(10-20-2025 08:15 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Good find, although I am dubious of the source.

From the article: Ukraine has ramped up its drone attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities and pipelines since August, with Bloomberg estimating that roughly one in three Russian refineries has been hit.

One way to measure strikes effectiveness include observing volume and revenue of oil shipped by Russia. For example, one source states:
1. "In September, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues saw a 4% month-on-month decline to EUR 546 mn per day — the lowest they have been since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

2. "In September 2025, Russian tax revenues from oil & gas exports recorded a 26% year-on-year reduction. However, there was a 15% rebound month-on-month, driven chiefly by changes in the timing of Export Duty collections, rather than by significant increases in production or upstream taxes. Gas revenues remain especially weak, with export volumes to Europe sharply curtailed and domestic regulated prices keeping margins low."

3. "Russian revenues in September 2025 are half of what they were in September 2022 — despite volumes witnessing a mere 5% decline, in this same comparison window."
https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

Putin is learning Russia is not immune to a war of attrition.

(10-20-2025 08:38 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Crimea’s fuel supply just got taken out by the Ukrainians and it burnt for three days. Life is about to get hard for the Russians that flooded in after the Russian annexation. And the Ukrainians have cut off the supply lines except for the Kerch bridge. It’s stare down time now.

(10-20-2025 09:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 08:38 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Crimea’s fuel supply just got taken out by the Ukrainians and it burnt for three days. Life is about to get hard for the Russians that flooded in after the Russian annexation. And the Ukrainians have cut off the supply lines except for the Kerch bridge. It’s stare down time now.

Russia was building a rail line in occupied territory. I don't know that they have taken that out.

If I were the Ukrainians, I would be figuring out a way to take out Russia's rail infrastructure in the area around Ukraine. Russia's roads are horrible. They depend on rail.

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

(10-20-2025 09:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 08:38 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Crimea’s fuel supply just got taken out by the Ukrainians and it burnt for three days. Life is about to get hard for the Russians that flooded in after the Russian annexation. And the Ukrainians have cut off the supply lines except for the Kerch bridge. It’s stare down time now.

Russia was building a rail line in occupied territory. I don't know that they have taken that out.

If I were the Ukrainians, I would be figuring out a way to take out Russia's rail infrastructure in the area around Ukraine. Russia's roads are horrible. They depend on rail.

(10-20-2025 01:41 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 09:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 08:38 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Crimea’s fuel supply just got taken out by the Ukrainians and it burnt for three days. Life is about to get hard for the Russians that flooded in after the Russian annexation. And the Ukrainians have cut off the supply lines except for the Kerch bridge. It’s stare down time now.

Russia was building a rail line in occupied territory. I don't know that they have taken that out.

If I were the Ukrainians, I would be figuring out a way to take out Russia's rail infrastructure in the area around Ukraine. Russia's roads are horrible. They depend on rail.

They took that rail out a while back. Struck a fuel transport and the Russians have not been able to clean up the damage. It is within easy striking distance of drones. They do strike RR infrastructure and just like the oil infrastructure they wait until the Russians repair it and then hit it again.

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

(10-20-2025 01:44 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:41 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 09:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 08:38 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  Crimea’s fuel supply just got taken out by the Ukrainians and it burnt for three days. Life is about to get hard for the Russians that flooded in after the Russian annexation. And the Ukrainians have cut off the supply lines except for the Kerch bridge. It’s stare down time now.

Russia was building a rail line in occupied territory. I don't know that they have taken that out.

If I were the Ukrainians, I would be figuring out a way to take out Russia's rail infrastructure in the area around Ukraine. Russia's roads are horrible. They depend on rail.

They took that rail out a while back. Struck a fuel transport and the Russians have not been able to clean up the damage. It is within easy striking distance of drones. They do strike RR infrastructure and just like the oil infrastructure they wait until the Russians repair it and then hit it again.

why wait ... why not hit whilst repairing, Ja?!

(10-20-2025 01:49 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

To be fair----Trumps behavior is EXACTLY why they might. We all know there isnt enough in the Baltics right now to stop a determined Russian invasion of the Baltics.

Here's how it would go. Russia conquers Ukraine and gets the peace they want (puppet state, virtually no army, and no weapons capable of hitting any further than 40 miles). Russia gathers on the border of the Baltics for "an exercise" (sound familiar yet?). They pour across the border in a massive mechanized assault led largely by huge swarms of small FPV drones that attack the local air bases, electical nodes, communication hubs, radar installations, and military armored vehicles. NATO at this time has little defense against this type of attack---and they cant really react quickly with troops because the columns will be hit by FPV swarms before they get within 40 miles of the front. Long range missile strikes on NATO air bases deeper in Europe will slow air response.

NATO will be off balance, but within a few days will have complete air supremacy---and will begin hitting Russian forward formations and will use longer range air launched missiles to hit Russian supply chains behind the lines. Russia will be looking to achieve their goals (close the Suwalki gap and to take most or all of the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia and will quickly vote to annex the regions). They know they cant beat NATO long term---so once NATO regains its footing and finally has enough forces to halt the Russian advance---the Russians are not going to wait for the inevitable counterattack. They will launch tactical nukes on NATO formations massing for a counterattack in or near the Baltic states. NATO will respond in kind hitting Russian concentrations in the Baltic States (but not inside Russia). NATO will receive an ultimatum from Russia----accept an immediate cease fire at along the existing lines of contact----or fight a nuclear war on your own territory---that might (and probably would) escalate to a strategic nuclear war. They will be banking on Trump (and the rest of the EU) not wanting to trade LA or Paris for Estonia or Latvia. Its a pretty good bet in my opinion.

My point is---Russia doesnt have to be capable of defeating NATO to get what they want. And they currently have a significant advantage in modern drone warfare---not just in experience---but they already have huge stockpiles of the weapons and produce thousands of them daily. If they can get most of what they want quickly enough---they can "win" the war to the extent they need to. But a fully armed million man Ukrainian Army that is part of NATO pretty much stops that whole plan from even being an option....which is why its Ukraine first---then NATO's Baltic states.

(10-20-2025 01:47 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

You are right about that Stink. The Russian rich people. Otherwise known as oligarchs although that is not really accurate. More like lieutenants in the mafia. Right now Putin is the Don but there is a lot of discontent in the ranks.

(10-20-2025 02:09 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:47 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

You are right about that Stink. The Russian rich people. Otherwise known as oligarchs although that is not really accurate. More like lieutenants in the mafia. Right now Putin is the Don but there is a lot of discontent in the ranks.

which has been 'our' point from day one, mon frere ... .... and there's more behind it, but that's the only thingy that matters on our side of the pond...

I can't buy into the eradication of old to create new weaponry (we're going to build the new, regardless ... blow up the old shite if not able or use), when we could invest so much more value into those south/north by further developing our hemisphere...

our species builds ... it's what we do best...

(10-20-2025 02:18 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 02:09 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:47 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(10-20-2025 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Hitting the oil and gas facilities is the best way to get Putin to seriously consider a reasonable negotiated settlement. Thats his bread and butter money producer. Sounds like we are probably giving Ukraine intelligence on the disposition of Russian anti-air assets---which allows the slow propeller driven drones a better chance of actually reaching their targets. Personally, I think Trump should have kept the Tomahawk sale to Ukraine moving forward in order to create time sensitive pressure on Putin to become more reasonable in his demands in order to get a peaceful solution before those Tomahawks and Taurus missiles start arriving. lol---even the talking head propagandists in Russia actually agree with me on this point.

https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1980187699056414786

agree ... which is why I've always been curious how y'all ever thought they'd invade further...

there's a reason this is still happening ... the rich continue to prosper...

it's never been about the people...


cue, mon shere...

You are right about that Stink. The Russian rich people. Otherwise known as oligarchs although that is not really accurate. More like lieutenants in the mafia. Right now Putin is the Don but there is a lot of discontent in the ranks.

which has been 'our' point from day one, mon frere ... .... and there's more behind it, but that's the only thingy that matters on our side of the pond...

I can't buy into the eradication of old to create new weaponry (we're going to build the new, regardless ... blow up the old shite if not able or use), when we could invest so much more value into those south/north by further developing our hemisphere...

our species builds ... it's what we do best...

Unfortunately our species ‘wars’ too. And we are just about as good at it.

My attention from the beginning was to not award it. To make the cost so high that those looking at envy at their neighbors would think long and hard before engaging in it.

(10-20-2025 04:52 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  It appears now that Trump was bluffing, again, and never considered sending Tomahawks to NATO to provide to Ukraine. Reports are that Trump once again demanded Ukraine surrender and became angry when Zelensky refused. Cursing, shouting and throwing maps followed according to sources. I don’t know if these sources are legit or not but it does sound believable. Trump is definitely on Putin’s side in this. I do not know why but the look isn’t good.
America once again abandons the closest thing to allies we have. I guess we should just build a bigger wall and wait for the imminent beginning of the Great War against America.