+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: Lounge (/forum-564.html)
+---- Forum: The Kyra Memorial Spin Room (/forum-540.html)
+---- Thread: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown (/thread-893077.html)
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - stinkfist - 04-01-2020 06:12 AM
(03-31-2020 12:11 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:
pretty much like being scoped w/o going down the larynx/trachea....while that procedure may be unpleasant, it's painless....
I get scoped annually after having polyp surgery 25 years ago......it would blow your mind how much packing they pull out of both passages after that guy....you could tie 'em together and reach mid-field from the end zone....
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - JRsec - 04-01-2020 09:18 AM
(04-01-2020 06:12 AM)stinkfist Wrote:(03-31-2020 12:11 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:
pretty much like being scoped w/o going down the larynx/trachea....while that procedure may be unpleasant, it's painless....
I get scoped annually after having polyp surgery 25 years ago......it would blow your mind how much packing they pull out of both passages after that guy....you could tie 'em together and reach mid-field from the end zone....
And they wonder where kids got the saying up your nose with a rubber hose!. Still that sounds better than in your sinus with swab on pinus.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - BearcatMan - 04-01-2020 09:22 AM
(04-01-2020 06:12 AM)stinkfist Wrote:(03-31-2020 12:11 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:
pretty much like being scoped w/o going down the larynx/trachea....while that procedure may be unpleasant, it's painless....
I get scoped annually after having polyp surgery 25 years ago......it would blow your mind how much packing they pull out of both passages after that guy....you could tie 'em together and reach mid-field from the end zone....
Yep, I actually had to get tested a week ago due to the nature of the work that I do and the amount of individuals that I came into contact with from other countries (I'm a member of faculty in a College of Engineering in Ohio...so yeah, lots of students coming from many areas of the country and world). It didn't hurt, mostly just felt like you needed to sneeze like crazy but couldn't actually make it happen for the duration of the swab. I came up clear and am sticking around my house for the foreseeable future to ensure I'm still clear when everything is said and done.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Hambone10 - 04-01-2020 09:41 AM
Note how when you look at the numbers for H1N1 in 2009 on Wiki (or really anywhere else) you get
60mm cases
275,000 Hospitalized
12,473 deaths
The first two are estimates after the fact. The last is a fact based on death certificates/coding.
Don't trust the denominator (cases) because nobody gets this up front. Nowhere in the world is testing people prophylactically.... meaning everywhere we only test those with reasons for suspicion... even if the test is available... because it wastes resources including manpower, ppe AND tests. Even if we had unlimited testing, time and PPE, it is meaningless to test everyone other than for academic purposes.
Worry about the numerator (deaths)
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - ECUGrad07 - 04-01-2020 10:18 AM
Pretty crazy... "Decide for yourself." (Not sure how to embed a tweet so here's the link and a photo from it)
https://twitter.com/Inevitable_ET/status/1244431826669764609
![[Image: sxrpGp1.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/sxrpGp1.jpg)
Basically... the guy is at one of the "overrun hospitals" in NYC. Not a soul in the COVID-19 line, and the ER looks dead.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Eagleaidaholic - 04-01-2020 10:20 AM
According to the CDC the total number of deaths from pneumonia and flu so far THIS YEAR is 43,945. According to the death stats from the most recent week we are currently in a flu epidemic as 7.4% of all deaths in America are due to flu. Who knew?
Another thing that struck me is odd is how the number of deaths from pneumonia has steadily DECLINED since the first case of Covid was found in the US (Jan.20th or beginning of week 4 on the chart. Week 4 had a total of 3673 Pneumonia deaths and the most recent week had 2431 Pneumonia deaths. There has been a steady decline in Pneumonia deaths since the CoVid-19 death count began.
The graph showing weekly deaths is an .xls spreadsheet and I don't know how to post the graph, but I do have the link below. There is a graph under SURVEILLANCE where I have the quote. I have the link below. Just have to go down to the bottom to get to this year.
Weekly pneumonia and flu deaths
The file is the spreadsheet.
Quote:Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 7.4% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 7, 2020 (week 11) were due to P&I. This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 11.My question is how long have people been dying from Pneumonia that actually had CoVid-19? Because now that people are dying from this "new" virus the number of "Pneumonia" deaths has gone down dramatically.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Owl 69/70/75 - 04-01-2020 10:54 AM
(04-01-2020 10:18 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote: Pretty crazy... "Decide for yourself." (Not sure how to embed a tweet so here's the link and a photo from it)
https://twitter.com/Inevitable_ET/status/1244431826669764609
Basically... the guy is at one of the "overrun hospitals" in NYC. Not a soul in the COVID-19 line, and the ER looks dead.
Like any other similar situation, there are peaks and valleys.
That's one reason why there is a huge difference between planning things on paper and actually doing them on the ground. The "pandemic response team" might have had a good plan on paper, but that doesn't translate into implementing it on the ground. It's why you need to have people designated in advance, and properly equipped and trained. Realistic training identifies the gaps and overloads, and the plan can then be adjusted.
On paper you can say, "well we can test or treat an average of X people per hour/day/week per hospital." But if 10X show up and one place, and 0 show up at the other nine, that doesn't work.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Hambone10 - 04-01-2020 11:00 AM
(04-01-2020 10:54 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: That's one reason why there is a huge difference between planning things on paper and actually doing them on the ground. The "pandemic response team" might have had a good plan on paper, but that doesn't translate into implementing it on the ground. It's why you need to have people designated in advance, and properly equipped and trained. Realistic training identifies the gaps and overloads, and the plan can then be adjusted.
On paper you can say, "well we can test or treat an average of X people per hour/day/week per hospital." But if 10X show up and one place, and 0 show up at the other nine, that doesn't work.
What I dealt with every day.... plus staff all wanting to work 'the other nine' and threatening to call out or quit on 'that day'.
That said, it is CLEAR that many people who would otherwise seek care are now choosing not to. For some, this is a problem... but for many others, the problem was them seeking (unnecessary) care, or at least care in an unnecessary setting.
LOTS of good can come from this, far more beneficial than all of the recent discussion about 'changing health care' if people will simply use reason and not be 'sold' a bill of goods.
Best way to increase access, reduce costs, reduce the cost of insurance, improve quality and outcomes etc etc etc is to reduce unnecessary demand.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Owl 69/70/75 - 04-01-2020 11:07 AM
(04-01-2020 11:00 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:(04-01-2020 10:54 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: That's one reason why there is a huge difference between planning things on paper and actually doing them on the ground. The "pandemic response team" might have had a good plan on paper, but that doesn't translate into implementing it on the ground. It's why you need to have people designated in advance, and properly equipped and trained. Realistic training identifies the gaps and overloads, and the plan can then be adjusted.What I dealt with every day.... plus staff all wanting to work 'the other nine' and threatening to call out or quit on 'that day'.
On paper you can say, "well we can test or treat an average of X people per hour/day/week per hospital." But if 10X show up and one place, and 0 show up at the other nine, that doesn't work.
My friend, all I can say is that I am eternally grateful that you did that job so I didn't have to.
Quote:That said, it is CLEAR that many people who would otherwise seek care are now choosing not to. For some, this is a problem... but for many others, the problem was them seeking (unnecessary) care, or at least care in an unnecessary setting.
LOTS of good can come from this, far more beneficial than all of the recent discussion about 'changing health care' if people will simply use reason and not be 'sold' a bill of goods.
Best way to increase access, reduce costs, reduce the cost of insurance, improve quality and outcomes etc etc etc is to reduce unnecessary demand.
Yep.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - TigersOhMy - 04-01-2020 11:10 AM
(04-01-2020 11:00 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:(04-01-2020 10:54 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: That's one reason why there is a huge difference between planning things on paper and actually doing them on the ground. The "pandemic response team" might have had a good plan on paper, but that doesn't translate into implementing it on the ground. It's why you need to have people designated in advance, and properly equipped and trained. Realistic training identifies the gaps and overloads, and the plan can then be adjusted.That said, it is CLEAR that many people who would otherwise seek care are now choosing not to. For some, this is a problem... but for many others, the problem was them seeking (unnecessary) care, or at least care in an unnecessary setting.
On paper you can say, "well we can test or treat an average of X people per hour/day/week per hospital." But if 10X show up and one place, and 0 show up at the other nine, that doesn't work.
yes, I have several friends that work in hospitals that I have talked to this week and they are saying OUTSIDE OF CoVid related cases, the ER is waaaaaaay deader right now because those who treat it like a doctor's clinic and not an emergency room are staying home in fear
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - SuperFlyBCat - 04-01-2020 11:56 AM
Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Hambone10 - 04-01-2020 12:25 PM
(04-01-2020 11:56 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote: Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf
This is SOP... they just needed a code to make it electronic... but I know the CDC was having all suspected cases 'flagged' so they would be captured manually. Again, that's SOP. Did the same with Ebola and H1N1. If you have a suspected case, you call the CDC and flag the record.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - CrimsonPhantom - 04-01-2020 12:26 PM
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - MileHighBronco - 04-01-2020 12:37 PM
Here is an interesting and potentially useful site that Projects Hospital Resource Use Based on COVID-19 Deaths that assumes continued social distancing until the end of May 2020.
You can search by State and it will tell you when will the peak usage of hospital resources should occur and when will the projected PEAK number of deaths occur by date.
Remember that it is only a model.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Redwingtom - 04-01-2020 12:41 PM
Maybe I'm not remembering this correctly, but didn't the CDC or other experts say that you should not just show up at the ER if you think you have the virus, but rather call ahead so they can be prepared to treat you when you arrive?
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - Hambone10 - 04-01-2020 01:17 PM
(04-01-2020 12:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: Maybe I'm not remembering this correctly, but didn't the CDC or other experts say that you should not just show up at the ER if you think you have the virus, but rather call ahead so they can be prepared to treat you when you arrive?
I don't know if the CDC did, but I suspect they did. I posted on here maybe a month ago that most local health authorities were telling people to call not go to, their PCP, not even the ER if they thought they had the virus. There is a protocol and if you meet certain requirements, they will send you to a testing center (or do the test) and tell you to isolate/quarantine... only if you're having serious symptoms will they send you to the ER... If you just show up at the ER, most places will now stop you at a tent out front for screening questions.
You should only go to the ER if you need immediate interventionary steps to keep you from dying. People made a big deal out of drive through testing centers, implying that anyone could just drive up and get a test. Was never the case.
That's perhaps a minor over-simplification, but not by much. We as Americans go to the ER for everything... and then they get clogged up and people start going to urgent care for suspected strokes because the wait at the ER is too long.
SO we pay $5,000 for 100 cases of the sniffles that would have cost $150 at the PCP or Urgent Care... and then we pay $150 at the urgent care plus $2,000 for EMS transfer... PLUS now the cost of the suspected stroke.
and we wonder why healthcare is expensive and think that the Insurance company making $250 on that $5,000 ER bill when it SHOULD have been $12 on that $150 UC bill to finance your care and ensure quality and competitiveness is the problem??
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - vandiver49 - 04-01-2020 01:22 PM
(04-01-2020 12:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: Maybe I'm not remembering this correctly, but didn't the CDC or other experts say that you should not just show up at the ER if you think you have the virus, but rather call ahead so they can be prepared to treat you when you arrive?
You're correct. There are Ad Council commercials that are stating that if you have the symptoms that you should call your doctor before showing.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - SuperFlyBCat - 04-01-2020 01:27 PM
(04-01-2020 12:37 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote: Here is an interesting and potentially useful site that Projects Hospital Resource Use Based on COVID-19 Deaths that assumes continued social distancing until the end of May 2020.
You can search by State and it will tell you when will the peak usage of hospital resources should occur and when will the projected PEAK number of deaths occur by date.
Remember that it is only a model.
That is an excellent resource. Ohio is looking, peak in 4/18 and no bed shortages. And total deaths by August looks like a bad flu season.
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - MileHighBronco - 04-01-2020 01:43 PM
Apologies if somebody has posted this. For those with no symptoms of the infection:
Quote:multiple doctors in New Jersey have gathered evidence to support the claim of a loss of smell and taste is an early warning sign of COVID-19 infection.
Here's the important early warning sign of coronavirus COVID-19
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown - JRsec - 04-01-2020 04:20 PM
FOX News on Lou Dobbs is reporting this afternoon that the intelligence community is suspicious that the virus was released from a Chinese Weapons facility.
I gave you guys my initial suspicions and held back when so many honks around here towed the pangolin B.S. line as the reason. The W.H.O. provided cover for China's misdeeds straight down the line.
When there are no dead Chinese leaders from the virus that has killed leadership and physicians in all other countries it raises suspicions that they already had a treatment.
When China locked down their cities immediately, a measure they did not take for SARS or any previous outbreak of influenza, that should have immediately raised suspicions.
When Lieber ( a Harvard professor) was arrested, a man with intimate knowledge about our anti viral capabilities due to his double service on the N.I.H. and with the D.O.D., and when two Chinese communists, one a party member who lied about her student status, smuggled biological material out of our country, and the other one was caught in the act to take material to the facility in Wuhan, and when we are hit with a novel virus that isn't constructed like, or acts like, any previous virus it should raise suspicions. And when all of our "Federally Funded" facilities issue initial claims to the contrary and do so because the Government wants that official line until they make sure of suspicions you need to still ask questions.
It just never surprises me anymore just how damned gullible and stupid some of my fellow Americans are when it comes to the enemies of this nation and to the traitors in our midst who take their money and lobby for their agenda.
Communist China has never, and will never, be a friend an equal trading partner with the U.S. They see us as the adversary and that's all we need know. And yes, our enemies want to kill us, kill our allies, and would love to destroy our economy which gives us the advantages we have over them. I hope when this is through so to will be all trade with China which isn't on our terms.
If indeed this proves to be true that it was leaked, accidentally, or intentionally, from their biological weapons lab in Wuhan, then we need to take the MF gloves off in dealing with the pro China representatives and Senators who are in our midst and investigate with extreme scrutiny those American professors who have spent time in China or have been paid in any way by the People's Republic of China.
Right now this is beginning to look like a big damned I told you so! I do hope I'm wrong, but I have suspected it from the onset because of all of the afore mentioned peculiarities, and because of the country of origin.