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My revised AAC predictions - Moody Magic - 12-14-2017 11:39 PM
with OOC almost over.
1. Cincy - they always seem to struggle against Xavier for whatever reason but I think Cronin is the best coach in our conference and his team is built for the grind.
2T SMU - we are a good team now, with McMurray we can be a very good team. Chargois might be the freshman in the AAC.
2T WSU - after getting to see Shamet play several games, he is as good as advertised. I think the tougher conference schedule gets to WSU and they struggle late in conference play.
4. Temple - the GW loss gives me a lot of pause, and I expected a much better effort against Nova, but I still think Temple is a tourney team.
5. Houston - the hogs win was very impressive. Gray can go off any night. Will beat Cincy and/or WSU once, and they will lose one they shouldn’t.
6. UCF - injuries suck. Fall is the most intriguing player in the AAC. If Taylor comes back 100% they can be a factor.
7. UConn - they have a lot of talent but Ollie can’t coach. Will the players give a damn? I’m on the fence.
8. Memphis - the fact that there is thread on this board debating if Memphis is a basketball or football school says it all. Sad. Memphis is, and always will be a basketball school.
8. Tulane - I really want to like your team but every time I do you disappoint me. I’m giving Dunleavy one more year.
9. Tulsa
10. USF
11. ECU
RE: My revised AAC predictions - AndShock - 12-14-2017 11:40 PM
RE: My revised AAC predictions - AndShock - 12-14-2017 11:42 PM
1. WSU
2. Cincy
3. SMU
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. UCONN
8. Tulane
9. Memphis
10. Tulsa
11. ECU
12. USF
RE: My revised AAC predictions - PirateTreasureNC - 12-14-2017 11:44 PM
With ECU's turn around after Perry took over might change my lookout for the rest of the season. It will be interesting to see what happens next week after a week and half off and Perry working on some offensive and defensive schemes of his own design with the players currently playing. I know AAC conference competition will be a major upgrade to who we have been playing but we aren't in the position to apologize for any kind of win we get.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - C0|db|00ded - 12-14-2017 11:45 PM
(12-14-2017 11:39 PM)Moody Magic Wrote: with OOC almost over.
1. Cincy - they always seem to struggle against Xavier for whatever reason but I think Cronin is the best coach in our conference and his team is built for the grind.
2T SMU - we are a good team now, with McMurray we can be a very good team. Chargois might be the freshman in the AAC.
2T WSU - after getting to see Shamet play several games, he is as good as advertised. I think the tougher conference schedule gets to WSU and they struggle late in conference play.
4. Temple - the GW loss gives me a lot of pause, and I expected a much better effort against Nova, but I still think Temple is a tourney team.
5. Houston - the hogs win was very impressive. Gray can go off any night. Will beat Cincy and/or WSU once, and they will lose one they shouldn’t.
6. UCF - injuries suck. Fall is the most intriguing player in the AAC. If Taylor comes back 100% they can be a factor.
7. UConn - they have a lot of talent but Ollie can’t coach. Will the players give a damn? I’m on the fence.
8. Memphis - the fact that there is thread on this board debating if Memphis is a basketball or football school says it all. Sad. Memphis is, and always will be a basketball school.
8. Tulane - I really want to like your team but every time I do you disappoint me. I’m giving Dunleavy one more year.
9. Tulsa
10. USF
11. ECU
T
...
RE: My revised AAC predictions - ShockerFever - 12-15-2017 01:25 AM
Might as well just say Tim Jankovich is the best coach in the AAC.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - BrooklynRocket - 12-15-2017 06:47 AM
If Cincy wins at UCLA Saturday then they've officially turned the corner and the rest of the league should be concerned.
If they lose then 2nd place may as well be up for grabs.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - Bearcats#1 - 12-15-2017 07:51 AM
(12-15-2017 06:47 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote: If Cincy wins at UCLA Saturday then they've officially turned the corner and the rest of the league should be concerned.
If they lose then 2nd place may as well be up for grabs.
I'm not sure I agree with this on a couple different levels...
Beating UCLA this year at UCLA is a nice win, but it's not a great win. Their RPI and Kenpom are fair, not good. So beating them doesn't really mean we've turned the corner IMO.
Also, Wichita State is a great team and without a starter still.
Bottom line, we could go in and crush UCLA and I don't think it proves a whole lot other than gives us a solid (not great) win on the road vs a traditional blue blood.
We are getting close to 'you are who you are' right now and to me UC looks like a team that will finish 2 or 3 in the conference at best. This puts us as somewhere between 5 and 7 seed me thinks. Depends on how the AAC and conference SOS shapes out.
WSU however looks like a 1 or 2 seed at worst.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - stever20 - 12-15-2017 08:06 AM
looking at Ken Pom- just raw w/l projection....
1 Wichita 17-1
2 Cincy 16-2
3 SMU 14-4
4 Houston 12-6
5 Temple 11-7
6 UCF 8-10
7 Tulsa 8-10
8 Tulane 7-11
9 Memphis 7-11
10 UConn 6-12
11 USF 1-17
12 ECU 1-17
before Uconn folks go crazy- the reason why they're that low is schedule. UConn only plays USF and Tulane once. They're only projected to beat ECU away from home. They get all 4 reasonlably likely tourney teams at home(which will be really tough).
RE: My revised AAC predictions - Tiger1983 - 12-15-2017 08:27 AM
As of today, I expect UCF improvement when they get B.J. Taylor back.
1. WSU
2. Cincy
3. SMU
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. UCONN
8. Tulane
9. Tulsa
10. Memphis
11. ECU
12. USF
RE: My revised AAC predictions - HuskyU - 12-15-2017 08:47 AM
1. Houston (Rob Gray is God)
2. UCF (Unstoppable with BJ back)
3. Tulsa (Will finish 3rd)
4. Wichita State (Shamet is meh)
5. Cincinnati (Feasts on cupcakes, Loses to teams with a pulse)
6. Temple (Wins vs top half of the league, Losses vs bottom half)
7. SMU (Couldn't beat OOC mid-majors, Won't beat AAC mid-majors)
8. ECU (Best finish in school history - Pirates hang a banner)
9 Tulane ()
10. Memphis (#FireTubby)
11. UCONN (#FireOllie)
12. USF (#DisbandTheProgram)
RE: My revised AAC predictions - Hurricane Drummer - 12-15-2017 09:12 AM
(12-15-2017 08:47 AM)HuskyU Wrote: 1. Houston (Rob Gray is God)
2. UCF (Unstoppable with BJ back)
3. Tulsa (Will finish 3rd)
4. Wichita State (Shamet is meh)
5. Cincinnati (Feasts on cupcakes, Loses to teams with a pulse)
6. Temple (Wins vs top half of the league, Losses vs bottom half)
7. SMU (Couldn't beat OOC mid-majors, Won't beat AAC mid-majors)
8. ECU (Best finish in school history - Pirates hang a banner)
9 Tulane ()
10. Memphis (#FireTubby)
11. UCONN (#FireOllie)
12. USF (#DisbandTheProgram)
Finally, somebody with some sense in this thread.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - stever20 - 12-15-2017 09:33 AM
so looking at Ken Pom- with those just binary w/l projections...
1 Wichita 17-1- would be overall a 28-2 record if they beat Oklahoma- 3.4 RPI. 27-3 if they lose to Oklahoma 5.0 RPI
2 Cincy 16-2- would be overall a 27-4 record if they beat UCLA- 13.1 RPI. 26-5 if they lose to UCLA 17.1 RPI
3 SMU 14-4- would be overall a 24-7 record. 24.3 RPI.
4 Houston 12-6- would be overall a 22-8 record if they beat Providence- 38.0 RPI. 21-9 if they lose to Providence- 46.5 RPI
5 Temple 11-7- would be overall a 20-10 record if they beat Georgia- 23.8 RPI. 19-11 if they lose to Georgia- 30.3 RPI
If Houston and Temple can win those OOC games, and the final league standings are as projected, 5 I think isn't just possible, it's probable.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - stxrunner - 12-15-2017 09:34 AM
(12-15-2017 07:51 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:(12-15-2017 06:47 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote: If Cincy wins at UCLA Saturday then they've officially turned the corner and the rest of the league should be concerned.
If they lose then 2nd place may as well be up for grabs.
I'm not sure I agree with this on a couple different levels...
Beating UCLA this year at UCLA is a nice win, but it's not a great win. Their RPI and Kenpom are fair, not good. So beating them doesn't really mean we've turned the corner IMO.
Also, Wichita State is a great team and without a starter still.
Bottom line, we could go in and crush UCLA and I don't think it proves a whole lot other than gives us a solid (not great) win on the road vs a traditional blue blood.
We are getting close to 'you are who you are' right now and to me UC looks like a team that will finish 2 or 3 in the conference at best. This puts us as somewhere between 5 and 7 seed me thinks. Depends on how the AAC and conference SOS shapes out.
WSU however looks like a 1 or 2 seed at worst.
I know it's popular to be all self deprecating right now as a UC fan, but I don't see a way UC doesn't finish in at least second in the conference.
Beating UCLA on the road is a better win than you give credit for. It's roughly equivalent to winning a neutral site game against SMU/Louisville/Florida St in the eyes of the metrics.
My predictions:
1) Wichita St
2) UC
3) SMU
4) Houston
5) Temple
6) UCF
7) UConn
8) Tulane
9) Memphis
10) ECU
11) Tulsa
12) USF
RE: My revised AAC predictions - stxrunner - 12-15-2017 09:37 AM
(12-15-2017 09:33 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at Ken Pom- with those just binary w/l projections...
1 Wichita 17-1- would be overall a 28-2 record if they beat Oklahoma- 3.4 RPI. 27-3 if they lose to Oklahoma 5.0 RPI
2 Cincy 16-2- would be overall a 27-4 record if they beat UCLA- 13.1 RPI. 26-5 if they lose to UCLA 17.1 RPI
3 SMU 14-4- would be overall a 24-7 record. 24.3 RPI.
4 Houston 12-6- would be overall a 22-8 record if they beat Providence- 38.0 RPI. 21-9 if they lose to Providence- 46.5 RPI
5 Temple 11-7- would be overall a 20-10 record if they beat Georgia- 23.8 RPI. 19-11 if they lose to Georgia- 30.3 RPI
If Houston and Temple can win those OOC games, and the final league standings are as projected, 5 I think isn't just possible, it's probable.
That Houston game against Providence is just absolutely critical for their tourney chances. A 12-6 record in the AAC will get them in the tourney with that win. Without it, I think they need to go 14-4 just about.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - stever20 - 12-15-2017 09:44 AM
(12-15-2017 09:37 AM)stxrunner Wrote:(12-15-2017 09:33 AM)stever20 Wrote: so looking at Ken Pom- with those just binary w/l projections...
1 Wichita 17-1- would be overall a 28-2 record if they beat Oklahoma- 3.4 RPI. 27-3 if they lose to Oklahoma 5.0 RPI
2 Cincy 16-2- would be overall a 27-4 record if they beat UCLA- 13.1 RPI. 26-5 if they lose to UCLA 17.1 RPI
3 SMU 14-4- would be overall a 24-7 record. 24.3 RPI.
4 Houston 12-6- would be overall a 22-8 record if they beat Providence- 38.0 RPI. 21-9 if they lose to Providence- 46.5 RPI
5 Temple 11-7- would be overall a 20-10 record if they beat Georgia- 23.8 RPI. 19-11 if they lose to Georgia- 30.3 RPI
If Houston and Temple can win those OOC games, and the final league standings are as projected, 5 I think isn't just possible, it's probable.
That Houston game against Providence is just absolutely critical for their tourney chances. A 12-6 record in the AAC will get them in the tourney with that win. Without it, I think they need to go 14-4 just about.
just looking maybe not. The 6 projected conference losses for Houston- 2 each vs Wichita and Cincy, and then road losses to Temple and SMU. If they were to lose to Providence, but then for sure beat either Wichita or Cincy- that would be enough.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - cscottl1981 - 12-15-2017 09:46 AM
Glad to see that cheating and losing their coach did not destroy what they have going at SMU. They've had some pretty good teams as of late. It would be nice to see them win a game in the NCAA tournament.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - Pony94 - 12-15-2017 09:51 AM
(12-15-2017 09:46 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote: Glad to see that cheating and losing their coach did not destroy what they have going at SMU. They've had some pretty good teams as of late. It would be nice to see them win a game in the NCAA tournament.
Yes yes, we feed off hate. Let it flow.
RE: My revised AAC predictions - C0|db|00ded - 12-15-2017 10:01 AM
(12-15-2017 07:51 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:(12-15-2017 06:47 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote: If Cincy wins at UCLA Saturday then they've officially turned the corner and the rest of the league should be concerned.
If they lose then 2nd place may as well be up for grabs.
I'm not sure I agree with this on a couple different levels...
Beating UCLA this year at UCLA is a nice win, but it's not a great win. Their RPI and Kenpom are fair, not good. So beating them doesn't really mean we've turned the corner IMO.
Also, Wichita State is a great team and without a starter still.
Bottom line, we could go in and crush UCLA and I don't think it proves a whole lot other than gives us a solid (not great) win on the road vs a traditional blue blood.
We are getting close to 'you are who you are' right now and to me UC looks like a team that will finish 2 or 3 in the conference at best. This puts us as somewhere between 5 and 7 seed me thinks. Depends on how the AAC and conference SOS shapes out.
WSU however looks like a 1 or 2 seed at worst.
Wow, you are reformed! Peace be with you. Namaste.
T
...
RE: My revised AAC predictions - pesik - 12-15-2017 10:18 AM
the thing about houston is we are so heavily reliant on 3, (long 2's for devin davis) you never know what you are getting each game depending on who's hot.
rob at this point seems to the only regular source of consistent inside game (devin against smaller teams too)..but its been like that for a while now
luckily we are hot most games than not...we'll beat a couple teams we shouldn't, lose some we should win...