(03-20-2020 04:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:15 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  "Clinton has a significant amount of experience ... within the world of public health through the Clinton foundation."

You need to try out for the Tonight Show guest host slot with lines like that.

How about add this one: Clinton has a significant amount of experience within financial institutions and Federal financial policythrough the her experience with Arkansas real estate lending practices.

Lol - I chuckled at that one.

I wish it had made him think instead of laugh.

He doesn't see the parallel.

(03-20-2020 04:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:15 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  "Clinton has a significant amount of experience ... within the world of public health through the Clinton foundation."

You need to try out for the Tonight Show guest host slot with lines like that.

How about add this one: Clinton has a significant amount of experience within financial institutions and Federal financial policythrough the her experience with Arkansas real estate lending practices.

Lol - I chuckled at that one.

I wish it had made him think instead of laugh.

He doesn't see the parallel.

(03-20-2020 04:09 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 01:57 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 01:50 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:54 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  How do I get it to go back farther than 2-27-2020? Apparently your response is older.

Or you could take 3 minutes and answer the question again.

Holy heck, I found this in less than 30 seconds.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-895134-post-16743733.html?highlight=Clinton#pid16743733

so you could have responded in 30 seconds but refused to do so?

My goodness you're acting helpless.

Arrogant and condescending.

(03-20-2020 04:11 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 03:28 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 03:19 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 11:29 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Anyone here think any of the following possible/probable?

1) Federal no-fly rule -- say, up to two weeks.

2) Federal stock market freeze -- say the same time frame.

I think after the California announcement, 1 and 2 jumped from loony tunes land to me to the 'could be' range. Feds used the same tools in 1 and 2 post 9/11 for, iirc, three days afterwards. Just saying this isnt fiction land, and this *is* at the same level of 9/11 in my opinion.

A no-fly rule for 2 weeks -- or anywhere near it -- would be economic suicide. These "shelter in place orders" are economic suicide also, because they are not really "orders" and (rightly) have exceptions for any activity you could think of, but are irresponsibly couched in mandatory terms and are stoking wild panic among citizens. My suburb issued one, complete with a warning that violating any aspect of it would be punishable by up to a year in jail, only to be forced to clarify hours later, after being inundated with calls from residents (not me, mind you -- as a lawyer, I could read it and instantly see it had no teeth (thank God)), that it really was just advisory, police would not be enforcing it, people were not being required to stay home from work, and it was "just meant to raise awareness around the practice of social distancing." But of course it caused yet another hysterical run on grocery stores in the meanwhile.

And all over a virus that is going to have a death rate in the tenths of a percentage point when all is said and done.

This is *not* 9/11 . . . but it *will* turn into an economic 9/11 -- and worse by orders of magnitude -- if we do not stop allowing medical/public health officials to dictate all aspects of public policy. We have literally given doctors -- who are, with all due respect, not economically literate, because it's not their job to be -- a blank check to "stop the virus," and predictably, with no clue or care to any other public-policy consideration, they are writing down fantasy numbers followed by an unfathomable string of zeroes. Somebody needs to kick them out of the control room or the cure is going to be infinitely worse than the disease.

I read this and chuckled.
My response: Covid -19 is too important to be left to the politicians.

It takes a special kind of hubris to take Clemenceau's aphorism that "war is too important to be left to the generals," widely considered unassailably wise, and say "nonsense."

Not saying health professionals shouldn't have a voice at the table but it's lunacy to cede all of public policy to them to stop their ox from being gored. There are worse things than the health care system getting temporarily overburdened (which it can and will adapt to) and we are about to find them out if we don't stop sacrificing everything on that altar.

(03-20-2020 04:15 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  This site is interesting:

https://healthweather.us/

Quote:Kinsa Health has sold or given away more than a million smart thermometers to households in which two million people reside, and thus can record fevers almost as soon as consumers experience them.

For the last few years, Kinsa’s interactive maps have accurately predicted the spread of flu around the United States about two weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s own surveillance tool, the weekly FluView tracker…

Company scientists are uniquely positioned to identify unusual clusters of fever because they have years of data for expected flu cases in each ZIP code. A sudden spike that far exceeds estimates for flu for a given date may well indicate the coronavirus has arrived…

If accurate, there is a real problem brewing in Florida.

(03-20-2020 04:56 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 04:11 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 03:28 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 03:19 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 11:29 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Anyone here think any of the following possible/probable?

1) Federal no-fly rule -- say, up to two weeks.

2) Federal stock market freeze -- say the same time frame.

I think after the California announcement, 1 and 2 jumped from loony tunes land to me to the 'could be' range. Feds used the same tools in 1 and 2 post 9/11 for, iirc, three days afterwards. Just saying this isnt fiction land, and this *is* at the same level of 9/11 in my opinion.

A no-fly rule for 2 weeks -- or anywhere near it -- would be economic suicide. These "shelter in place orders" are economic suicide also, because they are not really "orders" and (rightly) have exceptions for any activity you could think of, but are irresponsibly couched in mandatory terms and are stoking wild panic among citizens. My suburb issued one, complete with a warning that violating any aspect of it would be punishable by up to a year in jail, only to be forced to clarify hours later, after being inundated with calls from residents (not me, mind you -- as a lawyer, I could read it and instantly see it had no teeth (thank God)), that it really was just advisory, police would not be enforcing it, people were not being required to stay home from work, and it was "just meant to raise awareness around the practice of social distancing." But of course it caused yet another hysterical run on grocery stores in the meanwhile.

And all over a virus that is going to have a death rate in the tenths of a percentage point when all is said and done.

This is *not* 9/11 . . . but it *will* turn into an economic 9/11 -- and worse by orders of magnitude -- if we do not stop allowing medical/public health officials to dictate all aspects of public policy. We have literally given doctors -- who are, with all due respect, not economically literate, because it's not their job to be -- a blank check to "stop the virus," and predictably, with no clue or care to any other public-policy consideration, they are writing down fantasy numbers followed by an unfathomable string of zeroes. Somebody needs to kick them out of the control room or the cure is going to be infinitely worse than the disease.

I read this and chuckled.
My response: Covid -19 is too important to be left to the politicians.

It takes a special kind of hubris to take Clemenceau's aphorism that "war is too important to be left to the generals," widely considered unassailably wise, and say "nonsense."

Not saying health professionals shouldn't have a voice at the table but it's lunacy to cede all of public policy to them to stop their ox from being gored. There are worse things than the health care system getting temporarily overburdened (which it can and will adapt to) and we are about to find them out if we don't stop sacrificing everything on that altar.

Perhaps my comment came out as snarky when it was meant to be sincere. For that I apologize.
However, correct me if I’m wrong, your comment seems to imply that the recommendations from the (educated and concerned) medical community is somehow self-serving. That, somehow, the medical community is recommending these serious measures because it will save the “industry”, if you will, and that “temporarily overburdening” the system can and will be dealt with.
Yes. I believe it can. But at what cost? My opinion and I believe it’s the considered opinion of most medical professionals, is that in a worse case scenario.... one that we are headed for if we do not put these severe measures in place and ENFORCE them... we will see the medical landscape change in ways we have never seen.
Simply put, even after marshaling all of our resources, ventilators, MASH hospitals, switching industries over to medical manufacturing, moon-shot attempts at developing vaccines, etc we can not prevent a nightmare scenario. Families weeping in waiting rooms because their loved one was chosen to be the person NOT to be put on a ventilator. Critically ill patients being cared for in tents without the usual advanced medical equipment available in most hospitals at present, choosing to NOT treat elderly patients because their situation might be too far advanced to warrant using precious and scarce resources, medical personnel on the front lines being forced.. or volunteering... to care for critically ill patients without PPE’s, people dying from MI’s, or acute surgical illness because ALL of the beds in the ICUs are full of corona virus patients.... This has the potential to not only change health care in this nation, but to alter the lives of thousands. Maybe hundreds of thousands.
Personally, I have stopped all travel. I notified my office to suspend my practice. We have instituted a policy in my practice of screening and calling patients to make sure any unnecessary office visits are eliminated. And I’m staying home and not exposing my friends and family... or myself. I encourage you to do the same. Yes, it’s a big economic price to pay, but in my opinion, not doing it will cost even more.
So. I’m getting off my soapbox, now. I was getting dizzy from the height.

(03-19-2020 06:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Jonathan -- your gym would absolutely fall under the statewide order closing gyms effective 12:01 am tomorrow statewide and announced by Abbot this morning, which also includes a statewide 10 person limit.

And honestly, I have some very good clients in the gym industry in Austin. The science that came to the forefront day before yesterday on the surface survivability of the virus is rather shocking. Those reports had all of my gym clients shut their doors voluntarily *prior* to the Travis County and City of Austin order on 10 people.

(03-20-2020 06:35 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(03-19-2020 06:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Jonathan -- your gym would absolutely fall under the statewide order closing gyms effective 12:01 am tomorrow statewide and announced by Abbot this morning, which also includes a statewide 10 person limit.

And honestly, I have some very good clients in the gym industry in Austin. The science that came to the forefront day before yesterday on the surface survivability of the virus is rather shocking. Those reports had all of my gym clients shut their doors voluntarily *prior* to the Travis County and City of Austin order on 10 people.

I'm not sure that you're getting the gist of my complaint. It's understandable that the gym, with its cavernous interior that can accommodate dozens of people, shut down. What's less understandable is why the tiny exercise room that is rarely-used in my apartment complex is being locked up. It's not just that; visits to the complex office are now forbidden, and maintenance will be provided only for "emergency" repairs.

You yourself have experienced and noted the economic disruption these actions are creating. Given the level of risk involved, are these actions worth it?

(03-20-2020 06:35 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(03-19-2020 06:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Jonathan -- your gym would absolutely fall under the statewide order closing gyms effective 12:01 am tomorrow statewide and announced And honestly, I have some very good clients in the gym industry in Austin. The science that came to the forefront day before yesterday on the surface survivability of the virus is rather shocking. Those reports had all of my gym clients shut their doors voluntarily *prior* to the Travis County and City of Austin order on 10 people.

by Abbot this morning, which also includes a statewide 10 person limit.



I'm not sure that you're getting the gist of my complaint. It's understandable that the gym, with its cavernous interior that can accommodate dozens of people, shut down. What's less understandable is why the tiny exercise room that is rarely-used in my apartment complex is being locked up. It's not just that; visits to the complex office are now forbidden, and maintenance will be provided only for "emergency" repairs.

You yourself have experienced and noted the economic disruption these actions are creating. Given the level of risk involved, are these actions worth it?

(03-20-2020 07:24 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 06:35 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(03-19-2020 06:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Jonathan -- your gym would absolutely fall under the statewide order closing gyms effective 12:01 am tomorrow statewide and announced by Abbot this morning, which also includes a statewide 10 person limit.

And honestly, I have some very good clients in the gym industry in Austin. The science that came to the forefront day before yesterday on the surface survivability of the virus is rather shocking. Those reports had all of my gym clients shut their doors voluntarily *prior* to the Travis County and City of Austin order on 10 people.

I'm not sure that you're getting the gist of my complaint. It's understandable that the gym, with its cavernous interior that can accommodate dozens of people, shut down. What's less understandable is why the tiny exercise room that is rarely-used in my apartment complex is being locked up. It's not just that; visits to the complex office are now forbidden, and maintenance will be provided only for "emergency" repairs.

You yourself have experienced and noted the economic disruption these actions are creating. Given the level of risk involved, are these actions worth it?

The surface viability reports of the last two days have changed my mind to at least that aspect considering the operation of a gym. Even with constant cleaning.

I would think that a rarely used gym would engender certain risks that are not present in a much-used gym. The much used gym presents the danger of group, social contact -- which is believed to be a primary transmission mechanism.

The rarely-used gym knocks that avenue out; but a rarely used gym is also, by definition, a rarely wiped gym, let alone a rarely deep cleaned gym. And again, the surface life of the Wuhan virus has been shown by preliminary studies to have up to a 3 week life on rubber and plastic; up to week on steel. And, the epidemiologists are seemingly showing that surface transmission is a modality that leads to at least some infection.

Not trying to spark an argument, but given those indications I dont think I would use a rarely-used gym that more people than I had access to any more than I would engage in a HIIT class these days.

All that said, I sincerely hope that there will be an avenue open for you to do your rehab work, some way, some how.

(03-20-2020 04:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 04:22 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:55 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:15 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  "Clinton has a significant amount of experience ... within the world of public health through the Clinton foundation."

You need to try out for the Tonight Show guest host slot with lines like that.

How about add this one: Clinton has a significant amount of experience within financial institutions and Federal financial policythrough the her experience with Arkansas real estate lending practices.

Lol - I chuckled at that one.

I wish it had made him think instead of laugh.

He doesn't see the parallel.

Oh c'mon, it's not even a real, direct parallel. I know the Clinton Foundation is a boogeyman for some serious good and Hillary actually did some work within its structure.

It was a good joke, though.

(03-20-2020 04:47 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Oh c'mon, it's not even a real, direct parallel. I know the Clinton Foundation is a boogeyman for some serious good and Hillary actually did some work within its structure.

(03-20-2020 12:34 PM)ausowl Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 10:15 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 02:33 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-20-2020 12:18 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  And assuming that, how fing good are you going to feel 'proving' how bad Trump is after the weekend is done, we have 40 fing million people under essentially medical house arrest, and probably another 10 million with no jobs?

No offense big, (and #s) the time to proudly proclaim 'how anti Trump' you are, or 'how fing bad Trump', or whether Trump did what he could and felt prudent was justified based on the facts at the time is not really now. Just saying.

Ive gone nearly 72 hours without sleep trying to save 5 clients businesses and the 200+ jobs associated them, so the ongoing contest of either big's and lad's anti-Trump dick is bigger than any defense of Trump is kind of stale at this point to me.

Whether a fing one person position at the NSC would have made a hill of beans difference at this juncture seems kind of venal. And bluntly, if you dont like Trumps actions, then dont fing vote him. Now that is settled, lets all try to do our damndest to keep whatever little corner we can going forward.

Sorry, I am seriously punchy due to lack of sleep, and at this point pretty gd depressed.

No worries, I think we all get it at this point.

My one comment on the work you are doing is that I wished the current stimulus bill was structured completely different. I wish the federal government could say "businesses, don't fire anyone. we will guarantee the normal pay of your employees (including a fair estimate of tips for those in the service industry) for the next 4-6 weeks, capped at payment of an annual salary of $xxx,xxx (whatever congress can agree on). Profiteering from this will be a felony, so you better be honest with your claims because we are processing them now, sending out the checks now, and reviewing the substance of the claims later. Also, banks should extend short-term loans needed to cover these salary reimbursements at no interest, to be reimbursed by the companies when they receive their checks. Any bank who does not comply will not be eligible for any potential bank bailout that might be needed as future steps."

I agree with the salaries. But you overlook the other point of: how do you keep the businesses afloat? Debt obligations, contract delivery requirements, contract supply schedules, electricity, rent?

I talked with the operating officer of small central Texas independent radio station yesterday (wife of a contractor I am using there) -- ad revenue has gone to zero, how do they pay the rather substantial electric bills for radio transmission?

How does the now shuttered gym pay its monthly obligation on equipment? On rent? While the salary aspect you speak of is substantial, for at least two of my clients that load is 25% or less of the the other outgoing funds. That 25% is nice, it will not keep them as a going concern.

I like your approach on the dimension you come from, but, you dont think about the business organization approach there. If there is no ongoing business operator, there are no future employees.

MrB + Tanq = offer a far better solution than the Pelosi-McConnell throw money randomly into the economy. Banks would have the granular knowledge of their business clients (and a huge incentive) to make this work.

(03-20-2020 08:36 PM)mrbig Wrote:  My daily chart. Not much good to say. Hopefully some of the bigger outbreaks in the USA slow their growth with either the either required or strongly encouraged social distancing. USA now with the most infections at day 15 on my graph plus the steepest slope at such a time.

New Orleans metro area up to about ~425 confirmed cases with a metro population of 1,275,000. That is 1 confirmed infection for every 3,000 people (and growing). I read earlier today that we have the 2nd highest number of infections per capita in the USA. Stupid Mardi Gras!


Starker than Iron Man.

Quote:Infectious diseases will continue to emerge and re-emerge. I think it's part of the world we live in now," Eric Toner, a senior scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, previously told Business Insider.

"We're in an age of epidemics because of globalization, because of encroachment on wild environments."

(03-20-2020 08:36 PM)mrbig Wrote:  My daily chart. Not much good to say. Hopefully some of the bigger outbreaks in the USA slow their growth with either the either required or strongly encouraged social distancing. USA now with the most infections at day 15 on my graph plus the steepest slope at such a time.

New Orleans metro area up to about ~425 confirmed cases with a metro population of 1,275,000. That is 1 confirmed infection for every 3,000 people (and growing). I read earlier today that we have the 2nd highest number of infections per capita in the USA. Stupid Mardi Gras!


Starker than Iron Man.

Quote:The result of the tracking is not only used by health authorities but also made public via national and local government websites, free smartphone apps that show the locations of infections, and text message updates about new local cases. This help citizens avoid hotspots of infections.