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+----- Thread: 2017 MLB Season Thread (/thread-809851.html)
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 10:44 AM
the Arizona/Colorado series shows how luck can play such a part in things....
Arizona totally will get to avoid Colorado's 2 best starters in that series. 3 actually if you include Gray.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 11:18 AM
(04-21-2017 10:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 10:30 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 10:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 10:09 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 09:35 AM)stever20 Wrote: I think if you had told them that they would go 4-6 on a 10 game road trip with 7 vs SF and LA- they would be like where do we sign up. They now get 10 at home with LA, San Diego, and Colorado. They go 6-4, and they have had a 16-11 April. Pretty solid start for them.
why is 10 at home against the dodgers, padres and rockies, easy?
might not be easy but-
Dodgers- starting 1 lefty- Robbie Ray(with 1.96 ERA) in series.
Padres- 4 games- their team road ERA is 5.11 now.
Rockies- 3 games- seeing 2 of their worst starters
6-4 would be a very reasonable goal.
the rockies are due to break out, though. Look at their wRC+ and tell me you expect it to continue like that
2 of the 3 starters vs Arizona though-
Freeland 4.91 ERA. 4.55 FIP
Anderson 7.32, 5.56
the 3rd starter projected is Rusin who has a career 4.73 ERA and 4.26 FIP.
tbh, i don't totally pay attention to that stuff. Rockies could sweep them and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. I just don't really buy into early season numbers. Things always have a way of evening out
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 11:19 AM
(04-21-2017 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote: the Arizona/Colorado series shows how luck can play such a part in things....
Arizona totally will get to avoid Colorado's 2 best starters in that series. 3 actually if you include Gray.
like how i wanna see one of the Giants-Mets games when we visit Queens next month, but Bumgarner and Cueto are both due to miss the series. So my choices are Moore, Samardzija or Cain. Not exactly a slew of wonderful choices
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 11:39 AM
(04-21-2017 11:19 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote: the Arizona/Colorado series shows how luck can play such a part in things....
Arizona totally will get to avoid Colorado's 2 best starters in that series. 3 actually if you include Gray.
like how i wanna see one of the Giants-Mets games when we visit Queens next month, but Bumgarner and Cueto are both due to miss the series. So my choices are Moore, Samardzija or Cain. Not exactly a slew of wonderful choices
exactly. Some teams this is much less so than others- see the Nats who for this weekend don't start Strasburg- but still have Roark, Gio, and Scherzer going.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 11:57 AM
just looking so far at the projected standings start of season to now.....
NL East just looking-
Nats were projected at 92.4-69.6 68.4% div, 85.4% PO
Mets were projected at 87.1-74.9 27.1% div, 59.2% PO
now-
Nats projected at 94.3-67.7 80.2% div, 94.2% PO
Mets projected at 86-76 16.7% div, 57.5% PO
So instead of a 5 game margin projected, it's now at 8 games projected. Pretty big difference there.
another 2 that have dropped-
Giants-
preseason 88.5-73.5 18.7% div, 66.8% PO
current 84.7-77.3 11.6% div, 48% PO
pretty huge difference there in just 10% of the season. Almost a 4 game difference.
Cards-
preseason 85.3-76.7 10.8% div 45.9% PO
current 82-80 6.8% div, 30.8% PO
so a 3 game difference. dropped 15% PO chances already.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 12:52 PM
finny stats for the Nats: with bases empty their offense is one of the worst. With RISP they're 3rd best. Obviously those will move towards the median and probably won't affect the overall outcome too much. Just thought it was humorous
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 01:13 PM
with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
the one good thing is the Nats have a good backup for him in Adam Lind. who in the meantime is a pretty good bat to have off the bench. He'd be a great fit for the 10 interleague road games as DH(or 1b with Zimmerman dh'ing).
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 01:25 PM
(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
the one good thing is the Nats have a good backup for him in Adam Lind. who in the meantime is a pretty good bat to have off the bench. He'd be a great fit for the 10 interleague road games as DH(or 1b with Zimmerman dh'ing).
It's possible for Zim to end up having a good season though. I mean sure, a 1.209 OPS is never going to happen, but .850 could, and that's damn good
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 01:31 PM
(04-21-2017 01:25 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
the one good thing is the Nats have a good backup for him in Adam Lind. who in the meantime is a pretty good bat to have off the bench. He'd be a great fit for the 10 interleague road games as DH(or 1b with Zimmerman dh'ing).
It's possible for Zim to end up having a good season though. I mean sure, a 1.209 OPS is never going to happen, but .850 could, and that's damn good
the last time he had a .850 OPS season was in 2010. In full years he's had a .850 OPS only twice.
I'd love for it to continue, but color me a skeptic there.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 01:41 PM
one thing that he's doing this year is swinging at more pitches- 45.3% this year vs 43.7% last year. At the same time, his contact% is up from 77.5% to 81.3%. Great combo there.
The other thing that he's seeing is guys have to pitch to him. He's batted 30 times this year with bases empty, vs 28 with men on base. 14 of the 28 times, there's been at least 2 guys on base. With Turner, Eaton, Harper, and Murphy batting in front of him, you would think that will continue.
So maybe he can keep up statistically to some degree. My larger worry with him quite frankly is health(which has even when he returns hurt his production).
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 01:49 PM
the other thing with Zimmerman that is amazing is he's done this all without a platoon advantage. He's had 5 pa's all year long vs lefties. He's had 53 vs righties.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 02:04 PM
(04-21-2017 01:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:25 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
the one good thing is the Nats have a good backup for him in Adam Lind. who in the meantime is a pretty good bat to have off the bench. He'd be a great fit for the 10 interleague road games as DH(or 1b with Zimmerman dh'ing).
It's possible for Zim to end up having a good season though. I mean sure, a 1.209 OPS is never going to happen, but .850 could, and that's damn good
the last time he had a .850 OPS season was in 2010. In full years he's had a .850 OPS only twice.
I'd love for it to continue, but color me a skeptic there.
well it's easier to do when you start off hot. Let's see how long he's able to maintain a torrid pace and where he ends April at
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 04-21-2017 02:10 PM
(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 04-21-2017 02:13 PM
Talk about projectables, Yasiel Puig at OPS of .919 and ISO of .273, all with a BABIP of .244. I'm liking where this projects but with Puig you have to be wary of him backsliding. He's saying and acting like a big leaguer right now, but there's still plenty of time for him to get bored and restless...
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 02:30 PM
(04-21-2017 02:10 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
Rendon though the 1 thing you see so far is like Zimmerman he's seen a ton of righties so far. 55 PA's vs righties, 5 pa's vs lefties. for career he's batted 33 points lower vs righties.
Nats now only team in MLB who hasn't seen a lefty starter, and only Atlanta has only seen 1 lefty starter.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 02:37 PM
(04-21-2017 02:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:10 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
Nats now only team in MLB who hasn't seen a lefty starter, and only Atlanta has only seen 1 lefty starter.
jeez that's nuts
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 02:46 PM
(04-21-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:10 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
Nats now only team in MLB who hasn't seen a lefty starter, and only Atlanta has only seen 1 lefty starter.
jeez that's nuts
Nats 1st lefty that they see will be Anderson from the Rockies in Colorado on Monday. Only lefty they're scheduled to see in April. 1st week of May only Ray from Arizona. So 1st 31 games, only 2 lefties. Utterly remarkable- that's almost 20% of the season. By comparison, the Nats last year saw 34 lefty starters and 128 righty starters(so not even a 4 to 1 margin).
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - flyingswoosh - 04-21-2017 03:00 PM
(04-21-2017 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:10 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
Nats now only team in MLB who hasn't seen a lefty starter, and only Atlanta has only seen 1 lefty starter.
jeez that's nuts
Nats 1st lefty that they see will be Anderson from the Rockies in Colorado on Monday. Only lefty they're scheduled to see in April. 1st week of May only Ray from Arizona. So 1st 31 games, only 2 lefties. Utterly remarkable- that's almost 20% of the season. By comparison, the Nats last year saw 34 lefty starters and 128 righty starters(so not even a 4 to 1 margin).
that's a funny scheduling quirk
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - Brookes Owl - 04-21-2017 03:02 PM
(04-21-2017 02:37 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:(04-21-2017 02:10 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:(04-21-2017 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote: with the Nats the thing that has happened that I don't expect to continue is Ryan Zimmerman. He's batting right now .389 with a 1.209 OPS. considering he's played more than 95 games once in the last 4 years- if he got 120 games, I'd be so thrilled.
On the other hand, Rendon hovering around the Mendoza line with an ISO of .036 is also something you shouldn't expect to continue. In fact, he's been slowly inching up over the last 10 days or so and it's pretty reasonable to expect him to finish at least where he finished last year.
Nats now only team in MLB who hasn't seen a lefty starter, and only Atlanta has only seen 1 lefty starter.
jeez that's nuts
wRC+ of 124. THAT STRATEGY IS NOT WORKING.
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread - stever20 - 04-21-2017 03:13 PM
what is interesting is so far this yer the pct of games started by lefties has gone up compared to the last 3 years....
2012 1555/3305 32.0% lefty starters
2013 1440/3422 29.6%
2014 1314/3546 27.0%
2015 1333/3525 27.4%
2016 1305/3551 26.9%
2017 135/335 28.7%
looking it's 9/21 tonight so 144/356 thru 250 games- or 28.8%.
So those numbers make what the Nats are seeing that much more remarkable.