(05-30-2017 10:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm saying that he's gotten pretty fat off of the Padres and Giants. He's had 6 starts against decent teams and his ERA is double when they see the Padres and Giants(by far 2 of the 3 worst offensive teams in MLB this year). He won't see anyone nearly as bad as those for another 6 starts.

And now instead of seeing those bad teams, he's going to see the top 4 NL offenses(in his next 5 games)- with the Indians an average team in a DH game as the 5th game.

Also you get the cumulative effect of having tough opponents time after time after time.

(05-31-2017 04:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 10:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm saying that he's gotten pretty fat off of the Padres and Giants. He's had 6 starts against decent teams and his ERA is double when they see the Padres and Giants(by far 2 of the 3 worst offensive teams in MLB this year). He won't see anyone nearly as bad as those for another 6 starts.

And now instead of seeing those bad teams, he's going to see the top 4 NL offenses(in his next 5 games)- with the Indians an average team in a DH game as the 5th game.

Also you get the cumulative effect of having tough opponents time after time after time.

Of course he got fat off bad teams. That's what everybody does! It's simply not insightful analysis to say that pitching against good offensive teams is likely to inflate a pitcher's ERA. If you believe that Kershaw's stats are likely to fall out of the Cy Young conversation, well, that's a reach, but ok. As I said just a few posts ago, we'll see.

(05-31-2017 08:05 AM)stever20 Wrote:  something to watch tonight:
ELIAS: If there are 47 homers Wednesday, May will set a record for the most homers in ANY calendar month in MLB history.

(05-31-2017 06:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so Arizona 4-3 so far on this 11 game road trip. Get a split in Florida and they have done what they needed to do on this 11 game road trip(which I think longest of the year)

17-11 May after a 16-11 April. 6 game lead on the Cardinals for the 2nd wild card spot after 55 games. If Arizona just goes 54-53 last 107 games, they finish 87-75. St Louis would have to go 64-49 rest of the way to beat that(92 win pace) Chicago would have to go 63-47 the rest of the way to beat that(93 win pace). Milwaukee would have to go 61-49 rest of the way(90 win pace). So 2 of 3 of them would have to do that to top Arizona. Looks really reasonable that both wild card teams this year will come out of the West. If not likely.

(05-31-2017 05:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-31-2017 04:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 10:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm saying that he's gotten pretty fat off of the Padres and Giants. He's had 6 starts against decent teams and his ERA is double when they see the Padres and Giants(by far 2 of the 3 worst offensive teams in MLB this year). He won't see anyone nearly as bad as those for another 6 starts.

And now instead of seeing those bad teams, he's going to see the top 4 NL offenses(in his next 5 games)- with the Indians an average team in a DH game as the 5th game.

Also you get the cumulative effect of having tough opponents time after time after time.

Of course he got fat off bad teams. That's what everybody does! It's simply not insightful analysis to say that pitching against good offensive teams is likely to inflate a pitcher's ERA. If you believe that Kershaw's stats are likely to fall out of the Cy Young conversation, well, that's a reach, but ok. As I said just a few posts ago, we'll see.

Part of it is that he's had 5 starts against those bad teams. There are 4 teams that have a runs per game average of 4 runs or fewer.
Kershaw- 5 starts
Sale by comparison- 1 start(and his start was vs Pittsburgh who scores .5 runs per game more than San Diego or San Francisco)

(06-01-2017 08:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It's absurd to think Kershaw is just going to blow by everyone.

(06-01-2017 08:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It's absurd to think Kershaw is just going to blow by everyone. We'll learn a lot about him in these next 2 starts when he sees the 2 best offenses in the NL- Milwaukee and Washington. He's gotten lucky in who he's seen so far this season. His luck is over now.