(03-20-2020 09:30 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/de-blasios-senior-staff-in-near-revolt-over-his-coronavirus-response/

NYC Mayor DeBlasio staff in near revolt over his coronavirus response.

One problem top officials need to realize is criticisms are going to be commonplace in national emergencies like this. Grow a backbone and realize you just need to let the criticism bounce off you for the good of your constituents.

(03-20-2020 08:58 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  What difference does the number of people tested make to measuring efficacy? Why would you test people with virtually no reason to think they had the disease? No exposure, no symptoms. We did the same in Ebola and SARS and everything else. We never had mass testing for those diseases. Never.

(03-20-2020 10:02 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  And, if we take Big's thesis on viewing the EU as a whole as a US equivalent, then it seems that the US response may actually be far better than that of Europe as a whole.

(03-20-2020 10:15 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I agree with the salaries. But you overlook the other point of: how do you keep the businesses afloat? Debt obligations, contract delivery requirements, contract supply schedules, electricity, rent?

I talked with the operating officer of small central Texas independent radio station yesterday (wife of a contractor I am using there) -- ad revenue has gone to zero, how do they pay the rather substantial electric bills for radio transmission?

How does the now shuttered gym pay its monthly obligation on equipment? On rent? While the salary aspect you speak of is substantial, for at least two of my clients that load is 25% or less of the the other outgoing funds. That 25% is nice, it will not keep them as a going concern.

I like your approach on the dimension you come from, but, you dont think about the business organization approach there. If there is no ongoing business operator, there are no future employees.

(03-20-2020 09:56 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 08:58 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  What difference does the number of people tested make to measuring efficacy? Why would you test people with virtually no reason to think they had the disease? No exposure, no symptoms. We did the same in Ebola and SARS and everything else. We never had mass testing for those diseases. Never.

8,098 people caught SARS during the 2003 outbreak. No one in the USA caught the disease in the USA (8 people caught it elsewhere and traveled here). SARS is less infectious than the novel coronavirus and the incubation period is shorter. Of course it didn't make any sense to mass test in the USA in that scenario, there was no benefit to it.

28,616 people caught Ebola during the 2014-16 outbreak. Only 2 of them caught the disease in the USA. Ebola is much, much less infectious than the novel coronavirus and the incubation period is much shorter. I don't think anyone is asyomptomatic with ebola, unlike the current infection. Of course it didn't make any sense to mass test in that scenario, there was no benefit to it.

274,708 people have been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus so far, 19,624 in the USA. It spreads more easily than the common flu and has a longer incubation period. The countries or communities that have done mass testing have had better outcomes than those who haven't. Of course is makes sense to mass test in this scenario in areas where there are outbreaks.

(03-20-2020 10:13 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I wonder how expensive it would be for the federal government to pay all utility bills (corporate and individual) for the next 2 months?

(03-20-2020 10:13 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I wonder how expensive it would be for the federal government to pay all utility bills (corporate and individual) for the next 2 months?

Quote:The study shows nationwide job loss figures (just in hotel industry and related) of over 3.3 million.

(03-21-2020 07:50 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  So, if the virus thing costs us a couple of trillion dollars this year ... and lots of creative ideas about what to do with that money to help everybody who will need it.... any bright ideas how to pay for it? Considering the large amount of people who will be out of work when it ends? And the airline, hospitality, energy and just about every other industry on their knees?
Serious question.

(03-20-2020 10:07 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:15 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I agree with the salaries. But you overlook the other point of: how do you keep the businesses afloat? Debt obligations, contract delivery requirements, contract supply schedules, electricity, rent?

I talked with the operating officer of small central Texas independent radio station yesterday (wife of a contractor I am using there) -- ad revenue has gone to zero, how do they pay the rather substantial electric bills for radio transmission?

How does the now shuttered gym pay its monthly obligation on equipment? On rent? While the salary aspect you speak of is substantial, for at least two of my clients that load is 25% or less of the the other outgoing funds. That 25% is nice, it will not keep them as a going concern.

I like your approach on the dimension you come from, but, you dont think about the business organization approach there. If there is no ongoing business operator, there are no future employees.

I agree that something similar is needed for businesses. Probably best for that to go through the SBA for disaster-specific relief because the SBA can forgive the debts more easily if they are structured as loans. The other option would be to empower the current lenders to these businesses to extend credit or cash to businesses with the banks dealing directly with the federal government.

Regardless, my key message would be that for the next 4-6 weeks, no one should be fired and no businesses should go bankrupt or out of business. That gives the USA time to get a handle on things and determined whether we caught things early enough to gain control of the outbreaks or whether we are screwed and overwhelmed (in which case the bailouts don't help much anyway so the next set of support/bailouts would look different).

(03-21-2020 07:50 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  So, if the virus thing costs us a couple of trillion dollars this year ... and lots of creative ideas about what to do with that money to help everybody who will need it.... any bright ideas how to pay for it? Considering the large amount of people who will be out of work when it ends? And the airline, hospitality, energy and just about every other industry on their knees?
Serious question.

(03-21-2020 08:36 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:07 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:15 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I agree with the salaries. But you overlook the other point of: how do you keep the businesses afloat? Debt obligations, contract delivery requirements, contract supply schedules, electricity, rent?

I talked with the operating officer of small central Texas independent radio station yesterday (wife of a contractor I am using there) -- ad revenue has gone to zero, how do they pay the rather substantial electric bills for radio transmission?

How does the now shuttered gym pay its monthly obligation on equipment? On rent? While the salary aspect you speak of is substantial, for at least two of my clients that load is 25% or less of the the other outgoing funds. That 25% is nice, it will not keep them as a going concern.

I like your approach on the dimension you come from, but, you dont think about the business organization approach there. If there is no ongoing business operator, there are no future employees.

I agree that something similar is needed for businesses. Probably best for that to go through the SBA for disaster-specific relief because the SBA can forgive the debts more easily if they are structured as loans. The other option would be to empower the current lenders to these businesses to extend credit or cash to businesses with the banks dealing directly with the federal government.

Regardless, my key message would be that for the next 4-6 weeks, no one should be fired and no businesses should go bankrupt or out of business. That gives the USA time to get a handle on things and determined whether we caught things early enough to gain control of the outbreaks or whether we are screwed and overwhelmed (in which case the bailouts don't help much anyway so the next set of support/bailouts would look different).

How about contractor types? For example, the photographer that just literally lost 3 mos. of bookings? Or the guys at the chiropractic place where my wife gets her back stretched? They get paid as contractors on a per session basis.

(03-21-2020 08:43 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 07:50 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  So, if the virus thing costs us a couple of trillion dollars this year ... and lots of creative ideas about what to do with that money to help everybody who will need it.... any bright ideas how to pay for it? Considering the large amount of people who will be out of work when it ends? And the airline, hospitality, energy and just about every other industry on their knees?
Serious question.

This has ties to getting out of 2008. Trump had the option of growing out of the hole or inflating out of it.

Our growth disappeared almost overnight, the Fed is back in very short order with zero interest monetary injections, and there is talk of re-implementing QE. With the last two points that means we have no powder left.

I see only one outcome --- inflating out of it.

As the recession starts to gain traction up, I am going to go to almost zero liquid cash.

(03-21-2020 09:34 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 08:43 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 07:50 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  So, if the virus thing costs us a couple of trillion dollars this year ... and lots of creative ideas about what to do with that money to help everybody who will need it.... any bright ideas how to pay for it? Considering the large amount of people who will be out of work when it ends? And the airline, hospitality, energy and just about every other industry on their knees?
Serious question.

This has ties to getting out of 2008. Trump had the option of growing out of the hole or inflating out of it.

Our growth disappeared almost overnight, the Fed is back in very short order with zero interest monetary injections, and there is talk of re-implementing QE. With the last two points that means we have no powder left.

I see only one outcome --- inflating out of it.

As the recession starts to gain traction up, I am going to go to almost zero liquid cash.

I agree with that. Monetizing the debt, or at least a decent part would seem
to be the least painful... in the short run. Especially when inflation is so low at present. The danger, I think, would be an early 80’s scenario when interest rates went out of control. Along with the general economy really slowing to a halt.

(03-21-2020 08:48 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-21-2020 08:36 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:07 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:15 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I agree with the salaries. But you overlook the other point of: how do you keep the businesses afloat? Debt obligations, contract delivery requirements, contract supply schedules, electricity, rent?

I talked with the operating officer of small central Texas independent radio station yesterday (wife of a contractor I am using there) -- ad revenue has gone to zero, how do they pay the rather substantial electric bills for radio transmission?

How does the now shuttered gym pay its monthly obligation on equipment? On rent? While the salary aspect you speak of is substantial, for at least two of my clients that load is 25% or less of the the other outgoing funds. That 25% is nice, it will not keep them as a going concern.

I like your approach on the dimension you come from, but, you dont think about the business organization approach there. If there is no ongoing business operator, there are no future employees.

I agree that something similar is needed for businesses. Probably best for that to go through the SBA for disaster-specific relief because the SBA can forgive the debts more easily if they are structured as loans. The other option would be to empower the current lenders to these businesses to extend credit or cash to businesses with the banks dealing directly with the federal government.

Regardless, my key message would be that for the next 4-6 weeks, no one should be fired and no businesses should go bankrupt or out of business. That gives the USA time to get a handle on things and determined whether we caught things early enough to gain control of the outbreaks or whether we are screwed and overwhelmed (in which case the bailouts don't help much anyway so the next set of support/bailouts would look different).

How about contractor types? For example, the photographer that just literally lost 3 mos. of bookings? Or the guys at the chiropractic place where my wife gets her back stretched? They get paid as contractors on a per session basis.

And the self-employed. And the workers that depend on tips.

Big wants to stop businesses from declaring bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is there to protect businesses when their debt is bigger than their assets and their income is too little to service the debt. How is preventing them from the legal protections of bankruptcy helping them...or us?

The best way to save businesses and jobs is to find a solution to the virus other than distancing.