Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Printable Version +- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com) +-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html) +--- Forum: AACbbs (/forum-460.html) +---- Forum: Members (/forum-401.html) +----- Forum: Rice (/forum-444.html) +------ Forum: Kent Rowald Memorial Quad (/forum-660.html) +------ Thread: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread (/thread-895134.html) Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 |
RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - mrbig - 02-27-2020 10:27 PM (02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-27-2020 04:35 PM)mrbig Wrote: Honest question, but do you have a medical, epidemiological, infectious disease, or public health background? If not, I'm not sure how you can come to this conclusion. I was talking about a specific quote where you stated something as fact, not as opinion. So I was trying to determine whether you were offering some kind of expert-type analysis or whether you were just stating an opinion in the form of a fact. Thank you for clarifying. (02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The experts tell me that coronavirus isn't a very serious illness if you're not already sick, which I'm not. Objectively, it's no worse than flu, and certainly a lot less serious than Ebola. Depends on how you look at things. COVID-19 is much easier to transmit than Ebola, so in that sense COVID-19 is arguably more serious because it is more difficult to contain. COVID-19 kills at 20x the rate of the flu (~2.0% compared to 0.1%), so in that sense it is arguably objectively worse than the flu. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - illiniowl - 02-28-2020 12:02 AM (02-27-2020 10:10 PM)ausowl Wrote:My college-junior son is heading to Japan in 3 weeks for a study-abroad term running through July . . . hopefully. Dodged a bullet today with Japan not including universities in the schools shutdown. Could still see his USA school pull the plug -- programs to Italy are now being canceled like those to China and Hong Kong -- but that would be a gross overreaction IMO and incredibly disappointing. Japan is not China, COVID-19 is not Ebola, and healthy young adults are not an at-risk population.(02-27-2020 06:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:(02-27-2020 04:54 PM)ruowls Wrote: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/ My own trip to JPN & HKG in July remains on schedule! COVID-19 will be long over with by then. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-28-2020 12:07 AM (02-27-2020 10:27 PM)mrbig Wrote:(02-27-2020 05:46 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The experts tell me that coronavirus isn't a very serious illness if you're not already sick, which I'm not. Objectively, it's no worse than flu, and certainly a lot less serious than Ebola.Depends on how you look at things. COVID-19 is much easier to transmit than Ebola, so in that sense COVID-19 is arguably more serious because it is more difficult to contain. Well, keep in mind that the virus is still principally in China, so any statistical data are heavily weighted toward China's experience at this point. And China has one of the very few truly single-payer health systems. Let's see how their handling of this compares to ours at the end of the day. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - RiceLad15 - 02-28-2020 07:13 AM (02-28-2020 12:02 AM)illiniowl Wrote:(02-27-2020 10:10 PM)ausowl Wrote:My college-junior son is heading to Japan in 3 weeks for a study-abroad term running through July . . . hopefully. Dodged a bullet today with Japan not including universities in the schools shutdown. Could still see his USA school pull the plug -- programs to Italy are now being canceled like those to China and Hong Kong -- but that would be a gross overreaction IMO and incredibly disappointing. Japan is not China, COVID-19 is not Ebola, and healthy young adults are not an at-risk population.(02-27-2020 06:56 PM)ruowls Wrote:(02-27-2020 06:02 PM)ausowl Wrote:(02-27-2020 05:01 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Thanks, Dr. RU (for those that don't know, I mean literally RUOWLS, MD) My wife’s university has moved to asking all faculty to provide details on upcoming work travel, and we both think they’ll start nixing work travel to certain countries (besides China) very soon. With so many people to manage (and many of them working all over the globe), I think we’ll see universities become very cautious, as to avoid become a hub for transmission. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Japan include universities soon, too, given that they have the summer games coming up and they want to avoid any fears of an outbreak in their country. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - RiceLad15 - 02-28-2020 07:30 AM From Feb 2018: Quote: The former chief of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the decision to cut 80% of its epidemic prevention activities overseas could pose a grave danger to the United States because it "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world." https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/03/health/cdc-slashes-global-epidemic-programs-outrage/index.html RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 08:27 AM (02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. EDIT: Just caught the fact that this article is from two years ago. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-28-2020 09:15 AM (02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona. And, like Frizzy, I find self-serving statements to be very uncompellng. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 09:26 AM (02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. This article mentions only the ten remaining: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Jordan, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Guatemala. Actually, as mentioned in a different article cited earlier in this thread, China was one of the 39 countries that was cut. However, even RiceLad agreed that the CDC's presence in China would not have made a difference wrt to coronavirus because of China's attitude toward outside assistance. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - RiceLad15 - 02-28-2020 09:33 AM (02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. China was included. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/ RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - OptimisticOwl - 02-28-2020 09:40 AM (02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-28-2020 09:44 AM (02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:China was included.(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Do we know what they were actually doing? I mean, there is this rush to day, "OMG, we're cutting funding, we're all going to be destroyed." But I'm not sure what it actually means. It's kind of like the Benghazi argument that republicans cut funding for embassy security, so we got an ambassador killed. Number one, if funding were cut, it seems logical that we'd cut in low-threat places, of which Libya was hardly one. Number two, what was needed in Benghazi was not a security force but a military presence close enough to do some good, like what we would do back in my days--an amphibious with a company of Marines standing by offshore. I know wy we don't have that today, the Navy doesn't ave the ships to do it. So why was something as stupid as Benghazi ever tried in the first place? RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 09:53 AM (02-28-2020 09:44 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(02-28-2020 09:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:(02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:China was included.(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona.(02-28-2020 07:30 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: From Feb 2018:The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Not from either the WaPo or CNN articles, we don't. That's the problem with what passes for journalism these days. Maybe the CDC was doing ground-level research in China, and in expanding its knowledge database was doing a lot of good and getting bang for the taxpayers' buck. Or maybe not. The only argument the articles make is that if Trump cut the funding, then the cuts must have been bad. That's not even logical. But, then again, intelligent and educated people, who ought to know better than be taken in by that kind of argument, fall for it. So, for purposes of influencing public opinion, that kind of "journalism" seems to work. No one should be better at critical and independent thinking than a graduate of an elite university, and that even the recent Rice graduates lack that skill is positively horrifying, IMO. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Hambone10 - 02-28-2020 09:58 AM (02-27-2020 05:20 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: You forgot the 'such as'. Typical though for you to pick and choose the way you want to edit. Good lord Forgive me for brevity. My comment, unlike yours... was not an attack on you, but talking about sources and how 'what they choose to focus on' can influence perceptions. Contrary to your belief, adding the words 'such as' doesn't in any way remotely change anything. Since you did so rudely bring it up though, I'll play... The single item your source mentioned was 37 million out of 1.25byn.... about 3% of the total. The one mine mentioned was 535 million... about 43% of the total. Minor difference in relative dollars. The Hill (which I admitted was a source I wasn't familiar with, but despite its clear left slant in terms of ownership and number of columnists seems like it's making a real effort to be unbiased) chose what clearly seems to be the largest single source of funds... and YOUR source seemingly chose the one that sounds the most 'negative'. I'd also note that LIHEAP's annual appropriation is over $3byn, so $37mm is probably less than 1%. Yeah... NO WAY we haven't missed an estimate by 1% and thus there may be a surplus there... I don't know what the annual appropriation for Ebola is, but the EMERGENCY ask in 2014 was only about $6byn. Seems to me there must have been a SIGNIFICANT surplus there as well. It wasn't a comment about you.... until you decided to make it one. It's literally laughable that I'd have to add the words 'such as' when we're talking about $1.25byn in funding and the source is only mentioning where 37 million came from. If anyone reading this didn't assume that this was merely one example of a source (thus needing the words, 'such as') then they're morons. I assume people on this forum aren't morons. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - mrbig - 02-28-2020 10:52 AM (02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. (02-28-2020 09:15 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: It would also be instructive to know what were the 39 countries where it was cut and what where the 10 that were kept. Unless China was one of the 39 cut (and I doubt very seriously that it was, because I doubt that we were ever in there in the first place) it is difficult to imagine any correlation, let alone causation, relating to Corona. I quoted the same part of the same CNN article in the 5th post in this thread. I also quoted the same Washington Post article noting that China was one of the countries on the cut list. I also noted the dates in both articles (February 2018) to point out that this wasn't some retrospective self-serving statement by former Obama officials, but rather a warning that detection and prevention efforts were being undermined by the budget cuts. (02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE. This is your criticism? Mid-pandemic for a program that was started in response to the ebola outbreak and where the country of origin for the pandemic was one of the countries where funding was cut? I don't get it. Interested in ruowls' thoughts on the CDC funding cuts back in February 2018. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 10:59 AM (02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Present one shred of evidence that the CDC was doing anything in China that would have made any difference regarding coronavirus. Otherwise your argument is non-sequitur. ETA: "Pandemic"? What pandemic? Your word for it. It hasn't been declared such. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-28-2020 11:11 AM (02-28-2020 09:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Oh, dear, he cut a bloated bureaucracy. No wonder the Democrats hate him. Their motto is No government worker left behind, except ICE. As Ronald Reagan note, "The closest thing on earth to eternal life is a government bureaucracy." I'd really be interested in knowing how many people were doing actual work in the field and how many were shuffling papers at some administrative location. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-28-2020 11:21 AM (02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. I don't see any indication that any detection and prevention efforts were being undermined, short of what truly was a self-serving statement. But here's the part that I wonder about. Whenever budget cuts come down, bureaucrats don't like that. So they decide to apply the cuts to the places that will do the most harm, and when that harm comes they get their money back. Here's how I think it probably came down. The department got told that they were going to have to absorb some cuts. Did they cut any bureaucrats driving desks around DC and doing nothing productive? No. Let's absorb the cuts in the field. And we will make major cuts in a program that has the potential for disaster. And we'll pray that that disaster happens, and when it does we'll get funding out the wazoo. Then our job will be to make sure that we hold on to as much of that funding as we can. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - RiceLad15 - 02-28-2020 11:23 AM (02-28-2020 10:59 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Correct - no pandemic declaration yet. WHO has indicated that the virus has a potential to become a pandemic. And it isn't a non-sequitur to comment that the reduction in funding of EPIDEMIC PREVENTION of all things, in the country where this virus originated could have been a net negative. I'm not sure what their exact activities were, but I'm guessing they dealt with preventing epidemics to attempt to keep them from become pandemics. But I guess the CDC could have completed misrepresented what their action groups did... I think it's a perfectly valid argument to wonder what sort of impact the funding would have had, and if it would have been enough to slow or stop the epidemic. But to say it's a non-sequitur is a stretch. RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 11:27 AM (02-28-2020 11:23 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:(02-28-2020 10:59 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:(02-28-2020 10:52 AM)mrbig Wrote:(02-28-2020 08:27 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: The word of an Obama appointee that the expenditures he oversaw and that have since been cut weren't a waste of money, and no corroborating evidence that cancelling the spending has actually had any adverse consequences. This article is basically an editorial presented as news, not that I would expect any better of CNN. Of course it's valid to wonder. That's what I'm doing, as in "I wonder if the budget cuts made any difference whatsoever? Those persons bringing them up in the context of coronavirus seem to be implying that they did, but they offer no evidence at all to that effect, and when pressed on the issue some of them admit that the Chinese government would not have accepted any real assistance." RE: Coronoavirus Virus thread (we're all gonna die!) - Frizzy Owl - 02-28-2020 11:35 AM Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Correlation is not causation. Anecdote is not evidence. Does that bear repeating? Apparently it does. |