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RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - Owl 69/70/75 - 08-05-2009 12:09 PM

(08-05-2009 11:14 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Here is how the Health Care for America Now coalition, an advocacy group for the bill, responds to each of these points. It also contains a link to the bill itself.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/5/104914/7895

I would describe most of the "responses" as non-responsive to the real issues. To be fair, a couple do seem to allay a couple of concerns I have. But most simply dance around the issues. Too much of this is the mushroom treatment, "Keep them in the dark and feed them b***s***."

If you are wedded to socialized medicine as an absolute imperative, it's easy to read over this and complacently assume that the issues are addressed. But in most cases, they've been glossed over rather than addressed. If you're inherently skeptical, particularly of anything that gives government more power, you've got to set the plow a little deeper.

I'm sorry, but it's going to take better analysis than this to satisfy me.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - RiceDoc - 08-05-2009 12:28 PM

So, Owl 69/70/75, is it fair to say that the response, "That just ain't so" just ain't good enough in a serious discussion?

BTW, I agree with you - none of the points of concern, whether real or not, have been addressed by this blow by blow "refutation".


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - gsloth - 08-05-2009 12:33 PM

(08-05-2009 11:14 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Here is how the Health Care for America Now coalition, an advocacy group for the bill, responds to each of these points. It also contains a link to the bill itself.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/5/104914/7895

Feh, there's a lot of they said/they said to both of this. Without having looked at the bill (not enough time right now, though I have scanned a prior version), I thought neither side did a good job providing detail to back up their claims. Rather, it's just one side's interpretation of the language.

What it potentially suggests to me is that the language could be open to interpretation in many cases. If I have time, I'll look at it more closely.

Taking just one example from HCAN and the response it provided, I have to ask - why is THIS in a health care bill? Very few private plans actually cover this in my experience. (I cannot think of one in a health plan I've ever had offered to me.) If anything, it comes through an EAP (employee assistance program), but even that is rudimentary in what it offers.

Quote:489: Government will cover marriage and family therapy. Government intervenes in your marriage."

TRUTH: Covering marriage and family therapy, as many private insurance plans do, does not mean that the government "intervenes in your marriage." The types of individuals who are recognized as therapists are clearly defined on page 491; in brief, professionals only, not bureaucrats.

Do others see this in your normal private health care plan? This seems like overreach to me, at a most basic level. Why am I paying for this universally?


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - texd - 08-05-2009 12:39 PM

(08-05-2009 12:09 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 11:14 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Here is how the Health Care for America Now coalition, an advocacy group for the bill, responds to each of these points. It also contains a link to the bill itself.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/5/104914/7895

I would describe most of the "responses" as non-responsive to the real issues. To be fair, a couple do seem to allay a couple of concerns I have. But most simply dance around the issues. Too much of this is the mushroom treatment, "Keep them in the dark and feed them b***s***."

If you are wedded to socialized medicine as an absolute imperative, it's easy to read over this and complacently assume that the issues are addressed. But in most cases, they've been glossed over rather than addressed. If you're inherently skeptical, particularly of anything that gives government more power, you've got to set the plow a little deeper.

I'm sorry, but it's going to take better analysis than this to satisfy me.

I'd be curious as to which responses you feel were non-responsive. I'd be happy to elaborate on them where I'm able. Personally I found the responses to be quite on point, and I found the questions raised by the original author to betray a significant lack of understanding of the health care system (the current one).


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - texd - 08-05-2009 01:00 PM

RE Marital/family therapy, the last employer based plan my employer offered from United -- basic PPO -- states in their "What works for you" booklet

Quote:We understand that finding the right kind of solution can make all the difference. Your behavioral health benefits include coverage for the following types of services:
  • Accute ipatient care
  • Residential treatement
  • Partial day treatment
  • Medication Management
  • Halfway facilities
  • Alcohol and drug dependency programs
  • Family, marital and outpatient therapy
  • Individual outpatient therapy

The only place that family therapy was covered by exclusions was that they don't pay for court-ordered mental health treatment unless pre-approved by them.

And our carrier before that (yes I'm a pack rat), Humana PPO, had no limitations on therapy except that they only paid for a combined 20 individual or joint sessions a year and that sessions could not last over 60 minutes each.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - JOwl - 08-05-2009 01:14 PM

(08-05-2009 12:39 PM)texd Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 12:09 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 11:14 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Here is how the Health Care for America Now coalition, an advocacy group for the bill, responds to each of these points. It also contains a link to the bill itself.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/5/104914/7895

I would describe most of the "responses" as non-responsive to the real issues. To be fair, a couple do seem to allay a couple of concerns I have. But most simply dance around the issues. Too much of this is the mushroom treatment, "Keep them in the dark and feed them b***s***."

If you are wedded to socialized medicine as an absolute imperative, it's easy to read over this and complacently assume that the issues are addressed. But in most cases, they've been glossed over rather than addressed. If you're inherently skeptical, particularly of anything that gives government more power, you've got to set the plow a little deeper.

I'm sorry, but it's going to take better analysis than this to satisfy me.

I'd be curious as to which responses you feel were non-responsive. I'd be happy to elaborate on them where I'm able. Personally I found the responses to be quite on point, and I found the questions raised by the original author to betray a significant lack of understanding of the health care system (the current one).

I've only looked at the first two claims, but I'd have to think that in some cases the author of the original questions was willfully misrepresenting the text of the bill -- either that or I've got a bill with different pagination from his.

In my mind, the 2nd question ("page 29") is the more obviously nonsensical of the two.

page 28
21 (c ) REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO COST-SHARING
22 AND MINIMUM ACTUARIAL VALUE.—
23 (1) NO COST-SHARING FOR PREVENTIVE SERV24
ICES.—There shall be no cost-sharing under the es25
sential benefits package for preventive items and

page 29
1 services (as specified under the benefit standards),
2 including well baby and well child care.
3 (2) ANNUAL LIMITATION.—
4 (A) ANNUAL LIMITATION.—The cost-shar5
ing incurred under the essential benefits pack6
age with respect to an individual (or family) for
7 a year does not exceed the applicable level spec8
ified in subparagraph (B).
9 (B) APPLICABLE LEVEL.—The applicable
10 level specified in this subparagraph for Y1 is
11 $5,000 for an individual and $10,000 for a
12 family. Such levels shall be increased (rounded
13 to the nearest $100) for each subsequent year
14 by the annual percentage increase in the Con15
sumer Price Index (United States city average)
16 applicable to such year.
17 (C ) USE OF COPAYMENTS.—In establishing
18 cost-sharing levels for basic, enhanced, and pre19
mium plans under this subsection, the Sec20
retary shall, to the maximum extent possible,
21 use only copayments and not coinsurance.
...

How someone truthfully reads benefits rationing into that is completely beyond me. I can only assume they're referring to §122(c )(2), which refers to an "ANNUAL LIMITATION", and they've read it ass-backwards. The Annual Limitation is clearly applicable to the "Cost Sharing" which is defined in §100(c )(4): "The term ‘‘cost-sharing’’ includes deductibles, coinsurance, copayments, and similar charges but does not include premiums or any network payment differential for covered services or spending for non-covered services."
In other words, the "Annual Limitation" is an out-of-pocket maximum; it backstops the amount the insured will have to pay to no more than $5,000 - $10,000/year (inflation adjusted), regardless of the amount of health care services they receive.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - tanq_tonic - 08-05-2009 01:51 PM

(08-05-2009 10:43 AM)JOwl Wrote:  I think you're conflating two separate issues here. The first is whether or not the costs of the SPR should be considered an oil subsidy. The second is whether or not the SPR is a good thing.

The problem is that you attempt to separate the two; you cannot.

SPR *is* a strategic necessity. By buying and obtaining the goods for the reserve, you say "subsidy".

By that logic, all refiners and providers of titanium are provided subsidies due to the sales to the govt for strategic defense purposes.

And, as noted above, "subsidies" are provided to asphalt and concrete manufacturers for the supplies that they deliver to the DOT.

Sorry, when you reduce your contention, it does not make sense.

Quote:I think the answer to the first is yes. The Federal government is spending tax dollars to (partially) insure us against shocks in the world oil market and to protect our oil supplies from manipulation by foreign powers. If we didn't need oil, we wouldn't be stockpiling it, and we wouldn't be paying for it. Clearly, holding the SPR is one of those "costs of doing business" as long as we're dependent on oil.

Actually you tend to leave out the national defense issues involved.

Quote:The issue, then, is how the costs are borne. Currently this cost of stabilizing our oil supply isn't passed through to the consumers (either civilian or military), but is rather borne by the government.

At market rates for that transaction.

Quote:This keeps the price of oil below its true costs, distorting the market and economics for oil.

Wow.... have you checked your numbers? The SPR has a maximal size of 722 million barrels. Daily oil usage is about 18-23 million bbls/day.

So the SPR is about a 30 day supply.

SPR was created in 1975 --- 34 years ago. By my count that is about 12,500 to 12,800 days ago. Much of the initial capacity was filled in the first 5 years of the program.

Much of the purchases now are due to "topping off", as some of the petroleum is released. The purchases on an annual basis probably amount to less than a country-day of usage.

So, do you *really* think that purchases of 1/1000th of the total inflow to the US (not to mention world usage, which would be probably 1/10,000th of the total world yearly flow) really "distorts" the economics of the commodity that much? Cmon, be serious......

Quote:If this cost were instead passed through to the consumer, better economic decisions with respect to oil would be made.

The "cost" to me represents a strategic investment; both economic and military. I don't mind having the SPR, and the nomnal cost is that. Once you agree that the SPR is a "good idea", then the gubbmint simply becomes a market particpant.

Quote:And in my personal opinion, if that subsidy were then redirected to subsidize alternative energy then more's the better.

I think that we as a nation should invest in all means to provide cheap and readily available sources of energy. But your attempt to portray the SPR as a subsidy falls well short of the mark.

Quote:Agreed, the SPR is certainly nowhere near the top of oil subsidies, but it happened to be part of the analysis at the link I provided.

ANd one that you readily highlighted as a somewhat egregious example of a subsidy.

Quote:For discussion purposes, it does have the allure of being one of the more easily-quantified subsidies after the direct ones listed in the EIA report.

And you consistently feel the need to refer to it as a "subsidy"...... lol.

Couldnt pull the report you linked to; have to register. But, how much do you want to bet that when I do pull that up that the "tax based" subsidies to oil that are listed (that make up 2.0 billion of the 2.1 billion) are nothing more than the accelerated depreciation that I readily admit to earlier. Next, when that is the case, are you prepared to counter how "sped up" depreciation is a "subsidy"?


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - OptimisticOwl - 08-05-2009 03:35 PM

(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  "tax based" subsidies to oil that are listed (that make up 2.0 billion of the 2.1 billion) are nothing more than the accelerated depreciation that I readily admit to earlier.

Isn't that amount roughly equal to the subsidy of the US auto industry called "Cash for Clunkers"?


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - tanq_tonic - 08-05-2009 03:59 PM

(08-05-2009 03:35 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  "tax based" subsidies to oil that are listed (that make up 2.0 billion of the 2.1 billion) are nothing more than the accelerated depreciation that I readily admit to earlier.

Isn't that amount roughly equal to the subsidy of the US auto industry called "Cash for Clunkers"?

The idiocy is that many refer to sped-up depreciation as "subsidy". All that is is a timing issue; if I spend 2 million to make x, then at some point over y years I can write off the investment made in the project.

Somehow the grandiose "subsidy" is that the number y is z, instead of z + (some other positive integer).

On that basis, the ability to write off my capital investment in a new computer for a solo practice in 1 year as opposed to 3 is a "subsidy". In my view, if the gubbmint said that I can write off 1.5x the amount, *that* would be a transfer worthy of the term "subsidy". Or if the gubbmint belayed completely some tax. But not timing issues.

To be honest, I still have not signed up to see the report, so I might be speculating here on what the executive sumamry reports as "tax subsidies". But, I have a strong suspicion that when I do take a look at it the lion's share of moolah in that amount will be related to timing issues as opposed to transfer issues.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - JOwl - 08-05-2009 04:02 PM

(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 10:43 AM)JOwl Wrote:  I think you're conflating two separate issues here. The first is whether or not the costs of the SPR should be considered an oil subsidy. The second is whether or not the SPR is a good thing.

The problem is that you attempt to separate the two; you cannot.

SPR *is* a strategic necessity. By buying and obtaining the goods for the reserve, you say "subsidy".

By that logic, all refiners and providers of titanium are provided subsidies due to the sales to the govt for strategic defense purposes.

And, as noted above, "subsidies" are provided to asphalt and concrete manufacturers for the supplies that they deliver to the DOT.

Sorry, when you reduce your contention, it does not make sense.
I think I'm not being clear here. It's the construction and maintenance of the SPR as well as the lost interest income on everything associated with the SPR (construction costs plus purchase price for the oil) that I'm considering a subsidy. I'm not saying the government is subsidizing producers by purchasing oil for the SPR-- the oil purchased is an asset the government receives in return for its expenditure; to the extent it holds its value there's no net cost associated with it (except for the opportunity cost of capital from my prior sentence).
What I'm saying is that the government is subsidizing consumers of oil by mitigating our exposure to risks associated with oil dependence. The entire SPR enterprise is a (minimal) effort at insuring ourselves against those risks. If, for example, the government covered collision insurance for everyone's car (thereby making car ownership less risky), wouldn't you consider that a subsidy for cars?

Note: I don't see DoD use of titanium as analogous. If I were saying that US military usage of oil is an oil subsidy, then I'd see the relationship -- but I'm not. I'm solely talking about US government expenditures related to mitigating threats to our uniterrupted access to oil.
-----------------------------

(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  
Quote:I think the answer to the first is yes. The Federal government is spending tax dollars to (partially) insure us against shocks in the world oil market and to protect our oil supplies from manipulation by foreign powers. If we didn't need oil, we wouldn't be stockpiling it, and we wouldn't be paying for it. Clearly, holding the SPR is one of those "costs of doing business" as long as we're dependent on oil.

Actually you tend to leave out the national defense issues involved.

Quote:The issue, then, is how the costs are borne. Currently this cost of stabilizing our oil supply isn't passed through to the consumers (either civilian or military), but is rather borne by the government.

At market rates for that transaction.

Quote:This keeps the price of oil below its true costs, distorting the market and economics for oil.

Wow.... have you checked your numbers? The SPR has a maximal size of 722 million barrels. Daily oil usage is about 18-23 million bbls/day.

So the SPR is about a 30 day supply.

SPR was created in 1975 --- 34 years ago. By my count that is about 12,500 to 12,800 days ago. Much of the initial capacity was filled in the first 5 years of the program.

Much of the purchases now are due to "topping off", as some of the petroleum is released. The purchases on an annual basis probably amount to less than a country-day of usage.

So, do you *really* think that purchases of 1/1000th of the total inflow to the US (not to mention world usage, which would be probably 1/10,000th of the total world yearly flow) really "distorts" the economics of the commodity that much? Cmon, be serious......

Quote:If this cost were instead passed through to the consumer, better economic decisions with respect to oil would be made.

The "cost" to me represents a strategic investment; both economic and military. I don't mind having the SPR, and the nomnal cost is that. Once you agree that the SPR is a "good idea", then the gubbmint simply becomes a market particpant.

As for whether the costs related the SPR's role in securing our oil supplies significant, all I can do is point again to Koplow's estimate of the annual program cost in his report -- $2-$5 bn annually (estimated as of 1995). You asked for subsidies, this is one, if not a very big one.

As I mentioned before, you're focusing on the little guy among the subsidy estimates in that section of Koplow's report. The SPR is dwarfed by the estimated $10bn - $23bn for defense of oil shipments in the Persian Gulf (estimated as of 1995).
-----------------------------

(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  
Quote:And in my personal opinion, if that subsidy were then redirected to subsidize alternative energy then more's the better.

I think that we as a nation should invest in all means to provide cheap and readily available sources of energy. But your attempt to portray the SPR as a subsidy falls well short of the mark.


Quote:Agreed, the SPR is certainly nowhere near the top of oil subsidies, but it happened to be part of the analysis at the link I provided.

ANd one that you readily highlighted as a somewhat egregious example of a subsidy.

Quote:For discussion purposes, it does have the allure of being one of the more easily-quantified subsidies after the direct ones listed in the EIA report.

And you consistently feel the need to refer to it as a "subsidy"...... lol.
You'll note that I didn't refer to it as an "egregious" subsidy, but as one of "the most visible". By "most visible", I meant most obvious and easiest to discern (as opposed to, say, the environmental-cost subsidies, which I consider more subtle and harder to make out). Clearly I was wrong about it's obviousness, as I've failed to get your agreement the costs associated with running the program serve to subsidize oil consumption by removing some of the risks of relying on oil.
---------------------

(08-05-2009 01:51 PM)tanq_tonic Wrote:  Couldnt pull the report you linked to; have to register. But, how much do you want to bet that when I do pull that up that the "tax based" subsidies to oil that are listed (that make up 2.0 billion of the 2.1 billion) are nothing more than the accelerated depreciation that I readily admit to earlier. Next, when that is the case, are you prepared to counter how "sped up" depreciation is a "subsidy"?
The Oil and Gas Journal article is available through Factiva, if you have a subscription there. Here's a better link to the EIA report that includes the whole thing, and not just the exec summary from my original post:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/subsidy2/index.html

Yes, the vast majority of the tax benefits from the EIA report are tax deferrals and not credits or deductions. Am I prepared to argue that tax deferrals are a subsidy? Yes. Tax deferrals provide the taxpayer benefits in two ways: 1. (the main one) The deferral itself is valuable, due to the time value of the money not paid to the government. The true value is the value of the tax deferred less the PV of the additional amount owed in future years due to the deferral. 2 (secondary) The availability of the deferrals (assuming they are discrectionary) allows the taxpayer to accelerate expenses into periods when they have profits, potentially avoiding loss of the tax benefit that would occur if the expenses were recognized in periods of no profits.

And to put a bit of a finer point on it, the taxpayers appear to have taken advantage of the deferrals. Would they have done so if the deferrals didn't confer an economic benefit?

But pointing out that the benefits come from tax deferrals does raise a valid point. Digging into the details, I take issue with the EIA's methodology. Apparently, they've simply taken OMB numbers (which determine the net of current-year tax deferrals offset by additional current-year tax owed due to prior-year deferrals) and called those tax subsidies. A much better approach would be to measure it as I've described in tax benefit 1 above -- as the difference between current year deferrals and the present value of additional future year taxes caused by the current year deferrals.
Unfortunately, the data in the report provides very little useful info for estimating that value. The current-year tax deferrals are probably much more than $2 bn, since as I explained the $2bn is a net amount. But the net present value of the deferral of course would only be a fraction of the current-year tax deferrals.

So in the end, there's a subsidy but I don't have the data to quantify it.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - Owl 69/70/75 - 08-05-2009 05:27 PM

(08-05-2009 12:39 PM)texd Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 12:09 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 11:14 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Here is how the Health Care for America Now coalition, an advocacy group for the bill, responds to each of these points. It also contains a link to the bill itself.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/5/104914/7895
I would describe most of the "responses" as non-responsive to the real issues. To be fair, a couple do seem to allay a couple of concerns I have. But most simply dance around the issues. Too much of this is the mushroom treatment, "Keep them in the dark and feed them b***s***."
If you are wedded to socialized medicine as an absolute imperative, it's easy to read over this and complacently assume that the issues are addressed. But in most cases, they've been glossed over rather than addressed. If you're inherently skeptical, particularly of anything that gives government more power, you've got to set the plow a little deeper.
I'm sorry, but it's going to take better analysis than this to satisfy me.
I'd be curious as to which responses you feel were non-responsive. I'd be happy to elaborate on them where I'm able. Personally I found the responses to be quite on point, and I found the questions raised by the original author to betray a significant lack of understanding of the health care system (the current one).

Let's be very clear about one thing. I am no opponent of health care reform. Unlike many (if not most) voices on both sides, I have experienced health care in a number of countries around the world and I have some hand-on experience with what works and what doesn't. Our current approach has legitimate weaknesses; a single-payer or single-provider plan has different weakneses, but their weaknesses are just as real. A universal plan generally does a better job of providing basic care to a large number of people, but a really poor job of delivering anything beyond basic services; the funding is never exactly right, and both widespread waste and excessive rationing result. An approach such as ours does a better job of providing elective care. The best solution is to combine them both in a hybrid free basic/pay elective system. Most of the systems that are regarded as among the best in the world use some form of this.

I have been on record several times here and other places as advocating something like the French two-tier system, where you have an (insurance-funded) "free" system that provides basic care to everyone and comes with the usual queueing problems for anything beyond basic care, and a (privately-funded, either out of pocket or through supplemental insurance) "pay" system which operates pretty much like our current system (only a lot cheaper). I prefer the French approach, where both the "free" and the "pay" systems are insurance-based to something like the German or Swiss systems where the "free" system is governmental, but that's more of a quibble. I could live with either way.

I will agree with you that some of the questions raised are a bit off-the-wall, but you asked about non-responsive answers. Here is one examply (not my favorite, becuase this is hardly a burning issue to me, but it is an easy one to see the evasiveness of the answer):

"95: The Government will pay ACORN and Americorps to sign up individuals for Government-run Health Care plan.
"TRUTH: Page 95 makes no mention of ACORN and Americorps; all it says is that the Commissioner can conduct outreach to vulnerable populations, making them aware of their options."

As I see it, there are three possibilities:
Case 1. The government will absolutely pay ACORN, Americorps, and the like.
Case 2. The government may or may not pay them, but likely will.
Case 3. The government will absolutely not pay them.

The case that is problematical is case 2, and based on paid use of those organizations in other instances where the enabling legislation contained similar words, one can reasonably infer that case 2 would be effectively equivalent to case 1. A truly responsive answer would not only address case 1 but also case 2. I have seen the question phrased to ask about case 2 as well as case 1. Here the question/complaint was reworded a bit to appear to address only case 1 and the response clearly addresses only case 1. The door is left wide open for case 2.

While things like rationing and the ultimate purpose of the Health Benefits Advisory Committee may be inferred rather than stated directly in this bill, if you look at the experience of other government plans you will see that those are reasonable inferences; I think they are dismissed far too casually by the referenced responses. Same for any hints that this is the first step toward a single-payer plan; this bill may not call for that, but it puts into motion events that can ultimately result only in a single-payer (or single-provider) plan. If you disagree, please explain how we stay away from that result once this is in place. I can't imagine a realistic way that we could, and I doubt anyone else can, either.

As I said, if you are so devoted to socialized medicine that you are willing to overlook any objections, it's easy to read the referenced blog and say that you are satisfied. If you are a skeptic like me, particularly when it comes to our government's ability to do anything well, those answers are not sufficient. I gather that Rice Doc is pretty much on that same page.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - RiceDoc - 08-05-2009 06:21 PM

(08-05-2009 05:27 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I will agree with you that some of the questions raised are a bit off-the-wall, but you asked about non-responsive answers. Here is one examply (not my favorite, becuase this is hardly a burning issue to me, but it is an easy one to see the evasiveness of the answer):

"95: The Government will pay ACORN and Americorps to sign up individuals for Government-run Health Care plan.
"TRUTH: Page 95 makes no mention of ACORN and Americorps; all it says is that the Commissioner can conduct outreach to vulnerable populations, making them aware of their options."

As I see it, there are three possibilities:
Case 1. The government will absolutely pay ACORN, Americorps, and the like.
Case 2. The government may or may not pay them, but likely will.
Case 3. The government will absolutely not pay them.

The case that is problematical is case 2 . . .

... If you are a skeptic like me, particularly when it comes to our government's ability to do anything well, those answers are not sufficient. I gather that Rice Doc is pretty much on that same page.

You are correct about that. Moreover, I tend to parse legal writing pretty closely. In the stated answer (and it was the one that jumped off the page the most for me too) there is NO denial of the truth of the assertion. All it does do is say that ACORN, et al are not specifically identified. Thus, there is nothing in that answer that denies case 1 or case 2 or affirmatively agrees with case 3. With such carefully crafted responses, I think it is reasonable to read it to be case 2, with a strong likelihood that case 1 will be the "resolution" to the "issue".


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - Owl 69/70/75 - 08-05-2009 06:31 PM

(08-05-2009 06:21 PM)RiceDoc Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 05:27 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I will agree with you that some of the questions raised are a bit off-the-wall, but you asked about non-responsive answers. Here is one examply (not my favorite, becuase this is hardly a burning issue to me, but it is an easy one to see the evasiveness of the answer):
"95: The Government will pay ACORN and Americorps to sign up individuals for Government-run Health Care plan.
"TRUTH: Page 95 makes no mention of ACORN and Americorps; all it says is that the Commissioner can conduct outreach to vulnerable populations, making them aware of their options."
As I see it, there are three possibilities:
Case 1. The government will absolutely pay ACORN, Americorps, and the like.
Case 2. The government may or may not pay them, but likely will.
Case 3. The government will absolutely not pay them.
The case that is problematical is case 2 . . .
... If you are a skeptic like me, particularly when it comes to our government's ability to do anything well, those answers are not sufficient. I gather that Rice Doc is pretty much on that same page.
You are correct about that. Moreover, I tend to parse legal writing pretty closely. In the stated answer (and it was the one that jumped off the page the most for me too) there is NO denial of the truth of the assertion. All it does do is say that ACORN, et al are not specifically identified. Thus, there is nothing in that answer that denies case 1 or case 2 or affirmatively agrees with case 3. With such carefully crafted responses, I think it is reasonable to read it to be case 2, with a strong likelihood that case 1 will be the "resolution" to the "issue".

Nothing screws up a deal like having a couple of lawyers who actually read the documents, right?
Particularly when we use our legal training to take what it says word-for-word and translate that into what that means in real-world situations.

I suppose it comes down to a matter of trust.
If you trust government, then you have no problem with anything that is in this bill.
So, how much do I trust government? Zero, zip, nada.
I trust Exxon, or in this context an insurance company, far more than I trust the government. Why? Simple, if Exxon screws me, I can go to Shell, a whole lot easier than I can go to another government.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - OptimisticOwl - 08-05-2009 07:45 PM

(08-05-2009 04:02 PM)JOwl Wrote:  What I'm saying is that the government is subsidizing consumers of oil by mitigating our exposure to risks associated with oil dependence. The entire SPR enterprise is a (minimal) effort at insuring ourselves against those risks. If, for example, the government covered collision insurance for everyone's car (thereby making car ownership less risky), wouldn't you consider that a subsidy for cars?

Note: I don't see DoD use of titanium as analogous. If I were saying that US military usage of oil is an oil subsidy, then I'd see the relationship -- but I'm not. I'm solely talking about US government expenditures related to mitigating threats to our uniterrupted access to oil.
-----------------------------

If mitigating the exposure to risk experienced by Americans is the definition of subsidy, then the entire Department of Defense, State Department, etc are subsidies, as well as Customs, Emigration, Border Patrol, the Coast Guard, foreign embassies, etc. Everything they protect us from becomes a subsidized industry. I guess you could define the attempts to exclude illegal immigrants as a subsidy of American labor unions.

Interest comparison to collision coverage, at a time when healthcare coverage is being debated. Is that a subsidy also?

OTOH, if merely getting a financial benefit is a subsidy, then I guess depreciation is a subsidy for builders, the forestry industry, etc.


As near as I can tell, you have used two different definitions of subsidy so far. Maybe it is time you actually defined what you mean by subsidy.

Regardless of how you define subsidy, is it just the "subsidy" for oil that you dislike? Are the subsidies for electric cars, storm windows, corn, milk, coal, whatever, are they all OK? Is this discussion about subsidies or oil?

If your solution (to anything) is to withdraw American "subsidies" to oil (or anything else), does this mean we no longer protect American interests and shipping? If an American oil tanker with an American crew is threatened by pirates, does dispatching a US Navy ship constitute a subsidy? (...to the shores of Tripoli..) How about dispatching American diplomats to negotiate their release? Was the Obama administration subsidizing the news industry by working to free the two journalists from North Korea, or should they have said they have better uses for those dollars? I thought the purpose of our military was to protect Americans and legitimate American interests. Would you withdraw that from selected Americans and selected American interests?

What do/did you want us to do?

It sounds to me that you just don't like oil and Bush, and saying the War in Iraq is a subsidy of oil interests is just a convenient way to hit two birds with one stone. JMO


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - gsloth - 08-05-2009 09:01 PM

(08-05-2009 04:02 PM)JOwl Wrote:  As I mentioned before, you're focusing on the little guy among the subsidy estimates in that section of Koplow's report. The SPR is dwarfed by the estimated $10bn - $23bn for defense of oil shipments in the Persian Gulf (estimated as of 1995).

I thought last night that that figure seemed high to me, and I'm going to call it bunk now. Even the $10B seems too high to me.

The closest I could get was the FY1998 Greenbook from the Office of the Comptroller for the DoD. In it, the oldest budget figures I have are from FY1996. Looking at the breakdown on page 6, total budget authority for DoD in 1996 was $254,417MM. Koplow wants me to believe that it's possible that 10% of the DoD budget was spent on defense of oil shipments (assuming his high number)?

Let's look at the basic breakdown (these are in millions of dollars):

Military Personnel 69,775
Operation & Maintenance 93,658
Procurement 42,420
RDT&E 34,972
Revolving & Mgmt Funds 3,061
Military Construction 6,893
Family Housing 4,260

We can toss out TDT&E and Revolving/Mgmt Funds. What portion of the armed forces were involved in defense of oil? Well, the Army, which has the largest number of personnel, had a minimal presence in the Middle East after the Persian Gulf War. I believe the Army has around 35% of total military headcount, give or take.

The Navy typically had 1 carrier and sometimes 2 carrier groups in the Indian Ocean, sometimes in close proximity to the Gulf (but definitely close enough so it could get there relatively quickly if needed). But never more than 2. Even if they had 2 groups (out of 13 groups at the time, maybe - I'm guessing a bit, because I'm not sure of the decommissioning schedule at the time), each group is not an even 1/13th of total navy personnel. So for ease of estimation, let's just say 10% are involved directly in that mission.

The Air Force had some missions over Iraq, enforcing the No Fly Zone. I'm willing to guess he includes them in his estimates, even though enforcing UN sanctions wasn't about protecting oil supplies, though I'm sure they could have been redirected to that purpose if a conflict arose. But how many were involved? Would it have been even 15% of the Air Force? I doubt it, given the prevalence of other missions they have.

Even if I apply these percentages to the first 2 categories (let's just say 35% army, 35% navy/marines, and 30% air force), and I get:

$136,078MM * (0*.35 + .1*.35 + .15*.3) = $10,886MM

So, I guess his low estimate might be there. But to me, that is his highest possible element. There might be some military construction budget to apply here, but certain not 1,000MM worth. And procurement is hard to estimate.

SIDE NOTE: at this point of writing this, I started scanning through to see if I could find a table listing a breakdown of the procurement categories. And I found on page 13 a listing of the incremental cost for Desert Shield for FY95: $1,048MM. And procurement was actually the biggest component by far. So my estimates on personnel and operations expenses may be too high.

And it gets better. Page 22 has a breakdown of operations & maintenance costs by line of service and department. Procurement breakdown by service is on page 24. And honestly, even with my aggressive allocations with this greater detail, I can barely get $10,000MM. And that's if you assume everyone in theater is there only to protect oil shipments, as opposed to other missions.

So no, I don't buy Koplow's other figures, either. But I don't have access to his detailed analysis.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - gsloth - 08-05-2009 09:13 PM

(08-05-2009 01:00 PM)texd Wrote:  RE Marital/family therapy, the last employer based plan my employer offered from United -- basic PPO -- states in their "What works for you" booklet

Quote:We understand that finding the right kind of solution can make all the difference. Your behavioral health benefits include coverage for the following types of services:
  • Accute ipatient care
  • Residential treatement
  • Partial day treatment
  • Medication Management
  • Halfway facilities
  • Alcohol and drug dependency programs
  • Family, marital and outpatient therapy
  • Individual outpatient therapy

The only place that family therapy was covered by exclusions was that they don't pay for court-ordered mental health treatment unless pre-approved by them.

And our carrier before that (yes I'm a pack rat), Humana PPO, had no limitations on therapy except that they only paid for a combined 20 individual or joint sessions a year and that sessions could not last over 60 minutes each.

You're lucky, then. The behavioral coverage on my wife's policy (which we use) specifically excludes marital and family counseling, among a whole bunch of other stuff. And my wife works for the state government, which I'm sure lots of people assume get gold-plated benefits. Alas, it ain't always so. (Though the vacation schedule is nice. Nothing like a 4-day weekend involving MLK Day - because Lee-Jackson Day is celebrated on the preceding Friday.)


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - JOwl - 08-05-2009 09:55 PM

(08-05-2009 09:01 PM)gsloth Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 04:02 PM)JOwl Wrote:  As I mentioned before, you're focusing on the little guy among the subsidy estimates in that section of Koplow's report. The SPR is dwarfed by the estimated $10bn - $23bn for defense of oil shipments in the Persian Gulf (estimated as of 1995).

I thought last night that that figure seemed high to me, and I'm going to call it bunk now. Even the $10B seems too high to me.

The closest I could get was the FY1998 Greenbook from the Office of the Comptroller for the DoD. In it, the oldest budget figures I have are from FY1996. Looking at the breakdown on page 6, total budget authority for DoD in 1996 was $254,417MM. Koplow wants me to believe that it's possible that 10% of the DoD budget was spent on defense of oil shipments (assuming his high number)?

Let's look at the basic breakdown (these are in millions of dollars):

Military Personnel 69,775
Operation & Maintenance 93,658
Procurement 42,420
RDT&E 34,972
Revolving & Mgmt Funds 3,061
Military Construction 6,893
Family Housing 4,260

We can toss out TDT&E and Revolving/Mgmt Funds. What portion of the armed forces were involved in defense of oil? Well, the Army, which has the largest number of personnel, had a minimal presence in the Middle East after the Persian Gulf War. I believe the Army has around 35% of total military headcount, give or take.

The Navy typically had 1 carrier and sometimes 2 carrier groups in the Indian Ocean, sometimes in close proximity to the Gulf (but definitely close enough so it could get there relatively quickly if needed). But never more than 2. Even if they had 2 groups (out of 13 groups at the time, maybe - I'm guessing a bit, because I'm not sure of the decommissioning schedule at the time), each group is not an even 1/13th of total navy personnel. So for ease of estimation, let's just say 10% are involved directly in that mission.

The Air Force had some missions over Iraq, enforcing the No Fly Zone. I'm willing to guess he includes them in his estimates, even though enforcing UN sanctions wasn't about protecting oil supplies, though I'm sure they could have been redirected to that purpose if a conflict arose. But how many were involved? Would it have been even 15% of the Air Force? I doubt it, given the prevalence of other missions they have.

Even if I apply these percentages to the first 2 categories (let's just say 35% army, 35% navy/marines, and 30% air force), and I get:

$136,078MM * (0*.35 + .1*.35 + .15*.3) = $10,886MM

So, I guess his low estimate might be there. But to me, that is his highest possible element. There might be some military construction budget to apply here, but certain not 1,000MM worth. And procurement is hard to estimate.

SIDE NOTE: at this point of writing this, I started scanning through to see if I could find a table listing a breakdown of the procurement categories. And I found on page 13 a listing of the incremental cost for Desert Shield for FY95: $1,048MM. And procurement was actually the biggest component by far. So my estimates on personnel and operations expenses may be too high.

And it gets better. Page 22 has a breakdown of operations & maintenance costs by line of service and department. Procurement breakdown by service is on page 24. And honestly, even with my aggressive allocations with this greater detail, I can barely get $10,000MM. And that's if you assume everyone in theater is there only to protect oil shipments, as opposed to other missions.

So no, I don't buy Koplow's other figures, either. But I don't have access to his detailed analysis.

His high-end estimates go beyond the direct military presence in the region to allocate all ("routine") US military spending to all US military objectives. The logic there is that all military spending has a military purpose, and to leave some of the (routine) spending unallocated would be to underestimate the cost of the objectives. His low-end estimate is based on a "partial cost" approach, attempting to measure the cost of "all operations that directly benefit the military’s objectives in a region. It is the sum of the force, equipment, and support costs that serve the region."

I think you might have missed the link to Koplow's report that I buried in my original post (to be clear, it's at http://www.earthtrack.net/earthtrack/library/GP%20Ch4_Defending%20Oil.pdf ). It has what I'd consider a significant level of detail describing his analysis, particularly exhibit A-4a in the appendix. (Note that the body of the report incorrectly refers to that exhibit as "4-1a".)


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - kinderowl - 08-07-2009 03:09 PM

(08-05-2009 06:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 06:21 PM)RiceDoc Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 05:27 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I will agree with you that some of the questions raised are a bit off-the-wall, but you asked about non-responsive answers. Here is one examply (not my favorite, becuase this is hardly a burning issue to me, but it is an easy one to see the evasiveness of the answer):
"95: The Government will pay ACORN and Americorps to sign up individuals for Government-run Health Care plan.
"TRUTH: Page 95 makes no mention of ACORN and Americorps; all it says is that the Commissioner can conduct outreach to vulnerable populations, making them aware of their options."
As I see it, there are three possibilities:
Case 1. The government will absolutely pay ACORN, Americorps, and the like.
Case 2. The government may or may not pay them, but likely will.
Case 3. The government will absolutely not pay them.
The case that is problematical is case 2 . . .
... If you are a skeptic like me, particularly when it comes to our government's ability to do anything well, those answers are not sufficient. I gather that Rice Doc is pretty much on that same page.
You are correct about that. Moreover, I tend to parse legal writing pretty closely. In the stated answer (and it was the one that jumped off the page the most for me too) there is NO denial of the truth of the assertion. All it does do is say that ACORN, et al are not specifically identified. Thus, there is nothing in that answer that denies case 1 or case 2 or affirmatively agrees with case 3. With such carefully crafted responses, I think it is reasonable to read it to be case 2, with a strong likelihood that case 1 will be the "resolution" to the "issue".

Nothing screws up a deal like having a couple of lawyers who actually read the documents, right?
Particularly when we use our legal training to take what it says word-for-word and translate that into what that means in real-world situations.

I suppose it comes down to a matter of trust.
If you trust government, then you have no problem with anything that is in this bill.
So, how much do I trust government? Zero, zip, nada.
I trust Exxon, or in this context an insurance company, far more than I trust the government. Why? Simple, if Exxon screws me, I can go to Shell, a whole lot easier than I can go to another government.

that's fine if you get some mediocre gas or the price is too high on this corner. not much of a good analogy for health care access for anyone in real need. just a for instance --if you're insurer gives you a royal screw job and you don't get access to care you have to have to live, you aren't going anywhere good, mister.

i'm not saying we should all be yipee i love and trust the government, but it would be silly to suggest that insurance companies are better.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - kinderowl - 08-07-2009 03:11 PM

(08-05-2009 09:13 PM)gsloth Wrote:  
(08-05-2009 01:00 PM)texd Wrote:  RE Marital/family therapy, the last employer based plan my employer offered from United -- basic PPO -- states in their "What works for you" booklet

Quote:We understand that finding the right kind of solution can make all the difference. Your behavioral health benefits include coverage for the following types of services:
  • Accute ipatient care
  • Residential treatement
  • Partial day treatment
  • Medication Management
  • Halfway facilities
  • Alcohol and drug dependency programs
  • Family, marital and outpatient therapy
  • Individual outpatient therapy

The only place that family therapy was covered by exclusions was that they don't pay for court-ordered mental health treatment unless pre-approved by them.

And our carrier before that (yes I'm a pack rat), Humana PPO, had no limitations on therapy except that they only paid for a combined 20 individual or joint sessions a year and that sessions could not last over 60 minutes each.

You're lucky, then. The behavioral coverage on my wife's policy (which we use) specifically excludes marital and family counseling, among a whole bunch of other stuff. And my wife works for the state government, which I'm sure lots of people assume get gold-plated benefits. Alas, it ain't always so. (Though the vacation schedule is nice. Nothing like a 4-day weekend involving MLK Day - because Lee-Jackson Day is celebrated on the preceding Friday.)

fifteen years ago it was confederate flag day and no MLK day. all change isn't bad, i guess.

edit. whoops, my bad. i forgot you're in virginia and not texas.


RE: Does anyone genuinely believe... - Owl 69/70/75 - 08-07-2009 03:18 PM

(08-07-2009 03:09 PM)kinderowl Wrote:  that's fine if you get some mediocre gas or the price is too high on this corner. not much of a good analogy for health care access for anyone in real need. just a for instance --if you're insurer gives you a royal screw job and you don't get access to care you have to have to live, you aren't going anywhere good, mister.
i'm not saying we should all be yipee i love and trust the government, but it would be silly to suggest that insurance companies are better.

My point is that there is no reason to suggest that government would be better, either. And the only reason to make a change is to get better.

If your insurance company screws you, you may have the option of paying for it yourself, or possibly finding another insurance company that will cover it, or suing. If your government screws you, you won't have those options. And make no mistake, your government will screw you as much as your insurance company will.

There are changes that would make things better. I'm a huge fan of the French approach. If you don't know how it works, here is a brief summary, which I'm pleased to have found in a Houston paper (not the Comical):

http://www.examiner.com/x-11804-Health-Care-Examiner~y2009m7d21-The-French-health-care-system-is-universal

What's on the table now is just not going to make things better.