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+---- Thread: NCAA tourney (/thread-731387.html)
NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-18-2015 12:30 PM
One thing that makes me laugh on the other site is their despising ESPN so much.
They're using the ESPN giant killers as the biggest reason.....
Well...
let's look at the list of the Big East teams
Xavier 39% chance to lose vs Ole MIss
Providence 37% chance to lose to Boise or 27% vs Dayton
Georgetown 15% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 1.7% chance to lose vs Lafayette
Butler 38% chance to lose to Texas
don't have the St John's/SDSU game
now let's go to Ken Pom-
Xavier 42% chance to lose to Ole Miss
Providence game not on there yet
Georgetown 16% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 3% chance to lose to Lafayette
Butler 52% chance to lose to Texas
Boy, that Ken Pom is so biased against the Big East it's not funny. What a joke.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-18-2015 02:35 PM
ratings by seeds for the tourney-
1 16-0
2 13-3
3 14-2/1-0 vs pig
4 13-3/0-1 vs pig
5 7-9/2-1 vs pig
6 8-8/0-3 vs pig
7 11-5
8 11-5
some of these numbers are amazing last 4 years. the 5-8 numbers are remarkable. 5-6 seeds doing so poorly and 7-8 actually doing so well.
RE: NCAA tourney - gosports1 - 03-18-2015 09:36 PM
i dont like that 6th seed being 0-3 against the play-in
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-18-2015 10:10 PM
(03-18-2015 09:36 PM)gosports1 Wrote: i dont like that 6th seed being 0-3 against the play-in
yeah. get the kinks out at 1st for the PIG team and then much better that 2nd game.
RE: NCAA tourney - xusandy - 03-19-2015 10:10 AM
I can't agree agree that KenPom is biased against the Big East; it is, after all, just a computer program, and it has had a pretty darn good track record at picking winners over the years. I really don't think Ken Pomeroy is in there messing with his model because he doesn't like the Big East.
On the other hand, the committee clearly did not do the Big East any favors when putting together this year's bracket, despite the fact that we got a 1 seed, a 4 seed, three 6 seeds, and a 9 seed -- pretty impressive on the surface. While Nova and St. John's seem to have been treated comparably to similar teams, our three 6 seeds all seem to face particularly tough roads. Providence against Dayton in Columbus is just a real nasty matchup -- almost a home game for the Flyers. Xavier gets Ole Miss (very beatable), but then Baylor, and they were put into the West regional, where they'll have to face Arizona in Portland if they do manage to sneak into the Sweet 16. Butler has to face Texas in their first game; both the computers and almost every human "expert" considers Texas to be the single most under seeded team in the entire dance. Meanwhile, the bracket's other 6 seed, SMU, opens with UCLA, a team with a #49 RPI that probably shouldn't even be in the field. [ Aside: how/why does it make sense that UCLA was chosen over Colorado State (#28 RPI) or Temple (#34)? Only Indiana (#58 RPI) was a worse choice.] Anyway, today's FiveThirtyEight's tournament odds article gives the Bulldogs, Muskies, and Friars much longer odds of getting to the Sweet 16 than #7 seed Wichita State.
Finally, I've now read in 3 different places that Georgetown is the worst of the #4 seeds, the top pick for a 13-4 upset in the round of 64, and according to FiveThirtyEight, easily the least likely of the three #4 seeds to reach the Sweet 16, and also less likely (only a 26% chance) to get there than any of the #5 seeds. So while I'm hopeful that the Big East will have a great showing in the tourney, I recognize that it'll be tough to do, given the bracket placements we were given. But hey, let the games begin, and maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised by a few results.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-19-2015 10:35 AM
I was being sarcastic about Ken Pom- and comparing them with ESPN who everyone says is out to get the Big East. Remarkable how similar the numbers are...
Looking at the draws- I agree with you about Nova and St John's.
Georgetown drew I think as good of a draw as possible. The reason why they are viewed as the least likely of the 4's is because computer wise they are the worst of the 4's. Still not bad... Drew the worst 13 seed in the first round. Then a Utah team who lost 4 of last 7. After that it was going to be Wisconsin, Duke, or Kentucky- and it's not Kentucky, so that's a plus.
I really like PC's draw quite frankly. They draw a Dayton team who will be playing their 5th game in 7 days(with 6 players). I think they win there, and then they get the worst of the 3's in Oklahoma. Yeah crowd wise, it'll be tough, but PC has played in much tougher places...
Xavier and Butler's draws- not good at all... Xavier with Ole Miss/Baylor. Butler with Texas/Notre Dame.
As an aside about SMU- the reason they got the easiest of the 6 draws I think is because they were the top 6 seed. But even there- they have probably the best #3 seed in Iowa St 2nd round.
None of the 6's have a real easy go of it as a whole when you look at it. Yeah SMU 1st rd, but then PC 2nd rd.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-19-2015 10:50 AM
think the key is going to be how games are reffed....
1st 4 games-
Hampton/Manhattan- 44 fouls, 55 ft
BYU/Ole Miss- 44 fouls, 50 ft
Robert Morris/North Florida 44 fouls, 59 ft
Dayton/Boise 32 fouls, 24 ft
so outside of the last game(where the refs did swallow their whistle last 10 minutes)- it's going to be called really tight.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-19-2015 01:59 PM
and of course the 3 that gets upset is in SMU's bracket.
RE: NCAA tourney - xusandy - 03-20-2015 12:18 AM
4 BE games tonight, and 4 wins. If Providence and St. John's win tomorrow, than just maybe the bball fans of the country will acknowledge what this league is all about.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-20-2015 01:07 AM
(03-20-2015 12:18 AM)xusandy Wrote: 4 BE games tonight, and 4 wins. If Providence and St. John's win tomorrow, than just maybe the bball fans of the country will acknowledge what this league is all about.
I think Saturday/Sunday more important. Getting teams to the 2nd weekend is what's important.
Saturday is the big day I think-
6:10 Xavier vs Georgia St
7:10 Nova vs NC State
7:45 Georgetown vs Utah
9:40 Butler vs Notre Dame
If we can go 3-1 that night, it's huge. 2-2 is an absolute must with Xavier and Nova.
RE: NCAA tourney - mlb - 03-20-2015 10:14 AM
Great first day for the Big East. Xavier was very impressive against Ole Miss. I thought it would be a tight game but Xavier took control and never looked back.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-20-2015 10:36 AM
Xavier with a great shot to make the sweet 16 to face Arizona probably.
RE: NCAA tourney - Hoyas - 03-20-2015 01:43 PM
Nice to see the win last night. Next up are the Utes.
Great start for the Big East.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-20-2015 10:12 PM
Dunn with 2 fouls. Uh oh.
St John's down 13 2nd half. Uh oh.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-21-2015 12:01 AM
horribly reffed game for PC. Just awful.... Not sure if PC would have won regardless- they played awfully- but the refs sure as heck didn't help...
RE: NCAA tourney - mlb - 03-21-2015 12:02 AM
(03-21-2015 12:01 AM)stever20 Wrote: horribly reffed game for PC. Just awful.... Not sure if PC would have won regardless- they played awfully- but the refs sure as heck didn't help...
They've been bad both ways. Many calls that were just anticipated.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-21-2015 12:08 AM
(03-21-2015 12:02 AM)mlb Wrote:(03-21-2015 12:01 AM)stever20 Wrote: horribly reffed game for PC. Just awful.... Not sure if PC would have won regardless- they played awfully- but the refs sure as heck didn't help...
They've been bad both ways. Many calls that were just anticipated.
yeah- but the flagrant foul that Dunn got and the T that Cooley got were absolute jokes...
RE: NCAA tourney - mlb - 03-21-2015 12:10 AM
(03-21-2015 12:08 AM)stever20 Wrote: yeah- but the flagrant foul that Dunn got and the T that Cooley got were absolute jokes...
The flagrant, yep. I have a feeling that Cooley had been warned earlier about something so his flipping that chair down on the floor may have been justified.
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-21-2015 12:11 AM
(03-21-2015 12:10 AM)mlb Wrote:(03-21-2015 12:08 AM)stever20 Wrote: yeah- but the flagrant foul that Dunn got and the T that Cooley got were absolute jokes...
The flagrant, yep. I have a feeling that Cooley had been warned earlier about something so his flipping that chair down on the floor may have been justified.
I hope you're right about the chair one. If not- that may be the worst T I have seen in quite a while...
RE: NCAA tourney - stever20 - 03-21-2015 12:13 AM
The big question for PC now will be Dunn. He was awful tonight. Will he go pro or come back?