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+----- Thread: 2017 MLB Season Thread (/thread-809851.html)
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-07-2017 07:16 PM
I'm gonna pull a stever and look at Cody Bellinger's (small sample size) stats: 11 games, .357/.414/.786. Tied for team lead in HR. He's appeared in less then 1/3 of team's games yet has already accumulated 0.7 WAR. Obviously this pace won't continue. He hasn't seen enough playing time for the league to get a read on him. The picture below is awesome, because he put a pitch over the fence that he had no business swinging at, but the pic is also bad, because he REALLY had no business swinging at it. Pitchers are going to figure that out. In the mean time, while AGon is on the DL anyway, he's fun to watch.
![[Image: C_MeSuPXYAArxyl.jpg:large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_MeSuPXYAArxyl.jpg:large)
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-07-2017 08:39 PM
to me this next month is just huge for the Mets... They have 4 weeks with these opponents....
Giants, @ Brewers, @ D'Backs, Angels, Padres, @ Pirates, Brewers(4), Pirates. So 25 games. of those 25, only the 3 with Arizona above .500. They have to go like 15-10 or better to have any shot this year I feel. If they are anything worse than 14-11, they are after 55 games sub .500. With of those 55 opponents, only the 6 with Washington and the 3 with Arizona over .500. So easy part of the schedule over with just about.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-08-2017 08:45 AM
(04-15-2017 08:35 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: Another poor game for Greinke. I know his FIP is good, but his xFIP is almost exactly the same as last year and so far this season he's thrown a lousy 16.2 innings in 3 starts. At the very least we can say with some certainty that he's no longer an ace
I think it's pretty funny looking at this now. Greinke now tied for 9th in innings pitched with 43.2 innings in 7 starts. Or since this post 27 innings in 4 starts. In the NL, only Kershaw and Cueto(who is at 44 innings) have thrown more innings right now. #11 in ERA and #8 in FIP in the NL right now.
1 thing also interesting looking at the stats was I was surprised how high Kershaw's FIP was so far. Then I saw he's given up 7 homers. HR/9 up from .5 to 1.3. Plus his walks back to humanoid levels this year- '15 he was at 1.6/9, '17 he's at 1.3/9. '16 he was at 0.7/9(0.6 if you take out the 1 ibb). His 3.12 FIP would be his worst since 2010. And his schedule upcoming isn't easy.. has road starts with Colorado and Milwaukee in the next few weeks, along with home starts vs the Cubs and Nats. Then a road start in Cleveland(so DH park). And quite possibly in Cincy as well. Oh, and will also likely be a road starter in the Angels series(so another DH park). So a really tough setup for him coming up until the all star break.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-08-2017 12:13 PM
(05-08-2017 08:45 AM)stever20 Wrote: 1 thing also interesting looking at the stats was I was surprised how high Kershaw's FIP was so far. Then I saw he's given up 7 homers. HR/9 up from .5 to 1.3. Plus his walks back to humanoid levels this year- '15 he was at 1.6/9, '17 he's at 1.3/9. '16 he was at 0.7/9(0.6 if you take out the 1 ibb). His 3.12 FIP would be his worst since 2010. And his schedule upcoming isn't easy.. has road starts with Colorado and Milwaukee in the next few weeks, along with home starts vs the Cubs and Nats. Then a road start in Cleveland(so DH park). And quite possibly in Cincy as well. Oh, and will also likely be a road starter in the Angels series(so another DH park). So a really tough setup for him coming up until the all star break.
Well, his Mar/April stats for 2016 and 2017 are pretty similar (including FIP). The May 1 game at SFO really skews his numbers; he have up 8 hits and 2HR. Otherwise his stats look decently comparable to a similar time period last year. So it's probably too early to compare current season stats to full season stats, but there MIGHT be something going on and here's potentially more relevant data: His slider, which he throws about 25% of the time, is behaving differently. Horizontal break is significantly less and vertical break is a lot greater than it has been. He's also throwing it harder. Most importantly, hitters are making contact at a MUCH higher rate. See below:
![[Image: ClaytonKershawSliderChart.png]](http://dodgersdigest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/ClaytonKershawSliderChart.png)
During Spring Training, when Kershaw was asked about how he deals with his back injury, he said he was feeling fine, feeling healthy, but he also said that his approach to warming up, stretching, training was different because of the injury. I don't know if these things are connected but I don't think it's unfair to speculate that changes in his approach to preparation might also lead to changes on the mound, intentionally or otherwise. We've got (at least) 3 possibilities: 1) This has nothing to do with anything and it's just the normal stuff a pitcher goes through in the course of a season, 2) The injury is affecting his approach and he will have to make more adjustments to his approach to remedy them, or 3) This is the new Kershaw, and instead of being superhuman, he's merely elite.
Glad he's where he's at, regardless, but if this continues it could make things more interesting as he approaches his option after the 2018 season.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-08-2017 01:13 PM
looking at the 1st 7 starts.....
2016 2.04 ERA, 1.69 FIP .199/.215/.288 slash line- .503 OPS. 3 walks, 3 homers. .282 babip. 10 extra base hits allowed 53.2 IP 3/64 bb/k ratio 4 double digit k games and 1 with 9. 76.7% LOB%
2017 2.40 ERA, 3.12 FIP .210/.238/370 slash line- .608 OPS. 7 walks, 7 homers. .254 babip. 14 extra base hits allowed. 48.2 IP 7/53 bb/k ratio 1 double digit k game and 1 with 9. 85.2% LOB%.
as far as the 1 game skewing numbers Maybe- but 2016 he had a game where he gave up 5 runs in 7 innings. So number skewing game there as well....
If anything, Kershaw has been lucky this year. He could have been much worse and thrown fewer innings even.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-08-2017 02:02 PM
Did you even read my post? You picked the weak argument (small sample size stats) and doubled down, when I gave you actual performance data. It's a MUCH more compelling analysis.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-08-2017 02:13 PM
7 starts isn't a small sample size. And the numbers aren't close at all to being very similar. 20% worse OPS. FIP almost DOUBLE. really only thing that is close to the same is ERA- and even there ,it's still about a 15% drop off.
The other thing that is really different year to year performance wise that is telling....
pitch type-
2016 1st 7 starts-
51.3% fb, 32.1% slider
2017 1st 7 starts-
47.3% fb, 35.2% slider
so he's throwing more sliders and fewer fastballs. 1 start where he was over last years numbers of fastballs.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-08-2017 02:29 PM
Less than 25% of likely starts for the season is too early to draw season-esque conclusions. There is no credible trend in FIP or ERA that you can develop. I think it's pretty clear I'm not denying there might be an issue here, but the data you are using are not enough to make the claim. On the other hand...
(05-08-2017 02:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: so he's throwing more sliders and fewer fastballs. 1 start where he was over last years numbers of fastballs.
Exactly - this is what that table gets to. He's throwing more sliders that are less effective. Which is a really good place to start looking to see if there's a problem. Paying attention to that slider performance over the next few starts will probably tell us whether or not he's able to make corrections.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-08-2017 03:15 PM
I think FIP being nearly double is a credible trend though. You can act like 7 starts isn't much- but it is around 23% of the starts for the season. And the next 10 will be really difficult opponents. As opposed to so far with 4 of the 7 starts being vs San Diego and San Francisco.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-08-2017 05:38 PM
(05-07-2017 08:39 PM)stever20 Wrote: to me this next month is just huge for the Mets... They have 4 weeks with these opponents....
Giants, @ Brewers, @ D'Backs, Angels, Padres, @ Pirates, Brewers(4), Pirates. So 25 games. of those 25, only the 3 with Arizona above .500. They have to go like 15-10 or better to have any shot this year I feel. If they are anything worse than 14-11, they are after 55 games sub .500. With of those 55 opponents, only the 6 with Washington and the 3 with Arizona over .500. So easy part of the schedule over with just about.
And here's why I want to say the Mets are done regardless...
Quote:Mike Puma ✔ @NYPost_Mets
Two factors in not starting Harvey on Wednesday: Team wants him to throw a side session first. And they want to avoid hostile environment.
That hostile environment they're hoping to avoid? Citi Field.
There is not enough fao in
to express how hilarious this is to me.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-08-2017 09:38 PM
Oh, FFS swoosh, bottom of the ninth, AGAIN?
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 05-09-2017 12:34 PM
(05-08-2017 09:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Oh, FFS swoosh, bottom of the ninth, AGAIN?
dude, i was at work yesterday and thought: do i want to do something with my gf, or watch the game? Hardly a difficult choice. The only intriguing story line is, will we be able to get the #1 pick in 2018?
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 05-09-2017 03:24 PM
(05-09-2017 12:34 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(05-08-2017 09:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Oh, FFS swoosh, bottom of the ninth, AGAIN?
dude, i was at work yesterday and thought: do i want to do something with my gf, or watch the game? Hardly a difficult choice. The only intriguing story line is, will we be able to get the #1 pick in 2018?
Well, you could have watched the game WITH your... nah, nevermind. That wouldn't really do anybody any good.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 05-09-2017 04:12 PM
(05-09-2017 03:24 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(05-09-2017 12:34 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(05-08-2017 09:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Oh, FFS swoosh, bottom of the ninth, AGAIN?
dude, i was at work yesterday and thought: do i want to do something with my gf, or watch the game? Hardly a difficult choice. The only intriguing story line is, will we be able to get the #1 pick in 2018?
Well, you could have watched the game WITH your... nah, nevermind. That wouldn't really do anybody any good.
one time i watched the Giants on the TV and the Thunder-Rockets playoff game on the computer and she was like, I probably shouldn't have stayed for this...it's not attractive
I'm like, welcome to my world
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-11-2017 01:54 PM
from the where have we heard this before department.....
Another Mets pitcher out. This time it's Jeurys Familia out with an arterial clot in his right shoulder. may require surgery.
Just remarkable all the injuries.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 05-11-2017 10:43 PM
Looks like stever was spot on regarding Greinke. I was very much incorrect
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-11-2017 11:25 PM
I thought he was pretty good- but right now just looked and after tonight's start, he's the #1 pitcher in the NL in Fan Graphs WAR. He's one of only 7 guys with 10+ k's/9 ip right now. And the thing is he's doing the one thing that you were complaining about earlier- the eating of the innings. He's averaged 7 ip/start now over the last 5 starts. The ONLY thing holding him back right now- homers. He's given up 6 homers the last 5 starts. The only thing where it's luck with him in these 5 starts- all 5 of those were solo homers.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-12-2017 08:40 AM
so was looking at baseball-reference. 1st off- he right now leads the NL in WAR in there as well- not too often a guy leads in WAR in both FG and BR.
was looking at their comps of similar pitchers thru his age..... Verlander, Smoltz, Mussina, Hamels, Welch, Saberhagen, Lester, Bunning, Peavy, and Jack Morris. Got me thinking. Does he have a shot with another 2-3 good years of actually making the Hall of Fame? I wouldn't have thought so originally but man you look at his numbers and they aren't bad.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 05-12-2017 12:01 PM
(05-12-2017 08:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: so was looking at baseball-reference. 1st off- he right now leads the NL in WAR in there as well- not too often a guy leads in WAR in both FG and BR.
was looking at their comps of similar pitchers thru his age..... Verlander, Smoltz, Mussina, Hamels, Welch, Saberhagen, Lester, Bunning, Peavy, and Jack Morris. Got me thinking. Does he have a shot with another 2-3 good years of actually making the Hall of Fame? I wouldn't have thought so originally but man you look at his numbers and they aren't bad.
wouldn't have thought it possible either, but like you said if he can turn in another 2-3 good years then there's a chance. A lot will depend on how willing the voters will be to lower their bars. We need to change the definition of what it means to be a hall of fame pitcher
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 05-12-2017 01:08 PM
(05-12-2017 12:01 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(05-12-2017 08:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: so was looking at baseball-reference. 1st off- he right now leads the NL in WAR in there as well- not too often a guy leads in WAR in both FG and BR.
was looking at their comps of similar pitchers thru his age..... Verlander, Smoltz, Mussina, Hamels, Welch, Saberhagen, Lester, Bunning, Peavy, and Jack Morris. Got me thinking. Does he have a shot with another 2-3 good years of actually making the Hall of Fame? I wouldn't have thought so originally but man you look at his numbers and they aren't bad.
wouldn't have thought it possible either, but like you said if he can turn in another 2-3 good years then there's a chance. A lot will depend on how willing the voters will be to lower their bars. We need to change the definition of what it means to be a hall of fame pitcher
Yeah. If he could keep this year up and get another Cy Young, that'd be 2(plus his incredible 2015 year where voters should treat all 3 of him, Arrieta, and Kershaw as having Cy Young seasons given how incredible all 3 were that season). And the thing is looking at him- he's still only 33. You would think he's still got 2-3 really good years left after this year. He's got a shot at getting up to around 250 wins(which I feel we're going to look at years from now as the new 300).