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FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-27-2019 08:02 AM

Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - DavidSt - 04-27-2019 09:59 AM

(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-27-2019 10:49 AM

(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - templefootballfan - 04-27-2019 11:02 AM

Fun ? KC
I like 5 of those picks
Not Old Dom fan, Mia(0) is reduntent, No ILL to weak in BB
ARMY FB would work, still leaves rm for St Lious
Marshall belongs in there, BE would cry about academics
How about VCU adding FB, Richmond has a stadium


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - GoldenWarrior11 - 04-27-2019 11:06 AM

(04-27-2019 10:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.

While this is definitely a hypothetical proposal, the likelihood of such an event is absolutely and definitively zero.

The March Madness contract runs through 2032, thus any "separation" to the basketball-side would not happen for at least another ten years. March Madness, for the networks, is a near-perfect content provider to the national audience - it offers a wealth of different schools and programs, provides many unpredictable upsets and intrigue and are all played in a relatively short time period. College Football, as it attempts to duplicate March Madness with its own College Football Playoff, will simply never be able to replicate or duplicate College Basketball's format on the same stage. In the CFP, realistically, there are only five, maybe six, teams that can conceivably win a national championship in a given year; for college basketball, while that number is not realistically 68 teams, it certainly has a greater number of possibilities and teams that can win a national championship.

Under this far-fetched and unlikely scenario, the networks would be "freezing out" a number of non-FBS programs that have experienced national success such as the Big East programs, Gonzaga, VCU, Wichita State, Loyola, Dayton, Davidson, Wofford, UMBC, among various others over the years; eliminating such a significant number of well-publicized teams would be devastating for ratings/interest of the tournament. As much as "power conferences' would probably like to incorporate a P5-only tournament, such a move would kill college basketball - and they definitely realize that.

Even if such a proposal ever went through far enough, the Big East would absolutely not add football programs just to be included, nor to sacrifice their institutional identity. There would remain a number of non-football conferences, which they would undoubtedly group together with, and form their own coalition. Ultimately, the P5 do not want to play against each other exclusively, since that would mean many at the bottom would soak up all of the losses (and, in turn, lose value in the long-run).

Put simply, college basketball is different structurally than college football.


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-27-2019 11:08 AM

NIU while no tradition has a 10,000 seater BB arena.

Army would have to come all sport to make the 8th FBS spot. I don't think they'd leave their rivals in the Patriot.

Miami might be redundant but they've made the NCAA's 17 times so there is some tradition there. Smaller enrollment here helps as the BE doesn't want to be dwarfed by mega enrollments.


RE: FBS Split and the Big East had to add FB to stay D1 - Mav - 04-27-2019 12:07 PM

Doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose of the Big East? I imagine they'd break from the NCAA entirely if it came down to that. It's somehow a sillier idea than them bringing on UConn.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - DavidSt - 04-27-2019 03:14 PM

The 10 FBS teams plus Big Sky (tradition with some schools with MWC and PAC 12 schools.), Southland (plus some Lone Star schools who could make 15,000 attendance), MVFC + Murray State and if Milwaukee do pull the trigger to add football (Florida state legistraters made a ruling that no Florida public colleges and universities can't add football to compete with the big three and bam, we got UCF, USF, FIU, FAU and West Florida.), CAA football schools, the Southern public football schools, Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky, Jackson State and Tennessee State. We could see D2 schools like Dixie State, Central Oklahoma, Colorado Mesa, Azusa Pacific. Mankato State and some others could help. I would like to see a split between football and non-football schools.

Any schools want to join the FBS football schools need to add football and build their stadium up.

Little Rock, UTA, UTRGV, Wichita State, UNF, FGCU, Long Beach State, Cal.-Irvine, and Fullerton State must add football to join or stay in an FBS conference.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Bobcat2013 - 04-28-2019 09:12 AM

(04-27-2019 03:14 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The 10 FBS teams plus Big Sky (tradition with some schools with MWC and PAC 12 schools.), Southland (plus some Lone Star schools who could make 15,000 attendance), MVFC + Murray State and if Milwaukee do pull the trigger to add football (Florida state legistraters made a ruling that no Florida public colleges and universities can't add football to compete with the big three and bam, we got UCF, USF, FIU, FAU and West Florida.), CAA football schools, the Southern public football schools, Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky, Jackson State and Tennessee State. We could see D2 schools like Dixie State, Central Oklahoma, Colorado Mesa, Azusa Pacific. Mankato State and some others could help. I would like to see a split between football and non-football schools.

Any schools want to join the FBS football schools need to add football and build their stadium up.

Little Rock, UTA, UTRGV, Wichita State, UNF, FGCU, Long Beach State, Cal.-Irvine, and Fullerton State must add football to join or stay in an FBS conference.

Without looking I'd be willing to bet no Southland school averages over 15000 much less any Lone Star school03-lmfao


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - DavidSt - 04-28-2019 12:59 PM

(04-28-2019 09:12 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 03:14 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The 10 FBS teams plus Big Sky (tradition with some schools with MWC and PAC 12 schools.), Southland (plus some Lone Star schools who could make 15,000 attendance), MVFC + Murray State and if Milwaukee do pull the trigger to add football (Florida state legistraters made a ruling that no Florida public colleges and universities can't add football to compete with the big three and bam, we got UCF, USF, FIU, FAU and West Florida.), CAA football schools, the Southern public football schools, Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky, Jackson State and Tennessee State. We could see D2 schools like Dixie State, Central Oklahoma, Colorado Mesa, Azusa Pacific. Mankato State and some others could help. I would like to see a split between football and non-football schools.

Any schools want to join the FBS football schools need to add football and build their stadium up.

Little Rock, UTA, UTRGV, Wichita State, UNF, FGCU, Long Beach State, Cal.-Irvine, and Fullerton State must add football to join or stay in an FBS conference.

Without looking I'd be willing to bet no Southland school averages over 15000 much less any Lone Star school03-lmfao

Lamar, West Texas A&M, Commerce, Midwestern State, McNeese State and UTPB all are around 15,000. West Texas A&M hosting New Mexico State could easily get more than 22,000. Even UTEP could get that many. Others could get 15,000 if they could host local schools like North Texas, Texas State and so forth. North Texas sells more tickets for football when they host schools like Texas State, UTSA, SMU, Rice and others instead of when they sell tickets to FIU, FAU, Marshall and all that. That is why the AAC, SBC, C-USA would not work long term like they are doing right now. Fans do travel buying tickets better in-state than they do with schools out of state.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - CoachMaclid - 04-28-2019 01:24 PM

(04-27-2019 11:02 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  Marshall belongs in there, BE would cry about academics

In March, Carnegie reclassified Marshall as a national research university.

http://www.marshall.edu/ucomm/2019/03/06/marshall-university-named-a-research-university-by-the-carnegie-classification-system/


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - BruceMcF - 04-28-2019 06:26 PM

(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

Hypothetically in that case, the Big East would not be forced to add FB, because the breakaway would need to make sure that their BBall Tourney was seen as the next step up from the NCAA Tourney.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-28-2019 08:22 PM

(04-28-2019 06:26 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

Hypothetically in that case, the Big East would not be forced to add FB, because the breakaway would need to make sure that their BBall Tourney was seen as the next step up from the NCAA Tourney.

I'm saying if they make it a rule.

You must be a member of a conference that sponsors FBS football to be part of the new super division. This as a way to ferret out the non-FB conferences.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Bobcat2013 - 04-29-2019 09:48 AM

(04-28-2019 12:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-28-2019 09:12 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 03:14 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The 10 FBS teams plus Big Sky (tradition with some schools with MWC and PAC 12 schools.), Southland (plus some Lone Star schools who could make 15,000 attendance), MVFC + Murray State and if Milwaukee do pull the trigger to add football (Florida state legistraters made a ruling that no Florida public colleges and universities can't add football to compete with the big three and bam, we got UCF, USF, FIU, FAU and West Florida.), CAA football schools, the Southern public football schools, Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Jacksonville State, Eastern Kentucky, Jackson State and Tennessee State. We could see D2 schools like Dixie State, Central Oklahoma, Colorado Mesa, Azusa Pacific. Mankato State and some others could help. I would like to see a split between football and non-football schools.

Any schools want to join the FBS football schools need to add football and build their stadium up.

Little Rock, UTA, UTRGV, Wichita State, UNF, FGCU, Long Beach State, Cal.-Irvine, and Fullerton State must add football to join or stay in an FBS conference.

Without looking I'd be willing to bet no Southland school averages over 15000 much less any Lone Star school03-lmfao

Lamar, West Texas A&M, Commerce, Midwestern State, McNeese State and UTPB all are around 15,000. West Texas A&M hosting New Mexico State could easily get more than 22,000. Even UTEP could get that many. Others could get 15,000 if they could host local schools like North Texas, Texas State and so forth. North Texas sells more tickets for football when they host schools like Texas State, UTSA, SMU, Rice and others instead of when they sell tickets to FIU, FAU, Marshall and all that. That is why the AAC, SBC, C-USA would not work long term like they are doing right now. Fans do travel buying tickets better in-state than they do with schools out of state.

I didn't bother to average whole seasons for those schools but I went with the conference openers for most of them which should be one of the highest attended games. The only one close to 15k was McNeese at 13 k for one game, followed by a dropoff to 9k the next game.

Lamar: 6k
McNeese: 13k, then 9k
WT: 5.5k
AMCommerce: 7k
Midwestern State: 3.5K
UTPB: 3.5K

Obviously all of those schools would see attendance spikes if they hosted G5s just like we see spikes when we host P5s.....


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - panite - 04-30-2019 07:44 AM

(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3

Under your hypothetical scenario the Big East would go after UConn first and move Villanova football up to FBS. It would then fill out with other AAC schools to somewhat resemble the OLD BE.

FB - All Sports:
Villanova
UConn
Temple
Cinn
Memphis
UCF
USF

FB Only:
Army
Navy

The conference footprint remains primarily in the North for travel purposes with two large universities in Florida like the OLD BE along with the BB schools that are currently in the NBE. IT would be an 18 team league with 16 for BB and 9 for FB. The conference could go to 2 divisions for BB and play 8 conference FB games with 4 OOC games to fill out the FB schedule helping Army and Navy to meet their scheduling needs. 07-coffee3


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-30-2019 05:44 PM

(04-30-2019 07:44 AM)panite Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3

Under your hypothetical scenario the Big East would go after UConn first and move Villanova football up to FBS. It would then fill out with other AAC schools to somewhat resemble the OLD BE.

FB - All Sports:
Villanova
UConn
Temple
Cinn
Memphis
UCF
USF

FB Only:
Army
Navy

The conference footprint remains primarily in the North for travel purposes with two large universities in Florida like the OLD BE along with the BB schools that are currently in the NBE. IT would be an 18 team league with 16 for BB and 9 for FB. The conference could go to 2 divisions for BB and play 8 conference FB games with 4 OOC games to fill out the FB schedule helping Army and Navy to meet their scheduling needs. 07-coffee3

I am assuming the AAC schools are off limits with the new TV deal.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - RutgersGuy - 04-30-2019 07:19 PM

(04-27-2019 10:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.

Why would the big east be forced to D2? More likely is if a split of the P5 from the rest of D1 the Big East would be invited along. They don't take any FB money and would help make the BBall side more money.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-30-2019 09:50 PM

(04-30-2019 07:19 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 10:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.

Why would the big east be forced to D2? More likely is if a split of the P5 from the rest of D1 the Big East would be invited along. They don't take any FB money and would help make the BBall side more money.

So the P5 can weed out the non-football conferences of the current D1 structure.

That's why.


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - RutgersGuy - 04-30-2019 09:57 PM

(04-30-2019 09:50 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-30-2019 07:19 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 10:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 08:02 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Another hypothetical situation. There is FBS split and the Big East if they want to stay on board has to add FB.

The Big East by rule would need 8 existing FBS schools to join it. For arguments sake I will say existing AAC schools are off the table with the 1 billion dollar deal the AAC has. This is where the BE will have to be looking then for new members.

UMass (rival for Providence)
Buffalo (5 NCAA games in 4 years)
ODU (Tidewater is a nice market)
Ohio (13,000 seater for BB)
Miami (Nice rival for X and Butler)
Toledo (Has the facilities)
WMU (2016 Cotton Bowl)
NIU (2012 Orange Bowl)

07-coffee3


Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.

Why would the big east be forced to D2? More likely is if a split of the P5 from the rest of D1 the Big East would be invited along. They don't take any FB money and would help make the BBall side more money.

So the P5 can weed out the non-football conferences of the current D1 structure.

That's why.

Why would they need to weed them out? They don't touch the FB money which is what they really care about. Also the Big East spends (and makes) more in BBall than the G5 conferences so why would the P5 want to weed them out? They are looked at as a peer by those conferences hence the scheduling deals with the B1G and XII. Does this thread have any ties to reality?


RE: FBS Split and if the Big East has to add FB to stay D1 - Kit-Cat - 04-30-2019 10:07 PM

(04-30-2019 09:57 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(04-30-2019 09:50 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-30-2019 07:19 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 10:49 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(04-27-2019 09:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Big East schools will not add FBS football. They would be happy being the big fish in a small pond. This would force schools like Little Rock, Wichita State and UTA to add football. I could see the MVFC schools join forces. That would make men's besketball stronger. Same with CAA football schools UMass. could join them, and VCU may add football to join them.

What if it means staying in D1 or having to be regulated to D2?

Before the new AAC TV deal they could have dangled an offer out to Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple to start up another hybrid FB conference. Those schools however are now locked up.

Why would the big east be forced to D2? More likely is if a split of the P5 from the rest of D1 the Big East would be invited along. They don't take any FB money and would help make the BBall side more money.

So the P5 can weed out the non-football conferences of the current D1 structure.

That's why.

Why would they need to weed them out? They don't touch the FB money which is what they really care about. Also the Big East spends (and makes) more in BBall than the G5 conferences so why would the P5 want to weed them out? They are looked at as a peer by those conferences hence the scheduling deals with the B1G and XII. Does this thread have any ties to reality?

Yes if a D1 split requires FBS football.

AAC is in a much stronger position because of FB.