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RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - illiniowl - 07-10-2020 03:26 PM
(07-10-2020 10:34 AM)mrbig Wrote:(06-20-2020 03:44 PM)mrbig Wrote:(06-20-2020 10:52 AM)illiniowl Wrote: "Record cases!!" is no longer the canary in the coal mine it once was, and at some point people might reasonably begin to wonder why some choose to keep flogging that statistic to the exclusion of others.
Except that new cases are a leading indicator for future increases in hospitalizations, ventilator usage, and deaths. You comment will look as stupid to you in 1-2 weeks as it looks to many of us today.
Unfortunately, illiniowl was wrong. In fairness, it took 2-3 weeks instead of 1-2 weeks as I predicted. Also in fairness, mortality rate is obviously down from where it was earlier in the outbreak since doctors are getting better at treating patients. Still, yesterday California, Florida, and Texas all reported their highest daily death tolls from Covid-19. And with cases continuing to rise in all 3 states (and many others), the death tolls will keep going up for at least 1-2 weeks after this spike in cases levels off. I think we'll be back to seeing 1000 deaths a day by the end of next week.
Or in other words, I was right. Deaths are not at a level that would justify public-policy responses turning back the clock to March 2020 -- responses that despite no evidence of correlative effect with outcomes for the areas covered by them nevertheless clearly have political, psychological, and frankly pseudoreligious appeal to liberals and/or others with suspect judgment, and which because of their unjustifiable and economically disastrous side effects, I am keen not to see reimposed.
That's the big picture that interests me -- what do we do in terms of public policy. Do you have some sort of point behind your waving around daily counts other than the tautology that "rising" cases will at some point yield "rising" deaths?
The data fluctuate. Maybe in the absence of sports you have a need for something like a play-by-play substitute that you find in the daily data, but frankly that level of analysis seems boring to me. Take it up with someone else.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - ruowls - 07-10-2020 04:41 PM
(07-09-2020 06:42 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Some posters here still have school age children. I am wondering if those posters (or any others) support the reopening of schools, or oppose it.
I have a to be junior, sophomore and 8th grader.
PGHS faculty has proposed a hybrid system where the high school gets splint into 2 cohorts that alternate weeks at school and online. Each cohort gets further split in half for each week they are physically at school with 1/2 of the cohort going T/Th and the other 1/2 going W/F. Monday the cohort that is "physically" present that week does online only. So, a student will be at school 4 days out of the month and online the rest of the days.
The good news is that my son got the 2020 football schedule. The bad news is that the school hasn't officially hired a new football coach (or volleyball coach) as the previous one resigned and they have yet to talk with the new AD that is supposed to be the AD this upcoming year (he has been on staff for years and lives next door to me).
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 07-10-2020 05:01 PM
(07-10-2020 04:41 PM)ruowls Wrote: The bad news is that the school hasn't officially hired a new football coach (or volleyball coach) as the previous one resigned and they have yet to talk with the new AD that is supposed to be the AD this upcoming year (he has been on staff for years and lives next door to me).
I see an opportunity if they want a really creative and innovative offense.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 07-10-2020 05:49 PM
(07-10-2020 02:31 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: There are a number of factors that go into comparing diseases.... Among them are the ease of transmission, the severity of the disease and the population it targets.
H1N1 infected 60mm people.... and we have just over 3mm so far for COVID.... so it seems that it this disease is less easily transmitted. I don't know that there is a clinical definition for 'ease of transmission'.... i.e. how easily something transmits in a normal setting.... instead we seem to measure it based on results... i.e. covid is 20 times less easily transmitted than swine.
I highly doubt this is accurate, as there weren't really any significant shutdowns with H1N1 (other than a couple schools if memory serves), masks were not pushed like they are for Covid-19, and social distancing wasn't pushed. In every recent articles I looked at, the R0 for Covid-19 is higher than the R0 for H1N1
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - ruowls - 07-10-2020 06:02 PM
(07-10-2020 05:01 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:(07-10-2020 04:41 PM)ruowls Wrote: The bad news is that the school hasn't officially hired a new football coach (or volleyball coach) as the previous one resigned and they have yet to talk with the new AD that is supposed to be the AD this upcoming year (he has been on staff for years and lives next door to me).
I see an opportunity if they want a really creative and innovative offense.
They don't. The guy who has been acting as the HC was the OC the past few years. He was the head Varsity baseball coach about 10 years ago and switched to head JV baseball and football OC. He loves upper classmen and last year switched to the Fly and believes misdirection cures all ills (this is a COVID thread). He never grasped the concept that defenses adjust to motion and once drew up a rushing play with 2 unblocked defenders in the hole. They ran it in practice and it lost 4 yards each time and he couldn't understand why the play didn't work and just scrapped it. The fly motion should have opened it right up....right.
My son also started throwing to a group of kids that a "football" trainer runs. The coach was an NFL receiver and played at Nevada. He owns a business that "trains" football players to make them better and get recognized. He texts my son from time to time when he needs a good QB to throw to some of his clients. I watched for the session for a while. It is amazing what he focused on and what he did. He is really in to technique and drills. He had one drill where he put about a 3 foot hoop about 12 yards down the field and had the receivers run around the hoop and then come back to the QB along the hoop. He had a defender break on the receiver and they both run to the inner part of the hoop. He was the defender on one play and cut off the receiver on the play. He told him he has to stay on the hoop to win the battle and that the receiver needed to be really precise because he cheated to the inside. Of course, I go that is a bunch of garbage when my son got home. When the coach cheated to the inside, he shortened the distance for him to get to the catch point and lengthened the receiver's distance. In essence, the receiver was running the hypotenuse. As a receiver, all the technique of running the hoop wouldn't have helped correct an inherent disadvantage. Like I have been saying, all the receiver had to do was see the defender cheating to the inside and reversed the arc along the hoop from outside to inside. Change the release stem to the inside of the hoop and shield off the defender and catch the ball and increase his distance. It really is pretty easy but the steadfast adherence to the conventional teachings is maddening. Oh well, it is what it is. Even colleges do this, including Owls.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 07-10-2020 08:48 PM
(07-10-2020 03:26 PM)illiniowl Wrote: Or in other words, I was right. Deaths are not at a level that would justify public-policy responses turning back the clock to March 2020 --
Problem with exponential growth is that the best thing to do is take action early before you hit the “oh sh!t” point. Even more true for something that has a 1-2 week incubation before it gets really bad. Even more true when a decent number of the deaths are the result of the system getting overwhelmed. You were not right and are not right, though sadly it will apparently take well over 150,000 American deaths before you start to see it.
(07-10-2020 03:26 PM)illiniowl Wrote: ...responses that despite no evidence of correlative effect with outcomes for the areas covered by them
The curves of both daily infections and daily deaths in the places with the bad early outbreaks look Like pretty convincing evidence to me. And I do not think anywhere that had stay at home orders had any outbreaks while the stay at home order was in affect. I would be interested if you have evidence to the contrary.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Fort Bend Owl - 07-11-2020 06:12 AM
(07-10-2020 02:31 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: There are a number of factors that go into comparing diseases.... Among them are the ease of transmission, the severity of the disease and the population it targets.
H1N1 infected 60mm people.... and we have just over 3mm so far for COVID.... so it seems that it this disease is less easily transmitted. I don't know that there is a clinical definition for 'ease of transmission'.... i.e. how easily something transmits in a normal setting.... instead we seem to measure it based on results... i.e. covid is 20 times less easily transmitted than swine.
The rest of your post I deleted because I agreed with you. But I've never been comfortable with that 60 million H1N1 case total just because I personally knew no one who had it and that's almost 1/5 of our population. I don't recall ever coming down with any flu in my adult lifetime - not one single year.
H1N1 officially according to the CDC had 60 million cases in the U.S., 274K hospitalizations and 12.5 deaths. As of today, Covid 19 has 3.3 million cases, 136K deaths and hospitalizations (according to covid tracker site) have averaged between 30-60K a week for 3 1/2 months in the U.S. Certainly some of those people are carryover folks, but if we use 30K as an average, that's at least 400K hospitalizations.
Anyway, my point is that I'm pretty sure the 60 million number were not official tests but just a CDC estimate. I personally feel like I've been exposed to Covid 19 constantly since it was first detected in the U.S., and thankfully outside of an occasional minor headache, I've had zero symptoms and have kept working. Hopefully that continues - I credit having 0 negative blood, and keeping myself in relatively healthy shape and eating the right foods I guess. And like you, I have worn masks since the beginning and I'm pretty much made for social distancing and have been introverted in that sense my whole life.
I know I'm not alone in that belief - a lot of co-workers feel the same way about having a minor case of Covid 19. So I just don't buy that 3.3 million number. I suspect the actual number is much, much higher, and perhaps already is past that 60 million number cited for H1N1.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 07-11-2020 07:56 AM
As a libertarian, I really don't understand the aversion to masks. Masks aren't perfect--nothing is--but even the most basic of masks reduces the odds of getting the disease, and that's pretty useful. I would have preferred an earlier reopening, with the proviso that you can reopen as long as you require masks--no masks, no reopen. I think that posits is as a choice.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 07-11-2020 08:44 AM
(07-11-2020 07:56 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: As a libertarian, I really don't understand the aversion to masks. Masks aren't perfect--nothing is--but even the most basic of masks reduces the odds of getting the disease, and that's pretty useful. I would have preferred an earlier reopening, with the proviso that you can reopen as long as you require masks--no masks, no reopen. I think that posits is as a choice.
I started out wearing my mask as a courtesy to others. I now wear it as a safety for myself. But my lifestyle has not been seriously impacted by the virus or the preventative measures.
My sister (67) had two step-granddaughters test positive. She is being tested today, although their contact With the kids (17 and 18) has been minimal lately.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - greyowl72 - 07-11-2020 10:17 AM
(07-10-2020 08:48 PM)mrbig Wrote:Good points, Big.(07-10-2020 03:26 PM)illiniowl Wrote: Or in other words, I was right. Deaths are not at a level that would justify public-policy responses turning back the clock to March 2020 --
Problem with exponential growth is that the best thing to do is take action early before you hit the “oh sh!t” point. Even more true for something that has a 1-2 week incubation before it gets really bad. Even more true when a decent number of the deaths are the result of the system getting overwhelmed. You were not right and are not right, though sadly it will apparently take well over 150,000 American deaths before you start to see it.
(07-10-2020 03:26 PM)illiniowl Wrote: ...responses that despite no evidence of correlative effect with outcomes for the areas covered by them
The curves of both daily infections and daily deaths in the places with the bad early outbreaks look Like pretty convincing evidence to me. And I do not think anywhere that had stay at home orders had any outbreaks while the stay at home order was in affect. I would be interested if you have evidence to the contrary.
I hate to sound like a broken record, but...
The mortality rate of COVID-19 is important but really is not what is (or should be) driving public health debate and policy. What’s important is hospitalization rates, including ICU, and resource utilization. Even if COVID-19 had a 0.1% mortality, it would still be of huge significance because the hospitalization rate hovers around 20% and of the hospitalized patients the ICU rate is 20%. We simply don’t have the resources to sustain those numbers unless we practice some significant public health recommendations...masks, social distancing etc and regionally directed control of crowd sizes, etc.
Locally, after our initial lockdown, our hospitals seized an opportunity to stockpile PPE’s, meds, ventilators..to get ready for the expected “2nd wave”. That happened all over the country. Now, with the recent uptick in number of cases, we are seeing increased hospitalization and ICU usage. The stockpiling worked, but now even the stockpiling plan is being overwhelmed with demand for testing, remdesivir, steroids, ICU beds, more ventilators, etc. The next challenge that everybody is facing is staffing. More ICU and OR and ER nurses, techs and orderlies are testing positive. They in turn are being quarantined and hospitalized. All this in the face of declining (for now) mortality rate.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - At Ease - 07-11-2020 11:09 AM
(07-10-2020 03:26 PM)illiniowl Wrote: Deaths are not at a level that would justify public-policy responses turning back the clock to March 2020 -- responses that despite no evidence of correlative effect with outcomes for the areas covered by them nevertheless clearly have political, psychological, and frankly pseudoreligious appeal to liberals and/or others with suspect judgment, and which because of their unjustifiable and economically disastrous side effects, I am keen not to see reimposed.
Can you clarify the "correlative effect with outcomes"? Are you stating there is no evidence that shutdowns reduce the spread of the virus or the # of deaths associated with it?
Do you have a sense for how much of the economically disastrous impacts we have been dealing with are due to government-mandated shutdown measures vs. the independent decisions of individuals and businesses to consume or work less out of safety concerns?
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 07-11-2020 11:30 AM
It seems to me that what is happening is that we have expanded testing to the point that we are now testing lots of people who are asymptomatic and therefore would not have been tested initially, and what we are finding is a lot of people who have been exposed but in whom the virus has little or no effect. Therefore the number of infected is rising but the rate of death is falling.
If we had simply focused on keeping the most vulnerable isolated, and requiring masks (and possibly social distancing), we could probably have kept the economy going at something pretty close to full speed, reduced the number of deaths, and avoided the huge economic penalty. The largest numbers of deaths are still in those places where idiotic governors had CV-19 patients moved to nursing homes and other facilities where the most vulnerable were congregated. But that's not what the "experts" were advocated, so we didn't do that. So much for the "experts."
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - mrbig - 07-11-2020 03:58 PM
(07-11-2020 11:30 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: It seems to me that what is happening is that we have expanded testing to the point that we are now testing lots of people who are asymptomatic and therefore would not have been tested initially, and what we are finding is a lot of people who have been exposed but in whom the virus has little or no effect. Therefore the number of infected is rising but the rate of death is falling.
If we had simply focused on keeping the most vulnerable isolated, and requiring masks (and possibly social distancing), we could probably have kept the economy going at something pretty close to full speed, reduced the number of deaths, and avoided the huge economic penalty. The largest numbers of deaths are still in those places where idiotic governors had CV-19 patients moved to nursing homes and other facilities where the most vulnerable were congregated. But that's not what the "experts" were advocated, so we didn't do that. So much for the "experts."
I suspect the experts will be correct a lot more frequently than you or me and just because an expert is occasionally incorrect early in an outbreak doesn’t mean people should start ignoring them.
But what do I know, I’m not an expert!
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Fort Bend Owl - 07-11-2020 04:21 PM
We're now at 5 employees (out of 100 perhaps) who have tested positive. I'm pretty sure our first case was asymptomatic (and is the only one of the 5 back at work). The last 4 all had symptoms, but none of them were what I would label as significant (high fever, bad cough). They all didn't feel good and got tested. I suspect a lot of the new cases are in that category, or perhaps were tested because they were exposed to someone who had it (a family member perhaps).
Outside of peace of mind, I'm not really sure if there is any value in anyone being tested if they're asymptomatic. Certainly, some companies (or colleges now) are requiring that of their employees/students before they come back to work/school, so that's a different deal. But if it's not required, a positive test will end up costing someone a lot of money (in terms of missing work, and future tests), and chances are if they have no or virtually no symptoms, they are just going to be self-quaranting anyway. But I get that you also don't want to encourage people to work or go to a crowded place if they are sick.
What I would like to know is what percentage of deaths in Harris County (and Dallas County for that matter, or Bexar, Travis, etc) are county residents to begin with. I feel like some of the worst hit patients in outlying areas are being sent to the bigger hospitals in Houston, Dallas just because the rural hospitals aren't set up as well to take care of them. But I have no proof of that - just a theory.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Fort Bend Owl - 07-11-2020 04:59 PM
BTW as contagious as this new strain of covid 19 is in Texas, I kind of wish we could find a way to classify two different varieties -- the mild, less dangerous one and the more serious one. There's probably no way to do so, but I'm telling you a lot of students are quickly going to become positive once schools open, and that may be the only way to keep them open with some in-person instruction.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - OptimisticOwl - 07-11-2020 05:01 PM
(07-11-2020 04:21 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: We're now at 5 employees (out of 100 perhaps) who have tested positive. I'm pretty sure our first case was asymptomatic (and is the only one of the 5 back at work). The last 4 all had symptoms, but none of them were what I would label as significant (high fever, bad cough). They all didn't feel good and got tested. I suspect a lot of the new cases are in that category, or perhaps were tested because they were exposed to someone who had it (a family member perhaps).
Outside of peace of mind, I'm not really sure if there is any value in anyone being tested if they're asymptomatic. Certainly, some companies (or colleges now) are requiring that of their employees/students before they come back to work/school, so that's a different deal. But if it's not required, a positive test will end up costing someone a lot of money (in terms of missing work, and future tests), and chances are if they have no or virtually no symptoms, they are just going to be self-quaranting anyway. But I get that you also don't want to encourage people to work or go to a crowded place if they are sick.
What I would like to know is what percentage of deaths in Harris County (and Dallas County for that matter, or Bexar, Travis, etc) are county residents to begin with. I feel like some of the worst hit patients in outlying areas are being sent to the bigger hospitals in Houston, Dallas just because the rural hospitals aren't set up as well to take care of them. But I have no proof of that - just a theory.
5%.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 07-11-2020 07:27 PM
(07-11-2020 04:59 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: BTW as contagious as this new strain of covid 19 is in Texas, I kind of wish we could find a way to classify two different varieties -- the mild, less dangerous one and the more serious one. There's probably no way to do so, but I'm telling you a lot of students are quickly going to become positive once schools open, and that may be the only way to keep them open with some in-person instruction.
I think there have always been two varieties. It's just that in the early days, we tested only those who were symptomatic (ie, the more serious ones), whereas now we are picking up a lot of the less serious variety. So number infected is going up, but deaths are going down.
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - At Ease - 07-12-2020 12:47 AM
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - westsidewolf1989 - 07-12-2020 12:45 PM
"Experts" are now saying people should turn off their air conditioners after the WHO's latest guidance on airborne coronavirus spread. That should help prevent many people from dying of coronavirus and instead cause them to die of heat exhaustion.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/turn-air-conditioning-experts-say-shifts-stance-airborne-coronavirus/
Good piece from the WSJ
"This is an American failure," said Joseph Kanter, regional medical director for the Greater New Orleans area. "We're five months into this epidemic and we can't figure it out"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-failure-new-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-strains-u-s-testing-capacity-11594566000
RE: Coronoavirus Covid-19 thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 07-12-2020 05:25 PM
Our "experts" have screwed the pooch on this mightily. Why? Because they are bureaucrats, not emergency responders. The much-ballyhooed "pandemic response roadmap" was all about lining up all the bureaucratic ducks in a row. It had next to nothing about actual response. I've been to a few emergency response rodeos. That isn'r what you need.