(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

(04-18-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

good call, forgot his ERA was 2.95. I guess when I take another look at it, things don't appear to be in his favor. The BB rate will go up and the strand rate will worsen too. Without a big improvement in his BABIP he's going to have trouble. I'm thinking 4.00 ERA is more likely, with a WAR of around 2

(04-18-2017 10:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

good call, forgot his ERA was 2.95. I guess when I take another look at it, things don't appear to be in his favor. The BB rate will go up and the strand rate will worsen too. Without a big improvement in his BABIP he's going to have trouble. I'm thinking 4.00 ERA is more likely, with a WAR of around 2

forget BABIP, if he doesn't improve his BABOP, he's going to struggle. can't continue to channel his inner Bert Blyleven and expect success.

What's amazing about the hr problem is he used to be a great pitcher at limiting the homers. 2008-2014 he was in the top 10 each year in hr/9 allowed. For his career he's #6 active

(04-18-2017 10:40 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

good call, forgot his ERA was 2.95. I guess when I take another look at it, things don't appear to be in his favor. The BB rate will go up and the strand rate will worsen too. Without a big improvement in his BABIP he's going to have trouble. I'm thinking 4.00 ERA is more likely, with a WAR of around 2

forget BABIP, if he doesn't improve his BABOP, he's going to struggle. can't continue to channel his inner Bert Blyleven and expect success.

What's amazing about the hr problem is he used to be a great pitcher at limiting the homers. 2008-2014 he was in the top 10 each year in hr/9 allowed. For his career he's #6 active

didn't they recently move the walls in at Safeco? That could explain some of the difference

(04-18-2017 10:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:40 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:59 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.

good call, forgot his ERA was 2.95. I guess when I take another look at it, things don't appear to be in his favor. The BB rate will go up and the strand rate will worsen too. Without a big improvement in his BABIP he's going to have trouble. I'm thinking 4.00 ERA is more likely, with a WAR of around 2

forget BABIP, if he doesn't improve his BABOP, he's going to struggle. can't continue to channel his inner Bert Blyleven and expect success.

What's amazing about the hr problem is he used to be a great pitcher at limiting the homers. 2008-2014 he was in the top 10 each year in hr/9 allowed. For his career he's #6 active

didn't they recently move the walls in at Safeco? That could explain some of the difference

so brought in for the '13 season... http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/sea/ballpark/wall_dimensions.jsp

so that's fine but doesn't explain why he got worse starting after the '14 season. You saw a bit of an uptick from 0.5 in '12 to 0.7 in '13 and 0.6 in '14.

(04-18-2017 10:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  boy a huge week for the Dodgers. right now at 7-7 2 games back of Arizona and Colorado. Get 2 with Colorado(Kershaw pitching tomorrow) then 3 with Arizona. Followed by 7 of 10 with San Francisco. Dodgers get a break with the Giants in that Moore and Madbum only scheduled to pitch once each in those 7 games. Only see 1 lefty vs Arizona. But next 2 games with Colorado- both lefties. Granted Freeland with a 5.91 ERA and Anderson with a 8.59 ERA. If they struggle vs those 2, wow.

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

(04-18-2017 12:11 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  boy a huge week for the Dodgers. right now at 7-7 2 games back of Arizona and Colorado. Get 2 with Colorado(Kershaw pitching tomorrow) then 3 with Arizona. Followed by 7 of 10 with San Francisco. Dodgers get a break with the Giants in that Moore and Madbum only scheduled to pitch once each in those 7 games. Only see 1 lefty vs Arizona. But next 2 games with Colorado- both lefties. Granted Freeland with a 5.91 ERA and Anderson with a 8.59 ERA. If they struggle vs those 2, wow.

They seem to be struggling vs everybody right now. The numbers don't look too bad but it's clear they've been completely shut down a number of times.

(04-18-2017 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just looking next 15 games I think- Dodgers will see something like only 5 lefties in those 15 games. That's assuming no one tries to rig their rotation.

of course looking league wide so far- in 390 total games, lefties have started 114 and righties 276. So lefties start league wide 29% of the time. So 33% is actually kind of high. Dodgers have seen so far 7 lefties and 7 righties.

(04-18-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

true. but their pitching babip is .301 as well. Just looking, that's 5th worst in MLB right now.

and would say with their batting, they are tied for 4th in extra base hits non homers. So it might not be as fluky as you think.

(04-18-2017 03:19 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  just looking next 15 games I think- Dodgers will see something like only 5 lefties in those 15 games. That's assuming no one tries to rig their rotation.

of course looking league wide so far- in 390 total games, lefties have started 114 and righties 276. So lefties start league wide 29% of the time. So 33% is actually kind of high. Dodgers have seen so far 7 lefties and 7 righties.

It would not surprise me to see teams shuffling rotations to get their LHPs in Dodgers series.

(04-19-2017 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

true. but their pitching babip is .301 as well. Just looking, that's 5th worst in MLB right now.

and would say with their batting, they are tied for 4th in extra base hits non homers. So it might not be as fluky as you think.

With RISP their BABIP is .438, which is 67 points higher than the Red Sox at #2. The rockies were the 2016 leader at .332. So yeah, I'd say that's fluky

(04-19-2017 08:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 12:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Speaking of BABIP, have you looked at the Diamondbacks? .341! Kind of explains things a little...

true. but their pitching babip is .301 as well. Just looking, that's 5th worst in MLB right now.

and would say with their batting, they are tied for 4th in extra base hits non homers. So it might not be as fluky as you think.

With RISP their BABIP is .438, which is 67 points higher than the Red Sox at #2. The rockies were the 2016 leader at .332. So yeah, I'd say that's fluky

looking- right now they are 39-89 in those situations so not exactly a lot of at bats in that situation. Of the 39 hits, 10 are extra base hit- non homers- 6 doubles and 4 triples.

Also looking at the quality of the hitting- with scoring position- the dbacks are hitting only 9.8% soft right now. That's best in the league and one of only 3 teams lower than 17.7%. So they aren't getting cheated in those at bats by any stretch.

(04-19-2017 09:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the counterpoint to what you are saying is that Arizona is only at .277 in babip with no one on base- only 17th. And .221 overall average is only 21st. So while RISP may drop, they may get more guys on base, negating what you are saying to some degree.

The big question to me with the D'backs is can their starters continue to pitch like they have thru 15 games. Right now, their 3.28 ERA is 4th in MLB and 1st in the NL. Their 3.36 FIP is 5th in MLB and 4th in NL. While yes, their LOB% is 75.3% which seems high, it's only good for 13th in MLB and 6th in the NL. SO if their starters can keep that pace, even a tail off in hitting won't derail them much. Have to remember their starters last year had a 5.19 ERA- #29. FIP was 4.50- #20. LOB% last year was 67.8% #29. So if the starters keep up- that's where the improvement comes.