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New Zeihan - georgia_tech_swagger - 09-17-2019 01:06 PM
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RE: New Zeihan - stinkfist - 09-17-2019 02:23 PM
made it through 12 mins....that's all I could stomach....
I love how he went straight to the millennials after talking about the boomers retiring...the X'ers have always known they're fk'd....
I also like how he put DJT in the buffoon parade but acknowledged the most important aspect why he's right...
H.W. the best??? (foreign policy).....that mothertrucker's high along with that 'tie'...
that guy's a hoot trying to cram decades of 'macro' into 45 mins....
he made a few good points...they always do...
too long winded and disconnected for my tastes....
RE: New Zeihan - JRsec - 09-17-2019 03:04 PM
1. I told this board 2 years ago that Italy was the lynch pin that would destroy the European Union financially. Most scoffed.
2. The U.S. Foreign Policy personnel are not in viable positions because the corporate backers of the American Political Parties do not hold diplomacy to be the most effective negotiating tool for their objectives. They are great for boundaries and international law, and the kind of trade he describe from 70 years ago, but treaties are now more corporate in nature (NAFTA & NAFTA2) than they are political. So this description is just a nod to the reality that the power of nation states is waning to that of corporate power. And that part is damned frightening since nation states work on behalf of a people, and corporations do not.
3. He's wrong about gold, in the interim. Long term he may well be correct but as currencies collapse there will be value in exchanging metal for more stable currencies.
4. He didn't discuss the obvious risks to his viewpoint. The obvious threat is that as the global power structure is diminished from nation state points of view and is morphed into corporate points of view what happens to the rogue empires with nukes? Will unstable dictatorships lead to nuclear use? It's quite possible.
5. What is happening with Brexit is that the UK is choosing a new coalition over a doomed one. The question is will Germany and France and Northern European countries choose to do the same and join with Wall Street? I think so eventually. The problem will be the gains the Chinese and Russians will make in Southern Europe.
The corporate/political map is going to look very different by the end of this century. The U.S. will need more leverage in South America.
6. The global die off of the offspring of WWII (Global Boomers) is not going to bring financial ruin as Zeihan seems to believe. Remember if currency deflates, and the demand for commodities deflates with the die off, the cost of living goes way down. It's true Millennials may earn much less, but once again the cost of goods and services, particularly with automation, should go way down. The transition will be tough but short and then the demand for labor coupled with a low cost of living could start to reproduce a 60's style economy which means low inflation, low costs, and an opportunity to expand the quality of your life within the means of your livelihood. Not necessarily a bad thing, and it comes with tremendous upside.
The trick will be getting there with annihilating one another.
RE: New Zeihan - JRsec - 09-17-2019 03:07 PM
(09-17-2019 02:23 PM)stinkfist Wrote: made it through 12 mins....that's all I could stomach....
I love how he went straight to the millennials after talking about the boomers retiring...the X'ers have always known they're fk'd....
I also like how he put DJT in the buffoon parade but acknowledged the most important aspect why he's right...
H.W. the best??? (foreign policy).....that mothertrucker's high along with that 'tie'...
that guy's a hoot trying to cram decades of 'macro' into 45 mins....
he made a few good points...they always do...
too long winded and disconnected for my tastes....
Yeah, he lost major cred with me with his kissing of H.W.'s ring. H.W. is a patrician's patrician and has been married to the FED and the MIC practically his whole political life.
He has a sound enough grasp of the macro picture, but the other disturbing part is his love Xi.
RE: New Zeihan - georgia_tech_swagger - 09-17-2019 04:13 PM
(09-17-2019 03:07 PM)JRsec Wrote: Yeah, he lost major cred with me with his kissing of H.W.'s ring. H.W. is a patrician's patrician and has been married to the FED and the MIC practically his whole political life.
He has a sound enough grasp of the macro picture, but the other disturbing part is his love Xi.
H.W. is the last President well groomed by the CFR and well connected to the CFR. Zeihan's take on H.W. seems to come from there, as geopolitical wonks like Zeihan are a fold within the CFR and those who need that kind of analysis (state actors).
RE: New Zeihan - Fo Shizzle - 09-17-2019 08:22 PM
My take on this is that Trump has a man in charge behind the scenes that is an ass kicker on trade....and....Im thrilled at that. I also get the impression that although Peter thinks Trump is a dummy...He thinks he is our Chauncey Gardner and is stumbling in the correct direction on much of his foreign policy stances.
No doubt about it....Peter is a very bright and thoughtful dude that has dredged over charts and demographic trends better than anyone. Is he right? We will see.
RE: New Zeihan - JRsec - 09-17-2019 09:01 PM
(09-17-2019 08:22 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote: My take on this is that Trump has a man in charge behind the scenes that is an ass kicker on trade....and....Im thrilled at that. I also get the impression that although Peter thinks Trump is a dummy...He thinks he is our Chauncey Gardner and is stumbling in the correct direction on much of his foreign policy stances.
No doubt about it....Peter is a very bright and thoughtful dude that has dredged over charts and demographic trends better than anyone. Is he right? We will see.
I have known many, many, eloquent idiots and all of them thought themselves to be far more intellectually astute than those who waxed their tails in both performance and results.
He tips his hand in this video as being one who wants the U.S.A. to continue to buy largess, rather than to demand it, and to do so at the expense of our taxpayers and businesses.
We are now in a corporate world. and in that world concessions and loss leaders are a sign of weakness. The communists see it the same way.