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Sagarin Week 7 - MemOwl - 10-13-2013 08:29 AM
4-2
72 Rice (up four notches from last week)
76 North Texas (up 8)
100 Tulane (up 7)
139 UAB (down 3)
146 La Tech (down 3)
158 UTEP (down 2)
201 NMSU (up 3)
Our past schedule now stands at
10 TAMU
57 Houston
103 Florida Atlantic
104 Tulsa
105 Kansas
124 UTSA
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - MemOwl - 10-13-2013 08:31 AM
I think the obvious headline to this is that while we have "taken care of business" against teams ranked from 103 to 124, including two road wins, our margins of victory are 3, 4, 6, and 9 points, implying that we are more of that group than many of us would like to be.
EDIT: two quick predictions
1. If we get single digit wins against NMSU and/or UTEP, the dissatisfaction with coaching will only increase, notwithstanding various win streak lengths and "best starting record since nineteen ought whatever" commentary from the SID. NMSU and UTEP are, by any objective standard, so bad that a team that claims to be on the good side of mediocre should just handle them.
2. If we lose either of these two games, Bailiff will be gone at the end of the season.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - MemOwl - 10-13-2013 08:44 AM
I'm a bit surprised that Tulane didn't move up more. East Carolina dropped by 8 for losing to Tulane.
Beating a much higher ranked team while playing a freshman backup QB is a nice accomplishment for Curtis Johnson.
For those scoring at home, he makes $500,000. Tulane hasn't been to a bowl game since 2002, but they have 5 wins and are ranked ahead of (EDIT) each of their remaining opponents except Rice.
They have two bad losses this year, home to South Alabama and being totally noncompetitive at #59 Syracuse. My guess, though, is that when Curtis Johnson tells the media "we are getting better every week", no one laughs out loud.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - OptimisticOwl - 10-13-2013 08:47 AM
1. Yes
2. probably
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - gsloth - 10-13-2013 08:51 AM
(10-13-2013 08:44 AM)MemOwl Wrote: I'm a bit surprised that Tulane didn't move up more. East Carolina dropped by 8 for losing to Tulane.
Beating a much higher ranked team while playing a freshman backup QB is a nice accomplishment for Curtis Johnson.
For those scoring at home, he makes $500,000. Tulane hasn't been to a bowl game since 2002, but they have 5 wins and are ranked ahead of each of their five remaining opponents.
Well, except for those pesky Rice Owls.
And they're at FAU, while essentially holding similar positions in the ranking. But yes, they certainly look like they'll be bowl eligible this year.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - Afflicted - 10-13-2013 09:06 AM
I have a very strong feeling that we'll destroy both NMSU and UTEP. The offense will run on all cylinders and the defense will be outstanding, as they've been all year long. I see the offense breaking through and putting up a lot of points on both opponents. We'll see.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - temchugh - 10-13-2013 12:57 PM
This question is very early, but if I wait, it should be moot in two weeks after we beat N. Texas.
If we loose to North Texas, but beat Tulane, and end up in a three-way tie for the West Division (Tulane already beat N. Texas), what is the tie breaker?
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - lou - 10-13-2013 01:04 PM
(10-13-2013 12:57 PM)temchugh Wrote: If we loose to North Texas, but beat Tulane, and end up in a three-way tie for the West Division (Tulane already beat N. Texas), what is the tie breaker?
Whoever is ranked higher in the BCS standings will go to the championship game.
![[Image: CHEWING-GUM-ON-HIS-PUBIS.gif]](http://cdn.uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/CHEWING-GUM-ON-HIS-PUBIS.gif)
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - owl40 - 10-13-2013 03:17 PM
I hope we use these next two weeks to get young guys some snaps/experience and get some guys who are a bit banged up (e.g., Ross) some rest. I'm sure that will have some complaining when we play down to our competition when results risk not winning as much as some would like but that young gun experience in next couple games before the last four games should pay some dividends to keep bigger goals in tact.
I don't care if we beat NMSU by 1 or 50..would rather see McH get some confidence back, see DJ out there showing us the 2H in bowl game was not fluke, Davis, and Dillard carry some load, and a few key catches by Hull, Celia, and Parks. Those are the guys we need to step-up around Ross, Taylor and company for remainder of season.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-14-2013 03:19 PM
My latest ratings with respect to Rice, C-USA and opponents (125 FBS teams only):
C-USA
East
60. East Carolina (4-2)
61. Marshall (4-2)
103. Fla. Atlantic (2-5)
114. Middle Tennessee (3-4)
117. UAB (2-4)
118. Fla. Int'l (1-5)
123. So. Miss. (0-5)
West
62. Rice (4-2)
73. Tulane (5-2)
81. North Texas (3-3)
102. UTSA (2-5)
110. Tulsa (2-4)
113. UTEP (2-5)
116. La. Tech (2-4)
OTHERS:
14. Texas A&M (5-1)
17. Houston (5-0)
85. Kansas (2-3)
121. New Mexico St. (0-6)
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - OldOwl - 10-14-2013 08:30 PM
Pretty pathetic at only 62.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - OptimisticOwl - 10-14-2013 09:21 PM
Where were we to start the season?
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-14-2013 11:50 PM
(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - smackdaddy - 10-14-2013 11:57 PM
(10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-15-2013 12:56 AM
(10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?
Finishing at 10-2 likely would place Rice between 30-35.
Sagarin Week 7 - I45owl - 10-15-2013 08:24 AM
(10-15-2013 12:56 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:(10-14-2013 11:57 PM)smackdaddy Wrote:(10-14-2013 11:50 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:(10-14-2013 09:21 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: Where were we to start the season?
My system does not come into play until teams play 4 games. Prior to that, there is insufficient data (the previous season is irrelevant).
But, the last three weeks, the Owls have moved from #75 to #68 to #62.
Considering the poor rankings of our future opponents (and excluding a bowl game opponent cuz it's a total wild card), what do you think would be the highest ranking we could attain if we were to win out? Top 30? Top 40? Top 50?? What's the best case scenario?
Finishing at 10-2 likely would place Rice between 30-35.
That's more or less where my pre-season expectations for Rice were, perhaps a little higher, but mot much. My expectations now, I'd be surprised if they wound up there.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - JOwl - 10-15-2013 09:19 AM
(10-13-2013 08:31 AM)MemOwl Wrote: I think the obvious headline to this is that while we have "taken care of business" against teams ranked from 103 to 124, including two road wins, our margins of victory are 3, 4, 6, and 9 points, implying that we are more of that group than many of us would like to be.
EDIT: two quick predictions
1. If we get single digit wins against NMSU and/or UTEP, the dissatisfaction with coaching will only increase, notwithstanding various win streak lengths and "best starting record since nineteen ought whatever" commentary from the SID. NMSU and UTEP are, by any objective standard, so bad that a team that claims to be on the good side of mediocre should just handle them.
On the plus side, using Sagarin's ratings, the expected outcomes @ NMSU and home vs UTEP would be wins of 22 and 20 points, respectively. Whereas against those teams ranked 103-125, we would expect wins of 9, 2, 2, and 6 points (reflecting where game was played). That's right about on target*.
So the good news is that there's no reason to expect single-digit wins.
(* Don't give the ratings method too much credit, as I'm testing it against its own data. But it does at least pass the back-testing smell test).
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - MemOwl - 10-15-2013 11:39 AM
(10-15-2013 09:19 AM)JOwl Wrote: Whereas against those teams ranked 103-125, we would expect wins of 9, 2, 2, and 6 points (reflecting where game was played). That's right about on target*.
So the good news is that there's no reason to expect single-digit wins.
(* Don't give the ratings method too much credit, as I'm testing it against its own data. But it does at least pass the back-testing smell test).
But the bad news is that Sagarin is therefor correct to slot us in the 70's, whereas we aspire to be 50 or higher.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - Hambone10 - 10-15-2013 12:07 PM
I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.
RE: Sagarin Week 7 - I45owl - 10-15-2013 12:19 PM
(10-15-2013 12:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: I think the biggest buoy to our season is UH at 17. I find that completely unbelievable. That isn't a top 20 squad over there and I think they will get brought back to reality over the next few weeks. Not bad, but more realistic... probably around 40-50 would be my guess... and I suspect that will hurt us.
I think they're better than that... maybe 25-30 range. The contributions from their freshmen in the game against Rice were very promising for their future. I wonder if their success has surprised even the coaching staff.