "they predicted 2 million deaths, we only have 60k so we did everything right!" The predicted 2 million deaths were with no social distancing. What I don't have is what the estimates would have been had we done proper social distancing...or if we tested early and often....or if we tested everyone...or if we ramped up production of ventilators 2 months ago...or if we restricted travel sooner...etc.

What we can get a gauge on is how we have fared vs. other countries. We should have less than 4.5% of the total deaths worldwide (since we are later than almost everyone else), yet we probably have 15% at this point. Adjust for a range of error and we still have way more deaths than our counterparts. With that number, we also have some drastic social distancing measures.

Based on all the information available, the best course of action against this virus was to act early. Do you think we acted early? Do you think we were prepared? We clearly saw what was happening to China and Italy, why were we not prepared?

Right now we are at 15,000 coronavirus deaths and we are 3 days from the expected peak (countrywide). The next 2 weeks are going to be very deadly. I don't see how its possibly we only have 15,000 more deaths from this virus.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

(04-08-2020 06:11 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(04-08-2020 06:10 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(04-07-2020 05:49 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:58 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(04-04-2020 10:59 AM)Grommet Wrote:  4/04: 21,552 tested, 2407 positive...11.1%

4/05: 23,671 tested, 2637 positive...11.1%

4/06: 24,521 tested, 2878 positive...11.7%

4/07: 28,645 tested, 3333...11.6%

4/08: 30,645 tested, 3545 positive...11.9%

(04-09-2020 11:31 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So, we both know these are educated guesses, but that's fine. Let's assume it's correct. What do you think would have been the result if we followed the Swedish model? Give fair social distancing recommendations, tell high risk folks to stay home, but for the most part, let people make their own choices. That's honestly what I hope we do moving forward, but I really worry that many are just ok with staying completely locked down until the Governor decides it's safe.

(04-09-2020 11:48 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So we’re gonna have hurricanes this year! Could be a Cat 1 in Ocracoke in July, or maybe a Cat 4 in Tampa in September. Or maybe at Cat 2 in Miami in August. In any case, let’s evacuate the entire Atlantic Seaboard this week and burn every house. It will save lives.

(04-09-2020 11:48 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So we’re gonna have hurricanes this year! Could be a Cat 1 in Ocracoke in July, or maybe a Cat 4 in Tampa in September. Or maybe at Cat 2 in Miami in August. In any case, let’s evacuate the entire Atlantic Seaboard this week and burn every house. It will save lives.

(04-09-2020 12:24 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 11:48 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So we’re gonna have hurricanes this year! Could be a Cat 1 in Ocracoke in July, or maybe a Cat 4 in Tampa in September. Or maybe at Cat 2 in Miami in August. In any case, let’s evacuate the entire Atlantic Seaboard this week and burn every house. It will save lives.

There's a hurricane warning! Eh, it's probably some narrative. It's sunny now and I bet it doesn't hit. Certainly no reason to shut down the economy because of some government-mandated evacuations; I thought this was America. I'll wait until we're in the quote-unquote eyewall before I head out to get supplies.

(04-09-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 12:24 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 11:48 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So we’re gonna have hurricanes this year! Could be a Cat 1 in Ocracoke in July, or maybe a Cat 4 in Tampa in September. Or maybe at Cat 2 in Miami in August. In any case, let’s evacuate the entire Atlantic Seaboard this week and burn every house. It will save lives.

There's a hurricane warning! Eh, it's probably some narrative. It's sunny now and I bet it doesn't hit. Certainly no reason to shut down the economy because of some government-mandated evacuations; I thought this was America. I'll wait until we're in the quote-unquote eyewall before I head out to get supplies.

Boy, you walked into one there. Our nanny Gov actually evacuated tens of thousands of people over a hurricane that didn't even come close to hitting us not too long ago. When do we start holding people accountable for overreacting, overhyping, etc?

(04-09-2020 03:07 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 12:24 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 11:48 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:51 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 10:35 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  Maybe it's a matter of perspective. Virginia cases are at 4,000. Honestly, if that number was 5x and was sitting at 20,000 with 500 deaths, I'd still be wondering if it made sense to shut down the entire state economy over this.

Without social distancing you aren't talking about 5x the number of deaths. You are talking about 100x the number of deaths. Just doing a rough(obviously not 100%) pro rata calculation, based on no social distancing, 50,000 deaths in Virginia; 10,000 or so coming from Hampton Roads. Thats probably a hair pessimistic but even so, the numbers without social distancing would have been far greater than 2500 deaths in Virginia.

So we’re gonna have hurricanes this year! Could be a Cat 1 in Ocracoke in July, or maybe a Cat 4 in Tampa in September. Or maybe at Cat 2 in Miami in August. In any case, let’s evacuate the entire Atlantic Seaboard this week and burn every house. It will save lives.

There's a hurricane warning! Eh, it's probably some narrative. It's sunny now and I bet it doesn't hit. Certainly no reason to shut down the economy because of some government-mandated evacuations; I thought this was America. I'll wait until we're in the quote-unquote eyewall before I head out to get supplies.

Boy, you walked into one there. Our nanny Gov actually evacuated tens of thousands of people over a hurricane that didn't even come close to hitting us not too long ago. When do we start holding people accountable for overreacting, overhyping, etc?

(04-09-2020 05:05 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Better not to make a decision that will affect tons of people and have a major economic impact until you have enough data to be relatively certain of your best option.

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(04-09-2020 05:16 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  At this point none of yall are changing anyone's minds.

So I will ask something else. For those at home what is something you've learned.

Thankfully my entire firm was able to work from home and I've learned that is nearly impossible with a 3 and 7 year old at home. There is no safe space to hold a meeting.

On the bright side they are loving having me home.

(04-09-2020 05:55 PM)benny_t Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 05:16 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  At this point none of yall are changing anyone's minds.

So I will ask something else. For those at home what is something you've learned.

Thankfully my entire firm was able to work from home and I've learned that is nearly impossible with a 3 and 7 year old at home. There is no safe space to hold a meeting.

On the bright side they are loving having me home.

Past 2 weeks I worked from home 3 days. The first week was actually really productive. 3 kids 6 or under and a wife and this week was nowhere near as productive. Starting next week I'm working from home full time so hopefully they will be used to it.

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(04-09-2020 05:16 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  At this point none of yall are changing anyone's minds.

So I will ask something else. For those at home what is something you've learned.

Thankfully my entire firm was able to work from home and I've learned that is nearly impossible with a 3 and 7 year old at home. There is no safe space to hold a meeting.

On the bright side they are loving having me home.