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AI rankings of FCS schools - sigke - 10-23-2026 03:31 PM
The below are the AI results I mentioned in the normal FCS "Prospects" Real Data, Opinions, Analytics, Budgets, Revenue, Etc.. thread
Evaluating these 14 institutions for Conference USA (CUSA) requires adjusting the lens from the American Conference standard. CUSA essentially acts as the primary "FBS Welcome Mat" or "Ellis Island" of major college football, frequently onboarding transitioning FCS programs.
Because CUSA prioritizes geographic clustering to mitigate regional travel overhead, institutional readiness to scale infrastructure, and football alignment, its evaluation focuses heavily on location and budget baseline efficiency over top-50 television market size. Below is the strategic ranking of all 14 candidates, divided by tier viability and contrasted between full membership and football-only scenarios.
Tier 1: High Viability (The Premium Expansion Targets)
Tarleton State Texans
• Full Membership: Elite. Located in Stephenville, Texas, Tarleton sits directly in CUSA's cultural and geographic center. The athletic department features an exceptional, growing booster ecosystem and highly competitive resources. It represents an immediate full-member addition with minimal transition friction.
• Football-Only: High. A strong fallback, though CUSA would vastly prefer trapping their fast-growing basketball metrics and broad athletic framework into a full invitation.
UTRGV Vaqueros (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley)
• Full Membership: Elite. UTRGV sits on a literal goldmine of uncaptured television metrics down in the Rio Grande Valley. They possess a massive student enrollment and a newly launched football program operating with immense institutional backing. Adding them gives CUSA an airtight Texas geographic block alongside Sam Houston and UTEP (before UTEP's scheduled exit).
• Football-Only: Moderate. Their brand-new football operation would benefit from a home, but their institutional size means their basketball and Olympic inventory is highly attractive to a full-membership package.
Eastern Kentucky Colonels (EKU)
• Full Membership: High. EKU has been explicitly linked to CUSA expansion windows for years. Located in Richmond, Kentucky, they sit perfectly within a geographic pocket right next to Western Kentucky (WKU) and Middle Tennessee (MTSU). Their facilities and athletic spending are structurally prepared for the transition.
• Football-Only: Moderate. EKU's broad athletic footprint is localized to the region; dividing their football away makes less logistical sense for CUSA's travel goals.
Tier 2: Regional Boarder Liners (Strong Football, Geographic Hurdles)
South Dakota State Jackrabbits (SDSU)
• Full Membership: Moderate. From a pure football perspective, SDSU is an elite national powerhouse with multiple FCS national titles. However, their geographic positioning in Brookings, South Dakota creates an immense travel burden for CUSA's footprint, making full membership a logistical nightmare for non-revenue sports.
• Football-Only: Elite. This is the ideal home for SDSU. Taking them as a football-only member adds immediate playoff-caliber credibility to CUSA's football lineup, while sparing their Olympic teams from brutal, non-stop flights to the Deep South.
Illinois State Redbirds
• Full Membership: Moderate. Illinois State features a very competitive, balanced athletic department with solid facilities and a respected academic profile. Geographically, they offer a gateway into the Midwest, but they lack a natural nearby geographic travel partner within CUSA's current Southern orientation.
• Football-Only: High. Their strong, stable football infrastructure makes them a highly viable standalone football add if the league needs to reach scheduling security benchmarks.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (SFA)
• Full Membership: Moderate to High. SFA brings a built-in Texas geographic profile and a passionate regional backing. Their athletic department has historically proven they can fund competitive programs. However, recent institutional instability and conference shuffling mean they must solidify their financial foundations before climbing.
• Football-Only: Moderate. Valuable if CUSA needs an emergency Texas body, but they are generally viewed as a total-package institutional add or nothing.
Tier 3: Extreme Geographic Outliers (Impractical Full Fits)
Montana State Bobcats & Montana Grizzlies
• Full Membership: Low. Both programs represent absolute royalty in terms of FCS football attendance, ravenous fan bases, and elite media engagement out West. However, full membership is entirely impossible; flying volleyball or tennis teams from Missoula and Bozeman to Miami (FIU) or Virginia (Lynchburg/Liberty) would bankrupt their athletic budgets.
• Football-Only: High. If either school ever decides to pull the trigger on an FBS transition, a football-only deal in CUSA offers a viable stepping-stone home, assuming the financial payout can offset their extreme travel map.
South Dakota Coyotes & North Dakota Fighting Hawks
• Full Membership: Low. Similar to their peers in the upper plains, their exceptional competitive metrics are completely undermined by geographic isolation relative to CUSA's Southern core.
• Football-Only: Moderate. They offer tough, physical football properties, but they rank well behind SDSU in terms of raw national branding power and immediate FBS transition readiness.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (NAU)
• Full Membership: Low. Tucked away in Flagstaff, Arizona, they are completely isolated from CUSA's current footprint.
• Football-Only: Moderate. Only moves the needle if CUSA intends to aggressively revive a defunct Western wing alongside New Mexico State.
Cal Poly Mustangs
• Full Membership: Unviable. Located on the California coast, the travel mechanics are completely detached from CUSA reality. Furthermore, their football program has historically trailed the competitive curve required for a smooth FBS leap.
• Football-Only: Low. Offers very little geographic or competitive upside to the league's current alignment.
Tier 4: East Coast Cultural Mismatches
UT Chattanooga Mocs
• Full Membership: Moderate. Chattanooga sits right in CUSA's physical geographic footprint and features highly competitive athletic metrics. However, the institution is deeply entrenched in the Southern Conference (SoCon) ecosystem and lacks the massive, standalone financial runway required to trigger an aggressive FBS move.
• Football-Only: Low. Their infrastructure is built around a total-sports mid-major model.
William & Mary Tribe
• Full Membership: Low. While they are an elite academic institution with historical athletic prestige, their university mission is fundamentally mismatched with CUSA's operational identity. They are firmly committed to their East Coast regional alignment.
• Football-Only: Unviable. Completely outside their institutional profile.
Expansion Suitability Matrix for Conference USA in screenshot below
[attachment=12474]
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - TOPSTRAIGHT - 10-23-2026 04:13 PM
Thanks for posting!
Some quick notes on AI's educated opinion:
UTRGV is not FBS transition eligible till 2029 and all sports travel would really add to already high CUSA travel costs. FB-only? A Better option if adding this school.
EKU. Tier one? Not even close. Very doubtful to be considered at this time. As shown in the realignment thread--they are at an all-time low right now in regards to stadium(4-5 yrs away), attendance(62nd in fcs), and competitiveness(last fcs playoff win 1994).
SDSU FB-only should be in Tier One. Top prospect along with Tarleton.
Many of those listed above have zero interest in FBS--Chatty, Wm@M, NAU.
****************************************************************
It's interesting to see what AI "thinks" and do some comparisons but for a more complete evaluation along with lots of verified data and opinions go to:
https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-971871-page-76.html
Since June-2023>> 3,040 replies and Over 190,000 views
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - SlyFox - 10-23-2026 04:49 PM
A couple more notes:
- "Tarleton sits directly in CUSA's cultural and geographic center" made me laugh out loud. Much like UTRGV, it is not close to any current CUSA member. And if NMSU bolts which would likely create the opportunity for the Texans, they would be nearly as big of an outlier as UT-RGV.
- While UTRGV's football program couldn't be a football member until 2029, they could join the league as earlier as 2027. They have been Division I for decades.
- While EKU has the geography in its favor, that is the extent of their candidacy.
- Illinois State loves them some Mo Valley and have shown minimal interest in even the nearby MAC.
- In regard to SFA, "recent institutional instability and conference shuffling mean they must solidify their financial foundations before climbing". Actually their recent institutional changes is what makes them a viable candidate. They are the candidate with them most cash headed their way. UTRGV is already well-funded.
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - sigke - 10-23-2026 05:09 PM
(10-23-2026 04:13 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote: SDSU FB-only should be in Tier One. Top prospect along with Tarleton.
I think the reason it ranked SDSU as Tier 2 is because the Tiers were based on full membership. If you notice, it ranked South Dakota State elite if football only.
The attachment I included is the matrix it created, where it doesn't have "tiers" and simply rates them for full membership and football only membership
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - TOPSTRAIGHT - 10-23-2026 05:17 PM
SFA is trending upward that is certain.
Of course they started out way "behind".
Budget, attendance, and facilities woefully trailed G6 minimums. They are really making strides.
New leadership along with now (3yrs) being part of the University of Texas System has made all the difference. The Texas economy gives them a strong base along with plenty of high school graduates. Construction on campus is at a high level.
Still--Tarleton is way ahead--but the fact that SHSU is Only 97 miles away is a huge advantage for their CUSA candidacy.
True Fact: CUSA gave SFA a membership invite circa~2021. They said NO. SFA just was Not ready--and they knew it.
Now? Not the first choice--but for sure more qualified than five years ago.
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - SlyFox - 10-24-2026 08:56 AM
Five years ago, Tarleton was a mediocre D2 school in the middle of nowhere. A few years of capital-intensive help from a major university system can have a huge impact. That's exactly what is happening right now in Nacogdoches.
The return of the Batlle of the Piney Woods would be a huge deal for the Sammy folks. The game was played annually in Reliant/NRG Stadium until Sam's arrival in CUSA.
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - caribbeanhen - 10-24-2026 09:10 AM
No Montana ?
Joined at the hip with Montana State
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - TOPSTRAIGHT - 10-24-2026 09:40 AM
(10-24-2026 09:10 AM)caribbeanhen Wrote: No Montana ?
Joined at the hip with Montana State
Montana is Fourth on the list.
See CUSA Realignment board. AI mistaken IMO to leave them out.
It's interesting to see what AI "thinks" and do some comparisons but for a more complete evaluation along with lots of verified data and opinions go to:
https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-971871-page-76.html
Since June-2023>> 3,040 replies and Over 190,000 views...
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - Ewglenn - 10-25-2026 10:42 AM
The schools I’d be okay adding:
Tarleton State
SFA
Chattanooga
EKU
WCU
RE: AI rankings of FCS schools - sigke - 10-26-2026 02:18 PM
Montana and Montana St are listed together. the AI had the exact same thing to say about both schools, so it lumped them together.
It did the same thing for North Dakota and South Dakota.