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RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 03-29-2020 01:21 AM
(03-28-2020 12:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: I will PM you with a zoom-based bourbon toast to your and your family's health; if interested give me a good time to set it up for via PM. I think I owe you a belated birthday Bourbon (ooohh..... alliteration chills....) Seriously, be safe.
I appreciate the offer. If my wife was in the house, it would be easy to schedule. But with 3 kids all vying for my time every night, it is hard. Last night I played video games with 2 of them until 11 pm. Tonight I watched TV with one of them until 11 pm. Really no free time during the days either. On a personal level, it is actually quite fun (outside the stress). Everyone in the house is getting along great, we are having a ton of fun together, and we are managing our stress and anxiety as well and honestly as we can. But there is even less "me time" than usual these days!
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 03-29-2020 01:32 AM
(03-29-2020 12:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: One hand from the left you have TrumpHitler, the authoritarian. Bad TrumpHitler.
On the other you have them screaming 'he should have full tilt authoritarian under the DPA 4 weeks ago.'
Bad - Congress specifically refuses to authorize money to build a wall. President with authoritarian leanings flips Congress the bird, takes money that had been allocated for other things and reallocates it for a wall.
Also bad - Congress specifically grants the President the general authority to take over private manufacturing capabilities in certain circumstances. These circumstances included the present circumstance of Covid-19 response at least back in mid-February and likely earlier. The President refuses to exercise his Congressionally-approved authority.
I honestly don't see why you don't get it. If Congress says you can't be an authoritarian on something, then the President is so constrained. If Congress says you can be an authoritarian on something else, then the President is responsible for either doing it or not doing it, good or bad.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - tanqtonic - 03-29-2020 01:39 AM
(03-29-2020 12:55 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-28-2020 08:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: ... because CDC and FDA were screwing the pooch.
You know that Trump is at the top of the organizational chart for the CDC and FDA, right? Rhetorical question.
Again, you really think that there is zero organizational inertia, and infinite information speed? Rhetorical question as well, there big. Again, you assume and want both omniscience and prescience. Tough order to prepare, I hate to tell you.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - tanqtonic - 03-29-2020 01:42 AM
(03-29-2020 01:32 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 12:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: One hand from the left you have TrumpHitler, the authoritarian. Bad TrumpHitler.
On the other you have them screaming 'he should have full tilt authoritarian under the DPA 4 weeks ago.'
Bad - Congress specifically refuses to authorize money to build a wall. President with authoritarian leanings flips Congress the bird, takes money that had been allocated for other things and reallocates it for a wall.
Also bad - Congress specifically grants the President the general authority to take over private manufacturing capabilities in certain circumstances. These circumstances included the present circumstance of Covid-19 response at least back in mid-February and likely earlier. The President refuses to exercise his Congressionally-approved authority.
I honestly don't see why you don't get it. If Congress says you can't be an authoritarian on something, then the President is so constrained. If Congress says you can be an authoritarian on something else, then the President is responsible for either doing it or not doing it, good or bad.
I do love the magical mystery bus tour laden with perfect hindsight information, omniscience, and prescience that is preloaded into the second portion of the answer. Bravo.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 03-29-2020 01:46 AM
Here is a short an easy question for the conservatives. Back when most (all?) of you were minimizing the threat of Covid-19 back in late February and early March, where did you think this thing was going? Did any of you honestly think the USA would end up with over 200,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths (numbers that I think the USA will exceed by Wednesday, if not sooner)?
Is a single one of you sitting back and thinking to yourself, "Holy hell this is way worse than I ever expected!"
I'll be honest, I thought it would be pretty bad and it has been much worse than I thought (particularly the affects on the economy and employment). While I knew it was a possibility, I really didn't think it would get to the point where major american cities would be getting overwhelmed by the magnitude of patients needing urgent care. I also didn't think it would get to the point where so many cities and states issued stay-at-home orders. This is pretty close to the worst-case scenario I could have imagined 1 month ago (for this particular virus). Obviously I can imagine worse scenarios for a different hypothetical virus.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 03-29-2020 01:50 AM
(03-29-2020 01:39 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:(03-29-2020 12:55 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-28-2020 08:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: ... because CDC and FDA were screwing the pooch.
You know that Trump is at the top of the organizational chart for the CDC and FDA, right? Rhetorical question.
Again, you really think that there is zero organizational inertia, and infinite information speed? Rhetorical question as well, there big. Again, you assume and want both omniscience and prescience. Tough order to prepare, I hate to tell you.
He is POTUS. If POTUS is screaming back in early February that we need more tests and we need them now, then FDA and CDC will move mountains to do what POTUS is screaming at them about. It just takes someone listening to the experts and lighting fires in the right places. If this had been 10,000 MS-13 members lined up at the southern border, Trump would have been screaming about it. He could have been screaming about Covid-19, but he didn't.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 03-29-2020 02:06 AM
(03-29-2020 01:42 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:(03-29-2020 01:32 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 12:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: One hand from the left you have TrumpHitler, the authoritarian. Bad TrumpHitler.
On the other you have them screaming 'he should have full tilt authoritarian under the DPA 4 weeks ago.'
Bad - Congress specifically refuses to authorize money to build a wall. President with authoritarian leanings flips Congress the bird, takes money that had been allocated for other things and reallocates it for a wall.
Also bad - Congress specifically grants the President the general authority to take over private manufacturing capabilities in certain circumstances. These circumstances included the present circumstance of Covid-19 response at least back in mid-February and likely earlier. The President refuses to exercise his Congressionally-approved authority.
I do love the magical mystery bus tour laden with perfect hindsight information, omniscience, and prescience that is preloaded into the second portion of the answer. Bravo.
It isn't hindsight if people were saying it should have been done back then. Such as this 2/4/20 WSJ op-ed from Trump's former FDA head and Trump's former Director for Medical and Biodefense Preparedness on the NSC. Or these NY Times (1/29/20) and Atlantic (1/30/20) articles warning about mask shortages. Or Senator Sherrod Brown's 5/18/18 letter to Trump & Bolton regarding pandemic response staffing on the NSC and funding for the Global Health Security Agenda.
There are many similar examples out there. It doesn't involve perfect hindsight, omniscience, or prescience. It involves listening to experts and then lighting fires to get things done.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 02:49 AM
(03-29-2020 01:46 AM)mrbig Wrote: Here is a short an easy question for the conservatives. Back when most (all?) of you were minimizing the threat of Covid-19 back in late February and early March, where did you think this thing was going? Did any of you honestly think the USA would end up with over 200,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths (numbers that I think the USA will exceed by Wednesday, if not sooner)?
Is a single one of you sitting back and thinking to yourself, "Holy hell this is way worse than I ever expected!"
I'll be honest, I thought it would be pretty bad and it has been much worse than I thought (particularly the affects on the economy and employment). While I knew it was a possibility, I really didn't think it would get to the point where major american cities would be getting overwhelmed by the magnitude of patients needing urgent care. I also didn't think it would get to the point where so many cities and states issued stay-at-home orders. This is pretty close to the worst-case scenario I could have imagined 1 month ago (for this particular virus). Obviously I can imagine worse scenarios for a different hypothetical virus.
Why do you think I should have panicked back then? I took a wait and see attitude. I waited. I saw.
This is unprecedented in my lifetime. Hard to see how I should have known it would be different from all the others. You tell me.
I have faced crisis and personal danger before. Never found panic to be of much help.
So, no, I didn’t cancel my plans at the first whiff of smoke. Did you?
Do I think Trump has been perfect? No. That’s silly. I don’t expect anybody to be perfect. But that seems to be what you are demanding. Do I think he has been better than Hillary would have been? Yes. Those are the only two alternate universes here.
I am not sure why you continue to harp on this. It seems to be deeper than just antiTrump, although that is certainly part of it. I think it must also include antiOO, antiTanq, and antiNumbers.
Hope you and yours stay safe.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 03-29-2020 06:25 AM
(03-29-2020 01:46 AM)mrbig Wrote: Here is a short an easy question for the conservatives. Back when most (all?) of you were minimizing the threat of Covid-19 back in late February and early March, where did you think this thing was going? Did any of you honestly think the USA would end up with over 200,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths (numbers that I think the USA will exceed by Wednesday, if not sooner)?
Is a single one of you sitting back and thinking to yourself, "Holy hell this is way worse than I ever expected!"
I'll be honest, I thought it would be pretty bad and it has been much worse than I thought (particularly the affects on the economy and employment). While I knew it was a possibility, I really didn't think it would get to the point where major American cities would be getting overwhelmed by the magnitude of patients needing urgent care. I also didn't think it would get to the point where so many cities and states issued stay-at-home orders. This is pretty close to the worst-case scenario I could have imagined 1 month ago (for this particular virus). Obviously I can imagine worse scenarios for a different hypothetical virus.
Actually this is about what I expected when I was saying whatever I was saying back then. The numbers I'm looking at say 120,000 cases and 2,000 deaths as of today, which is far short of 5,000 deaths, and I still think it has to get a lot bigger than 200,000 cases and 5,000 deaths before it justifies the kind of hyperbolic reaction that it has engendered. I'm not saying this as some sort of answer to, "How many deaths are okay?" My answer to that is zero, but zero is not an attainable number. So the trick is not to pick some number of deaths that is "acceptable" but rather to come up with the approach that minimizes deaths with least disruption. I carte greatly about minimizing deaths, maybe not so much about minimizing cases. I'm sorry, but shutting down our economy over something that has produced 5,000 deaths seems a bit nonsensical when flu kills many times that each year and we don't shut down for that. And I say that as one (72, overweight but working on it, cancer survivor, with reduced lung capacity from a childhood disease) who is in a high-risk group, or several.
I think the, "OMG, this could kill hundreds of millions," reaction was way overhyped. I don't think we will ever get anywhere near that, in large part because we have now mobilized the state, local, and private sectors to deal with the problem.
We got started on the back foot. We always do. In part that is inherent with any crisis--it's really, really difficult to be organized and effective from the start of any crisis. In larger part, it's because we really don't have permanent crisis response teams, just ad hoc teams that eventually get formed for each emergency. And to be clear, the NSC pandemic response team that Trump allegedly "fired" (he didn't) is not what I am saying we need. They are bureaucratic planners and administrators, not doers. Just look at that supposed game plan they developed. It's all about coordinating the various bureaucracies. It's not about putting boots on the ground from day one. They're the kind of people, and that's the kind of "plan," that they can point to and say, "Look what a good boy am I," but not something that is actually going to get things done from day one.
What we need is a very specific plan for doers, down to the level that says, "Joe, day one you do this. Nancy, day two you do that." And then Joe and Nancy and a few thousand others need to train on the skills needed to implement that plan, and practice it, and do it when the time comes. We don't have that, and nobody inside the Beltway has any capability to provide that. So in the end, how they shuffle papers has little impact on the outcome.
Now, I have a question for you, or maybe for others. Back in January, when you were going ballistic about how terrible this was going to be and how drastically we needed to respond, did you really think that was necessary for something with a death toll yet to reach five figures? When you were telling us that it could kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, did you really expect to be able to look at a death toll of 5,000 and say, "OMG, this is way worse than I thought"?
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - RiceLad15 - 03-29-2020 08:32 AM
Article in the WashPo focuses on the strategic national stockpile - a bit about its historical use and purpose (it was originally developed to respond to terrorist attacks), preparation of it for COVID-19, but primarily on how it’s recently been tossed around from agency to agency and the current opaqueness of supply distribution.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - RiceLad15 - 03-29-2020 08:37 AM
(03-29-2020 02:06 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 01:42 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:(03-29-2020 01:32 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 12:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: One hand from the left you have TrumpHitler, the authoritarian. Bad TrumpHitler.
On the other you have them screaming 'he should have full tilt authoritarian under the DPA 4 weeks ago.'
Bad - Congress specifically refuses to authorize money to build a wall. President with authoritarian leanings flips Congress the bird, takes money that had been allocated for other things and reallocates it for a wall.
Also bad - Congress specifically grants the President the general authority to take over private manufacturing capabilities in certain circumstances. These circumstances included the present circumstance of Covid-19 response at least back in mid-February and likely earlier. The President refuses to exercise his Congressionally-approved authority.
I do love the magical mystery bus tour laden with perfect hindsight information, omniscience, and prescience that is preloaded into the second portion of the answer. Bravo.
It isn't hindsight if people were saying it should have been done back then. Such as this 2/4/20 WSJ op-ed from Trump's former FDA head and Trump's former Director for Medical and Biodefense Preparedness on the NSC. Or these NY Times (1/29/20) and Atlantic (1/30/20) articles warning about mask shortages. Or Senator Sherrod Brown's 5/18/18 letter to Trump & Bolton regarding pandemic response staffing on the NSC and funding for the Global Health Security Agenda.
There are many similar examples out there. It doesn't involve perfect hindsight, omniscience, or prescience. It involves listening to experts and then lighting fires to get things done.
Remember, Tanq doesn’t like using nuance to deal with each situation. He likes to have a rule that is adhered to in every situation and where there isn’t flexibility. It’s why he often asks where the line is, what percent is correct, and countless other times where he’s interested in an X. It’s kind of like his question earlier this weekend to me about modeling - trying to get me to answer in a definitive manner, when doing so isn’t ideal.
It’s not like all federally mandated actions are the same. There’s a big difference between the fed temporarily mandating manufacturing and the fed mandating that certain cities go into lockdown. I can see reasonable people believe that one of those is an appropriate action and the other isn’t.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - RiceLad15 - 03-29-2020 08:40 AM
(03-29-2020 01:03 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-28-2020 09:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Who do I blame? Well, I think the lion's share belongs somewhere in China.
Even if I agree with this, China obviously isn't something we or our governmental leaders can control in any meaningful sense. Our leaders can control only what they can control.
As for a hypothetical President Hillary Clinton, I don't think she would have been able to restock the PPE supplies in the national reserve. From what I read, that sounds like a budget issues and shows how short-sighted the executive and legislative branches have both been for the last 10 years. That includes Obama, Trump, McConnell, Reid, Ryan, and Pelosi.
Jus posted an article that also talks about how the CDC had a different focus when maintaining the reserve. They funded it through the years, but it’s been viewed as more of a tool to respond to terrorist attacks and not a nationwide pandemic.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - tanqtonic - 03-29-2020 08:57 AM
(03-29-2020 08:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:(03-29-2020 02:06 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 01:42 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:(03-29-2020 01:32 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-29-2020 12:54 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: One hand from the left you have TrumpHitler, the authoritarian. Bad TrumpHitler.
On the other you have them screaming 'he should have full tilt authoritarian under the DPA 4 weeks ago.'
Bad - Congress specifically refuses to authorize money to build a wall. President with authoritarian leanings flips Congress the bird, takes money that had been allocated for other things and reallocates it for a wall.
Also bad - Congress specifically grants the President the general authority to take over private manufacturing capabilities in certain circumstances. These circumstances included the present circumstance of Covid-19 response at least back in mid-February and likely earlier. The President refuses to exercise his Congressionally-approved authority.
I do love the magical mystery bus tour laden with perfect hindsight information, omniscience, and prescience that is preloaded into the second portion of the answer. Bravo.
It isn't hindsight if people were saying it should have been done back then. Such as this 2/4/20 WSJ op-ed from Trump's former FDA head and Trump's former Director for Medical and Biodefense Preparedness on the NSC. Or these NY Times (1/29/20) and Atlantic (1/30/20) articles warning about mask shortages. Or Senator Sherrod Brown's 5/18/18 letter to Trump & Bolton regarding pandemic response staffing on the NSC and funding for the Global Health Security Agenda.
There are many similar examples out there. It doesn't involve perfect hindsight, omniscience, or prescience. It involves listening to experts and then lighting fires to get things done.
Remember, Tanq doesn’t like using nuance to deal with each situation. He likes to have a rule that is adhered to in every situation and where there isn’t flexibility. It’s why he often asks where the line is, what percent is correct, and countless other times where he’s interested in an X. It’s kind of like his question earlier this weekend to me about modeling - trying to get me to answer in a definitive manner, when doing so isn’t ideal.
That only happens when I hear the mush crap stuff like 'structures and tools', which is indicative of people pulling stuff out of their ass. You should be able to discern the broad-based mush statements as such. Guess not. Bummer.
And, quite honestly having an idea of when something happens, or an objective-type test, is also far better than the usual progressive stand to of 'because it is the time.' You know, *that one*, the one that is the rallying cry of most things progressive; including the way they think is typically amazingly concise and clear even Constitutional issues.
Or, I guess, if the alternative is 'because it feels good' is sufficient I might ascertain the butthurt about that from your quarter. I would associate an adherence to that stance with a far shallower pool of analysis.
All in all, given your supposed self-annointed king of 'objective criteria matter', I find your squawk against such matters quite an interesting contrast.
Finally in your cute little rant about "[me] wanting to find a rule in every situation", can you point out one fing point of that in the back and forth that you fing scream about this? Interestingly I reviewed it and didnt see any instance in the issue where I asked for such a rule? I do enjoy how you also seemingly pull entire subjects out of the fing thin air on this one, lad. Bravo, you have one-upped yourself here. Bravo.
But of course that review involved a person who is intentionally obtuse or dense, so I might need some gd help being the 'touched' or 'slow joe banana' that you claim, of course. Stupid rants are fun; stupid rants built on a starting point of zero even more so.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:16 AM
(03-29-2020 06:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Now, I have a question for you, or maybe for others. Back in January, when you were going ballistic about how terrible this was going to be and how drastically we needed to respond, did you really think that was necessary for something with a death toll yet to reach five figures? When you were telling us that it could kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, did you really expect to be able to look at a death toll of 5,000 and say, "OMG, this is way worse than I thought"?
I was wondering what actions he took back in January. did he buy up extra stocks of toilet paper, food, and water? Did he get tons of hand sanitizer? Did he take the kids out of school? When did he move to the carriage house?
When Trump shut down people coming in from China on Jan. 31, a lot of people in his party were accusing Trump of racism and xenophobia. Did he jump up and say, NO NO NO, this is a long overdue action! Did he defend Trump?
Just wondering.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:21 AM
(03-29-2020 01:03 AM)mrbig Wrote:(03-28-2020 09:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Who do I blame? Well, I think the lion's share belongs somewhere in China.
Even if I agree with this, China obviously isn't something we or our governmental leaders can control in any meaningful sense. Our leaders can control only what they can control.
Do you agree with this? Yes or no.
If I understand what you are saying, you don't want to blame China, you are just looking for an American.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:25 AM
(03-29-2020 12:36 AM)mrbig Wrote: I don't see anything that he did right.
I give him an F.
Shocker. So unexpected.
You sound like my ex-wife.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:29 AM
(03-29-2020 08:57 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: That only happens when I hear the mush crap stuff like 'structures and tools',
How about "acting presidential"? I think if we need somebody to act presidential, Morgan Freeman or Harrison Ford would do nicely.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:32 AM
(03-29-2020 06:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: I'm not saying this as some sort of answer to, "How many deaths are okay?" My answer to that is zero,
Saw a reporter ask Trump how many deaths were OK. I guess she thought she had set a trap for him. You could see the disappointment and chagrin on her face when he answered as you did. Not what she wanted to hear.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:43 AM
Phase four
The article did not say how much will need to be given to Planned Parenthood or the NEA to save the country.
the race for virus money
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 03-29-2020 09:53 AM
(03-29-2020 12:41 AM)mrbig Wrote: Buying all that PPE costs money
Just a random thought - how many masks could we have bought with the Cash for Clunkers money?
Three Billion dollars