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Sagarin Week 6 - MemOwl - 10-06-2013 11:06 AM
3-2
76 Rice (up one notch from last week)
84 North Texas
107 Tulane
120 UTSA
136 UAB (hammered for home loss to FAU)
143 La Tech
156 UTEP
204 NMSU
I really hope we beat New Mexico State
Our past schedule now stands at
9 TAMU
59 Houston
97 Florida Atlantic
106 Tulsa
110 Kansas
for comparison, here is the Ivy League in today's Sagarin
128 Harvard
135 Yale
159 Brown
166 Princeton
185 Penn
189 Dartmouth
213 Cornell
245 Columbia
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - ChicagoOwl (BS '07) - 10-06-2013 11:33 AM
Tulane beat UNT but is that far behind it?
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-06-2013 06:40 PM
Just updated my ratings (125 FBS teams only):
49. East Carolina
60. Marshall
68. Rice
86. North Texas
88. Tulane
97. UTSA
101. Middle Tennessee
103. Florida Atlantic
113. Tulsa
114. Louisiana Tech
116. Florida International
118. UAB
119. UTEP
123. Southern Miss
Also:
17. Texas A&M
19. Houston
76. Kansas
121. New Mexico State
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - baker-'13 - 10-06-2013 08:06 PM
(10-06-2013 06:40 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: Just updated my ratings (125 FBS teams only):
49. East Carolina
60. Marshall
68. Rice
86. North Texas
88. Tulane
97. UTSA
101. Middle Tennessee
103. Florida Atlantic
113. Tulsa
114. Louisiana Tech
116. Florida International
118. UAB
119. UTEP
123. Southern Miss
Also:
17. Texas A&M
19. Houston
76. Kansas
121. New Mexico State
Out of curiosity, WRC: do you have a means of testing hypotheticals for the rankings computation? If so, how would these change if we'd managed to beat UH? (If you need an approximate score for it...assume we successfully score the touchdown as time expires to win: 32-31).
I ask because Colley (here), one of the rankings used in the BCS, has such a feature, and flipping the UH result puts us #25 in his rankings (up from #49), just behind A&M. I'm interested to see if the change is of similar magnitude across other rankings.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-06-2013 08:14 PM
Does anybody do rankings with standard deviations as well as raw score? I'd really be interested in seeing that data.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-06-2013 09:50 PM
(10-06-2013 08:06 PM)baker-13 Wrote:(10-06-2013 06:40 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: Just updated my ratings (125 FBS teams only):
49. East Carolina
60. Marshall
68. Rice
86. North Texas
88. Tulane
97. UTSA
101. Middle Tennessee
103. Florida Atlantic
113. Tulsa
114. Louisiana Tech
116. Florida International
118. UAB
119. UTEP
123. Southern Miss
Also:
17. Texas A&M
19. Houston
76. Kansas
121. New Mexico State
Out of curiosity, WRC: do you have a means of testing hypotheticals for the rankings computation? If so, how would these change if we'd managed to beat UH? (If you need an approximate score for it...assume we successfully score the touchdown as time expires to win: 32-31).
I ask because Colley (here), one of the rankings used in the BCS, has such a feature, and flipping the UH result puts us #25 in his rankings (up from #49), just behind A&M. I'm interested to see if the change is of similar magnitude across other rankings.
I'll run the numbers in the morning when I have my computer in front of me. My guess is that it would be somewhere between #45 and #50.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - 75src - 10-06-2013 10:03 PM
It looks like a very evenly matched big game coming up for Harvard-Yale, probably for the championship.
(10-06-2013 11:06 AM)MemOwl Wrote: 3-2
76 Rice (up one notch from last week)
84 North Texas
107 Tulane
120 UTSA
136 UAB (hammered for home loss to FAU)
143 La Tech
156 UTEP
204 NMSU
I really hope we beat New Mexico State
Our past schedule now stands at
9 TAMU
59 Houston
97 Florida Atlantic
106 Tulsa
110 Kansas
for comparison, here is the Ivy League in today's Sagarin
128 Harvard
135 Yale
159 Brown
166 Princeton
185 Penn
189 Dartmouth
213 Cornell
245 Columbia
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-07-2013 04:11 PM
(10-06-2013 08:06 PM)baker-13 Wrote: Out of curiosity, WRC: do you have a means of testing hypotheticals for the rankings computation? If so, how would these change if we'd managed to beat UH? (If you need an approximate score for it...assume we successfully score the touchdown as time expires to win: 32-31).
I ask because Colley (here), one of the rankings used in the BCS, has such a feature, and flipping the UH result puts us #25 in his rankings (up from #49), just behind A&M. I'm interested to see if the change is of similar magnitude across other rankings.
Rice would be #51 (up from #68).
Massey's Combined Ranking has Rice at #65. He should be adding my rating into the "Borg" later today.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-07-2013 04:16 PM
And, by the way, my conference ratings are depressing, as C-USA (Sun Belt 2.0) is actually worse, right now, than Sun Belt 3.0.
1. Pacific 12 (29-5) 38.6206
2. SEC (33-7) 32.5410
3. ACC (32-9) 24.9209
4. Big Ten (36-11) 21.4507
5. Big 12 (22-8) 19.4085
6. AAC (18-19) -6.8683
7. MWC (18-23) -17.7467
8. Sun Belt (14-19) -27.4564
9. MAC (19-29) -27.9370
10. C-USA (17-34) -32.8815
---------------------------
Independents (13-20) -23.7392
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - waltgreenberg - 10-07-2013 04:28 PM
USAToday has us ranked as the #66th team in the coiuntry, and 7th best in Texas, with ECU at #39, Marshall at #50, UH at #59, Tulane at #70 and Tulsa falling to #90...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/07/fbs-reranking-1-125-week-six-usa-today/2936787/
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-07-2013 05:52 PM
(10-07-2013 04:16 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: And, by the way, my conference ratings are depressing, as C-USA (Sun Belt 2.0) is actually worse, right now, than Sun Belt 3.0.
1. Pacific 12 (29-5) 38.6206
2. SEC (33-7) 32.5410
3. ACC (32-9) 24.9209
4. Big Ten (36-11) 21.4507
5. Big 12 (22-8) 19.4085
6. AAC (18-19) -6.8683
7. MWC (18-23) -17.7467
8. Sun Belt (14-19) -27.4564
9. MAC (19-29) -27.9370
10. C-USA (17-34) -32.8815
---------------------------
Independents (13-20) -23.7392
Maybe we don't want to upgrade to the Sun Belt.
That really is a sad commentary on CUSA.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - mrbig - 10-07-2013 11:29 PM
(10-07-2013 04:16 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: And, by the way, my conference ratings are depressing, as C-USA (Sun Belt 2.0) is actually worse, right now, than Sun Belt 3.0.
1. Pacific 12 (29-5) 38.6206
2. SEC (33-7) 32.5410
3. ACC (32-9) 24.9209
4. Big Ten (36-11) 21.4507
5. Big 12 (22-8) 19.4085
6. AAC (18-19) -6.8683
7. MWC (18-23) -17.7467
8. Sun Belt (14-19) -27.4564
9. MAC (19-29) -27.9370
10. C-USA (17-34) -32.8815
---------------------------
Independents (13-20) -23.7392
So much for mocking the AAC...
Sagarin Week 6 - I45owl - 10-08-2013 12:38 AM
(10-07-2013 04:16 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: And, by the way, my conference ratings are depressing, as C-USA (Sun Belt 2.0) is actually worse, right now, than Sun Belt 3.0.
But, on the bright side, for the first time in years, we aren't embarrassed by the WAC ranking in front of us.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - 07owl - 10-08-2013 02:58 PM
Projected BCS Rankings here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs/#
Check out who's right ahead of us
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - OwlFan98 - 10-08-2013 03:36 PM
(10-08-2013 02:58 PM)07owl Wrote: Projected BCS Rankings here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs/#
Check out who's right ahead of us
And, for that matter, who's right behind us.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - mbrindley - 10-08-2013 05:33 PM
(10-08-2013 03:36 PM)OwlFan98 Wrote:(10-08-2013 02:58 PM)07owl Wrote: Projected BCS Rankings here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs/#
Check out who's right ahead of us
And, for that matter, who's right behind us.
Arkansas, Mississippi State and Vandy are also behind us.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - smackdaddy - 10-08-2013 06:15 PM
(10-08-2013 03:36 PM)OwlFan98 Wrote:(10-08-2013 02:58 PM)07owl Wrote: Projected BCS Rankings here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs/#
Check out who's right ahead of us
And, for that matter, who's right behind us.
Interesting--and relevant this week--who's tied at #101.
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - I45owl - 10-09-2013 09:07 AM
(10-06-2013 06:40 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: Just updated my ratings (125 FBS teams only):
49. East Carolina
60. Marshall
68. Rice
86. North Texas
88. Tulane
97. UTSA
101. Middle Tennessee
103. Florida Atlantic
113. Tulsa
114. Louisiana Tech
116. Florida International
118. UAB
119. UTEP
123. Southern Miss
Also:
17. Texas A&M
19. Houston
76. Kansas
121. New Mexico State
Revisiting the 11-1 discussion, there are two games on the schedule here against teams within 20 ranking points of Rice. Houston is #19, which is a huge surprise over pre-season rankings. TAMU is #17, Kansas is #76.
Frankly, Tulane and UNT appear stronger than I had expected. IIRC, you posted a pre-season analysis indicating why you thought 7-5 was more likely. Given the current ratings 17-19-76-86-88-97-103-113-114-118-119 against Rice's 68, I could see 9-3 being the most probable outcome with only an outside shot of 11-1. But, my expectations of the rankings at this stage would be more like 5-75-80-{+100}, so I figured TAMU was a likely loss and Rice could beat both of UH and Kansas but would likely split them, with the remainder being teams that Rice should beat. Just given the current rankings, what would you figure the probability of various outcomes would be?
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - WRCisforgotten79 - 10-09-2013 11:58 AM
Worst: 7-5
Best: 10-2
Most likely 8-4
RE: Sagarin Week 6 - OptimisticOwl - 10-09-2013 12:18 PM
(10-09-2013 11:58 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote: Worst: 7-5
Best: 10-2
Most likely 8-4
So what are the three toss-up games, and which two of them are we likely to lose?