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RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 12:54 PM
(06-21-2017 12:44 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Sale has had a couple of good games after 4-5 stinkers/mediocre outings, so I'd say he's back in control of his destiny. But Vargas looks like the dark horse if Keuchel can't stay off the DL and Sale slides back. Santana probably still in the running for the time being but his trend says otherwise.
Sale though even in those couple of good games- still had 4 starts in June and in 3 of those 4 starts he's given up 3 runs in each start. His June ERA is 3.07. His season ERA is 2.85 now. I wouldn't say he's in control of his destiny yet by any stretch, Keuchel comes back next week and has 3 good starts, he could be like 11-1 or something at the break with a sub 2 ERA.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 01:12 PM
going back to what we were talking about with Kluber...
look at Sale's splits this year-
in 9 wins- 3.94 ERA. .207/.256/.352 slash. .608 OPS 15/86 bb/k ratio
in 3 losses- 1.90 ERA. .202/.227/.286 slash. .513 OPS 2/30 bb/k ratio
think I'd say that's a tad bit unusual.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 01:19 PM
(06-21-2017 12:45 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Scherzer pulling away in the NL.
yeah Scherzer right to the moment has a 2.11 ERA. 0.50 ahead of Kershaw. His FIP to the moment has a lead of 2.76 to 3.53. He keeps this up, he may be unanimous.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 06-21-2017 01:57 PM
(06-21-2017 10:38 AM)stever20 Wrote: Keuchel might be back next week. Sale's problem with him is that Keuchel can still make roughly 30 starts and qualify for the ERA title with around 180-190 innings. Sale would need Keuchel to struggle some to get his ERA up from where it is now to at least the 2.25 mark. And be able to pretty much match the number of wins that Keuchel has.
And Sale needs to be careful with Kluber quite frankly. If Kluber can pitch like he has this month consistently he's going to become a factor, especially if Sale struggles some.
But if Sale ends up with like 50-70 more innings it would give him an enormous advantage. Keuchel doesn't have a lot of room for error due to the games he missed
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 06-21-2017 02:02 PM
Where do you see that Keuchel is coming back next week? I read he just started throwing again and has no timetable
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 02:07 PM
(06-21-2017 01:57 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(06-21-2017 10:38 AM)stever20 Wrote: Keuchel might be back next week. Sale's problem with him is that Keuchel can still make roughly 30 starts and qualify for the ERA title with around 180-190 innings. Sale would need Keuchel to struggle some to get his ERA up from where it is now to at least the 2.25 mark. And be able to pretty much match the number of wins that Keuchel has.
And Sale needs to be careful with Kluber quite frankly. If Kluber can pitch like he has this month consistently he's going to become a factor, especially if Sale struggles some.
But if Sale ends up with like 50-70 more innings it would give him an enormous advantage. Keuchel doesn't have a lot of room for error due to the games he missed
I don't think voters really look at that too much. ERA and wins far more important to them.
Sale doesn't have room for error either. His ERA is 2.85. He has another bad outing or 2 and it's mid 3's. Eventually that gets too much to overcome.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 02:15 PM
(06-21-2017 02:02 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: Where do you see that Keuchel is coming back next week? I read he just started throwing again and has no timetable
saw it here-
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/31815/dallas-keuchel
might be back next week...
Thing is, if Keuchel can make 3 starts before the break- he'd have 14 starts before the break. 90 innings worth.
Sale also has only 3 starts left before the break. So he would have 18 starts before the break. 125 innings worth.
Where it's going to be interesting is that Keuchel would have had only 46 innings of work since April 30. Sale same period would have had close to double that. So Keuchel may be a whole lot fresher in July and August than Sale- which could really help him out considerably after the break. Also, Sale probably would start the all star game which may impact his 1st start after the break while Keuchel wouldn't have that.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 06-21-2017 06:19 PM
(06-21-2017 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:(06-21-2017 01:57 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(06-21-2017 10:38 AM)stever20 Wrote: Keuchel might be back next week. Sale's problem with him is that Keuchel can still make roughly 30 starts and qualify for the ERA title with around 180-190 innings. Sale would need Keuchel to struggle some to get his ERA up from where it is now to at least the 2.25 mark. And be able to pretty much match the number of wins that Keuchel has.
And Sale needs to be careful with Kluber quite frankly. If Kluber can pitch like he has this month consistently he's going to become a factor, especially if Sale struggles some.
But if Sale ends up with like 50-70 more innings it would give him an enormous advantage. Keuchel doesn't have a lot of room for error due to the games he missed
I don't think voters really look at that too much. ERA and wins far more important to them.
But Ks are meaningful and more innings for Sale will mean a lot more Ks. And if it's a significant difference in games started, Keuchel's results will get discounted. Let's face it, this isn't necessarily a conversation about who is the better pitcher, but who is most likely to get the most CY votes. Those are sometimes different pitchers.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 06-21-2017 07:34 PM
Listen, if Keuchel ends the season with 29 starts, an ERA under 2.00 and 18 wins, he'll almost definitely win. If his ERA is like 2.30 and Sale wins a similar amount of games with an ERA around 2.85, 290 K's and 30-40 more innings, then I'd think Sale would win. In that case the ERA difference is probably not big enough. So I really don't think Sale necessarily controls his destiny, but rather Keuchel controls it
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-21-2017 08:16 PM
I don't think voters look at 4-5 starts as being a huge difference. Just go back to 2014. Kershaw had 7 fewer starts and 50 fewer innings than Cueto did, but he was a unanimous top choice. So there is some precedent there for a guy with several fewer starts to win the award.
ERA is a far greater determinant in Cy Young voting. If Keuchel can finish sub 2 like swoosh said, it's going to be really tough for Sale to beat him, especially given he's pitching on a divisional winner.
Like was said a few years ago in the 2015 debate, it's not the Cy Whiff award. I think voters are kind of numb to huge k numbers quite frankly.
Thing right now- lets go to what swoosh's scenario was...
Keuchel- 29 starts 2.30 ERA. That would be 18 more starts. So lets say 6 innings per start or 108 more innings. Would put up to around 185 innings. 2.29 ERA at 185 innings would be 47 earned runs. So that would be 33 ER in 109.3 innings. 2.72 ERA.
Sale- 34 starts 2.85 ERA. That would be 2.85 ERA for remaining starts
I think Keuchel if he's healthy far more likely to pitch to a 2.72 ERA than Sale is 2.85. In Sale's career, his worst 2 months of the year are August and September. His Career numbers post all star break- a good half run worse than pre-all star break.
Last year after 15 starts he was 12-2 with a 2.83 ERA. He ended the season in 17 starts going only 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA. 2015 1st 15 2.87 last 16 3.93. Really only 2014 did he not fade, and that was because he missed some time early in the season. He also faded in 2013 and 2012. And would say, he's going to have thrown more innings pre July 1 this year than he has ever thrown before, so the fade chances IMO are very real.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 06-21-2017 11:16 PM
Sale is on track for 300+ Ks. That's a historic-level season. If he doesn't get injured there's a great chance he'll hit it. With that, and an ERA in the vicinity of Keuchel's (say, within 0.2 or so), I think he'd win.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 06-21-2017 11:23 PM
Terrible illustration of how bad Nat's pen is. Scherzer carries a no hitter into the 8th, loses it on a crappy infield single, then loads the bases for Stanton. Anybody else gets lifted but Baker doesn't trust his pen (I've seen this movie before in LA), and Scherzer proceeds to wild pitch a run in then gives up the go ahead (and eventually winning) run on a single. He finally gets out of the inning but threw 121 pitches to get there.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-22-2017 07:49 AM
(06-21-2017 11:16 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Sale is on track for 300+ Ks. That's a historic-level season. If he doesn't get injured there's a great chance he'll hit it. With that, and an ERA in the vicinity of Keuchel's (say, within 0.2 or so), I think he'd win.
You see, that's the thing. Keuchel has got to come back to Sale. If Keuchel keeps on at a sub 2 ERA, Sale has almost zero shot to get close enough. For Sale right now to finish with a 2.48 ERA even- he would need to rest of the season- in say 34 starts and lets say 225 innings- 62 earned runs. So right now he's given up 34 er in 107.1 innings. He would need to give up 28 er in 117.2 ip. That's a 2.14 ERA. I'm sorry, but right now, he's shown absolutely no indication that he can do that. His last 10 starts, he's pitched to a 3.75 ERA. Last 5 starts, it's 3.93.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-22-2017 08:40 AM
(06-21-2017 11:23 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Terrible illustration of how bad Nat's pen is. Scherzer carries a no hitter into the 8th, loses it on a crappy infield single, then loads the bases for Stanton. Anybody else gets lifted but Baker doesn't trust his pen (I've seen this movie before in LA), and Scherzer proceeds to wild pitch a run in then gives up the go ahead (and eventually winning) run on a single. He finally gets out of the inning but threw 121 pitches to get there.
Scherzer has done that same thing before and gotten out of it. Did it last year when the pen was a lot stronger. There's a lot greater examples of the Nats inept bullpen than yesterday.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 06-22-2017 09:33 AM
(06-22-2017 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:(06-21-2017 11:16 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Sale is on track for 300+ Ks. That's a historic-level season. If he doesn't get injured there's a great chance he'll hit it. With that, and an ERA in the vicinity of Keuchel's (say, within 0.2 or so), I think he'd win.
You see, that's the thing. Keuchel has got to come back to Sale. If Keuchel keeps on at a sub 2 ERA, Sale has almost zero shot to get close enough. For Sale right now to finish with a 2.48 ERA even- he would need to rest of the season- in say 34 starts and lets say 225 innings- 62 earned runs. So right now he's given up 34 er in 107.1 innings. He would need to give up 28 er in 117.2 ip. That's a 2.14 ERA. I'm sorry, but right now, he's shown absolutely no indication that he can do that. His last 10 starts, he's pitched to a 3.75 ERA. Last 5 starts, it's 3.93.
Yeah, if Keuchel can come back soon and keep his ERA under 2.50 (closer to 2.00) then it's his to lose. If his ERA ends around 2.60 and Sale is at like 2.90 with 40 more innings and continued dominance, then it'll go to Sale
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 06-22-2017 09:36 AM
(06-22-2017 08:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:(06-21-2017 11:23 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Terrible illustration of how bad Nat's pen is. Scherzer carries a no hitter into the 8th, loses it on a crappy infield single, then loads the bases for Stanton. Anybody else gets lifted but Baker doesn't trust his pen (I've seen this movie before in LA), and Scherzer proceeds to wild pitch a run in then gives up the go ahead (and eventually winning) run on a single. He finally gets out of the inning but threw 121 pitches to get there.
Scherzer has done that same thing before and gotten out of it. Did it last year when the pen was a lot stronger. There's a lot greater examples of the Nats inept bullpen than yesterday.
ha for sure. Curious to see if they go for Robertson (the obvious move), or throw a big package at the Jays to try to get Osuna, who's a better pitcher
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-22-2017 09:53 AM
(06-22-2017 09:33 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:Problem that Sale has is if he keeps on at 3.75 ERA push the rest of the season(what he's done last 10 starts)- his end of season ERA would be 3.32. For Sale to have a chance, he's going to have to improve his numbers some. Considering he's faded in years past and he's thrown more innings so far this year than he ever has at this point of the year- color me doubtful.(06-22-2017 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:(06-21-2017 11:16 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Sale is on track for 300+ Ks. That's a historic-level season. If he doesn't get injured there's a great chance he'll hit it. With that, and an ERA in the vicinity of Keuchel's (say, within 0.2 or so), I think he'd win.
You see, that's the thing. Keuchel has got to come back to Sale. If Keuchel keeps on at a sub 2 ERA, Sale has almost zero shot to get close enough. For Sale right now to finish with a 2.48 ERA even- he would need to rest of the season- in say 34 starts and lets say 225 innings- 62 earned runs. So right now he's given up 34 er in 107.1 innings. He would need to give up 28 er in 117.2 ip. That's a 2.14 ERA. I'm sorry, but right now, he's shown absolutely no indication that he can do that. His last 10 starts, he's pitched to a 3.75 ERA. Last 5 starts, it's 3.93.
Yeah, if Keuchel can come back soon and keep his ERA under 2.50 (closer to 2.00) then it's his to lose. If his ERA ends around 2.60 and Sale is at like 2.90 with 40 more innings and continued dominance, then it'll go to Sale
I think a dark horse this year may actually be Kluber. He's positioned himself well where if he can put together a great 2nd half, he could steal the award. And like we showed yesterday, he's been the good version here recently. (of course, he's going to get lit up next start on Saturday and we'll LOL at this post).
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-22-2017 10:17 AM
and from where have we heard this before- Mets pitcher was placed on the DL.
This time, it's Zack Wheeler. So 3/5 of the Mets preseason rotation is on the DL now. wow.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 06-22-2017 11:41 AM
(06-22-2017 09:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:(06-22-2017 09:33 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:Problem that Sale has is if he keeps on at 3.75 ERA push the rest of the season(what he's done last 10 starts)- his end of season ERA would be 3.32. For Sale to have a chance, he's going to have to improve his numbers some. Considering he's faded in years past and he's thrown more innings so far this year than he ever has at this point of the year- color me doubtful.(06-22-2017 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:(06-21-2017 11:16 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Sale is on track for 300+ Ks. That's a historic-level season. If he doesn't get injured there's a great chance he'll hit it. With that, and an ERA in the vicinity of Keuchel's (say, within 0.2 or so), I think he'd win.
You see, that's the thing. Keuchel has got to come back to Sale. If Keuchel keeps on at a sub 2 ERA, Sale has almost zero shot to get close enough. For Sale right now to finish with a 2.48 ERA even- he would need to rest of the season- in say 34 starts and lets say 225 innings- 62 earned runs. So right now he's given up 34 er in 107.1 innings. He would need to give up 28 er in 117.2 ip. That's a 2.14 ERA. I'm sorry, but right now, he's shown absolutely no indication that he can do that. His last 10 starts, he's pitched to a 3.75 ERA. Last 5 starts, it's 3.93.
Yeah, if Keuchel can come back soon and keep his ERA under 2.50 (closer to 2.00) then it's his to lose. If his ERA ends around 2.60 and Sale is at like 2.90 with 40 more innings and continued dominance, then it'll go to Sale
I don't have a lot of energy for this argument (we're trying to predict voter behavior but arguing it with stats - that's pretty f'ing arbitrary in my book), but my earlier point was based on the fact that Sale's last two starts have been good ones, after 5 mediocre to bad starts. If the last two are him "returning to normal" then his ERA will come down. Hell, the CY trackers have him at 1 or 2 right now. But if he's on a roller coaster and bad starts will follow good starts, etc., then yeah, I think a consistent Keuchel would likely win it.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 06-22-2017 12:27 PM
the last 2 he had-
1 er in 8 innings- ok that's a good start
3 er in 8.1 innings- that's a 3.24 ERA start. A decent one, but he's going to need better than that to really help his ERA.
The guy as a starter has a 3.02 career ERA. Normal is that.
If Keuchel finishes 18-4 with a 1.90 ERA, it's going to be really difficult for Sale to top that.