(03-15-2020 11:09 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Update on my nephew - apparently DFW and O'Hair are the worst two airports. He just landed at JFK and actually got there just at the right time. He was thru customs in minutes, so don't believe everything you read.
He also was lucky in the timing as he was most recently in Uzbekistan which just had its first case. That country has immediately shut down all international flights so the folks he was with are now stranded there. Apparently for now, they can take a train so they're all trying to take a train to Russia and fly out of that country.

Quote: States cannot build more hospitals, acquire ventilators or modify facilities quickly enough. At this point, our best hope is to utilize the Army Corps of Engineers to leverage its expertise, equipment and people power to retrofit and equip existing facilities — like military bases or college dormitories — to serve as temporary medical centers. Then we can designate existing hospital beds for the acutely ill.

We believe the use of active duty Army Corps personnel would not violate federal law because this is a national disaster. Doing so still won’t provide enough intensive care beds, but it is our best hope.

Quote:"The company that we are, shall we say, cribbing the most off of…they have a phase two clinical trial using the exact same approach for MERS [Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome]," says the biohacker.

The method has successfully produced antibodies to MERS but remains untested on a large population because there has been no outbreak since it was developed. Still, this gives the biohacker and his team enough confidence to proceed.

Quote:An examination of how the Trump administration responded to the coronavirus outbreak that was first documented in December reveals a story of missed opportunities, mismanagement and a president who resisted the advice of experts urging a more aggressive response. All the while, Trump made a series of upbeat claims, some of which were flatly false, including that the number of cases was declining in the U.S. and that “anybody who needs a test gets a test.”

Quote:On Jan. 8, the CDC issued an alert about the disease. But the agency was without one of its crucial partners in combatting such a threat. The CDC would have worked closely with the NSC’s global health unit, but that had been disbanded.

U.S. intelligence analysts also flagged the mysterious Chinese outbreak. The National Center for Medical Intelligence, which is part of the Defense Intelligence Agency, reported in early January that 59 people had been stricken ill, a U.S. intelligence official told NBC News. Then the numbers quickly mushroomed to 548 sick and 17 dead, the official said.

...


In 2018, Trump fired his homeland security adviser, Thomas Bossert, whose portfolio included global pandemics. The next month, national security adviser John Bolton disbanded the NSC’s global health unit. Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer, the top official in charge of a pandemic response, also left his job. So did Borio, whose title was director for medical and biodefense preparedness.

None of them was replaced. That meant Trump had no top advisers in the White House with expertise in global pandemics.

Quote:Current and former officials describe a president who would get fixated on discrete aspects of the problem, from large to small, and go off on tangents about them during meetings.

Initially he was worried about worsening relations with China, they say. Then he fretted about the stock markets, and his chief goal was to stabilize a financial indicator that he’d made a central part of his re-election campaign.

Quote:“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump wrote. “We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

The next day, a senior health professional gave the opposite message.

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters in a news briefing.

Nobody at the White House had been saying anything close to that in public. Stock prices plummeted after the news conference.

Trump was furious, people briefed on the matter told NBC News, and urged that Messonier be muzzled.

Quote:The Trump White House continued to balk at health professionals who wanted to issue stark advice, officials told NBC News. One example: The CDC wanted to recommend that anyone over 60 remain inside their homes whenever possible, but was told not to say that by Trump administration officials, three people familiar with the matter told NBC News.

(03-15-2020 03:51 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If a strong leader would have said, "No, CDC, we are not going to wait on you to develop a test, we are going to use the WHO test that the rest of the world uses. And no, CDC, we are not going to have you evaluating all tests, we are going to use state, local, and private sector resources to do so.

(03-15-2020 01:09 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have an idea, suggested by a former faculty colleague of mine.

Why not just quarantine the people who are at highest risk, and let life go on for the rest of us?

(03-15-2020 03:46 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(03-15-2020 01:09 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have an idea, suggested by a former faculty colleague of mine.
Why not just quarantine the people who are at highest risk, and let life go on for the rest of us?

Spoken like a true ivory-tower denizen.

(03-15-2020 05:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  A new WSJ/NBC News poll shows that just 30% of Republicans have either stopped attending large gatherings or plan to follow that approach while more than twice that number (61%) of Democrats say they no longer will attend large gatherings.

(03-13-2020 05:21 PM)Foff Wrote:  so u agree its absurd for donny to talk about SWINE FLU FULL SCALE DISASTER, yes? yes.

and u got the ODS real real bad if u think he pimped stock performance under him anything like donny has. find me one quote one where he takes credit. donnys got hundreds.

(03-13-2020 05:45 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  But there is no evidence to even speculate, in a realistic manner, that there will be. Like, it shouldn’t be part of the conversation because there is no evidence.

(03-14-2020 01:03 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(03-13-2020 07:58 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I think the best thing Trump did today is to bring the private sector into the effort. That's the way to get things done, not relying on the three stooges--CDC, FDA, and NIH.

The "three stooges" do a whole hell of a lot of good. Surely ruowls or Hambone will back up the opinion of a fellow science-lover?

(03-14-2020 12:21 PM)mrbig Wrote:  . Am I correct that the keys are: (1) identifying the infected;

(03-14-2020 12:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:  As to the critical cases becoming overwhelming, this is an issue that is being sensationalized.
We don't know the fatality rate because we don't know the number of truly infected persons. The preliminary number has been over 3. However, the current number in South Korea is 0.79. If the numbers of infected reach flu like numbers, then you could have a serious problem. But if the numbers stay in the current range, and the fatality rate approximates South Korea, this is a non issue. But it stresses the importance of people minimizing casual contact to choke off the spread.

(03-15-2020 12:15 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Cuomo Op-Ed in the Times calls for using Army Corps and National Guard to quickly increase total number of hospital beds available in US.

I posted this earlier, and seems like it’s maybe picking up traction.

Quote: States cannot build more hospitals, acquire ventilators or modify facilities quickly enough. At this point, our best hope is to utilize the Army Corps of Engineers to leverage its expertise, equipment and people power to retrofit and equip existing facilities — like military bases or college dormitories — to serve as temporary medical centers. Then we can designate existing hospital beds for the acutely ill.

We believe the use of active duty Army Corps personnel would not violate federal law because this is a national disaster. Doing so still won’t provide enough intensive care beds, but it is our best hope.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-trump.html

(03-16-2020 10:01 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(03-15-2020 12:15 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Cuomo Op-Ed in the Times calls for using Army Corps and National Guard to quickly increase total number of hospital beds available in US.

I posted this earlier, and seems like it’s maybe picking up traction.

Quote: States cannot build more hospitals, acquire ventilators or modify facilities quickly enough. At this point, our best hope is to utilize the Army Corps of Engineers to leverage its expertise, equipment and people power to retrofit and equip existing facilities — like military bases or college dormitories — to serve as temporary medical centers. Then we can designate existing hospital beds for the acutely ill.

We believe the use of active duty Army Corps personnel would not violate federal law because this is a national disaster. Doing so still won’t provide enough intensive care beds, but it is our best hope.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-trump.html

Which is precisely what declaring a state of emergency makes possible.

We aren't remotely close to overwhelming our hospital systems now, especially in that one of the biggest issue isn't beds, but clinicians.... so long as people don't behave irrationally... but all one has to do is see the toilet paper aisles to know that is the case...

But the solution to irrational behavior isn't to set up military mash units on every street corner (we already have a few bases that have been set aside for quarantines)... but instead to reduce/eliminate the panic.

Quote:we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

(03-16-2020 11:13 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So, with regards to the previous semantic thrash-fest re: heat and humidity:

Quote:we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 -- "High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19"

(03-16-2020 12:12 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Trying to respond to multiple things you said, Lad... without getting another 2 page response...

If you want to know what I would say to my boss... I would say... we all know this is grossly overblown... however, given the political climate, the RISK TO THE ORGANIZATION is to even appear to downplay it and then have something happen, even if it is really unrelated to what we said or did.... because as we all know, there are lots of stupid people in this world and even more people just looking for someone to blame for something/an angle. Therefore, DESPITE the facts and truth and science and numbers, we should focus on the risks, not the reality. It's sort of the 'assume the gun is loaded' standard of care... Scientifically, if you've verified that the gun is unloaded, you are fine... but it is a 'best practice' (because the risk is so high) to act like it is loaded anyway (in terms of handling).

As to 'hard science' being necessary in these situations... I disagree greatly. Hard science would tell you that if you don't have a complicating issue yourself or someone close to you... you'll be fine. Hard science would also tell you that 50,000 US deaths is a rounding error and consistent with many other health issues. Consider though that at least half of the fight over 'gun control' deals with rifles, including assault rifles and 'machine guns' which in total are responsible for fewer than 500 deaths a year.... whether gang related, suicide, murder, mass shooting or accident.

But more to the point... If Hard Science is so important, why were you so insistent that people 'not even allow into the conversation' a scientific possibility and that we should default to something that wasn't scientifically proven? That there IS no seasonality? The answer to that question relates to my initial response above.

I assume that this is a relatively well-informed, non-reactionary group of people on this forum. A few who have expressed a limited concern I know for a fact are not that way... If this were my facebook, I would be careful not to give the real facts to people and instead, like my advice to my boss, focus on the risks.

Given who the CDC et al are and what they do... I feel EXTREMELY confident that this is exactly what they are doing... focusing on the risks and knowing that the average American is a reactionary moron and/or opportunist.

(03-16-2020 11:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 11:13 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So, with regards to the previous semantic thrash-fest re: heat and humidity:

Quote:we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 -- "High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19"

That's good to see! Hard science is necessary in these situations - making broad assumptions without them can lead to serious consequences. Hopefully further information will back this up, allowing us to reduce the spread and be better prepared for the onset of colder weather at the end of the year.