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RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Cataclysmo - 03-30-2018 03:25 PM
(03-30-2018 02:25 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 12:26 PM)RealDeal Wrote:(03-30-2018 11:55 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: I'm just saying, if Evans comes back we are probably a top 15 preseason team and it's not out of the question for a big run to finally happen.I don't agree with them but the anti-Cronin faction has made up their minds and one extended run is not going to change many minds. I'm not sure a Final Four team would sell a lot of them. I think he'd have to put up regular runs to convince most of them.
It's funny, but one guy's NBA decision could result in a season that would entirely change this fan bases perception of Cronin
The corollary is that the pro-Cronin fans will never give up on him.
The difference is that it makes more sense to stick by a coach after back to back 30 win seasons than it does to call for his head.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - cpawfan - 03-30-2018 04:36 PM
(03-30-2018 03:25 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:(03-30-2018 02:25 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 12:26 PM)RealDeal Wrote:(03-30-2018 11:55 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: I'm just saying, if Evans comes back we are probably a top 15 preseason team and it's not out of the question for a big run to finally happen.I don't agree with them but the anti-Cronin faction has made up their minds and one extended run is not going to change many minds. I'm not sure a Final Four team would sell a lot of them. I think he'd have to put up regular runs to convince most of them.
It's funny, but one guy's NBA decision could result in a season that would entirely change this fan bases perception of Cronin
The corollary is that the pro-Cronin fans will never give up on him.
The difference is that it makes more sense to stick by a coach after back to back 30 win seasons than it does to call for his head.
There are plenty of posters in the middle calling for Mick to change and wanting to see him succeed.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Former Lurker - 03-30-2018 04:58 PM
(03-30-2018 03:25 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:(03-30-2018 02:25 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 12:26 PM)RealDeal Wrote:(03-30-2018 11:55 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: I'm just saying, if Evans comes back we are probably a top 15 preseason team and it's not out of the question for a big run to finally happen.I don't agree with them but the anti-Cronin faction has made up their minds and one extended run is not going to change many minds. I'm not sure a Final Four team would sell a lot of them. I think he'd have to put up regular runs to convince most of them.
It's funny, but one guy's NBA decision could result in a season that would entirely change this fan bases perception of Cronin
The corollary is that the pro-Cronin fans will never give up on him.
The difference is that it makes more sense to stick by a coach after back to back 30 win seasons than it does to call for his head.
These last two seasons are honestly the weakest 30-win seasons in the history of college basketball. Both years, we were about .500 against decent competition. About 25 of the 30 wins came against stiffs. Using the Sagarin ratings, last year's team was 2-3 against the top 25, 4-5 against the top 50. This year's team was 3-4 and 4-5. Also, this year's team was 5-4 against the NCAA field. Early exits both years. Worst of all, he has a losing record to Xavier both overall and 4 out of the last 5 years. I never thought I'd see a fanbase so complacent about playing second fiddle to X.
I'm not calling for his head, but there is a reason that the elite program 100 miles SW of here just hired X's coach while ours didn't even get an interview. There are many high major programs flush with football money that could afford to make a bid for him; why is nobody interested?
The original topic of this thread is expectations going forward. I would expect that there is a heavy presumption that those who believe the next 10 years will look much like the last 8 are correct.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - levydl - 03-30-2018 06:35 PM
(03-30-2018 04:58 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 03:25 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:(03-30-2018 02:25 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 12:26 PM)RealDeal Wrote:(03-30-2018 11:55 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: I'm just saying, if Evans comes back we are probably a top 15 preseason team and it's not out of the question for a big run to finally happen.I don't agree with them but the anti-Cronin faction has made up their minds and one extended run is not going to change many minds. I'm not sure a Final Four team would sell a lot of them. I think he'd have to put up regular runs to convince most of them.
It's funny, but one guy's NBA decision could result in a season that would entirely change this fan bases perception of Cronin
The corollary is that the pro-Cronin fans will never give up on him.
The difference is that it makes more sense to stick by a coach after back to back 30 win seasons than it does to call for his head.
These last two seasons are honestly the weakest 30-win seasons in the history of college basketball. Both years, we were about .500 against decent competition. About 25 of the 30 wins came against stiffs. Using the Sagarin ratings, last year's team was 2-3 against the top 25, 4-5 against the top 50. This year's team was 3-4 and 4-5. Also, this year's team was 5-4 against the NCAA field. Early exits both years. Worst of all, he has a losing record to Xavier both overall and 4 out of the last 5 years. I never thought I'd see a fanbase so complacent about playing second fiddle to X.
I'm not calling for his head, but there is a reason that the elite program 100 miles SW of here just hired X's coach while ours didn't even get an interview. There are many high major programs flush with football money that could afford to make a bid for him; why is nobody interested?
The original topic of this thread is expectations going forward. I would expect that there is a heavy presumption that those who believe the next 10 years will look much like the last 8 are correct.
This is really transparent in not even trying to fairly evaluate things.
Like, you cite Sagarin ratings to show that UC has been mediocre against good teams, but don't mention that Sagarin has them ranked 6th this year and 20th last year? Do you think Cronin gamed that system or something? Or that the stats you cite are more salient?
And then you note that he's lost 4 of 5 against X, because that's the stretch that makes it look the worst.
Oh, and he didn't even get an interview at UofL. But literally no one else got an interview, they hired their number 1 guy.
As for why other schools aren't clamoring for him, he's turned down other mediocre big conference jobs in the past (NC St., maybe? I can't recall exactly). What jobs are open this year that would be a match, besides UofL?
As for whether the next 10 years will look like the last 8, I'd ask how you thought, beforehand, these last 10 years would look like? How accurate were you, you think?
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - UCbball21 - 03-30-2018 06:55 PM
I think it is perfectly reasonable to be critical of Coach Cronin. It's not his necessarily the results (though his results in March leave something to be desired) but his general attitude and dismissive demeanor that many fans are fed up with. The "Sweet 16s are for fans and recruits" statement will haunt him. Cronin gives off the vibe that he doesn't care about the fans so why shouldn't we be allowed to be critical?
Coach Cronin needs a lesson on how to speak to the media so he doesn't come off like such a prick all of the time.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Nobones - 03-30-2018 07:07 PM
I think the old baseball saying goes with this also. You pretty much play to your back of your card. So that means we are going to go thru a down trend a little for the next few years and then have a good team in like 4 or 5 years and still have early exits.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Bearcat01 - 03-30-2018 08:16 PM
(03-30-2018 03:25 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:This isn't bush league. Out of 60 wins past 2 seasons how many was against top 25 team at time? Whats our record against top 25?(03-30-2018 02:25 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:(03-30-2018 12:26 PM)RealDeal Wrote:(03-30-2018 11:55 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: I'm just saying, if Evans comes back we are probably a top 15 preseason team and it's not out of the question for a big run to finally happen.I don't agree with them but the anti-Cronin faction has made up their minds and one extended run is not going to change many minds. I'm not sure a Final Four team would sell a lot of them. I think he'd have to put up regular runs to convince most of them.
It's funny, but one guy's NBA decision could result in a season that would entirely change this fan bases perception of Cronin
The corollary is that the pro-Cronin fans will never give up on him.
The difference is that it makes more sense to stick by a coach after back to back 30 win seasons than it does to call for his head.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Bearcat01 - 03-30-2018 08:18 PM
vandy got mcdonalds all americans. mick couldnt get one?
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - gerhard911 - 03-30-2018 09:33 PM
(03-30-2018 06:55 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: I think it is perfectly reasonable to be critical of Coach Cronin. It's not his necessarily the results (though his results in March leave something to be desired) but his general attitude and dismissive demeanor that many fans are fed up with. The "Sweet 16s are for fans and recruits" statement will haunt him. Cronin gives off the vibe that he doesn't care about the fans so why shouldn't we be allowed to be critical?
Coach Cronin needs a lesson on how to speak to the media so he doesn't come off like such a prick all of the time.
Agree with all of this but especially the bolded.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Downtown Shocker Brown - 03-30-2018 11:59 PM
(03-30-2018 09:33 PM)gerhard911 Wrote:(03-30-2018 06:55 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: I think it is perfectly reasonable to be critical of Coach Cronin. It's not his necessarily the results (though his results in March leave something to be desired) but his general attitude and dismissive demeanor that many fans are fed up with. The "Sweet 16s are for fans and recruits" statement will haunt him. Cronin gives off the vibe that he doesn't care about the fans so why shouldn't we be allowed to be critical?
Coach Cronin needs a lesson on how to speak to the media so he doesn't come off like such a prick all of the time.
Agree with all of this but especially the bolded.
Asking for myself: Name one successful coach that doesnt come across as a prick?
Cronin. Marshall. Sampson. Self. Wright. Most are pricks to stupid media.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - RealDeal - 03-31-2018 07:01 AM
I couldn't agree more. College coaches are so powerful that they all feel like they can be jerks publicly. Cronin certainly belongs in that group but I think his gets perceived differently maybe due to his stature. Boheim says something and he's a big intimidating guy. Cronin says the same thing and he's an out of control winer.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - bearcatlawjd2 - 03-31-2018 08:25 AM
Why do our own fans continue to tear down our own coach and program?
I want to get back to the Huggins years like everyone else. I am talking 5 conference tournament championships in a row, 7 regular season conference championships in a row, 14 NCAA tournaments in a row, and probably the least talked about but most important stat is this from 1996 through 2002 UC did not lose a first round NCAA tournament game. What I have seen the last two seasons looks closer to 1996 through 2002. If UC can be good enough over the next five to ten years to always get to round of 32 based on being a solid favorite in the first round game, UC is bound to advance based the first weekend based on the odds. During the Huggins years they went from 1992 to 2002 with only one first one loss. Included in that time was an Final Four, two Elite Eights, and Sweet 16. My point being is that if you continue to earn high seeds over a long period of time and make the second round at 80 percent to 90 percent clip, a Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final Four will occur just based on the odds.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - bearcatmill - 03-31-2018 09:57 AM
(03-31-2018 08:25 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote: Why do our own fans continue to tear down our own coach and program?
I want to get back to the Huggins years like everyone else. I am talking 5 conference tournament championships in a row, 7 regular season conference championships in a row, 14 NCAA tournaments in a row, and probably the least talked about but most important stat is this from 1996 through 2002 UC did not lose a first round NCAA tournament game. What I have seen the last two seasons looks closer to 1996 through 2002. If UC can be good enough over the next five to ten years to always get to round of 32 based on being a solid favorite in the first round game, UC is bound to advance based the first weekend based on the odds. During the Huggins years they went from 1992 to 2002 with only one first one loss. Included in that time was an Final Four, two Elite Eights, and Sweet 16. My point being is that if you continue to earn high seeds over a long period of time and make the second round at 80 percent to 90 percent clip, a Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final Four will occur just based on the odds.
This is observational not judgmental. 1/3 of the fanbase doesn’t care for Cronin, 1/3 thinks he walks on water or UC can’t do any better and 1/3 fluctuates. That last 1/3 is starting to lean towards the doesn’t care for group. Winning big in February and March cures everything. Mick doesn’t help his cause when he downplays big games and March or talks down to “those who have to work for living.”
He’s not going anywhere. My hope is he might achieve some of what you talk about lawjd2
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Bearcat 1985 - 03-31-2018 10:16 AM
I think the biggest difference between now and Huggins' run is that the regional competition is much harder today. In the 90s Xavier was a good program but not elite, more similar to Dayton than what they are now. UK was up and down. OSU was garbage for much of the decade. Louisville didn't have the P5 resource gap over us, and Crum was holding on too long. It was a unique situation where UC could be King of the block.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - bearcatlawjd2 - 03-31-2018 10:33 AM
(03-31-2018 10:16 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote: I think the biggest difference between now and Huggins' run is that the regional competition is much harder today. In the 90s Xavier was a good program but not elite, more similar to Dayton than what they are now. UK was up and down. OSU was garbage for much of the decade. Louisville didn't have the P5 resource gap over us, and Crum was holding on too long. It was a unique situation where UC could be King of the block.
I have said that UC is now in the high rent district of college basketball. Outside of Indiana every other regional program has advanced their program in the past 20 years. Ohio State, Louisville, and Xavier have seen significant improvement across the board. Dayton has had its moments but might be on the way down. Kentucky continues to be elite. Even programs like NKU and Wright State are in a better spot today than they were 20 years ago.
Back in the 1990's the regional rankings went something like this:
1. Kentucky
2. Indiana
3. Cincinnati
4. Louisville
5. Xavier
6. Ohio State
7. Dayton
Today I would rank the program in their current state as
1. Kentucky
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State (Big Ten Money)
4. Cincinnati
5. Xavier (before Mack left they would have three)
6. Indiana (Still a mess)
7. Dayton
The big difference is the gap between the top 2 and everyone else is huge. Ohio State has so many structural advantages it is hard to put them behind the other regional schools no matter what their final record is. Xavier is really one bad hire away from dropping back to where they used to be or worse. Cincinnati continues to be steady, not elite, always good.
20 years ago, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Kentucky were borderline elite programs. Only Kentucky is still in that group. Now, Louisville has joined them and Ohio State has been close at times.
Cincinnati is an all time top 15 program that is currently producing season is in the 12-25 range. In my view this is right where Cincinnati should be based on the regional and national landscape in the sport.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - cincy11 - 03-31-2018 11:27 AM
(03-31-2018 10:16 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote: I think the biggest difference between now and Huggins' run is that the regional competition is much harder today. In the 90s Xavier was a good program but not elite, more similar to Dayton than what they are now. UK was up and down. OSU was garbage for much of the decade. Louisville didn't have the P5 resource gap over us, and Crum was holding on too long. It was a unique situation where UC could be King of the block.
Very good point.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Bearcat01 - 03-31-2018 11:29 AM
(03-31-2018 10:33 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:(03-31-2018 10:16 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote: I think the biggest difference between now and Huggins' run is that the regional competition is much harder today. In the 90s Xavier was a good program but not elite, more similar to Dayton than what they are now. UK was up and down. OSU was garbage for much of the decade. Louisville didn't have the P5 resource gap over us, and Crum was holding on too long. It was a unique situation where UC could be King of the block.
I have said that UC is now in the high rent district of college basketball. Outside of Indiana every other regional program has advanced their program in the past 20 years. Ohio State, Louisville, and Xavier have seen significant improvement across the board. Dayton has had its moments but might be on the way down. Kentucky continues to be elite. Even programs like NKU and Wright State are in a better spot today than they were 20 years ago.
Back in the 1990's the regional rankings went something like this:
1. Kentucky
2. Indiana
3. Cincinnati
4. Louisville
5. Xavier
6. Ohio State
7. Dayton
Today I would rank the program in their current state as
1. Kentucky
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State (Big Ten Money)
4. Cincinnati
5. Xavier (before Mack left they would have three)
6. Indiana (Still a mess)
7. Dayton
The big difference is the gap between the top 2 and everyone else is huge. Ohio State has so many structural advantages it is hard to put them behind the other regional schools no matter what their final record is. Xavier is really one bad hire away from dropping back to where they used to be or worse. Cincinnati continues to be steady, not elite, always good.
20 years ago, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Kentucky were borderline elite programs. Only Kentucky is still in that group. Now, Louisville has joined them and Ohio State has been close at times.
Cincinnati is an all time top 15 program that is currently producing season is in the 12-25 range. In my view this is right where Cincinnati should be based on the regional and national landscape in the sport.
where does cincinnati stack up against middle of pack p5 teams? we should be getting recruits equal or better than these teams every year. No way Vandy in region should ever out recruit UC in basketball.
BiG10
michigan
ohio st
indiana
purdue
acc
syracuse
virginia
nc state
florida st
sec
vandy
auburn
miss st
alabama
georgia
texas am
big12
wvu
Oklahoma
ok st
texas
iowa st
Kansas St
pac12
usc
oregon
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Bearcat01 - 03-31-2018 11:35 AM
when last time we had coach over 6'5 that could coach our bigs some post moves? Mick told all top players come let 61yr old coach that never played one day of professional ball develop them into nba players, LMAO.
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - Lush - 03-31-2018 12:55 PM
(03-31-2018 11:29 AM)Bearcat01 Wrote:(03-31-2018 10:33 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:(03-31-2018 10:16 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote: I think the biggest difference between now and Huggins' run is that the regional competition is much harder today. In the 90s Xavier was a good program but not elite, more similar to Dayton than what they are now. UK was up and down. OSU was garbage for much of the decade. Louisville didn't have the P5 resource gap over us, and Crum was holding on too long. It was a unique situation where UC could be King of the block.
I have said that UC is now in the high rent district of college basketball. Outside of Indiana every other regional program has advanced their program in the past 20 years. Ohio State, Louisville, and Xavier have seen significant improvement across the board. Dayton has had its moments but might be on the way down. Kentucky continues to be elite. Even programs like NKU and Wright State are in a better spot today than they were 20 years ago.
Back in the 1990's the regional rankings went something like this:
1. Kentucky
2. Indiana
3. Cincinnati
4. Louisville
5. Xavier
6. Ohio State
7. Dayton
Today I would rank the program in their current state as
1. Kentucky
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State (Big Ten Money)
4. Cincinnati
5. Xavier (before Mack left they would have three)
6. Indiana (Still a mess)
7. Dayton
The big difference is the gap between the top 2 and everyone else is huge. Ohio State has so many structural advantages it is hard to put them behind the other regional schools no matter what their final record is. Xavier is really one bad hire away from dropping back to where they used to be or worse. Cincinnati continues to be steady, not elite, always good.
20 years ago, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Kentucky were borderline elite programs. Only Kentucky is still in that group. Now, Louisville has joined them and Ohio State has been close at times.
Cincinnati is an all time top 15 program that is currently producing season is in the 12-25 range. In my view this is right where Cincinnati should be based on the regional and national landscape in the sport.
where does cincinnati stack up against middle of pack p5 teams? we should be getting recruits equal or better than these teams every year. No way Vandy in region should ever out recruit UC in basketball.
BiG10
michigan
ohio st
indiana
purdue
acc
syracuse
virginia
nc state
florida st
sec
vandy
auburn
miss st
alabama
georgia
texas am
big12
wvu
Oklahoma
ok st
texas
iowa st
Kansas St
pac12
usc
oregon
with cronin as coach i'd say pretty favorably
RE: Realistic Expectations for BB going forward (next 10 years) - RealDeal - 03-31-2018 01:31 PM
(03-31-2018 10:16 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote: UK was up and down.
They won two national titles and played in a couple more final fours. The 90s is probably their best decade in the last 40 years.