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+---- Thread: Kerry Down in Latest ABC/Wash. Post Poll (/thread-217530.html)
- Ninerfan1 - 07-27-2004 09:31 AM
Down on EVERY issue. Not a good sign for Kerry, though I still say the polls don't mean much until after the conventions are done.
Quote:The critical convention season begins with John Kerry losing momentum at just the hour he'd like to be gaining it: President Bush has clawed back on issues and attributes alike, reclaiming significant ground that Kerry had taken a month ago.
Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes — honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others — have softened as well.
Overall race is still a dead heat Bush 49%; Kerry 48%.
<a href='http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_poll_040726.html' target='_blank'>Full Article</a>
- Bob Saccomano - 07-27-2004 10:16 AM
Ninerfan1 Wrote:Down on EVERY issue. Not a good sign for Kerry, though I still say the polls don't mean much until after the conventions are done.I'd agree the polls don't mean much now. Zogby (who conducts this particular poll via internet) has Kerry pulling ahead in the electoral college all of a sudden (he also has Kerry pulling even in Tennessee after trailing by 18 points last month, which gives you an indication of how exact the polling method is).
Quote:The critical convention season begins with John Kerry losing momentum at just the hour he'd like to be gaining it: President Bush has clawed back on issues and attributes alike, reclaiming significant ground that Kerry had taken a month ago.
Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes — honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others — have softened as well.
Overall race is still a dead heat Bush 49%; Kerry 48%.
<a href='http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_poll_040726.html' target='_blank'>Full Article</a>
They keep saying Kerry's big problem is "people don't know who he is". Does that mean people don't want to know? Because there's plenty of information and propaganda floating around out there for those who wish to consume it. I fail to see how, after 8 months of Kerry lovin' by the media, that people don't know who he is.
I don't remember Bush (although name-recognition may have helped him) having this problem. My guess is that it really isn't a problem for Kerry, and the pundits are trying to explain away his lack of sticking power by saying "people don't know him yet". Maybe they don't want to know.
An encouragement for Dems might be Kerry's track record of starting slow and closing strong. We'll see if that continues.
- DrTorch - 07-27-2004 11:54 AM
BearcatCarl Wrote:They keep saying Kerry's big problem is "people don't know who he is". Does that mean people don't want to know? Because there's plenty of information and propaganda floating around out there for those who wish to consume it. I fail to see how, after 8 months of Kerry lovin' by the media, that people don't know who he is.Didn't Oddball assure us that Kerry would be defining himself, starting about 6 weeks ago?
Fact is, either Kerry isn't doing it, or the press isn't covering it.
If it's the press, then it's because they don't believe his message will sell to the people. They have a vested interest in keeping this a close race as long as possible (see main events in pro-wresting for more info). So they are protecting Kerry from himself.
I don't think you can win an election like that.
- rickheel - 07-27-2004 03:19 PM
I think his "defining moment" will be his speech at the convention. It should be interesting to see if he stands for anything other than a pose in front of a camera.
- OUGwave - 07-27-2004 07:03 PM
These polls are meaningless, no matter who leads them. First, the polls are too far out, they haven't even reflected either convention yet. Second, because they are almost all within the margin of error, and third, because national polls don't matter.
One additional observation about the WaPo poll is that its a poll of registered voters and not likely voters. Most polls are polls of likely voters.
A note on Zogby's polls and the accuracy reflected therein...Zogby has been on fire all year dating back to the primaries. He was astoundingly right most of the time, and was a leading indicator for the trends in most states. It doesn't shock me to see that TN is a dead heat. The state has a relatively popular democractic governor and the population is becoming more urban-centered.
Another observation... Bush can run the table in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, and all the swing states he won last year and still lose the election if he loses NH, which he will. Bush NEEDS to pick up a state that HE DID NOT WIN in 2000.
Can anyone think of one where he has a shot? I can think of four...Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Pennsylvania and NM both have relatively popular democratic governers that will help GOTV (get out the vote) late in the campaign, and regarding NM, there's been as much of a ten-point swing in the hispanic vote to Kerry nationally. I think Bush has a shot in these four, but this is where I bet the Dems will use Bill Clinton to close the deal late.
This is exciting stuff.
- RandyMc - 07-27-2004 08:36 PM
OUGwave Wrote:It doesn't shock me to see that TN is a dead heat. The state has a relatively popular democractic governor and the population is becoming more urban-centered.Kerry has all but conceded Tennessee. The Democratic governor was elected by a good number of crossover voters and does not want to be too far out front in the campaign. He is going to be the person placing Tennessee's nominating votes into the convention
("MISTER/MADAME CHAIRPERSON, THE GREAT STATE OF TENNESSEE, LAND OF THREE DIVISIONS, FROM THE BANKS OF THE MIGHTY MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ROARING ASPHALT OF BRISTOL, HOME OF PRESIDENTS JACKSON, POLK AND JOHNSON, BIRTHPLACE OF ALVIN YORK, HERO OF THE GREAT WAR, PROUDLY WASTES IT'S NINE NOMINATING VOTES FOR THAT YANKEE CARPETBAGGING SCUMBAG THAT THROWS LIKE A GIRL AND HIS PRETTY BOY MUCK RAKING SCUM TRIAL LAWYER.........)
but he has been nowhere near the campaign except for a fundraiser earlier this year. In fact, he has further distanced himself this week from the campaign saying that Tennesseans will only vote for Kerry if he acts like he respects the state (tacit admission that Kerry does not give a rat's #$$ about the state or the south in general except Florida).