(01-06-2019 01:07 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  This thread , or at least my input to it, will only address one half of the P6 equation, the (growing) separation of the AAC from the G4 conferences. I havent yet done the more extensive work to compare total, conference inventory, and intra-conference ratings for all ten conferences.

This builds off of work done a year ago, comparing million-viewer plus audiences for the non-contract-bowl conferences. Things have been a little hectic for the slh family and I can do this more back of the envelope.

As always, http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ is my go-to for the data.

2018 Season - million viewer games (and those bowl/CCG games that fell short).

AAC
Fiesta Bowl 8.471M
Army Navy 8.05M
UCF Mem (regular) 3.331M*
CCG 3.32 M
Cin UCF 3.09M
Ariz HOU 2.918M**
GT-USF 2.918M**
Military Bowl 2.663M
Armed Forces Bowl 2.577M
Birmingham Bowl 2.533M
ND-Navy 2.447M
USF-HOU 2.350M*
Independence Bowl 1.801M
Gasparilla Bowl 1.75M
UCF USF1.741M
FAU-UCF 1.295M
Tem-UCF 1.191M
USF-Tulsa 1.170M
Hou-TxTech 1.079M
TCU-SMU 1.076M
Cin-UCLA 1.008M
(* these games were reverse mirror, so even cutting in half greater than million.
** These two AAC games were reverse mirror of each other, so AAC-controlled game got ALL those viewers)

mwc
Las Vegas Bowl 3.334M
Frisco Bowl 1.447M
Servpro First Responder Bowl 1.445M
Boise-OkState 1.438M
Hawaii Bowl 1.159M
USU-Boise 1.078M
CCG 1.036M
New Mexico Bowl 968k

MAC
Ball State@ND 2.453M
Dollar General Mobile Bowl 1.698M
Frisco Bowl 1.447M
Potato Bowl 1.372M
Boca Raton Bowl 1.346M
Camellia Bowl 986k
Bahamas Bowl 838k
CCG 587k

CUSA
WKU@Wisc 1.409M
FAU@Oklahoma 1.385M
New Orleans Bowl 1.371M
Boca Raton Bowl 1.346M
FAU@UCF 1.295M
Hawaii Bowl 1.159M
New Mexico Bowl 968k
Bahamas Bowl 838k
(CCG was on CBSSN and not Nielsen rated)

SunBelt
Dollar General Mobile Bowl 1.698M
Ark.St.@ Bama 1.663M
New Orleans Bowl 1.371M
Camellia Bowl 986k

BYU for comparison
@Wisconsin 2.913M
Potato Bowl 1.372M
@Washington 1.286M

2018 all games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 5, mwc 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 12, mwc 1, MAC 1, BYU 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 21, mwc 7, MAC 5, CUSA 6, SunBelt 3, BYU 3

2018 non-bowl games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 4, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 8, G4s 0, BYU 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 15, mwc 4, MAC 1, CUSA 3, SunBelt 1, BYU 2

2018 conference-controlled games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 6, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 11, mwc 2, all others 0

2018 intra-conference games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3, G4s 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 4, G4s 0
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 7, mwc 2, all others 0

(01-06-2019 01:33 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 01:07 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  This thread , or at least my input to it, will only address one half of the P6 equation, the (growing) separation of the AAC from the G4 conferences. I havent yet done the more extensive work to compare total, conference inventory, and intra-conference ratings for all ten conferences.

This builds off of work done a year ago, comparing million-viewer plus audiences for the non-contract-bowl conferences. Things have been a little hectic for the slh family and I can do this more back of the envelope.

As always, http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ is my go-to for the data.

2018 Season - million viewer games (and those bowl/CCG games that fell short).

AAC
Fiesta Bowl 8.471M
Army Navy 8.05M
UCF Mem (regular) 3.331M*
CCG 3.32 M
Cin UCF 3.09M
Ariz HOU 2.918M**
GT-USF 2.918M**
Military Bowl 2.663M
Armed Forces Bowl 2.577M
Birmingham Bowl 2.533M
ND-Navy 2.447M
USF-HOU 2.350M*
Independence Bowl 1.801M
Gasparilla Bowl 1.75M
UCF USF1.741M
FAU-UCF 1.295M
Tem-UCF 1.191M
USF-Tulsa 1.170M
Hou-TxTech 1.079M
TCU-SMU 1.076M
Cin-UCLA 1.008M
(* these games were reverse mirror, so even cutting in half greater than million.
** These two AAC games were reverse mirror of each other, so AAC-controlled game got ALL those viewers)

mwc
Las Vegas Bowl 3.334M
Frisco Bowl 1.447M
Servpro First Responder Bowl 1.445M
Boise-OkState 1.438M
Hawaii Bowl 1.159M
USU-Boise 1.078M
CCG 1.036M
New Mexico Bowl 968k

MAC
Ball State@ND 2.453M
Dollar General Mobile Bowl 1.698M
Frisco Bowl 1.447M
Potato Bowl 1.372M
Boca Raton Bowl 1.346M
Camellia Bowl 986k
Bahamas Bowl 838k
CCG 587k

CUSA
WKU@Wisc 1.409M
FAU@Oklahoma 1.385M
New Orleans Bowl 1.371M
Boca Raton Bowl 1.346M
FAU@UCF 1.295M
Hawaii Bowl 1.159M
New Mexico Bowl 968k
Bahamas Bowl 838k
(CCG was on CBSSN and not Nielsen rated)

SunBelt
Dollar General Mobile Bowl 1.698M
Ark.St.@ Bama 1.663M
New Orleans Bowl 1.371M
Camellia Bowl 986k

BYU for comparison
@Wisconsin 2.913M
Potato Bowl 1.372M
@Washington 1.286M

2018 all games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 5, mwc 1
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 12, mwc 1, MAC 1, BYU 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 21, mwc 7, MAC 5, CUSA 6, SunBelt 3, BYU 3

2018 non-bowl games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 4, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 8, G4s 0, BYU 1
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 15, mwc 4, MAC 1, CUSA 3, SunBelt 2, BYU 1

2018 conference-controlled games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 6, G4s/BYU 0
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 11, mwc 2, all others 0

2018 intra-conference games
Greater than three million viewers: AAC 3, G4s 0
Greater than two million viewers: AAC 4, G4s 0
Greater than one million viewers: AAC 7, mwc 2, all others 0

That work from last year can be found here: https://csnbbs.com/thread-838636-post-15000707.html#pid15000707

Adding the 2018 information:

'15-'18 total games over 3 million viewers: AAC 26, mwc 4, MAC 3
'15-'18 total games over 2 million viewers: AAC 49, CUSA 6, MAC 10, mwc 12, SBC 2
'15-'18 total games over 1 million viewers: AAC 79, CUSA 29, MAC 26, mwc 38, SBC 6

'15-'18 non-bowl games over 3 million viewers: AAC 19. MAC 2
'15-'18 non-bowl games over 2 million viewers: AAC 33, CUSA 3, MAC 1, mwc 5
'15-'18 non-bowl games over 1 million viewers: AAC 54, CUSA 6, MAC 10, mwc 17, SBC 3

'15-'18 conference controlled games over 3 million viewers: AAC 11, G4s 0
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 2 million viewers: AAC 20, mwc 1
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 1 million viewers: AAC 35, CUSA 1, MAC 2, mwc 5

'15-'18 intra-conference games over 3 million viewers: AAC 7, G4s 0
'15-'18 intra-conference games over 2 million viewers: AAC 11, G4s 0
'15-'18 intra-conference games over 1 million viewers: AAC 13, MAC 2 (CCGs), mwc 3 (2 reg season, 1 CCG)
Those million-plus viewer AAC vs AAC games included ten of the twelve teams.

(01-06-2019 02:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And this is why the P4 doubters who think we will get a CUSA level TV deal (cuz everyone knows ESPN is going broke) are dead wrong. Its also why those freaking out that ESPN will be the only bidder need to calm down. I guarantee---if we are aware of these numbers---ESPN, NBC, CBS-Sports, TNT, and the FANG folks are all aware of these numbers as well.

Interesting article here. The key data is posted below. Looking at the below data-- and comparing that data to the AAC ratings posted in the OP---you'll find our top 13 games are essentially equal to the UFC numbers and the next 6 at or above 1 million viewers.

This would indicate that in open bidding, the market would appear likely to value a live sports media property with the AAC's ratings at around 150 million a year (and that value assumes the AAC's reasonably attractive basketball content has a value of zero). I continue to say that my 6-8 million per team valuation is extremely reasonable and very conservative. Id also bet the demographics and income profile of AAC football are more attractive to advertisers than UFC. So, using this comparable transaction as an indicator of value would point toward a deal where each AAC gets around 12.5 million a year.

Financially, the biggest risk is ESPN+. A large part of the deal, including 20 live full shows and prelims on at least 10 more shows, will be on ESPN’s $4.99 per month streaming property. If one values the $300 million as half television and half streaming, and the original stream deal — at the time for 15, not 20 shows, was for $150 million — it would require UFC to bring in 2.5 million paying homes just to make up that money. And that’s actually quite low, because factoring in costs, that figure would have to be much larger than that. That figure is absurd, given the UFC’s own Fight Pass service had 400,000 to 500,000 subscribers worldwide, and the ESPN+ deal is just for the U.S.

More telling, for free, the recent UFC shows on FOX have hovered between 1.4 million and 1.7 million homes in recent years. It’s doubtful the streaming shows will be as good, and certainly not more loaded than the caliber of shows the UFC had put on network TV.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/6/17/17401720/ufc-financially-secure-until-2023-with-espn-deal-but-there-are-brand-risks

(01-06-2019 01:55 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  Awesome work, slhNavy91

Those rating results are pretty impressive... No way ESPN is the only tv network bidding for AAC sport content.

(01-06-2019 02:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And this is why the P4 doubters who think we will get a CUSA level TV deal (cuz everyone knows ESPN is going broke) are dead wrong. Its also why those freaking out that ESPN will be the only bidder need to calm down. I guarantee---if we are aware of these numbers---ESPN, NBC, CBS-Sports, TNT, and the FANG folks are all aware of these numbers as well.

Interesting article here. The key data is posted below. Looking at the below data-- and comparing that data to the AAC ratings posted in the OP---you'll find our top 13 games are essentially equal to the UFC numbers and the next 6 at or above 1 million viewers.

This would indicate that in open bidding, the market would appear likely to value a live sports media property with the AAC's ratings at around 150 million a year (and that value assumes the AAC's reasonably attractive basketball content has a value of zero). I continue to say that my 6-8 million per team valuation is extremely reasonable and very conservative. Id also bet the demographics and income profile of AAC football are more attractive to advertisers than UFC. So, using this comparable transaction as an indicator of value would point toward a deal where each AAC gets around 12.5 million a year.

Financially, the biggest risk is ESPN+. A large part of the deal, including 20 live full shows and prelims on at least 10 more shows, will be on ESPN’s $4.99 per month streaming property. If one values the $300 million as half television and half streaming, and the original stream deal — at the time for 15, not 20 shows, was for $150 million — it would require UFC to bring in 2.5 million paying homes just to make up that money. And that’s actually quite low, because factoring in costs, that figure would have to be much larger than that. That figure is absurd, given the UFC’s own Fight Pass service had 400,000 to 500,000 subscribers worldwide, and the ESPN+ deal is just for the U.S.

More telling, for free, the recent UFC shows on FOX have hovered between 1.4 million and 1.7 million homes in recent years. It’s doubtful the streaming shows will be as good, and certainly not more loaded than the caliber of shows the UFC had put on network TV.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/6/17/17401720/ufc-financially-secure-until-2023-with-espn-deal-but-there-are-brand-risks

(01-06-2019 05:22 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 02:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And this is why the P4 doubters who think we will get a CUSA level TV deal (cuz everyone knows ESPN is going broke) are dead wrong. Its also why those freaking out that ESPN will be the only bidder need to calm down. I guarantee---if we are aware of these numbers---ESPN, NBC, CBS-Sports, TNT, and the FANG folks are all aware of these numbers as well.

Interesting article here. The key data is posted below. Looking at the below data-- and comparing that data to the AAC ratings posted in the OP---you'll find our top 13 games are essentially equal to the UFC numbers and the next 6 at or above 1 million viewers.

This would indicate that in open bidding, the market would appear likely to value a live sports media property with the AAC's ratings at around 150 million a year (and that value assumes the AAC's reasonably attractive basketball content has a value of zero). I continue to say that my 6-8 million per team valuation is extremely reasonable and very conservative. Id also bet the demographics and income profile of AAC football are more attractive to advertisers than UFC. So, using this comparable transaction as an indicator of value would point toward a deal where each AAC gets around 12.5 million a year.

Financially, the biggest risk is ESPN+. A large part of the deal, including 20 live full shows and prelims on at least 10 more shows, will be on ESPN’s $4.99 per month streaming property. If one values the $300 million as half television and half streaming, and the original stream deal — at the time for 15, not 20 shows, was for $150 million — it would require UFC to bring in 2.5 million paying homes just to make up that money. And that’s actually quite low, because factoring in costs, that figure would have to be much larger than that. That figure is absurd, given the UFC’s own Fight Pass service had 400,000 to 500,000 subscribers worldwide, and the ESPN+ deal is just for the U.S.

More telling, for free, the recent UFC shows on FOX have hovered between 1.4 million and 1.7 million homes in recent years. It’s doubtful the streaming shows will be as good, and certainly not more loaded than the caliber of shows the UFC had put on network TV.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/6/17/17401720/ufc-financially-secure-until-2023-with-espn-deal-but-there-are-brand-risks

Finally!!! I've been saying for the longest that we should be expecting 10-12.5 million easily. The key is to get to the open market. I feel that Aresco and the negotiating team have very little interest in signing up 100% with ESPN outside of a monster contract, but they have to continue showing ESPN respect no matter what. Like what has been stated, every network not only has this data but even more precise and detailed info. Our best option is to start pinpointing exactly what it is that ESPN wants comparable to what an NBC and/or CBS wants and allow those parties a chance to bid on it and if one network like ESPN wants it all at least we'll know that they paid true market value. I Also believe that our championships games in basketball and football should sold separately for at least a combined 36mil which will add 3 more million to each team.

(01-06-2019 05:40 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 05:22 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 02:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And this is why the P4 doubters who think we will get a CUSA level TV deal (cuz everyone knows ESPN is going broke) are dead wrong. Its also why those freaking out that ESPN will be the only bidder need to calm down. I guarantee---if we are aware of these numbers---ESPN, NBC, CBS-Sports, TNT, and the FANG folks are all aware of these numbers as well.

Interesting article here. The key data is posted below. Looking at the below data-- and comparing that data to the AAC ratings posted in the OP---you'll find our top 13 games are essentially equal to the UFC numbers and the next 6 at or above 1 million viewers.

This would indicate that in open bidding, the market would appear likely to value a live sports media property with the AAC's ratings at around 150 million a year (and that value assumes the AAC's reasonably attractive basketball content has a value of zero). I continue to say that my 6-8 million per team valuation is extremely reasonable and very conservative. Id also bet the demographics and income profile of AAC football are more attractive to advertisers than UFC. So, using this comparable transaction as an indicator of value would point toward a deal where each AAC gets around 12.5 million a year.

Financially, the biggest risk is ESPN+. A large part of the deal, including 20 live full shows and prelims on at least 10 more shows, will be on ESPN’s $4.99 per month streaming property. If one values the $300 million as half television and half streaming, and the original stream deal — at the time for 15, not 20 shows, was for $150 million — it would require UFC to bring in 2.5 million paying homes just to make up that money. And that’s actually quite low, because factoring in costs, that figure would have to be much larger than that. That figure is absurd, given the UFC’s own Fight Pass service had 400,000 to 500,000 subscribers worldwide, and the ESPN+ deal is just for the U.S.

More telling, for free, the recent UFC shows on FOX have hovered between 1.4 million and 1.7 million homes in recent years. It’s doubtful the streaming shows will be as good, and certainly not more loaded than the caliber of shows the UFC had put on network TV.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/6/17/17401720/ufc-financially-secure-until-2023-with-espn-deal-but-there-are-brand-risks

Finally!!! I've been saying for the longest that we should be expecting 10-12.5 million easily. The key is to get to the open market. I feel that Aresco and the negotiating team have very little interest in signing up 100% with ESPN outside of a monster contract, but they have to continue showing ESPN respect no matter what. Like what has been stated, every network not only has this data but even more precise and detailed info. Our best option is to start pinpointing exactly what it is that ESPN wants comparable to what an NBC and/or CBS wants and allow those parties a chance to bid on it and if one network like ESPN wants it all at least we'll know that they paid true market value. I Also believe that our championships games in basketball and football should sold separately for at least a combined 36mil which will add 3 more million to each team.

Might want to pump the brakes a little on that. Football CCG is in my post 3.3M viewers each of the last two years on ABC. Once head to head with SEC and once against weaker competition. No way that it is worth $18M by itself.

(01-06-2019 05:51 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 05:40 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 05:22 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(01-06-2019 02:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And this is why the P4 doubters who think we will get a CUSA level TV deal (cuz everyone knows ESPN is going broke) are dead wrong. Its also why those freaking out that ESPN will be the only bidder need to calm down. I guarantee---if we are aware of these numbers---ESPN, NBC, CBS-Sports, TNT, and the FANG folks are all aware of these numbers as well.

Interesting article here. The key data is posted below. Looking at the below data-- and comparing that data to the AAC ratings posted in the OP---you'll find our top 13 games are essentially equal to the UFC numbers and the next 6 at or above 1 million viewers.

This would indicate that in open bidding, the market would appear likely to value a live sports media property with the AAC's ratings at around 150 million a year (and that value assumes the AAC's reasonably attractive basketball content has a value of zero). I continue to say that my 6-8 million per team valuation is extremely reasonable and very conservative. Id also bet the demographics and income profile of AAC football are more attractive to advertisers than UFC. So, using this comparable transaction as an indicator of value would point toward a deal where each AAC gets around 12.5 million a year.

Financially, the biggest risk is ESPN+. A large part of the deal, including 20 live full shows and prelims on at least 10 more shows, will be on ESPN’s $4.99 per month streaming property. If one values the $300 million as half television and half streaming, and the original stream deal — at the time for 15, not 20 shows, was for $150 million — it would require UFC to bring in 2.5 million paying homes just to make up that money. And that’s actually quite low, because factoring in costs, that figure would have to be much larger than that. That figure is absurd, given the UFC’s own Fight Pass service had 400,000 to 500,000 subscribers worldwide, and the ESPN+ deal is just for the U.S.

More telling, for free, the recent UFC shows on FOX have hovered between 1.4 million and 1.7 million homes in recent years. It’s doubtful the streaming shows will be as good, and certainly not more loaded than the caliber of shows the UFC had put on network TV.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/6/17/17401720/ufc-financially-secure-until-2023-with-espn-deal-but-there-are-brand-risks

Finally!!! I've been saying for the longest that we should be expecting 10-12.5 million easily. The key is to get to the open market. I feel that Aresco and the negotiating team have very little interest in signing up 100% with ESPN outside of a monster contract, but they have to continue showing ESPN respect no matter what. Like what has been stated, every network not only has this data but even more precise and detailed info. Our best option is to start pinpointing exactly what it is that ESPN wants comparable to what an NBC and/or CBS wants and allow those parties a chance to bid on it and if one network like ESPN wants it all at least we'll know that they paid true market value. I Also believe that our championships games in basketball and football should sold separately for at least a combined 36mil which will add 3 more million to each team.

Might want to pump the brakes a little on that. Football CCG is in my post 3.3M viewers each of the last two years on ABC. Once head to head with SEC and once against weaker competition. No way that it is worth $18M by itself.

How much are the other p5s getting for their CCG? I was thinking about 25-35 million and was assuming with comparable ratings 2 of the 5 conferences that would be a reasonable figure. I also believe that our bball tournament has really over performed ratings wise considering that the top brands have been down. Wouldn't that be considered a "growth stock " ratings wise?

(01-06-2019 01:33 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  '15-'18 conference controlled games over 3 million viewers: AAC 11, G4s 0
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 2 million viewers: AAC 20, mwc 1
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 1 million viewers: AAC 35, CUSA 1, MAC 2, mwc 5