+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: Lounge (/forum-564.html)
+---- Forum: Archives (/forum-517.html)
+----- Forum: Realignment Archives (/forum-937.html)
+----- Thread: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 (/thread-553785.html)
TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - ringmaster - 02-08-2012 03:09 PM
I just want to say that is not my intent to make people mad here, just posting what I saw. And the reason I'm posting this is that here is the one of the first reports I've seen looking ahead at the TV deals other than the 1 to 2 million dollar increase for the ACC per school that was reported the other day. If I missed something beforehand I apologize.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/34756677
"One industry analyst texted me saying the addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC alone will worth more than a new Big East deal in 2014."
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - 1845 Bear - 02-08-2012 03:22 PM
If true we can cap the expectations for the lump sum year-to-year average at 28m for the Big East. 2m per school boost per 14 schools in the ACC =28m.
Divide that by the different members in different sports and it is a bad hit for the BE.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - stever20 - 02-08-2012 03:34 PM
sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - omniorange - 02-08-2012 03:42 PM
"The league always claimed New York in its TV footprint. But with Syracuse leaving and San Diego, Boise, Houston and Memphis coming in, how much longer can Big East football be a big presence in the East much less nationwide?"
As I said for months prior to the most recent ACC expansion, the dividing issue for the BE football schools was "identity", it wasn't about being in a hybrid where the bb schools were holding them hostages (the bb schools were willing to cave on just about every scenario as can be seen by what has happened since ACC expansion). There were those football schools that cared about an eastern identity and those that did not.
Cheers,
Neil
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - RobUCF - 02-08-2012 03:45 PM
This article seems to contradict itself.
First, he states that the deal won't be worth more that the $1 - $2 million per year per team that Pitt and Syracuse for ACC members. So, the max would be 14 teams x $2 million = $28 million.
Later in the article he states "The Big East-to-West TV carrier(s) may pay a lot more than $35 million, but it/they won’t overpay."
So, it's less than $28 million but may be alot more than $35 million?
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - b0ndsj0ns - 02-08-2012 03:45 PM
(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - ringmaster - 02-08-2012 03:48 PM
(02-08-2012 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
Great point. +1
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - It's The Talons - 02-08-2012 03:52 PM
(02-08-2012 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
Don't you come in here making all this sense.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - 4x4hokies - 02-08-2012 03:53 PM
Well Pitt and Cuse would be worth 54 million to the ACC if everyone gets a 2 million dollar bump.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - laxtonto - 02-08-2012 03:54 PM
Actually you would look at 2M per team, including Syracuse and Pitt at 14M, that gives a figure of 52M or 14 schools *2 + 2 schools*12....
Regardless the annual threshold for the BE is now going to be much lower than the rumored 1B deal...
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - HawaiiMongoose - 02-08-2012 03:54 PM
(02-08-2012 03:48 PM)ringmaster Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
Great point. +1
+2. I've never bought those numbers. If the new Big East can land a football TV deal anywhere north of $5 million per year per team I'll be impressed.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - 4x4hokies - 02-08-2012 03:56 PM
(02-08-2012 03:54 PM)laxtonto Wrote: Actually you would look at 2M per team, including Syracuse and Pitt at 14M, that gives a figure of 52M or 14 schools *2 + 2 schools*12....
Regardless the annual threshold for the BE is now going to be much lower than the rumored 1B deal...
I assumed 13 million currently to 15 million after.
That is 2 million more for 12 schools and 15 million each for two.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - stever20 - 02-08-2012 04:01 PM
Well, first off, you still have Big East hoops- which is still in the top 3 conferences in the country. Big East tourney at MSG probably the premier conference tournament in the country. Added Texas to the current Big East. Also, for football- Boise- who is a media darling right now in football. Also- the market for live sports is a LOT smaller now than it was 5-6 years ago. The only other media property open in the next 2 years is the BCS package. For a channel like NBCSC- it's critical they get a major property. And- ESPN I would not count out at all. Big East hoops a large part of their history.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - Frank the Tank - 02-08-2012 04:04 PM
(02-08-2012 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
I think it's more of a reflection of the inflation of TV rights fees in general. Long-term, the Pac-12 isn't more valuable than the Big Ten or SEC, but as a result of market timing, the Pac-12 currently has the best TV deal. The current Big East with Pitt, Cuse and WVU is more valuable than the new Big East. However, the new TV deal for the new Big East should easily be more than current TV deal for the current Big East due to rights inflation. $20 million of the $33 million per year that the Big East gets right now from ESPN is for basketball, so the inflation of just the basketball portion alone should take them over the current $33 million total.
Now, the proper question is whether the Big East can come close to the offer that ESPN provided last year, in which case I think your skepticism is warranted. I've never thought that NBC/Comcast will end up being the panacea that many Big East fans have been hoping for.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - Chappy - 02-08-2012 04:05 PM
(02-08-2012 04:01 PM)stever20 Wrote: Well, first off, you still have Big East hoops- which is still in the top 3 conferences in the country. Big East tourney at MSG probably the premier conference tournament in the country.
But can that be said when you replace WVU, Syracuse and Pitt with UCF, Houston and SMU while the ACC tourney now adds Cuse and Pitt to Duke and UNC? Big East basketball is still going to be very valuable, but it has also taken quite a hit.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - orangefan - 02-08-2012 04:06 PM
(02-08-2012 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:(02-08-2012 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote: sorry but I'm not buying it. Big East won't be going backwords in today's TV market. They get 35 m right now. That's just crazy talk.
This is the part of the whole theory that lost me. These same markets you took from us were worth next to nothing for us, and yet they are supposed to increase what you were making with much better brand names in Pitt, Cuse, and WVU? Does changing the patch on the uniform alone make teams worth 8 to 10 million a year when they were worth only slightly over 1 million to us? I'll buy all the wild rumors of 10 million dollar a year per team deals when I see it signed.
I calculate the combined value of Pitt and SU to be $54 million/year = $2 million x 12 schools + $15 million x 2 schools. This is with ESPN holding all of the cards in negotiations, which suggests that the value of the schools may be even greater.
The New Big East will have some advantages in negotiations. It will be able to offer flexible scheduling, including 9 and 10 pm starts on Friday or Saturday nights. It could offer a fairly comprehensive national package of fb and bb games to a network like NBC Sports, which could upgrade some games to NBC and use others to fill schedules on Comcast's regional sports channels. It retains an excellent lineup of hoops schools and still has some football schools with national names. I think an over/under of $10 million/year for all sport schools is a reasonable guess.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - stever20 - 02-08-2012 04:09 PM
love how you convienently left out Memphis from the Big East additions... Big East year in and year out will have more good teams entering the conference tournament. I mean- this year if you look at bracketology- ACC only has like 4-5 tourney teams. Big East has 8, and a few on the outside looking in. Memphis is a tourney team coming in and UCF is getting closer.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - Chappy - 02-08-2012 04:12 PM
(02-08-2012 04:09 PM)stever20 Wrote: love how you convienently left out Memphis from the Big East additions... Big East year in and year out will have more good teams entering the conference tournament. I mean- this year if you look at bracketology- ACC only has like 4-5 tourney teams. Big East has 8, and a few on the outside looking in. Memphis is a tourney team coming in and UCF is getting closer.
Heh heh, in all honesty, I forgot about them. :muttering:
But my point remains that the ACC tourney could overshadow the Big East tourney given the changes.
(and on a side note, it will be interesting to see how the Big East sets up a 17 team tournament)
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - IceJus10 - 02-08-2012 04:15 PM
I don't put too much stock in Dodd anymore, he's been so wrong about so many things in the past six months. First of all -- television revenues in the six years since the last time the Big East had its contract renegotiation rates have gone up exponentially, no matter the conference or its makeup, that's just the marketplace.
So to say the current contract would be less per year than the old contract is a joke! Capping it at the worth of Pitt and Syracuse, would make the Big East contracts worth less per year than the Mountain West, C-USA, and MAC for all-sports; and less than the some mid-majors in non-football, and we ALL know that's just not reality.
To put it in perspective, partial tier 2 rights of Big East women's and five Big East men's games gets more than $20-million a year currently from CBS... I cannot even begin to fathom a decrease in the all-sport contract to roughly that level considering the conference will still have 8 or 9 regular basketball tourney teams, not to mention the women's strength -- then add the fact the football product being pitched to television increases the package from 3 games a week to five (potentially six) and offers the rights to a conference football championship game.
I don't think a single network pays a billion dollars for the conference, so I agree partially, but I think it will be a piecemeal deal and four networks have showed interest in getting a piece of the conference -- that mean's there is value and the price will not go down... I've been saying $10-14 million for all-sport (football), $7-10 million for football only, and $4-6 million for all-sport (no football).
The NFL owners at their meetings over the Super Bowl week approved making the Thursday night game basically a weekly event. There are rumors they plan to sell those games and that NBC wants those rights to anchor NBC Sports Network -- the NFL is worried the channel is not a big enough draw. ESPN has an interest in making sure NBC doesn't add to the NBC-SN lineup a major conference with major markets... NBC has already stolen MLS away from Fox, expanded the NHL deal to the tunes of billions; negotiated PGA and Champions tour events (through its sister network Golf Channel)... If you don't think NBC wants college football and basketball to add to it's Notre Dame lineup, you're mistaken and ESPN has a vested interest in making them appear meager in the eyes of the NFL to avoid competition. So beyond what the Big East brings to the table, they could be a winner because of circumstance.
RE: TV industry analyst: ACC additions worth more than BE deal 2014 - 10thMountain - 02-08-2012 04:16 PM
I think the main thing here is that right now, we have no idea what the final figures will be.
The ACC, NBE, B12 and SEC all have contracts to renegotiate because of realignment. Being the conservative lot they are, I imagine the presidents will sit back and wait to see who really does/does not come out ahead before deciding to make any big moves.