+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: Lounge (/forum-564.html)
+---- Forum: The Kyra Memorial Spin Room (/forum-540.html)
+---- Thread: Gallup Poll - It's a dead heat again (/thread-216695.html)
- MAKO - 10-04-2004 09:39 AM
Bush, Kerry in a draw, poll says
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Favorable public reaction to his performance in the first presidential debate has boosted Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and narrowed the contest with President Bush to a tie, according to a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.
After the first presidential debate, Bush and Kerry are both at 49% among likely voters.
Bush's lead of 8 percentage points before Thursday's debate evaporated in a survey taken Friday through Sunday. Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry are at 49% each. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%. (Related item: Latest poll results)
As it enters its final month, the presidential campaign is essentially where it began: too close to call.
"This is an even-up race that's going to be decided by everything that happens in the next 30 days," says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, calls the dead heat no surprise. "We always said this race would be tight — when we were up and when we were down," he says.
In the debate, focused on foreign policy and national security, Kerry argued that his position on Iraq had been consistent and called Bush's policies there misguided. The president was faulted afterward for his non-verbal communication: Reaction shots showed him scowling while Kerry was speaking.
The debate drew a TV audience of at least 62.5 million, according to the Nielsen ratings — a third more than watched the first presidential debate in 2000.
In the poll, Kerry:
• Reclaimed an advantage on the economy. Voters by 7 points say Kerry would handle the economy better than Bush. Before the debate, Bush was preferred on the issue for the first time, by 6 points.
Bush's 14-point advantage on handling Iraq was cut in half, to 7 points. He continues to hold a big advantage on handling terrorism, of 17 points, though that is down from 27 points in the Sept. 24-26 survey.
• Improved his standing as a potential commander in chief, though Bush is still preferred. By 5 points, voters say they trust Bush more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief. The president's advantage had been 16 points.
• Convinced more voters that he has a clear plan for Iraq, though still not a majority. In the poll, 41% say Kerry has a plan, up from 30% before the debate. For Bush, 49% say he has a clear plan, down from 52%.
• Was judged the winner of the debate by more than 2-to-1, 57% to 25%. By 13 points, voters say Kerry expresses himself more clearly than Bush. By 10 points, they say he is more intelligent.
With those glowing assessments come something candidates prefer to avoid: heightened expectations. By 48% to 41%, voters predict Kerry will do better than Bush in their second debate, on Friday in St. Louis.
In the 17 states seen by both sides as most competitive, Kerry has a slight lead, 47% to 45%. Before the debate, he lagged by 7 points in those battlegrounds.
For the first time, Nader's support has been adjusted to reflect only those states where he is on the ballot.
One reason for Kerry's rise was growing unease about Iraq. By 51% to 48%, voters said it was not a mistake to send U.S. troops there. That margin of approval is 10 points narrower than before the debate. And Iraq emerged as a more powerful issue in the campaign — equal to the economy, and second only to terrorism.
- Rebel - 10-04-2004 09:46 AM
Look what cheating can do.
- Tulsaman - 10-04-2004 09:46 AM
RebelKev Wrote:Look what cheating can do.well Jeb bush is up to no good in Florida.
- Rebel - 10-04-2004 09:48 AM
Tulsaman Wrote:What no good? Are you going to try that played-out tune of fixing elections again? Remember this, all recounts showed Bush to be the winner and ALL polling places that had problems were administered by Democrats.RebelKev Wrote:Look what cheating can do.well Jeb bush is up to no good in Florida.
- Tulsaman - 10-04-2004 09:49 AM
RebelKev Wrote:well this is what you are harping on with john kerry. So you sir are a "Flip Flopper"Tulsaman Wrote:What no good? Are you going to try that played-out tune of fixing elections again? Remember this, all recounts showed Bush to be the winner and ALL polling places that had problems were administered by Democrats.RebelKev Wrote:Look what cheating can do.well Jeb bush is up to no good in Florida.
- Rebel - 10-04-2004 09:53 AM
Your side tried to state Bush cheated in 2000. You were wrong.
The video clearly shows Kerry pulling something out of his jacket that was in violation of the debate terms. If Bush had done this, you would have had a **** fit. Hypocrisy, the modis operandi of the left.
- Tulsaman - 10-04-2004 09:54 AM
RebelKev Wrote:Your side tried to state Bush cheated in 2000. You were wrong.actually i didn't watch the debates i was watching the football game.
The video clearly shows Kerry pulling something out of his jacket that was in violation of the debate terms. If Bush had done this, you would have had a **** fit. Hypocrisy, the modis operandi of the left.
- Bob Saccomano - 10-04-2004 10:52 AM
Gallup-you mean the poll libs have tried to discredit as conservative biased because the founder is a Christian?
I've never trusted Gallup and Newsweek's sampling methods - Bush was NEVER up 8-11 points, and it's not an even race now.
Bush is up about 3 points Nationally, and many of the swing state are still up for grabs.
- MAKO - 10-04-2004 05:07 PM
Polling results can be changed by a lot of subtle differences and we also forget those +/- percentages at the end.
First, to be accurate, the poll should reflect demographically the turnout on election day. For example, regardless of the percentage of the total population that is age 18-25, they vote in far fewer numbers than people age 60-70. Thus, if the older voters comprise 20% of the total population but comprise 30% of the people actually voting, those older voters should comprise 30% of the people in your poll. I don't know if pollsters are actually this careful or if they just use the percentages in the population as a whole. This same principle should apply to age groups, racial groups, sex, etc.
Second, wording of a question can have an effect on the outcome as can the order in which the choices are presented. We've all gotten those fund-raising letters disguised as polls that ask questions like, "do you support President Bush or should the United States surrender to Osama bin Laden?" While that is an extreme example, you have to be very careful that no subtle bias slips into the wording of the question.
Third, even if your wording is excrutiatingly neutral, studies have shown that people are more likely to pick the first answer they hear. (If you give them multiple choices, they are more likely to pick "B" than any other answer). So, whatever candidate you make as the first choice, it will give him a bump of 2-5 percentage points. Ideally, half of the people you ask should have Kerry mentioned first in the poll and half should have Bush mentioned first. I seriously doubt that most pollsters are this careful.
Finally, that margin of error is very important and it's reporters who fail to recognize it. Let's say a poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%. Poll #1 has Kerry leading 54%-46% (I'm making it a total of 100% just for purposes of clarity). That will get reported as an 8 point lead. Poll #2 has it dead even at 50%-50%. Statistically, there is no difference at all between these two polls but you certainly wouldn't hear it reported that way. Reporters are as clueless about statistical analysis as most other folks.
- Bob Saccomano - 10-04-2004 05:33 PM
I think what it all boils down to is that the President needs to do a much better job at presentation for debate #2. I haven't heard one person, media or otherwise, frame Kerry's debate "win" in terms of a victory of positions or ideas.
If the President had simply looked fresher, and perhaps kept his face a little stonier during Kerry's responses, then the perception would've been one of a draw or a small Bush win.
The expectation game has taken a turn, as well. Kerry could not have presented himself any better at the debate (with help from the President). The President, by comparison, can only go up in terms of a visceral impression.
I look for a much better result this Friday.