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Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - ohio1317 - 10-14-2018 08:03 PM
Teams with 1st loss Week 7:
Georgia
West Virginia
Colorado
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
Washington
Penn State
Wisconsin
Miami (FL)
Troy
Hawaii
Teams with 1st win Week 7:
UCLA
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
5: Notre Dame, UCF/South Florida/Cincinnati, Ohio State, Clemson/North Carolina State, Alabama
-We lost the possible Big 12 and PAC-12 undefeateds this week.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-Lots of big things as far as these lists go. Let’s start with UCLA winning and taking Chip Kelly’s team off the winless list. They have been gradually improving through the season and finally got a win this week. It’s fairly stunning Nebraska was not also taken off the list this week given it took a pretty remarkable comeback/collapse for Northwestern to take that game. Still though, Nebraska remains our only winless team from a power 5 conference. I think right now all 3 of our remaining winless teams will win a game somewhere with the remaining schedules, although if I had to guess one to go winless right now it would be San Jose State.
-With Georgia falling in the SEC, we are now only have one remaining game between undefeated teams in the 5 power conferences left this year and it will be this week with North Carolina State and Clemson. The American undefeateds keep chugging though with South Florida and Central Florida coming from behind for victories this week to stay unbeaten along with Cincinnati. None of those teams play each other till next month.
-Outside of 2007 LSU, every team to make the BCS Championship bowl (whether at a bowl or its own thing) and CFP has had 0 or 1 losses and been in an AQ/Power 5 conference (or Notre Dame). If that holds up this year (it’s less likely than in the past for a few reasons), we how are down to 18 possible teams making the Cotton/Orange Bowls. In all likelihood, Penn State, Wisconsin, Washington, and Miami (FL) all were eliminated from those bowls this week regardless of what they do the rest of the way.
-It is now pretty much guaranteed the remaining undefeated teams from power conferences control their destiny no matter what else happens. Big 12 and PAC-12 are not out of this, but their margins for error are smaller now, especially in the PAC-12 (where the early favorite to win has 2 losses and the probable new favorite does not yet even control their own destiny to getting to the PAC-12 Championship).
-Group of 5 Race: Biggest thing this week was simply both UCF and USF pulling out come back wins. That keeps both firmly in control of their destiny and means American champ will probably have the edge if the east division winner wins the conference. Mountain West 1-loss teams hold steady outside of Hawaii (likely a longer shot anyway), but will need a break or two in the American.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeated teams this week: North Carolina State @ Clemson. Clemson will be the huge favorite, but stakes are very high here. If North Carolina State pulls off the victory, they would have to lose 2 of their last 5 for Clemson to get back on track for the ACC title game. In most circumstances meanwhile, Clemson will not make the Orange/Cotton if they do not win the ACC.
-Our other undefeated teams play in these games: undefeated Cincinnati @ Temple, undefeated Alabama @ Tennessee, undefeated Central Florida @ East Carolina, UConn @ undefeated South Florida, undefeated Ohio State @ Purdue,
-Our winless teams play in the following: Minnesota @ winless Nebraska, winless UTEP @ Louisiana Tech, winless San Jose State @ 1-loss San Diego State.
Of the three, if one wins, my guess would be Nebraska, but I wouldn’t bet any.
We have 2 games between 1-loss teams with North Texas @ UAB and Oregon @ Washington State.
-1-loss Oregon @ 1-loss Washington State: Zero chance of going to the playoff bowls without a victory here for either. A loss makes getting to PAC-12 Championship Game difficult for either.
-1-loss North Texas @ 1-loss UAB: This winner of this game is probably Conference USA’s only chance at the NY6 bowl. It will be an uphill battle at best, but don’t think anyone else will stand any chance. UAB definitely would have easier time if finished with 1-loss thanks to a game at Texas A&M still.
-Other interesting games from the list:
-1-loss Michigan @ Michigan State: The Wolverines and Spartans are both coming off big wins. Michigan has been looking better and better, but that’s been at home. Beat Sparty on the road and that will both put a big thing behind Harbaugh and keep Michigan in the Orange/Cotton chase (they’ll still be in Big Ten race either way). Michigan State meanwhile still controls their Big Ten destiny.
-Mississippi State @ 1-loss LSU: This is a game of ranked teams and is very big if you want Alabama to have any chance of missing the SEC Championship. It is doubtful the Tide lose one let alone 2 before then so pretty much only way Alabama is not in there is if LSU wins out. Lose this one and it won’t matter if they later if they somehow shock the Tide as far the SEC goes.
-Undefeated Cincinnati @ Temple: Cincinnati has been a big surprise team this year and this will be a major test. Probably hardest game on their schedule so far and if they win it, put them very much consideration with the Florida schools for the NY6 spot.
-Undefeated Ohio State @ Purdue: Ohio State has not looked great at too many points and Purdue’s losses have all been close. Game is at night and might well be bigger challenge than many will guess.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 8
Clemson
North Carolina State
Cincinnati
South Florida
Ohio State
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 20
Houston
Texas
Michigan
UAB
Utah State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Florida
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Oregon
Washington State
Iowa
Duke
Buffalo
North Texas
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Georgia
West Virginia
Colorado
Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, total: 3
Nebraska
UTEP
San Jose State
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - Nerdlinger - 10-14-2018 09:02 PM
Thanks for keeping up with this. What do you mean here when you say a team controls its own destiny?
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - IWokeUpLikeThis - 10-14-2018 10:51 PM
UCLA beat Cal by 30? Whoa.
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - ohio1317 - 10-15-2018 08:18 AM
(10-14-2018 09:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: Thanks for keeping up with this. What do you mean here when you say a team controls its own destiny?
Means that if they win out, they are going to the playoff bowls mostly. They don't have to rely on others losing to make it.
If it was said within context of conference race, it means if they win out they are going to the conference championship game. If they don't control their destiny there, then they need someone else to lose in addition to winning out. Oregon needs Stanford to lose to make the PAC-12 Championship game. If Stanford doesn't lose, it does not matter if Oregon goes unbeaten rest of the way, they aren't going to the PAC-12 Championship.
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - Nerdlinger - 10-15-2018 10:59 AM
(10-15-2018 08:18 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:(10-14-2018 09:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: Thanks for keeping up with this. What do you mean here when you say a team controls its own destiny?
Means that if they win out, they are going to the playoff bowls mostly. They don't have to rely on others losing to make it.
If it was said within context of conference race, it means if they win out they are going to the conference championship game. If they don't control their destiny there, then they need someone else to lose in addition to winning out. Oregon needs Stanford to lose to make the PAC-12 Championship game. If Stanford doesn't lose, it does not matter if Oregon goes unbeaten rest of the way, they aren't going to the PAC-12 Championship.
Ah, OK. That makes sense. Thanks!
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - CougarRed - 10-21-2018 07:37 PM
Undefeated (5)
American - UCF, USF
ACC - Clemson
Ind - Notre Dame
SEC - Bama
One Loss (21)
American - Houston, Cincy
ACC - NC St
Big 12 - OU, Texas, West Va
Big Ten - Michigan, Ohio St, Iowa
CUSA - UAB
MAC - Buffalo
MWC - Utah St, Fresno St, SD St
Pac-12 - Wash St
SEC - Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, LSU
Sun Belt - Ga Southern, App St
Big Week 9 Games Between Teams on the Above Lists
USF at Houston
App St at Georgia Southern
Florida vs Georgia
RE: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 8) - Hokie Mark - 10-26-2018 04:08 PM
2-or-more Ugly Losses:
Virginia Tech