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+----- Thread: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** (/thread-831774.html)
Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - flash3200 - 10-30-2017 03:13 PM
Vegas pts line: UAB -11.5;
Vegas Moneyline: UAB -427; Rice +363
Vegas O/U: 50
UAB has played a much easier schedule including wins against a bottom dwelling FCS team in Alabama A&M and bottom 5 FBS Coastal Carolina. Against more reasonable competition, they have benefited from their opponents mistakes (LaTech missed PAT & blocked 30yd FG) and excellent second half defense (SoMiss and MidTenn only scored 3 pts in 2nd half). On the bad side, UAB quit in their game against Charlotte (!) to lose in OT, quit in the 4th quarter in a winnable game against a bad Ball State team, and appear to be susceptible to big plays on special teams and defense. Despite this being UAB's first year "back" to FBS, they do not appear to be on any sort of clear trajectory upwards, but are merely adept at keeping games competitive and being opportunistic against similar competition.
Rice's offensive trajectory is clearly up at this point, but Rice continues to turn the ball over at an astounding rate (currently 2nd from last in FBS with a -18 TO margin). Rice has played a much tougher OOC schedule than UAB and as a result Rice has "participated" in 4 games this season that were simply noncompetitive by any measure. In the other 4 competitive games, Rice played a full 60 minutes against UTEP for a boring W (2 possession lead for final 41+ minutes), had 9 yards and 4 downs to beat FIU (but failed), undermined by TOs against UTSA but otherwise competitive, and could not buy a defensive stop in a close game against a decent LaTech offense. Outside of the persistent turnovers, Rice performs at a very similar level to UAB against similar competition.
Rice appears to be value in this game as I think this match-up is essentially even based on the teams' performance against similar opponents. UAB's primary advantage is that they have 8 full games of competitive action and they should acquitted themselves well in high leverage situations for the most part. Rice has a lot of question marks, but most of the risk for Rice at this point is upside risk (Can the offense continue to improve? Will the TO deficit be mitigated?).
UAB should be hungry to get the 6th win and lock up a bowl victory, but I think Rice is just as hungry to go out and get a second W. The result of this game will hinge on Rice winning the TO battle for the first time this season, but I am optimistic that our QB position (the source of all of the devastating TOs this season) will play with a bit more confidence and acumen which should translate into fewer TOs. Rice should benefit from superior field position from the kicking & return game and our defensive scheme should be adequate. Rice has the ability to capitalize on UAB's big play risk as well.
Prediction: Rice catches UAB looking ahead in the schedule and racks up a 24-20 win on the road. At a minimum, Rice +11.5 looks like great value as this should be a close game regardless of final outcome.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - NoodleOwl - 10-30-2017 03:22 PM
For absolutely no purpose but Internet bragging points, Rice has the opportunity to re-enter the CFB Imperialism Map this week for the first time since losing our initial territory to Stanford.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/79nb18/week_9_college_football_imperialism_map/
(This is the first time since the Stanford game that an opponent actually has territory to take by the time we play them.)
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Antarius - 10-30-2017 03:27 PM
If Rice were to win this, it would be only the 5th game of Bailiff's 11 year tenure where Rice won a game as a TD or greater underdog.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Antarius - 10-30-2017 03:31 PM
Also the only common opponent was LaTech. UAB beat them by 1, while we lost by 14.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - mrbig - 10-30-2017 03:52 PM
Rice has been a turnover machine and UAB's defense looks better than LaTech's defense. Perhaps Rice breaks double-digit points for the 3rd time this season, but I think UAB holds Rice below 20 and I don't think Rice holds UAB below 20. So I will go with UAB 30, Rice 13. Part of UAB's score is attributable to either its defense, special teams, or Rice turning the ball over deep in its own territory (meaning Rice's defense plays OK).
Defensive rankings for UAB/LaTech:
ESPN defensive efficiency: 90/98
Defensive scoring: 67/78
Run defense (ypc): 59/106
Run defense (ypg): 63/86
Pass defense (ypa): 27/42
Pass defense (ypg): 41/71
Pass defense (opponent's rating): 27/43
TFL: 31/120
In fairness, LaTech's defense has been better at creating turnovers and getting sacks. But I don't see a path to 20+ points for Rice, barring something that breaks the mold for what we have witnessed so far in 2017. Of course, perhaps something clicked in the 2nd half against LaTech and the offense will continue to show improved ability to move the ball. But scoring 21 points and gaining 263 yards in the 2nd half is an aberration until proven otherwise.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - flash3200 - 10-30-2017 03:55 PM
(10-30-2017 03:31 PM)Antarius Wrote: Also the only common opponent was LaTech. UAB beat them by 1, while we lost by 14.
I'll admit a prediction to win is bold, but losing by less than 11.5 points is highly probable. The fact we are 11.5 dogs to UAB is crazy based on UAB's schedule, so maybe this is how we improve on Bailiff's underdog+ records.
LaTech botched a chip-in FG to win against UAB with 0:00 left on the clock and would have been going to OT in any case if they had not just missed a PAT on the prior drive. We tied LaTech with 4 minutes to go and the game was not in hand until 36 seconds to go, so the final margin of 14 doesn't tell the whole story. Hard for me to see a compelling reason that this game won't be a single possession game the entire way outside of an Army-style TO bonanza. I give the edge to Rice since on paper Rice looks terrible and UAB has played down to bad competition this year (they didn't put away Alabama A&M until the 4th quarter, loss to Charlotte, etc.) and committed several mental mistakes throughout the season (to match our TO tendencies).
Seeing Rice fight back a little in the LaTech game raises my expectation that they will want to sniff out at least a couple of wins for the rest of the schedule. UAB is perhaps the best mark on the schedule to pull this off and UAB is a team prone to look ahead.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Antarius - 10-30-2017 04:10 PM
(10-30-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote: Rice has been a turnover machine and UAB's defense looks better than LaTech's defense. Perhaps Rice breaks double-digit points for the 3rd time this season, but I think UAB holds Rice below 20 and I don't think Rice holds UAB below 20. So I will go with UAB 30, Rice 13. Part of UAB's score is attributable to either its defense, special teams, or Rice turning the ball over deep in its own territory (meaning Rice's defense plays OK).
Defensive rankings for UAB/LaTech:
ESPN defensive efficiency: 90/98
Defensive scoring: 67/78
Run defense (ypc): 59/106
Run defense (ypg): 63/86
Pass defense (ypa): 27/42
Pass defense (ypg): 41/71
Pass defense (opponent's rating): 27/43
TFL: 31/120
In fairness, LaTech's defense has been better at creating turnovers and getting sacks. But I don't see a path to 20+ points for Rice, barring something that breaks the mold for what we have witnessed so far in 2017. Of course, perhaps something clicked in the 2nd half against LaTech and the offense will continue to show improved ability to move the ball. But scoring 21 points and gaining 263 yards in the 2nd half is an aberration until proven otherwise.
You missed a key Metric. Number of EZFs. UAB : 0, LaTech : 1
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Antarius - 10-30-2017 04:12 PM
(10-30-2017 03:55 PM)flash3200 Wrote:(10-30-2017 03:31 PM)Antarius Wrote: Also the only common opponent was LaTech. UAB beat them by 1, while we lost by 14.
I'll admit a prediction to win is bold, but losing by less than 11.5 points is highly probable. The fact we are 11.5 dogs to UAB is crazy based on UAB's schedule, so maybe this is how we improve on Bailiff's underdog+ records.
LaTech botched a chip-in FG to win against UAB with 0:00 left on the clock and would have been going to OT in any case if they had not just missed a PAT on the prior drive. We tied LaTech with 4 minutes to go and the game was not in hand until 36 seconds to go, so the final margin of 14 doesn't tell the whole story. Hard for me to see a compelling reason that this game won't be a single possession game the entire way outside of an Army-style TO bonanza. I give the edge to Rice since on paper Rice looks terrible and UAB has played down to bad competition this year (they didn't put away Alabama A&M until the 4th quarter, loss to Charlotte, etc.) and committed several mental mistakes throughout the season (to match our TO tendencies).
Seeing Rice fight back a little in the LaTech game raises my expectation that they will want to sniff out at least a couple of wins for the rest of the schedule. UAB is perhaps the best mark on the schedule to pull this off and UAB is a team prone to look ahead.
UAB is also 4-0 at home this year.
Why would you say UAB is a team prone to look ahead? Based on?
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - ExcitedOwl18 - 10-30-2017 04:21 PM
(10-30-2017 04:10 PM)Antarius Wrote:(10-30-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote: Rice has been a turnover machine and UAB's defense looks better than LaTech's defense. Perhaps Rice breaks double-digit points for the 3rd time this season, but I think UAB holds Rice below 20 and I don't think Rice holds UAB below 20. So I will go with UAB 30, Rice 13. Part of UAB's score is attributable to either its defense, special teams, or Rice turning the ball over deep in its own territory (meaning Rice's defense plays OK).
Defensive rankings for UAB/LaTech:
ESPN defensive efficiency: 90/98
Defensive scoring: 67/78
Run defense (ypc): 59/106
Run defense (ypg): 63/86
Pass defense (ypa): 27/42
Pass defense (ypg): 41/71
Pass defense (opponent's rating): 27/43
TFL: 31/120
In fairness, LaTech's defense has been better at creating turnovers and getting sacks. But I don't see a path to 20+ points for Rice, barring something that breaks the mold for what we have witnessed so far in 2017. Of course, perhaps something clicked in the 2nd half against LaTech and the offense will continue to show improved ability to move the ball. But scoring 21 points and gaining 263 yards in the 2nd half is an aberration until proven otherwise.
You missed a key Metric. Number of EZFs. UAB : 0, LaTech : 1
I guess it not technically in their end zone, but they do have a very nice facility.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=935u4QE60oM
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - flash3200 - 10-30-2017 04:22 PM
(10-30-2017 04:12 PM)Antarius Wrote:(10-30-2017 03:55 PM)flash3200 Wrote:(10-30-2017 03:31 PM)Antarius Wrote: Also the only common opponent was LaTech. UAB beat them by 1, while we lost by 14.
I'll admit a prediction to win is bold, but losing by less than 11.5 points is highly probable. The fact we are 11.5 dogs to UAB is crazy based on UAB's schedule, so maybe this is how we improve on Bailiff's underdog+ records.
LaTech botched a chip-in FG to win against UAB with 0:00 left on the clock and would have been going to OT in any case if they had not just missed a PAT on the prior drive. We tied LaTech with 4 minutes to go and the game was not in hand until 36 seconds to go, so the final margin of 14 doesn't tell the whole story. Hard for me to see a compelling reason that this game won't be a single possession game the entire way outside of an Army-style TO bonanza. I give the edge to Rice since on paper Rice looks terrible and UAB has played down to bad competition this year (they didn't put away Alabama A&M until the 4th quarter, loss to Charlotte, etc.) and committed several mental mistakes throughout the season (to match our TO tendencies).
Seeing Rice fight back a little in the LaTech game raises my expectation that they will want to sniff out at least a couple of wins for the rest of the schedule. UAB is perhaps the best mark on the schedule to pull this off and UAB is a team prone to look ahead.
UAB is also 4-0 at home this year.
Why would you say UAB is a team prone to look ahead? Based on?
Gagging with their game at Charlotte and struggles against Alabama A&M and Coastal Carolina. Red flags for me.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Neely's Ghost - 10-30-2017 04:53 PM
If UAB is smart enough to play zone and have DB's in a position to rally into run support, the Owls are in trouble... Chasing in man to man coverage and following false keys is why the Owls hit big plays and were able to run all day against La TEch... But that's the catch isn't it. Conference USA might not have the cats on defense to just "sit in box loaded" defenses".. hence the Owls offense is projecting up.... I am very much "he of little faith", but I'll nibble on this one. Owls pull off the upset and cover the spread..
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - chrisc - 10-30-2017 05:03 PM
(10-30-2017 04:21 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:(10-30-2017 04:10 PM)Antarius Wrote:(10-30-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote: Rice has been a turnover machine and UAB's defense looks better than LaTech's defense. Perhaps Rice breaks double-digit points for the 3rd time this season, but I think UAB holds Rice below 20 and I don't think Rice holds UAB below 20. So I will go with UAB 30, Rice 13. Part of UAB's score is attributable to either its defense, special teams, or Rice turning the ball over deep in its own territory (meaning Rice's defense plays OK).
Defensive rankings for UAB/LaTech:
ESPN defensive efficiency: 90/98
Defensive scoring: 67/78
Run defense (ypc): 59/106
Run defense (ypg): 63/86
Pass defense (ypa): 27/42
Pass defense (ypg): 41/71
Pass defense (opponent's rating): 27/43
TFL: 31/120
In fairness, LaTech's defense has been better at creating turnovers and getting sacks. But I don't see a path to 20+ points for Rice, barring something that breaks the mold for what we have witnessed so far in 2017. Of course, perhaps something clicked in the 2nd half against LaTech and the offense will continue to show improved ability to move the ball. But scoring 21 points and gaining 263 yards in the 2nd half is an aberration until proven otherwise.
You missed a key Metric. Number of EZFs. UAB : 0, LaTech : 1
I guess it not technically in their end zone, but they do have a very nice facility.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=935u4QE60oM
Looks like it's in the "end zone" of their baseball stadium? Seriously though, the covered open-air practice field is nice. Here's the URL for an overview of the facility: http://www.uab.edu/footballfacility/
![[Image: scope01.jpg]](http://www.uab.edu/footballfacility/images/overview/scope01.jpg)
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - greyowl72 - 10-30-2017 05:08 PM
Flash... love your posts on this thread. I think Optmistic Owl may have found a protege. And I mean that in a very positive way. Sincerely.
In fact, your upbeat assessment of the 2017 season has made me a bit more optimistic myself.
So, maybe I should predict an upset....
Nah..
UAB 28 Rice 15
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - flash3200 - 10-30-2017 10:48 PM
(10-30-2017 05:08 PM)greyowl72 Wrote: Flash... love your posts on this thread. I think Optmistic Owl may have found a protege. And I mean that in a very positive way. Sincerely.
In fact, your upbeat assessment of the 2017 season has made me a bit more optimistic myself.
So, maybe I should predict an upset....
Nah..
UAB 28 Rice 15
I still support this as being a great candidate for the worst ever season in the history of Rice football, but we have played 4 modestly competitive games against the cotton-balls of the CUSA and UAB is just another cotton-ball. Also, snagging a win at UAB will not materially change the trajectory of this season. UAB's resume has a lot of holes in it, so why not roll the dice for a W this week.
I would rate Rice's not covering of the double digit spread against this UAB team as a new low in the catastrophic outcome index for this season. I doubt the typical Vegas handle on Rice/CUSA matchup is very large and these point spreads are almost verbatim from the computer rankings per the low betting interest (ie value can be found!). I typically stick my neck out a couple times a year to disagree with Vegas with an amount of confidence in excess of the vig, and this is one of them.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Ourland - 10-31-2017 01:14 AM
It looks like UAB is playing well at home.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - McHargue - 10-31-2017 08:31 AM
UAB has a similar reverse home field advantage like we do, stadium is massive and 90% empty. It's actually a pretty tough place to play.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - McHargue - 10-31-2017 08:56 AM
The NCAA also allowed UAB to bring kids in under the normal academic standard to get back on track so that explains some of the success. We still shouldn't be 2 score dogs to a program that just came back from the dead though.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - OptimisticOwl - 10-31-2017 09:22 AM
I am not betting on Rice to win or cover.
I am not betting against Rice.
I am not betting.
I am rooting for Rice to win.
Go Owls!
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - Antarius - 10-31-2017 10:05 AM
(10-31-2017 08:56 AM)McHargue Wrote: The NCAA also allowed UAB to bring kids in under the normal academic standard to get back on track so that explains some of the success. We still shouldn't be 2 score dogs to a program that just came back from the dead though.
Agreed. We were 12 point underdogs to Charlotte last year though - that was worse.
RE: Rice @ UAB *** Pre-Game Thread *** - westsidewolf1989 - 10-31-2017 10:13 AM
(10-31-2017 08:31 AM)McHargue Wrote: UAB has a similar reverse home field advantage like we do, stadium is massive and 90% empty. It's actually a pretty tough place to play.
Sure, four or five years ago it definitely was 90% empty, but they've averaged a little over 30,000 per game over four games this season (a little over 25,000 if you take out the first home game, which had 45K).