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+---- Thread: tourney look (/thread-674899.html)
tourney look - stever20 - 01-31-2014 03:04 PM
Just looking at the standings- if you double the current records- here's the look at the final standings- adding in my picks for the rest of the 1st half games...
Creighton 16-2 26-4 5.9 RPI
Villanova 16-2 28-3(adding in win over Temple) 3.7 RPI
Xavier 12-6 21-9 28.8 RPI
Providence 12-6 22-9 38.2 RPI
Marquette 10-8 18-13 67.7 RPI
Seton Hall 6-12 15-16 148.7 RPI
Georgetown 6-12 14-16(adding in loss to Mich St) 92.3 RPI
St John's 4-14 14-17 136.4 RPI
DePaul 4-14 12-19 151.2 RPI
Butler 4-14 14-16 129.8 RPI
(RPI's from RPI forecast tool show pre-tournament)
Marquette probably would need 1-2 more wins to feel good- and then still win the 4/5 game. PC has a 1 game cushion. They lose 2 more games and I think they are in some serious trouble, esepcially if they then lose to Marquette in the BET QF.
RE: tourney look - LouPower - 02-01-2014 06:06 PM
It's looking like 4 for the 10 team Big East.
RE: tourney look - stever20 - 02-02-2014 04:39 AM
just updating with Saturday's results- 1 game left in the 1st half(Xavier @ Villanova)
Creighton 16-2 26-4
Villanova either 16-2 28-3 or 14-4 26-5
Providence 12-6 22-9
Xavier either 12-6 22-9 or 10-8 20-11
Seton Hall 8-10 17-14
Marquette 8-10 16-15
St John's 6-12 16-15
Georgetown 6-12 15-15
Butler 4-14 14-16
DePaul 4-14 12-19
The Marquette loss today was an absolute killer. They now must go at least 6-3 to have any shot at doing anything to get in At Large in the BET. Right now we have 2 locks- Creighton and Villanova. PC and Xavier you'd like to think they're locks- but man especially Xavier- just think they have some work to do. Need to go 5-5 last 10 to feel good. Problem is they have games left at Villanova, Butler, Marquette, Georgetown, St John's, and Seton Hall- and home games left with Providence, Creighton, and Villanova. PC is looking good- but still they need to go at least 4-5 if not 5-4 to feel good about themselves entering the BET. With their depth issues(still 350/351 in bench minutes %) until they get those 4-5 wins, you can't feel comfortable about them at all. Georgetown with today's huge win has a shot- but then to, we need to go 6-3 2nd half to get to 18 wins. That's about bare minimum to me(don't see a 8-10 17-13 team having much of a shot at an at large bid).
RE: tourney look - LouPower - 02-02-2014 11:54 AM
Marquette is done without the auto-bid.
Creighton and Nova are locks. Xavier really hurt themselves this weekend, and PC would be the next team in. Maybe Georgetown uses MSU as a springboard. 5 would be difficult, and would take some help from outside.
RE: tourney look - stever20 - 02-02-2014 03:02 PM
(02-02-2014 11:54 AM)LouPower Wrote: Marquette is done without the auto-bid.
Creighton and Nova are locks. Xavier really hurt themselves this weekend, and PC would be the next team in. Maybe Georgetown uses MSU as a springboard. 5 would be difficult, and would take some help from outside.
Wouldn't call Marquette done, but if they lose like 3 (and maybe 2 to be honest) more games, then yes, they are done w/o the auto-bid.
5 with how everything is going seems like impossible. I'm afraid there's a better shot of 3 than there is 5.
RE: tourney look - LouPower - 02-02-2014 05:23 PM
(02-02-2014 03:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:(02-02-2014 11:54 AM)LouPower Wrote: Marquette is done without the auto-bid.
Creighton and Nova are locks. Xavier really hurt themselves this weekend, and PC would be the next team in. Maybe Georgetown uses MSU as a springboard. 5 would be difficult, and would take some help from outside.
Wouldn't call Marquette done, but if they lose like 3 (and maybe 2 to be honest) more games, then yes, they are done w/o the auto-bid.
5 with how everything is going seems like impossible. I'm afraid there's a better shot of 3 than there is 5.
10 losses already? Marquette is done unless they win in MSG. I think the "swing vote" is Providence. I think they're in as of this moment, but that's not a 100% guarantee. Xavier just gave up their margin for error with the home loss to SHU. If Providence gets in, that's your 4.
RE: tourney look - stever20 - 02-03-2014 01:54 PM
Marquette's not done at all. If they go 7-2 rest of the way, they're 19-12 and almost certainly in- especially with a 20th win at MSG.
I do agree that Xavier and Providence have little margin for error here down the stretch. I know both are projected as 20-11. If they go 19-12- they are in deep trouble.
RE: tourney look - LouPower - 02-03-2014 03:02 PM
(02-03-2014 01:54 PM)stever20 Wrote: Marquette's not done at all. If they go 7-2 rest of the way, they're 19-12 and almost certainly in- especially with a 20th win at MSG.
I do agree that Xavier and Providence have little margin for error here down the stretch. I know both are projected as 20-11. If they go 19-12- they are in deep trouble.
I think you're right about X and Providence. Marquette is history for this year UNLESS they go 8-1 or better. 7-2 doesn't get the job done. Marquette took a big hit with the loss to Butler.
RE: tourney look - stever20 - 02-03-2014 05:54 PM
(02-03-2014 03:02 PM)LouPower Wrote:(02-03-2014 01:54 PM)stever20 Wrote: Marquette's not done at all. If they go 7-2 rest of the way, they're 19-12 and almost certainly in- especially with a 20th win at MSG.
I do agree that Xavier and Providence have little margin for error here down the stretch. I know both are projected as 20-11. If they go 19-12- they are in deep trouble.
I think you're right about X and Providence. Marquette is history for this year UNLESS they go 8-1 or better. 7-2 doesn't get the job done. Marquette took a big hit with the loss to Butler.
If they go 7-2 they are 11-7 in conference(#3 conference) and 19-12. If they get 1 win in the BET after that- they're in.
RE: tourney look - LouPower - 02-04-2014 05:01 PM
Just ran the simulation on rpiwizard (from the RPI forecast site):
If Marquette goes 7-2 (Losses to Creighton and Villanova): RPI 58, SOS 56. No chance in hell of an at-large.
If Marquette goes 8-1 (Beat Creighton, lose to Nova): RPI 48, SOS 56, 20-11. That possibly gets in.
They can still win the BET, but 7-2 doesn't get the job done.
RE: tourney look - stever20 - 02-05-2014 12:05 AM
(02-04-2014 05:01 PM)LouPower Wrote: Just ran the simulation on rpiwizard (from the RPI forecast site):
If Marquette goes 7-2 (Losses to Creighton and Villanova): RPI 58, SOS 56. No chance in hell of an at-large.
If Marquette goes 8-1 (Beat Creighton, lose to Nova): RPI 48, SOS 56, 20-11. That possibly gets in.
They can still win the BET, but 7-2 doesn't get the job done.
If they are 58 entering the BET and get a 1st round win, they are 20-13 and finished 11-7 in the BE- and likely up to around 50. It would be awful news for the Big East if they didn't make the tourney with that resume.